Yankees Raise Ceiling With Corey Kluber
The Yankees’ big free agent signing last week came when the team brought back DJ LeMahieu for six years and $90 million. That deal raises both the floor and the ceiling in the Bronx next season. LeMahieu is a dependable player who should be average at a minimum, ensuring the infield doesn’t have a black hole, while a repeat of his performance since the beginning of 2019 would elevate the Yankees’ chances of a great season. The Yankees’ other signing last week came late Friday in the form of Corey Kluber. Kluber does less to shore up the Yankees’ floor given his recent injury history; indeed, there’s a non-zero chance Kluber doesn’t contribute much to the Yankees at all this year. What Kluber and his two Cy Young awards do manage to do is substantially raise the Yankees’ ceiling, as the team should face a tough battle in the AL East.
Jeff Passan was first with the news that Kluber would be signing with the Yankees for one year and $11 million. Kluber’s contract sits between my $9 million prediction and the $12 million median crowdsource estimate from our top 50 free agent ranking. Despite making just eight starts over the past two seasons, including just a single inning last year, a couple factors worked in Kluber’s favor in securing a decent pillow contract. The first is that Kluber threw for scouts and impressed. The second relates more specifically to the Yankees.
1/When it comes to Kluber, no team will have a better understanding of his physical condition than the #Yankees. The mound session today was at Cressey Sports Performance. The rehab is being done by Eric Cressey, who also is the NYY’s director of health and performance.
— Joel Sherman (@Joelsherman1) January 13, 2021
When there’s not much of a recent track record to go on, it probably helps to have someone inside the training process who can provide an accurate assessment of a pitcher’s health. Even with that inside information, though, it’s difficult to have too high of expectations for Kluber this season. Even in Kluber’s last good season in 2018, when his 5.5 WAR was seventh among all pitchers, the velocity on his sinker was down a couple ticks from its peak in 2014; it lost a little velocity in each subsequent season, falling to the 92 mph mark we saw in his abbreviated 2019 campaign.
Now, Kluber doesn’t need a huge fastball to be successful. The pitch has always been a setup for his better offerings. In 2017 and ’18, he threw his cutter and curve more than 50% of the time. Those are the pitches he uses to so successfully get batters out. For his career, batters have -7 wRC+ against his curve with a 51% strikeout rate and a 1% walk rate. The curve is what’s most responsible for those Cy Youngs, not a low-90s sinker. That said, Kluber will be 35 years old in April. Age and recent results work against him, so a full recovery will be of utmost importance to his success.
As for projections, Steamer forecasts Kluber to be slightly above-average; ZiPS says he’ll be a bit better than that. The bigger question is how many innings he’ll provide. His 2019 injury (a comebacker that fractured a bone in his arm) was more of a freak occurrence; his return that season was complicated by an oblique strain. The 2020 injury to his shoulder appears more likely to linger, but his throwing session earlier this month alleviated at least some of those doubts. Kluber avoided surgery and his rehab has gone well, but for the Yankees, he is likely more of a lottery ticket who the team hopes turns into a number two starter behind Gerrit Cole than a pitcher the club believes it can count on every fifth day.
The Yankees already have a really good team. Re-signing LeMahieu means they’re likely the best team in the American League, at least on paper. They are already stacked in the bullpen. It’s the rotation that’s the potential weakness, though signing Kluber doesn’t really change that. Here are our current Depth Chart projections for the Yankees’ rotation after signing Kluber.
| Name | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gerrit Cole | 204 | 12 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 3.56 | 3.5 | 5.2 |
| Jordan Montgomery | 147 | 8.9 | 2.9 | 1.6 | 4.48 | 4.59 | 2.1 |
| Corey Kluber | 152 | 9.5 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 4.2 | 4.23 | 2.5 |
| Deivi García | 120 | 9.1 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 5.06 | 5.2 | 1.1 |
| Luis Severino | 101 | 10 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 3.91 | 3.97 | 2.1 |
| Domingo Germán | 100 | 9.1 | 3.1 | 1.8 | 4.88 | 4.97 | 1 |
| Clarke Schmidt | 56 | 8.1 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 4.91 | 5.02 | 0.6 |
| Michael King | 38 | 7.9 | 3 | 1.6 | 4.79 | 4.92 | 0.4 |
| Jhoulys Chacín | 19 | 7.2 | 3.8 | 1.9 | 5.62 | 5.76 | 0.1 |
| Nick Nelson | 9 | 9.5 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 4.74 | 4.92 | 0.1 |
| Total | 947 | 9.7 | 3 | 1.6 | 4.36 | 4.41 | 15.1 |
Purely based on the projections, that is a really good rotation, though Cole is doing a lot of the heavy lifting. Right now, the Yankees are heavily reliant on Cole having a strong, healthy season. Without him, the team’s starters would be in the bottom third of baseball. The Yankees probably don’t need a healthy Kluber to get to the playoffs, and even if they drop to the Wild Card, Cole would be the likely starter, but Kluber has the potential to be a solid number two behind him in the postseason. That’s essentially what the Yankees are hoping and paying for, but in looking at this rotation, it’s obvious it still needs some help in the form of reliable innings.
Jordan Montgomery made 10 solid starts after returning from Tommy John surgery, but gave up a few too many homers and didn’t pitch deep into games. Deivi García made a promising debut last year, but turns 22 years old in May and has never pitched more than 111.1 innings as a professional. Severino is coming off surgery. Domingo Germán is coming off a suspension. Clarke Schmidt is intriguing, but he might not have the second offspeed offering necessary to be a consistent starter. Meanwhile, Michael King hasn’t shown much in the majors, Jhoulys Chacín has struggled tremendously the past two years, and Nick Nelson struggled in relief last season.
As currently constructed, this is a team heavily reliant on its lineup, its bullpen, and Gerrit Cole. That might be enough to make the playoffs and it might be enough to take the division, but even after losing Blake Snell and Charlie Morton, the Rays probably aren’t going away. The Blue Jays were good last year and seemed poised to make a big addition or two this winter. Corey Kluber is exactly the type of addition a team with few holes and a ton of money should make, but the Yankees haven’t bought a ton of reliable innings to this point.
Bringing back Masahiro Tanaka probably makes the most sense, given that after Tanaka, there are a boatload of less-reliable pitchers like former Yankee James Paxton, but to make any further additions, the Yankees are going to have to go over the competitive balance tax. They are still about $50 million under the payroll they would have run in a normal 2020 season, but they have yet to signal a willingness to return to that level. The Yankees will probably be fine, and Kluber represents solid upside risk for them, but if the 2021 season falls apart, it’s probably because they didn’t get more certainty in their rotation.
Craig Edwards can be found on twitter @craigjedwards.
If the Yankees want to stay under the CBT, then they will have to pay another team to get them to take a bad or just expensive contract. I think the Kubler signing is their bet for this year–that he will recover some of the old magic. The problem with trading young and cheaper talent to pair with a bad contract is that they will cannibalize their future. They don’t need another starter to make the playoffs–they might need another one to go deep into it, and you are talking about maybe 4/5 meaningful additional starts. Is that worth blowing through the CBT, or burning a lot of assets? As to bringing back Tanaka, is he really the #2-caliber pitcher at this point?
To answer your question, no, he’s not really a #2. But he’s been really great in the postseason for his career, which makes him a valuable mid-rotation pitcher for the Yankees. And I suspect that their plan for that #2 spot is to see what materializes out of their current options. One of Severino and Kluber likely locks that role down by the end of the year, and even German or Garcia may have that upside.
Yeah, I think the argument for Tanaka is that he can be fairly reliably expected to give them a bunch of decent-quality innings. He’d likely start the season as a #2/#3 type by default, with the bet being that by the end of the year Kluber and Severino will have pushed him back to at least #4.
And other than Bauer, are there any free agent pitchers who would be clear upgrades over Tanaka? The various FG projections have him at ~150IP and ~2.5 WAR, which ain’t bad. Not a guy you’d want as your #2 if you have serious postseason ambitions, to be sure, but unless NY signs Bauer or pulls off a big surprise trade, they’re not getting that type of guy anyway. And in the “chew up innings while the injured, bounce-back, and young guys establish themselves” camp, you could do a lot worse than Tanaka.
I like the idea behind this signing in a vacuum, but if they’re really intent on remaining below the CBT, then I don’t know how you can spend the majority of your remaining space on a flyer like this? I have to think more pitching moves are coming, but unless they get really creative, I don’t see how they remain below the tax line.
Why? They’re loaded with potential 4th/5th starter types, which is what you’re going to get for around what Kluber got (maybe minus a couple million) if you want someone reliable. It makes perfect sense to gamble on someone with some upside. I think it was a great use of their space, even if it was a couple million over what they would have wanted to pay, and/or they didn’t get a high-priced 2022 option on him.
Twins just signed JA Happ for 1 year, $8M. I think I’d rather have that signing if I’m the Yankees FO and I’m mandated to stay below the CBT
Those starting pitching projections for the Yankees seem overly optimistic to me. To wit:
Kluber: 36.2 innings the past 2 years
Montgomery: 75.3 innings the past 3 years
Severino: 12 innings the past 3 years and expected to miss a good portion of 2021
German: Missed all of 2020 though obviously not injury related. But there still has to be uncertainty.
Garcia: Has talent but I imagine the Yankees will baby him a bit.
As for the signing itself, there’s obvious upside. But given the Yankees WS aspirations, I’m surprised that they didn’t target more of a sure thing, rather than adding another huge question mark to the rotation.
Regular season innings are cheap. Playoff innings are expensive.
Don’t sleep on Miguel Yajure. He’s a solid #3/4 as he develops, and belongs in the back end of the rotation now. I suspect he’ll be a 50 FV on Eric Longenhagen’s updated Yankees list, and he may be above Clarke Schmidt in the eyes of some right now. I think we’re all going to get sick of the unverifiable “people raved about how he looked at the alternate site” stories but the word is that Yajure looked really, really good. I’ve also read in some places that he’s a guy that other teams have asked for in trade discussions, which always perks my ears up a bit.
Sure it was just missed data (or your timeframe should have been the last 2 years) , but Severino pitched over 190 very effective innings in both ’17 and ’18, then missed much of ’19 as the team tried to rehab him through an injury that eventually led to TJ. Should he rebound in the 2nd half he may be the #2 for the playoffs. Emphasis on “IF”, just like many of the others.
I’m aware of Severino’s history. The thing is…recovery from TJ is almost impossible to predict. Both in terms of how long it takes to recover as well as how someone will pitch once they come back. One thing that is sure though: once Severino does come back, the Yankees aren’t going to push him hard. So if he pitches like a #2, it will be in much shorter outings and perhaps with extra rest.
I might disagree on the “impossibility” of TJ recovery prediction. Yes the timeline varies some, but it is quite a bit more predictable (with some individual variance) than recovery from TOS or shoulder surgery for example. We’ve seen plenty of guys come back from TJ in about 15 months or so (Sevy’s was in late Feb 2020) so July 2021 would be 16 months out. Plenty of time to ramp up on the limited workload you describe and be ready to go up to 6 innings by October, “If he pitches like a # 2… Should he rebound in the 2nd half”. Its always ifs and maybes.
Yeah, maybe he comes back and wows everyone, but I’ll take the under on 152 good innings from Kluber. If TOR signs Tanaka, that’ll be interesting…
I agree with what you’re saying about the uncertainty but you can’t say “Luis severino 12 innings past three years when 21’ hasn’t happened. Yes he missed all of 2019 and 2020 but he was top 5 mlb pitcher in 2018 and given the way they handled him in 2019 (delaying the inevitable) and the shortened 2020 explains the long absence
I was thinking the exact opposite. They’re loaded with 4th/5th starter types (some with real upside too). Why pay $10M for a reliable guy like that when they have no shortage of guys who can fill that role? Gambling a bit on someone like Kluber makes a lot more sense given their roster makeup.
Considering that many of their competitors in the AL have taken a step back I am not convinced they need more of anything. They’re the clear favorites. They could use another source of reliable innings and obviously better pitchers are better but they could also be fine with a Joey Lucchesi type addition too.
I wouldn’t say the Yanks are clear favorites. This is like 2018 when everyone said the Rays would be lucky to win 65 games after trading so many “established” folks to make room for the young guys….they won 90. With the prospects the Rays have on the cusp of MLB I expect them to continue to be one of the favorites for the next 5 years at least. Franco, Brujan, McClannahan, Patino, McKay, (Walls > Wendle), and more unheralded guys like Joe Ryan (he of king k/9 in the minors) are all going to be impactful players sometime this upcoming year. They traded folks to make room for the best farm system in the game (and to shed salary ofc too, but that was not the motivating factor unlike the Darvish pure salary dump).
Yanks are always overrated.
I was with you until the last sentence, the Yankees are usually rated as one of the top teams in the league, and they usually end up as one of the top teams in the league
It’s kind of ridiculous that the Yankees are running lower payrolls than they did 15 years ago. No excuses.
That said, given that every other AL team except the White Sox seems to be happy with not improving, where is the pressure for them to really go overboard?
Not really. In 2005, the Yankees had a $208M payroll and the Orioles (?!) were second at $123M. That held until Detroit and NY Mets jumped to $138M in 2008. Then the Red Sox, Cubs, and Phillies jumped just below NY Mets’ $152M in 2009. The Dodgers jumped in at $178M in 2012 and $241M in 2013.
As other commenters have pointed out, it’s good to have the league at parity and not have NYY at 70% more payroll than the #2 team. Maybe that’s unfair in a way, since the Yankees are the largest revenue producer, but it makes the league more interesting rather than having one behemoth and 29 other teams trying to be the Rays.
As far as the NYY this year, I think it’s good they’re trying to stay under the CBT. This forces them to try to trade Ottavino to create CBT space.
Even if you think increasing payroll parity (which is of course not necessarily linked to actual parity) is a good thing, achieving it by depressing league-wide payrolls in a time of unprecedented increase in franchise valuations (ignoring 2020 for a bit) seems like a pretty blunt instrument, and a self-serving one for owners.
Valuation is not liquidity.
Why? Payroll at 55% of revenues as it was in 2001 – 2003 causes MLB to lose money. Payroll at 49% of revenue in 2004 allowed MLB to make a 5% profit margin. MLB then was able to keep payroll at 45 – 46% of revenue until 2012 and then turn a profit of 7.5% – 10% with 2011 checking in at 5.5% for some reason. MLB then kept payroll at 42-44% of revenue until the FA austerity of 2017 & 2018 brought payroll down to 41% in 2019. Income has jumped to 13% of revenue.
For all of Ben Clemens’ talk of MLB teams as “cash cows”, this has only become true very recently. And the increase (not sure why it’s “unprecedented”) in valuations has come as a result of improving profit margins, creating MLBAM, and achieving records in league-wide attendance. MLB will probably have to drive up its payroll in the new CBA with MLBPA since it has gotten rather low.
Here’s Warren Buffet on why he would never own a sports team:
“Professional sports teams are a hassle… fans would complain that you aren’t spending enough when the team loses.”
And also:
“Well, they’re kind of like art. I mean, they go up in value because there’s just a lot of rich people that want to own one, and there’s more rich people than there are teams. So they compete for ’em. Some of them don’t make much money, as you know, but if you’ve got a lot of money, what are you gonna do with it? Some people buy art, some people buy houses, some people buy boats. I invest, but I’m different.”
“MLB then kept payroll at 42-44% of revenue until the FA austerity of 2017 & 2018 brought payroll down to 41% in 2019. Income has jumped to 13% of revenue. ”
Not sure where you are getting the income numbers, but didn’t even the MLBPA admit during the 2017/18 season that teams were still spending over 50% of revenue on players?
Hey, Melvin Mora and Miguel Tejada weren’t cheap! Too bad the Orioles didn’t have much else on that team.
From my perspective as a non-Yankees fan, it’s great that they haven’t increased payroll beyond their buy-everything years. They’re going to have either the highest payroll or the second highest luxury tax number in MLB depending on what the Dodgers do and they’re going to be the favorite in the AL. It’s a good thing for the league, if not for Yankees fans.
As a Yankee fan I’d agree with this too. And longer term looking to the next CBT it may be a benefit to them to have more teams pushing on the lux tax salary threshold, encouraging a bit more ceiling there going forward. The last CBT offered little growth in those numbers.
This may be their best short term opportunity to slip under the CBT to reset their tax rate – it won’t happen in ’22 with only Kluber and Ottavino (+ maybe Sanchez if he has another debacle season) going off the ledger and a lot of arbs moving up the timeline. But they do need more “reliability” in the rotation so they could easily (I’d say even likely, if not now then with 2nd half adds) tick over the threshold a bit. They do have a decent amount of young upside possibilities there though – which for most clubs would be considered an asset, not mostly a source of uncertainty.
I am expecting some kind of trade for help (thought they might have gone for Musgrove) since they have to open roster space for LaMahieu and Kluber and have too many pitching prospects not likely to help this season on the 40 man.
As a Yankee fan, it’s great for me too. It’s so much more enjoyable to watch their young players play (and succeed, in many cases) than it is to see them try to buy a championship every year.
The Yankees season isn’t going to depend on Kluber.
It will depend on Cole not pulling an Altuve.
(There’s the matter of the sticky stuff, after all. Pirates fans might feel a bit better knowing of that.)
Kluber is connected to the sticky stuff too. Nice video on the matter “Gerrit Cole is Cheating and MLB Wants to Stop Him” on the Baseball Doesn’t Exist YouTube channel.
With that deep bullpen, I’m still surprised the Yankees don’t commit to using Loaisiga as a two-times through the order guy (either with or without an opener). He threw more strikes last year, has good splits plus his FIP was pretty much identical to Tanaka. Cole, plus upside of Monty, Cruz, Kluber and a Loaisiga bullpen day plus whatever you get from the Severino, German and Schmidt trio doesn’t look too bad, although you could make an argument for German and Schmidt to be the bulk guys based on your opinion of them, but they just haven’t shown anything recently.
The biggest problem with Loaisiga is that he can’t stay healthy. He’s better off in the bullpen, with the option to stretch him out if the rotation gets thin.
Severino is healthy starting in the MLB as of September of last year. I think there’s a good chance he’s an at least above average starter this year
A one-year $11 million dollar gamble on 35 year-old Kluber seems like a coin flip for the regular season, but Corey has not been a solid playoff pitcher since 2016.