Your 2014 Royals, Now With a Second Baseman
In a sense, the Yankees are back to being the Yankees. They offered a ton of money to sign Brian McCann. They offered a ton of money to sign Jacoby Ellsbury. There’s still talk they might offer a ton of money to try to sign Masahiro Tanaka. Yet the Yankees are still a team in need of an actual regular second baseman. They’ve reached this point because they were outbid on their own Robinson Cano by the Mariners, and now they’ve been outbid on Omar Infante by the Royals, who have a shiny new second baseman at a four-year commitment worth a little over $30 million.
You could say that there’s a revenge angle, since earlier in the offseason the Yankees signed Carlos Beltran with the Royals hot in pursuit. But this is less about vengeance and more about plugging an immediate hole, with a perfectly adequate player. Used to be I thought it was all but a given that the Royals would trade Billy Butler for Nick Franklin. Now they need their own DH, and they have their own second baseman. It’s a step forward for a team that would really really like to experience this year’s playoffs.
A thing about players in or near the bigs is that, if you squint, all of them can look like they’re pretty good. A few years ago, Emilio Bonifacio put up a .360 OBP, and he’s not an old player. He can still make a lot happen, and he was productive for the Royals down the stretch. Johnny Giavotella, meanwhile, has been good in Triple-A, and his big-league opportunity has been limited over three seasons. Had the Royals gone into the 2014 season with those two as options at second, there would’ve been some reason for hope.
With Infante, though, there’s no need for squinting. He’s coming off a WAR over 3. Before that was a WAR close to 3. Before that was a pair of WARs over 2. He’s been a roughly average hitter playing a solid second base, and he’s still in his low 30s. It’s obvious that Infante is fine. He should be counted on to be fine, at least for a year or two. He’s almost boring in his adequacy.
This is the Royals’ second four-year contract of the offseason, and both those deals are pretty similar. Infante’s getting four years and a bit over $30 million, while Jason Vargas is getting four years and $32 million. Both of them are getting paid to be average, and both of them have been more or less average for some time now. In some ways, Infante is just an infield, position-player version of Vargas. Infante’s good at making contact, and Vargas is good at throwing his changeup, but neither player ever really wows you. They just do something along the lines of what they’re supposed to do, and when games are finished, you reflect and think “yeah that guy’s been all right.” There’s an argument to be made that Infante’s a little better, but Vargas is younger and we needn’t concern ourselves with all the little details.
Four years is a long commitment, yeah. The Royals are trying to win soon, and Infante’s starting this contract at league average or above. He’ll probably be worse by the end, but he should still have his uses, and for 2014 this should be a real good deal. Remember, given the Royals’ expected position on the win curve, help is extremely valuable to them. And because they’re financially limited, they need to get guys below standard free-agent prices. It shouldn’t be too hard for Infante to be worth this money, and that should be especially true in 2014-2015. And he’s not going to cost the team a draft pick.
Brandon Phillips is still out there as an available second baseman. The Reds aren’t getting too many bites, and Phillips is locked up for four years and $50 million. He’s six months older than Infante is, and Phillips is projected for between two and three wins, while Infante is projected almost exactly the same. Phillips projects for a 99 wRC+. Infante projects for a 101 wRC+. They’re both good in the field and fine on the bases. If Phillips’ market value is at least somewhere close to that $50 million, then Infante looks like a bargain at $20 million less. He’s had the lower career peak, but older players shouldn’t be evaluated by peaks. And while Phillips’ WAR topped out in 2011, Infante’s topped out just this past year.
While I’m here, actually, a thing. While I acknowledge that all situations are different, and all players are different, and projection systems are imperfect, consider these bullet points, with Steamer projections for 2014:
- Omar Infante, 2.2 WAR, 32 years old, $30.25 million/4 years, no qualifying offer
- Carlos Beltran, 1.8 WAR, 36 years old, $45 million/3 years, qualifying offer
- Curtis Granderson, 2.0 WAR, 32 years old, $60 million/4 years, qualifying offer
The Royals might be better off for having missed out in the Beltran sweepstakes. I don’t want to sound like I’m making the case that Infante is the bargain of the winter, but there have been far more questionable deals. The Royals tried to give one to a former Royal. Now, instead, they have a pretty neat second baseman getting paid Scott Feldman money except spread over one extra year. As free agency goes, it’s a fine investment.
Good for the Royals’ front office. The team’s better now, right away, and it didn’t have to overpay to accomplish that. That’s something, considering the needy Yankees were the competition.
Jeff made Lookout Landing a thing, but he does not still write there about the Mariners. He does write here, sometimes about the Mariners, but usually not.
Amen. As a Royals fan, I really feel like they needed to shore things up at the keystone. And, what do you know, Dayton Moore had a good day for a change.
he called in sick that day.. the asst gm signed him ! (jk, i dont know)
This is pretty much the same thing that was written about Macier Izturis last year. Good luck.
You really don’t see that there’s a significant difference between Omar Infante and Maicer Izturis?
Even I can see that difference.
And I’m just a despised, horse-faced troll.
What exactly are differences between Izturis after ’12 and Infante after ’13? t
The fact the Izturis had a higher career BB rate and a lower career K rate?
And I would bet on Infante having a respectable 2 win season, but i am just pointing out that the exact same article was written last year about Izturis, with similar career numbers.
“What exactly are differences between Izturis after ’12 and Infante after ’13?”
Well, we don’t really know that, because we haven’t seen Infante after ’13 yet. If he winds up with a bad ankle injury that causes him to miss a chunk of the season, I’ll say you’re a very prescient commenter. But if you want to cherry-pick single stats like walk rates or K rates, here’s one to consider:
After ’12, Izturis was coming off three seasons where he’d combined for 3.8 WAR.
After ’13 Infante was coming off three seasons where he’d combined for 8.1 WAR.
Dude just schooled you McLean.
Here’s the Izturis article:
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/maicer-izturis-finds-new-place-to-be-perfectly-acceptable/
The Royals will continue to have incredible defense. The 2014 Royals look alright. If Hosmer can keep his 2nd half performance going on. If Moose’s IFFB problem can be fixed. Maybe Yordano Ventura can blow us away with his fastball. Maybe Kyle Zimmer can get healthy.
If all these things go right, the frustration is that the Royals will probably still be a piece or two away on the pitching side. Something is seriously wrong when your closer is your second most valuable pitcher and nobody else even comes close.
Yeah, I still don’t think this team contends for the playoffs. That rotation is cringe-worthy. Shields pitched really, really badly in the second half of the year (peripheral wise, that is), and if that continues they don’t have a single reliable starter.
I mean a rotation of Shields,Ventura,Zimmer,Vargas,Duffy….is ok. But Shields is gone after 2014.
I have trouble rating a pitcher’s half by peripherals. I look at his #18 start through the season and I only see 4 bad starts, 2 in July vs CLE, 1 in August vs MIN and a disastrous one in September vs DET. I’m sure the latter skewed his peripherals. Give me 13 good starts out of 17 and I have to concede it as a very good half….just my way of looking at things
Yeah,unless there is a velocity problem or someone that got “figured out” due to have only 2 pitches or something, I ignore it. The Royals had a tough schedule towards the later part of the real.
Hey, the Royals actually made a pretty good deal.
Unfortunately they don’t have Kottaras anymore. They’re done.
Four years is certainly too many years for Infante, but that seems to be the case with nearly every multi-year free agent signing this offseason.
Three years from now I could see it not being completely out of line if Infante signed for a one year 7.5 million dollar contract, which is what his fourth year is. Maybe reality would have that one year deal tamped down to 4 or 5 million, we’ll see, but it shouldn’t be a huge miss at 7.5.
Yeah, I saw four years and I cringed a bit, but then I realized I would’ve thought 3/$30 was a slight overpay but totally defensible from the Royals perspective (given the relative value of 2-3 more wins to a mid-80s win team). When thinking about it like that, 4/$30 seems totally reasonable — why not get an extra year of potential value?
and now I see someone made almost this exact same comment, but with much more detail, further down. oops.
Royals have a great chance to take the Central ( especially after that disastrous Fister trade).
That would require nearly everything to go right for the Royals and wrong for the Tigers. The Tigers pitching is still incredible and I’m not convinced Smyly will be a huge downgrade.
Your Royals 2-5 rotation
Jeremy Guthrie, Jason Vargas, Danny Duffy, Luke Hochevar.
Your Tigers 2-5 rotation
Max Scherzer, Anibal Sanchez, Rick Porcello, Drew Smyly
Smell ya later.
More likely rotation is Shields, Duffy, Guthrie, Vargas, and Ventura.
Not like the vaunted Tigers managed to win the series against last year’s pathetic Royals’ rotation. This year they swap Santana, Davis, and Mendoza/Chen for Duffy, Ventura, and Vargas. Looks like an idea to me, but that’s why they play the games.
Smell ya later indeed.
On the other hand, Steamer seems to like KC’s everyday lineup more….
Norichika Aoki 2.2
Omar Infante 2.1
Eric Hosmer 2.8
Billy Butler 2.4
Alex Gordon 3.5
Salvador Perez 4.1
Mike Moustakas 2.7
Lorenzo Cain 2.6
Alcides Escobar 1.3
total 23.7
Austin Jackson 3.6
Ian Kinsler 3.5
Miguel Cabrera 6.3
Victor Martinez 1.3
Torii Hunter 1.9
Alex Avila 2.5
Andy Dirks/Rajai Davis combined 1.1
Nick Castellanos 1.6
Jose Iglesias 1.2
total 23
lol this is a joke right, the Tigers are so much better offensively and in the rotation that it’s almost laughable.
A huge part of the Tigers being better offensively is Miguel Cabrera, who now has injury issues in addition to being a large man who is over 30. An injury here or there to the Tigers, and they are a pretty mediocre team. The Royals front line talent can’t match the Tigers, but they might have better depth. I wouldn’t be shocked if the Tigers won 85 or less games next year.
@ Dan.
So basically, what you’re saying is that it would require nearly everything to go right for the Royals and wrong for the Tigers.
That’s not the best bet.
congrats, this is one of the dumbest comments I’ve ever read on fangraphs.
Tigers had about 105 third order wins last year. By wRC+ they were tied for the 9th best hitting team of the past decade. By FIP- they were the best. Of course their defense sucked ass, and they traded Fister for poop and lost Infante, but still the Tigers are way better than the Royals.
and, they also lost Fielder. Big pop there, in theory.
I do baseball analysis for fun almost daily, and I do not see the tigers as “way better than the Royals”. The tigers lost a key defender in Infante and they already had a bad defensive team. It would not take much bad luck for the tigers to be a .500 team with that atrocious defense unless they find some excellent defenders somewhere between now and the start of the season. Meanwhile the Royals are a top defensive team. One of the best in the game. I think predicting 85-90 wins is very reasonable for the Royals. Depending on the maturation of Duffy and health of the pitching staff they could win more. With average luck for both teams then I think these teams are within a game or two of each other. The Royals are an average to above average offensive team with one of the best defensive teams, one of the best bullpens, and an average rotation. The Tigers have the best hitter in baseball surrounded by a squad no better than the Royals once you factor him out, with a dreadful defense, a below average bullpen, and probably the best 1-3 rotation groups in baseball (4 and 5 are roughly equal to the royals at best). This is a close race probably won by the tigers by a game or two assuming most players stay healthy.
The Tigers only won 83 games in 2014? Meh. Not surprised
Go Nats,
Basically everything you said is wrong. The Tigers improved defensively this offseason at at least 3 of 4 infield positions, and quite possibly all of them. Their 2014 outfield defense should be average at worst. The Royals aren’t “an average to above average offensive team”. Okay maybe they will be average in 2014. Their lineup had a 88 wRC+ in 2013 — that’s 25th in the majors, between the Phillies and the Cubs. The Royals have players who could potentially bounce back/make big improvements in their offensive game, but so do the Tigers with Jackson and Avila.
@ Go Nats
Man, I’m a Royals fan and even I can see that you’re clearly behind the times on what the Tigers have done. “…unless they find some excellent defenders somewhere between now and the start of the season. ” You mean like Ian Kinsler and Jose Iglesias up the middle? And Castellanos at 3B? And Miggy at 1B? Maybe Miggy isn’t “excellent,” but he’s an upgrade over what they had last season at 1B.
What SHOULD worry Detroit fans is the prospect of an injury to Miggy and the fact that Verlander’s velocity has now declined for five straight years. Don’t get me wrong, JV is still one of the best in the game, but if this trend continues then he’s not their ace much longer.
Amidst the talk of the Tigers, people be missing one thing, Danny Salazar vs. Yordano Ventura.
This is I think a good move, especially since it does another call on the Yankees.
So what do the Yanks do now? Gardiner for Nick Franklin?
5 years of Franklin for one of Gardner?
Yeah, probably needs to be more going to Sea, although with the way Jack Z is going, maybe not. But hey, I am a Nats fan, so I don’t really have a dog in this one, just speculating. Talent wise, it feels like a fit in the short term.
I don’t think so. Franklin’s stock is low after last season and rentals are expensive.
Nick Franklin had a K-rate higher than Mark Trumbo’s in 2013.
Nick Anna
With this move i think the Royals lineup will look something like this:
Aoki
Infante
Gordon
Hosmer
Perez
Butler
Moustakas
Escobar
Cain
Thats a pretty strong 1-9, with alot of good defensive players as well.. Royals will be in pursuit of that playoff spot this year no doubt. Don’t know if theyre good enough to beat out the Orioles, Indians, Angels, Rangers etc. for WC spot but they should be right there
They will need some growth from a couple of the young guys, but yeah, it’s solid.
Either you omitted the Rays or conceded them one of the WC spots.
So you are either a fool or pretty smart.
Or they are covered by the etc. I don’t think it was meant to be an exhaustive list. The Royals were in this mix last season and they have improved, so you have to include them in here again. If a few things break right, the Royals have put themselves in position to be a WC team this year. It would take a complete collapse by the Tigers for them to hope for more.
Hochevar stays in the pen, Vetura becomes the fifth starter, a darn good one at that. Butler bats third, Gordon fifth. Royals make a run but still end up short.
It takes a 4 freakin year contract to get freakin Infante? Jebus.
I agree that four years is at least one year too long. But the thing is, if Infante had signed a $30M contract over three years, then most of us would think it was a reasonable contract for an established 2 win player. Maybe a bit higher than what we expected, but not outrageous–in fact, FG’s crowd source “real” prediction was for $27.5M over 3 years. MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes predicted $25M/3yr. So maybe rather than looking at this contract as one year too long, we should just consider it as a three year contract with the 4th year as a gift with purchase. Finally, I’m assuming that Infante didn’t get any sort of no-trade clause, in which case this contract could be a marketable asset for the Royals at some point. But in the short-term, since the Royals got well below replacement production from 2B last year, Infante truly replacements a full 3 win upgrade.
In Aoki, Infante, and Vargas, the Royals increased their 2014 payroll by about $17.5M (about 20% of what their 2013 payroll) for a projected 5-6 WAR. That’s really an outstanding expected ROI and not what you expect to see out of the Royals. For a team that was basically a .500 team last year and hasn’t lost much of consequence, they project to something close to a mid-80s win team particularly if Escobar and/or Gordon bounces back.
I’m just so used to the Royals making bad decisions. I still don’t like the Shields trade, but they’ve set themselves up nicely for 2014 and could contend for the AL Central if they have a little good luck combined with a little bad luck for the Tigers.
I do like what they’ve done this offseason, though I dearly hope they can manage to get the payroll a bit higher and make some more improvements for that push over the edge. They should be contenders for a WC spot next year, but it’ll be tough. I like their lineup 1-9 and it is quite solid defensively…but Moustakas can’t stink it up like he did last year and Hosmer definitely needs to keep steady. Hopefully Cain can stay healthy, too!
They have decent depth, too, at least among position players. It’d be great if Santana could come back on a contract that wasn’t absurd.
If you consider Infante to be roughly a 2-win player, then he’s worth $12 million plus a year. IMO this was a really good signing.
No, Infante is not a 3 WAR addition.
You are using the performance of last year’s K.C. 2B to inflate Infante’s value (because their cumulative WAR was negative last year), and then ignoring or diminishing the projections for those same 2B for the coming year (since their projections are for positive WAR next year). Since you understand the logic of calling Infante a “3 Win addition” based on negative WAR from KC’s 2B last year, then you also understand that – since KC’s internal 2B options are projected to produce more than 1 WAR over 550 PAs this year- Infante is projected to add substantially less than 2 WAR this season. So calling him a “3 WAR addition” is just fan-speak, or groundless optimism in the event that you don’t consider yourself a fan.
Either way, there are a ton of Royals fans in this comment section using inconsistent standards to take a very “half-full” position on this acquisition.
This deal is very poor value.
KC’s combination of Bonifacio/Giavotella was already projected by Steamer to contribute 1.5 WAR per 550 PA (1.8 WAR over 662 PA). Infante is projected by Steamer to post 2.1 WAR per 550 PA. So the Royals merely gain an estimate 0.6 WAR, at the price of $7.5M per season- through age 36. Infante has averaged just 1.7 WAR per 550 PA over his career- only 0.2 WAR more than projected by Bonifacio/Giavotella-, therefore investing $7.5M in Infante’s age 33, 34, 35, and 36 seasons is a very poor investment. This is simply a case of Dayton Moore overvaluing batting average: what a shock.
If veteran role players were completely liquid, and could easily be traded for value, an argument could be made that Moore might come out ahead on this acquisition by trading Bonifacio, Giavotella, and whatever above-replacement 2B Kansas City might have: so that the benefit of adding Infante could be measured simply by calculating Infante’s value over replacement. But the problem is that Infante isn’t replacing a replacement player, he is replacing similarly mediocre-yet-above-replacement-level 2Bs: and none of these three players could be traded for much anything on the trade market.
Another predictably terrible free agent deal from a GM trying to save his job.
Sorry, but I just don’t agree with this assessment of the Royals alternatives to secondbase for 2014. Giavotella’s 2014 projection is being driven by outstanding 2013 numbers in AAA, the third straight year that he has spent a majority of his time. AAAA players tend to get overrated when their position adjustment is accounting for so much of their expected value. The fact is, next year he’ll be 26 and has been well-below replacement in the 424 PA he’s had in the majors.
Bonifacio’s bat plays fine as an everyday secondbaseman, but not his glove. He’s best utilized as a super-utility guy, which seems to be the plan.
Saying “well, I disagree with projections” works both ways.
You could easily make the argument that Infante’s projections are optimistic: he is a career .315 wOBA hitter and mediocre defender whose projections are enhanced by the fact that he posted his best offensive numbers and best defensive numbers after his peak years. Such late career peaks- inconsistent with prior career levels- correlate very highly with fluke seasons that are followed quickly by strong regression.
I don’t think there is any principled basis to conclude that the Steamer projections enhance the value of Bonifacio/Giavotella moreso than Infante. Giavotella has had only 424 PA in the majors, as you mention, and he is just 26. He posted a .381 wOBA at AA at age 23, a .385 wOBA at AAA at age 24, a .389 wOBA at AAA at age 25, and then posted a .348 wOBA at AAA this past season at age 26. Giavotella’s 2013 minor league numbers were the worst of his career- hardly inflating his Steamer projection too much. Now, admittedly, he has been old for his level, and I am not a Giavotella fan- but his 0.7 WAR projection can hardly be singled out as unrealistic. Giavotella is a young 2B with a below-but-close-to-average glove whose bat has looked quite good in the minors but hasn’t shown anything so far through 424 major league PAs: i.e., his profile actually resembles a young Infante, and Giavotella has a decent shot to be the better player over the next four seasons due to being 6 years younger.
And that’s just Giavotella- of whom I am no fan. I’m no fan of Bonifacio either, but given his 2.8 WAR performance in 2011, his Steamer projection of 1.1 WAR isn’t out-of-this-world insane. Prior to moving to Detroit less than 2 seasons ago, Infante had never had 2.8 WAR, or even 2.2. I don’t like Bonifacio’s defense, but Infante has rated as a below average defender in 3 of his last 7 seasons, while Bonifacio rated as an average defender or better in 2 of his last 4 seasons. Admittedly, Infante is the better defender, but the difference is not huge, and the four year advantage of youth held by Bonifacio will mitigate the defensive advantage Infante has as he moves through his 33-to-36 age seasons.
The point is not that Bonifacio or Giavotella are good. It’s rather, that Infante is not likely to be all that much better going forward. It’s somewhat likely that all three of these players will be below replacement level by 2015, such that Kansas City’s best option is giving some prospects a shot: like AAA IF Christian Colon (Oliver projects 1.1 WAR per 600 PAs). That’s not to say that Colon necessarily is the answer either- rather, that very few free agent acquisitions are replacing replacement players, but are almost all replacing above-replacement players: and the younger options offer more variance and upside.
The cut-and-dry analysis is that the Royals just spent $7.5 M per year, over the next four years, to upgrade their projected 2B WAR by 0.2, while lowering the variance of the projection: typical, laughable Dayton Moore.
“And that’s just Giavotella- of whom I am no fan. I’m no fan of Bonifacio either, but given his 2.8 WAR performance in 2011, his Steamer projection of 1.1 WAR isn’t out-of-this-world insane. Prior to moving to Detroit less than 2 seasons ago, Infante had never had 2.8 WAR, or even 2.2.”
Using 2.2 WAR is pretty disingenuous unless you had some reason to specifically cite that number, because Omar Infante had 2./1/ WAR with the Braves and Marlins. Is there a reason the 0.1 WAR was important? (I would imagine 2 WAR would be best, as it is an “average” player IIRC).
“I don’t think there is any principled basis to conclude that the Steamer projections enhance the value of Bonifacio/Giavotella moreso than Infante. Giavotella has had only 424 PA in the majors, as you mention, and he is just 26. He posted a .381 wOBA at AA at age 23, a .385 wOBA at AAA at age 24, a .389 wOBA at AAA at age 25, and then posted a .348 wOBA at AAA this past season at age 26. Giavotella’s 2013 minor league numbers were the worst of his career- hardly inflating his Steamer projection too much. Now, admittedly, he has been old for his level, and I am not a Giavotella fan- but his 0.7 WAR projection can hardly be singled out as unrealistic. ”
He has had -1.0 WAR in his MLB career and his minor league numbers are trending /down/. 0.7 WAR might not be unrealistic, but it is very optimistic if you ask me.
“And that’s just Giavotella- of whom I am no fan. I’m no fan of Bonifacio either, but given his 2.8 WAR performance in 2011, his Steamer projection of 1.1 WAR isn’t out-of-this-world insane.”
It isn’t insane, but it requires him to post the second best wRC+ of his career and the second best defensive numbers of his career. This is possible, but not something to put your hat on, and probably less likely than Infante simply declining to 2.0 WAR this year.
“The cut-and-dry analysis is that the Royals just spent $7.5 M per year, over the next four years, to upgrade their projected 2B WAR by 0.2, while lowering the variance of the projection: typical, laughable Dayton Moore.”
The cut-and-dry analysis is that the Royals just spent 7.5 mil per year to avoid giving 462 PAs to a guy with negative defensive numbers and a career 80 wRC+ but good legs who needs the second best numbers of his career to reach 1.1 WAR and a guy who has had negative WAR in the majors while trending downwards in the minors to have 0.7 WAR, while signing a contract that is paid for if Infante puts up about 5 WAR the entire contract, and which does not represent large risk overall due to the 7.5 mil commitment, while doing so on the peak end of their win curve.
While 2013 was a down year compared to 2011 and 2013, it was still good for a .348 wOBA, which has the greatest weight on his 2014 projection. I’m not discounting Giavotella’s projected WAR on a whim, but because of where that supposed value is coming from.
First, the Steamer regression basically assumes that he is an average defender (because he’s played so few MLB innings), so it awards him almost the full 2.5 run position adjustment for being a 2B (adjusted for playing time). But if you’ve seen him play, you’d know that’s a pretty generous assessment of his defense. Just because it’s so amusing, here’s Baseball Prospectus’ 2013 description of Giavotella’s defense: “playing second base with the grace and urgency of a three-toed sloth.” Very small sample size alert, but he has been a -13.5 UZR/150 second baseman in the majors, which corroborates that he’s very likely a liability in the field. Factor in below-average defense and that 2014 Steamer projected WAR starts to converge toward zero.
Second, the offensive projection is suspect because he’s an older player for his league without power who walks a ton. Players who put up strong OBP via high walk rates in the minors (particularly when they repeat years at the same level), but who lack power, often struggle to achieve anywhere close to the same walk rates once they get to the majors. Giavotella has projected ISO of only .110 and he’s old for a league that he’s repeated, so I’ll gladly take the under on his projected walk rate of ~8%. And if he’s not walking about once ever 12 PA, then he’s going to struggle to get an OBP above .300, which is a kiss of death for any sort of MLB career (particularly given his lousy defense). For all those reasons, I’ll definitely take the under on the projected .319 wOBA.
To address the comparison to Infante, I’m not seeing much evidence that Infante is any sort of defensive liability at 2B, at least not at this point. He’s a little above-average with the glove at second. Meanwhile, he is something like a .310-.330 wOBA hitter. Together, slightly above average hitter with slightly above-average defense at second yields a 2-3 win player, which is precisely what the Royals are paying him to be.
Bonifacio is a bit of a wild card because his BABIP drives so much of his offensive value. But his .295 wOBA projection for 2014 seems about right for what he’ll contribute offensively and with baserunning he has modest positive offensive value. Defensively… well he’s not even 30 and has already played for four organizations who have tried him at 2B/3B/SS/LF/CF/RF and over the course of his career, he’s been a mediocre defensive player at every position aside from the corner outfield, where he can’t be an asset as a starter with his bat. Because of his versatility, near league-average bat, and speed, he’s a useful utility player, but a .295 wOBA second baseman with lousy defense is not someone who should be starting everyday for team looking to contend in 2014.
There are a few flaws in your logic, but I’ll address the most pertinent. You missed the chaining effect of using Bonifacio as a super utility type. By taking him out of the 2b job, Bonifacio will still have a good deal of value as someone who can field multiple positions competently, can get on base a bit, and can hit just enough. If he pulls 350-400 PAs along with defensive value that would have otherwise gone to a lesser talented bench player–a perfectly cromulent assumption given Bonifacio’s position flexibility–then the equation of value you set up is incorrect as it doesn’t include that benefit.
jcxy — Your correct usage of the word “cromulent” has embiggened my heart.
Giavotella has been worth a grand total of negative one WAR over his major league career. He hasn’t put up elite SB numbers since 2009 in the minors, has never had high power numbers and his defense has graded out poorly. Something to note is that Steamer heavily regresses Giavotella’s numbers to average defensively and predicts a large offensive increase. Oliver has a much worse projection for Giavotella and pretty much all of them rely on him improvinhg, which is something they can’t bank on when they are essentially all-in this year.
Bonifacio has one year with over 2 WAR in his career, 2 if you go to a by-PA amount in 2010, and is a below average career hitter (80 career wRC+) with defense that is roughly a bit below scratch. He has a slight platoon split to hit lefties, putting him maybe on the short end of a platoon, but he makes an excellent reserve infielder and pinch runner. Steamer projects him for about half the amount of wins Infante is projected with 122 games and 462 PAs. You CAn combine it with Giavotella for 1.8 WAR…but you’re putting a lot of trust in either Giavotella on the right hand of a platoon, despite being a rightie, or just Bonifacio full time.
In addition, the 1.7 WAR over 550 PA is kinda stupid, as it blows Giavotell out of the water and means Infante has put up as much WAR per 550 PA as about half of Bonifacio’s career.
In short, Infante has had a better career, has better projected numbers, has been much better recently and does not require Giavotella to suddenly perform like a major league player, or a good one, or for Bonifacio to hit better than usual (Projected wRC+ of 82 has only been met once in his career, it also projects his second best year defensively) and thus provide the offense required for him to live up to his Steamer projection. I’ll take the under on Giavotella + Bonifacio meeting their projections.
I think anyone who thinks Johnny G is a capable ML option at 2B has never actually watched him play a game. Brutal.
There are some good points in this thread about how Giavotella’s projections may be optimistic, but we are perhaps glossing over his very-impressive-for-a-pretend-2B batting numbers in the minors.
Even putting Giavotella aside, this is an unjustifiably acquisition for the Royals, that only makes sense when you realize that Dayton Moore- even with his extension- is trying to save his career by winning immediately so as to justify the Shields trade. This trade makes sense for Dayton Moore, but not for the Royals.
Nearly all of the focus in these responses falls on the smallest part of the argument: Giovotella and his projected 200 plate appearances. Giovotella is not the reason that Infante is not worth $7.5M per season during his age 33, 34, 35, and 36 seasons. Instead, Infante’s negligible advantage over typical AAAA (above replacement) talent- such as Bonifacio, Colon, and the like- is why his contract is poor value. The Royals are not at the portion of the win-curve where wins are the most valuable- because they are and have been further removed from contention than Moore and their fanbase imagines. Not every team that has internally decided to “go for it” is at the highest value portion of the added win curve. While the Tigers could perhaps justify locking up average at this cost, the Royals cannot- the Royals have less money to spend, and still need to focus on using all their assets to acquire impact talent.
The focus on Giavotella is misplaced, but includes some insightful analysis. I completely agree that his defensive abilities are being overestimated by the projections.
The more relevant focus is on Bonifacio- and more than Bonifacio- the other above-replacement level 2B options available to Kansas City, such as Colon.
As far as the “cascading effect” that was mentioned- I did not overlook the cascading effect at all. As I mentioned, my whole logic was based on the fact that Kansas City had at least three other internal 2B options who projected to be better than replacement- Bonifacio, Giavotella, and Colon- among others. Even if you disagree that Giovotella is above replacement, there is still Colon – on of KC’s 10 bset position player prospects, who is projected to provide 1.1 WAR in 600 PAs by Oliver.
Going by projections, Infante over Bonifacio/Giavotella as the starter at 2B is worth about 0.2 WAR, and the advantage of using Bonifacio/Giavotella over Colon as the utility infielder provides another 0.1-0.3 WAR, depending on how many PAs the utility fielder gets. The problem with this cascading analysis is that it ignores the lost opportunity cost of adding a higher variance player to the utility role. An expected 0.1-0.3 WAR upgrade at a utility spot is not worth paying much anything for, because the projected value is still so close to replacement level value, that such negligible value is overwhelmed by the higher variance upside of using internal or younger options. “Fairly certain mediocrity” is only worth 8 figure, 4 year deals for a player entering their mid-30s on a team that is already projected to win something meaningful- and merely needs to avoid a disaster.
All told, this is 4 years at $30M for a ~0.2-0.4 WAR increase this season- which can be expected to decline or invert in the near future. Classic Dayton Moore. K.C. is paying something close to $15M per added win and making their roster older, simply to upgrade a roster from “likely missing the playoffs by a bit,” to “likely missing the playoffs by less.” There is a reason they call him Dayton Moore I guess: he does so many Dayton Moore-ish type things.
I think tht you’re focusing too much on WAR projections on not enough on something like wOBA or wRC+. Since the playing time projections vary quite a bit, it’s just a weak guess what they’ll actually be, and the offensive portion of WAR is based on them anyway, let’s just compare Steamer projected wOBA for the four players.
Bonifacio: .295
Colon: .295
Giavotella: .310
Infante: .320
In other words, Infante 2014 is a league average hitter, Giavotella is below-average, while Bonifacio and Colon are poor. For a number of reasons stated earlier, that’s a very optimistic projection for Giavotella–but he’s the only one who is projected to being close to as good a hitter as Infante, which is why a lot of attention has been spent on deconstructing his projection.
Bonifacio and Giavotella are below-average defenders at 2B. Infante is slightly above-average. Despite his weak stick and glove, Bonifacio can be useful off the bench because of his baserunning and versatility. The Royals lose the latter if he’s the everyday second baseman.
Colon is a bit of a wild card in that he’s a little above average defensively, although offensively he figures to be no better than Bonifacio. But he’ll be 25 in mid-May and hasn’t seen any time in the majors. Not entrusting 2B to him coming out of spring training seems reasonable.
But in essence, you’re undervaluing Infante and vastly overvaluing the potential value of using some combination of Bonifacio, Colon, and/or Giavotella as a full-time 2B.
The Royals are going to try to compete in 2014, which is reasonable given that it’s the last year with Shields and the only other competitive team in the division is the Tigers. I agree completely that trading Myers for Shields was an epic mistake, but it’s done. At this point, Infante makes the Royals better and, if they underperform and aren’t competitive in 2014, then Infante and Vargas’ contracts are likely marketable trading assets. It’s limited downside for the Royals and close-to-optimal use of $16M for 2014, so I just don’t see any problem with this deal. Moore may be scrambling to keep his job, but he’s done a very good job with the acquisitions of Aoki, Infante, and Vargas as that trio makes the Royals better for 2014 and doesn’t compromise their long-term prognosis.
The Royals were 5.5 games back on the Wild Card and close all to the end and, IIRC, the most valuable part of the win curve is around 88 wins to 92 wins. The Royals won 86 games. In other words, basically the definition of being on the right end of the win curve, buying the valuable wins in those areas.
Colon’s total forecast is 1.1 WAR for basically a full year, which is abotu a win less than Infante. This projection is for 600 PAs. Oliver, in turn, projects Infante to 2.6 WAR in 600 PAs by that same projection system. Bonifacio is 1.5 WAR per 600 and, again, requires him to put up the second best numbers of his career both offensively and defensively.
In short, there isn’t any way using Oliver that you get from Infante’s 2.6 to only a 0.2 WAR difference between Bonifacio and Colon. Even Infante’s 2.2 WAR Steamer projection beats Bonifacio’s by 0.7, before factoring in the WAR of Bonifacio as a bench player. In short, Infante’s projections are more than the others unless you are downgrading his projections or improving the others. And this is still with things like Bonifacio’s being optimistic.
And finally, I have no idea how Infante keeping up a lesser (Something like 2.1 WAR) level of play is higher variance than hoping Bonifacio turns in the second best year of his career, Giavotella becomes good or Colon as a rookie. Wouldn’t he be lower variance?
I understand you hate Dayton Moore and I’m not a big fan of him either, but everything but the most pessimistic for Infante and optimistic for others suggests this was a good signing, and the WAR value seems great, as Infante being a 4-5 WAR over his entire contract pays it off. It just isn’t a problematic deal.
Not sure we can yet see Colon as an above replacement level player. Royals, as well as others, see him as a future UIF, which drove the signing of Infante. They don’t see Colon as an every day major leaguer over the next few years. And when your 2nd base depth chart is Bonifacio, Ciriaco, Colon, and Giavotella, it is time to go outside the organization and bring in help to tide the team over ’til Mondezi comes up and pushes Escobar to 2nd base.
I think it was a fine signing and frees Bonifacio to spell Moose against tough lefties or take over 3rd if Moose goes to Omaha.
@Walt345-
You’ve completely left out baserunning.
Your “focus only on wOBA” analysis ignores baserunning- which is Bonifacio’s main tool. Furthermore, focusing on wOBA shows that Giovotella is projected to add similar offensive value as Infante. There is no real reason to doubt Giovotella’s offensive projection any more than Infante’s- both profiles have warts. The only way to make Infante look like a clear, substantial upgrade is to engage in this sort of strainted logic, such as “If you look at only wOBA, but you also discount Giovotella’s projected wOBA…then Infante scores much better…”
Bonifacio’s main skill is baserunning, so once you add his the value of baserunning, his offensive value is projected to be quite near Infante’s. Oliver projects Infante to create 1.4 runs above average, while projection Bonifacio to create 0.8 runs above average. The Steamer projection puts Infante at 1.1 runs above average, and Bonifacio at -1.5: and both projection systems have both players roughly average at defense, but with a 1-2 run advantage for Infante.
Colon also adds more baserunning runs than Infante, and Colon is rated as an excellent defender whose best tool is his glove.
The Infante contract is a joke, it’s $15M per added win.
In response to Ruki
“..everything but the most pessimistic for Infante and optimistic for others suggests this was a good signing..”
That is not true.
Simply taking the Steamer projections at face value gives Infante a price of $11M per added WAR, for his age 32 season. That price will only increase over the next three years. So that is an example of how this contract could be poor value, and that is not “the most pessimistic projection,” it is merely taking Steamer at face value.
Steamer
…Infante: 2.1 WAR per 481 PAs
Giovotella: 1.5 WAR per 481 PAs
(Bonifacio: 1.1 WAR per 481 PAs)
So that would be 0.6 WAR over the course of the season for which Infante’s is projected to stay healthy- 481 PAs.
0.6 added WAR at the price of $7.5M is $12.5M per added WAR.
Every commentator who approved of this move is choosing to take the under on the projections of the Royal’s three 2B candidates, or to take the over on Infante. I choose to take the under on Infante, and therefore feel the deal is more like $15M per added win.
But simply taking the Steamer projections at face value
puts the cost at $12.5M per added win- and that’s just in year one. We can easily project that cost to ballon past $15M per added win during ages 34 and 35, if not next year or this at age 33 or 32.
Oliver projects a WAR difference of 0.88 WAR over 481 PAs- $9.4M per added WAR. Both Infante and Bonifacio have only met the 600 PA threshold used by Oliver once in their careers.
So the face value reading of the projection systems puts the value of Infante’s contract, for is first season, at $9.4-12.5M per added win. Accordingly, it is not true that “even the most pessimistic projections…suggest this was a good signing.”
Johnny Giavotella has proven that he is not ready to occupy a year-long position on a major league roster. Giving a spot to guys like him devalues the team by keeping a more versatile player or additional bullpen arm out.
This signing would have been much better if they still had Myers, Odorizzi and the $30M they paid for 2 years of Shields. Add any decent FA pitcher and they’d be knocking on Detroits door.
Detroit is a legit World Series contender, and probably in top quarter in terms of financial resources. Royals will need a few breaks to get to 90 wins. They are moving in the right direction but the gap between them is still large.
There are many problems with this reasoning. With that money, this year they would have been able to sign someone similar to Scott Feldman or Bartolo Colon or maybe a Kuroda (who only wanted to sign with the Yankees in the U.S. at 16 mil per). Colon, Feldman and most of the pitchers left barely upgrade their current pitching staff. I would believe the only loss here is Myers, and that can be overcome if they extend Shields. His value is much more than the money. The Royals don’t compete for the wild card last year without Shields.
id rather have gotten infante for 4/30 than beltran for 3/45
Aren’t we basing most of this on what he Royals did last year with one of the healthiest teams in baseball? I believe that due to the health, last years team over performed. The rotation got worse because no 2-5 guy will match what a Santana did last year (I could be wrong there). I still see them at .500ish, them shields is gone and back to square one.