Trading for Proven Workhorse David Price
The thing we know is that David Price is going to be traded. That much is a virtual certainty, for all of the reasons you already understand. The things we don’t know are all of the details. We don’t know where he’s going to be traded to, and we don’t know what he’s going to bring back. We don’t know when the trade is going to happen, and we don’t know if there’ll even be a trade this offseason. Would the Rays be daring enough to move Price during a competitive regular season? Would they be daring enough to wait to move Price until the next winter? Who feels a greater sense of urgency — the team with Price, or the teams that would like to have him? Behind the scenes, there’s probably a lot of activity, but from the outside it feels like nothing has budged for a matter of weeks.
Oh, and there’s another thing we know. David Price has been outstanding. Truly outstanding, since he graduated into the majors. He’s posted four consecutive seasons of at least 180 innings and at least an average ERA, and the reality is that he’s mostly exceeded those marks with relative ease. Over the four seasons, he’s averaged 208 innings and a 78 ERA-. Price has been one of the game’s great workhorses, and that’s a big part of how the Rays are selling him. You get Price, and you can write his next season’s numbers in ink.
But over the rest of this post, I’m going to establish a point that has long been established. There’s no question that Price has been a workhorse, and an ultra-effective one at that. Young pitchers don’t get more proven. But what is it to trade for a workhorse? What does the track record mean for the short-term future? To what extent can you really count on a guy like Price to give you 200 quality innings?
As always, we turn to history. For four straight years, between the ages of 24-27, Price has thrown 180+ innings with at least an average ERA. He’s one of just 19 pitchers to do that over the past 30 years, at those ages. Between 1982-2011, there were 16 such pitchers. What we care about, then, is how did those pitchers do when they were 28 and 29? Because Price, of course, has two remaining years of team control until he’s eligible to be a free agent. Which means it’s two years until Price is paid like an ace, presuming he still is one.
For strike-related reasons, I have to exclude two starters from the pool of 16. So we’re left with 14 guys, and here’s a big table of names and statistical information. By the numbers, these can all be considered peers of David Price.
| Name | Age | IP | ERA- | FIP- | WAR | RA9-WAR | Age | IP | ERA- | FIP- | WAR | RA9-WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barry Zito | 24-27 | 902 | 81 | 96 | 15.6 | 19.8 | 28-29 | 418 | 93 | 109 | 3.8 | 7.1 |
| Brad Radke | 24-27 | 899 | 84 | 84 | 19.1 | 19.2 | 28-29 | 344 | 92 | 84 | 7.6 | 6.3 |
| Brandon Webb | 24-27 | 853 | 72 | 78 | 17.9 | 20.3 | 28-29 | 463 | 68 | 70 | 11.7 | 12.3 |
| Carlos Zambrano | 24-27 | 842 | 80 | 91 | 13.5 | 19.1 | 28-29 | 299 | 84 | 86 | 5.8 | 5.4 |
| CC Sabathia | 24-27 | 883 | 74 | 75 | 23.3 | 23.2 | 28-29 | 468 | 74 | 79 | 11.0 | 12.0 |
| Dan Haren | 24-27 | 879 | 81 | 84 | 18.7 | 19.0 | 28-29 | 464 | 82 | 81 | 9.7 | 10.5 |
| Dave Stieb | 24-27 | 1098 | 69 | 85 | 21.3 | 31.5 | 28-29 | 390 | 102 | 106 | 3.6 | 3.3 |
| Jon Lester | 24-27 | 813 | 75 | 78 | 20.0 | 22.5 | 28-29 | 419 | 102 | 91 | 7.4 | 5.3 |
| Mark Mulder | 24-27 | 825 | 84 | 92 | 12.9 | 17.7 | 28-29 | 104 | 176 | 145 | -1.1 | -2.2 |
| Mike Hampton | 24-27 | 891 | 79 | 91 | 14.4 | 19.5 | 28-29 | 382 | 114 | 105 | 3.6 | 1.3 |
| Pedro Martinez | 24-27 | 905 | 59 | 59 | 32.0 | 31.6 | 28-29 | 334 | 41 | 42 | 15.7 | 17.1 |
| Roger Clemens | 24-27 | 1027 | 66 | 63 | 32.8 | 31.7 | 28-29 | 518 | 60 | 61 | 17.4 | 16.6 |
| Tim Hudson | 24-27 | 916 | 72 | 84 | 19.3 | 24.4 | 28-29 | 381 | 80 | 90 | 6.4 | 8.6 |
| Tim Lincecum | 24-27 | 882 | 71 | 71 | 22.4 | 24.1 | 28-29 | 384 | 132 | 109 | 2.5 | -0.5 |
Between 24-27, the group averaged 225 innings per season, with a 75 ERA- and an 81 FIP-. Price has averaged 208 innings per season, with a 78 ERA- and an 83 FIP-, so that all checks out. Price has been worth 17.4 WAR, and 19.9 RA9-WAR. All these guys have been different types of the same thing.
Between 28-29, the group averaged 192 innings per season, with a 93 ERA- and a 90 FIP-. On average, it remained a group of good starters, but they were worse and they pitched less, which is of course precisely what you’d expect on account of basic regression. Whenever you have guys performing around extremes, you expect them to be more average going forward, even without any decline in natural ability. Old principle, that one.
Out of those 14 starters:
- nine started at least 60 games between 28-29
- six threw at least 400 innings between 28-29
- five were worth at least 8 WAR between 28-29
- six were worth at least 8 RA9-WAR between 28-29
There are clear successes. Roger Clemens remained an incredible workhorse. Same with CC Sabathia, Dan Haren, and Brandon Webb. Pedro Martinez didn’t stay perfectly healthy, but he improved when he pitched, so he was amazing. But at the extreme other end, Mark Mulder turned into a mess. Nobody really knows what’s happened with Tim Lincecum. Dave Stieb had an odd couple years of regression, and so on and so forth.
I should tell you, the real picture is actually better than this. The two pitchers excluded because of the strike were Greg Maddux and Jack McDowell. They didn’t get to pitch full seasons in 1994-1995, but when they did pitch, they were healthy and very good. In those years, both were 28-29, and McDowell was good while Maddux both times led the league in ERA. Presumably, they should count as positive comps for Price, so go ahead and mentally factor that in however you want.
But the obvious point is clear: there’s no such thing as a performance guarantee. This is that point that’s long been established. Trade for Price and you don’t know you’re getting a sure 200 innings with a low ERA. He might get hurt, he might pitch worse, or he might do both. Price has better-than-average odds of being an ace workhorse the next two seasons, because of his track record. Those odds, however, are far from 100%. The Rays can’t sell him as a lock, and a team shouldn’t buy him as a lock. He’s a risk like literally everybody else.
And maybe more than that. The most recent year that Price didn’t exceed 200 innings was 2013. He lost two miles off of his average fastball and he missed more than a month with an arm injury. His strikeouts dropped by four percentage points. Of course he was still incredible. He came back from the injury just not throwing balls anymore, so he offset the strikeout drop with a corresponding drop in walks. His other pitches didn’t have velocity declines like his fastball, if they declined at all, so you wonder if it might’ve been deliberate, a sacrifice of power for location. But you can’t just assume that. According to PITCHf/x, in 2012, Price threw 264 pitches at least 97 miles per hour. In 2013, he threw zero. Price might no longer be physically capable of that high-90s heat.
Which doesn’t mean he can’t succeed. Which doesn’t mean he can’t be brilliant. Felix Hernandez has remained durable and brilliant with less and less heat. But Price has his warning signs, and the history of these pitchers is somewhat mixed. As a rule of thumb, if you’re acquiring an amazing player, you should expect him to not be so amazing. David Price is a relative safe bet, but he’s not an actual safe bet, in terms of remaining durable and outstanding.
Players are risky. Pitchers are riskier. Congratulations to us, we’ve learned nothing new. But it is easy to forget that there’s no such thing as getting a guaranteed staff ace. There is only such thing as getting a guy who’s been a staff ace before.
Jeff made Lookout Landing a thing, but he does not still write there about the Mariners. He does write here, sometimes about the Mariners, but usually not.
Felix Hernandez – 8 consecutive seasons at 190+ innings, and yet doesn’t make the sample cut ’cause he hasn’t pitched his age 28 and 29 seasons, yet.
🙂
I would put king felix above Price, so maybe he is not a peer.
Dave Cameron: “Hey Jeff, I’ve been posting a lot of comments lately about how there’s no such thing as “proven” and how experienced players are no more predictable than inexperienced players, but the readers have been absolutely killing me for it. Could you do me a big favor and write a column with cherry-picked boundaries that produces misleading results to make my argument seem legitimate?”
Jeff Sullivan: “Sure thing, Dave. No problem.”
Of course I don’t know if he asked you to write something or if you saw him getting brutalized and wanted to support a friend, but as much as I generally love your work, I find no usefulness whatsoever in judging David Price based in part on Barry Zito, Brad Radke, Carlos Zambrano, and Mike Hampton. Commenters who hold up ERA to measure performance get assaulted, but you’re going to use that as the basis for your column? Those guys have very little in common with Price aside from being major league pitchers and the arbitrary ERA designation you selected.
Yes, we all get that David Price isn’t guaranteed to keep performing at the level he has or even necessarily be close to it. We understand that his velocity will probably decline. None of that, however, justifies Cameron’s repeated denial of the difference between players who have achieved something at the major league level and those who haven’t. Because Price has performed at a high level, and especially because he has done so repeatedly, there is a much greater likelihood that he will continue to do so than (Insert Elite Pitching Prospect Here). Instead of trying to make excuses for your friend, you’d be better served convincing him to stop saying things like “believing that there are “proven players” and “unproven players” is perhaps the most dangerous mistake in forecasting one can make.“
Underneath all the non-constructive snark directed towards dc, there’s a decent discussion point in there.
This has nothing to do with Dave. This was my own little thing to look up, since it’s been an empty news day and Price rumors are relevant. I don’t get involved in Dave’s comment threads and if he believes that there’s no difference between proven players and unproven players, then I disagree with him. Of course there’s a difference, which many people overstate and Dave might understate.
I had to use ERA+ because the Play Index doesn’t include anything better. Of course the ideal would be using something else but that’ll at least get most of the way, and it makes things a whole hell of a lot easier.
Again, I’m a big fan of your work, but I can’t bring myself to believe it’s a total coincidence that Dave Cameron has made posts in multiple discussions and in his most recent chat about this very subject. I honestly don’t see the value in this comparison aside from trying to make Dave’s argument look better. I’d much rather see David Price compared to historical pitchers he actually resembles than those from “1982-2011” who for “four straight years, between the ages of 24-27” threw “180+ innings with at least an average ERA.” That would have been an interesting column. I’d like to see how guys with similarities to Price in FIP-, strikeout rate, and walk rate from 24 through 27 then performed in subsequent years.
This. Very much so. Zambrano, Zito, and Mulder all had FIP’s in the mid-4’s in their age 26/27 years, and this was also reflected in their falling fWAR totals.
To use them as comps for Price isn’t very good methodology. On a site that champions the predictive and evaluative value of FIP over ERA, an ERA-centered analysis on David Price’s future outcomes makes me sad. A FIP centered analysis may say the same thing, but I think a lot of people, myself included, would be much more inclined to believe it.
Why not just use fWAR? Set a threshold of 3.5 per season? You probably don’t even need 180 IP with that threshold, but you could add it if you want to be thorough.
You know who Price pitched a lot like this season? Brad Radke.
There would be better ways to do this, and maybe I’ll even end up revisiting the subject down the road. But other ways become incredibly complicated, in large part because of the changes in league-wide statistical rates. With strikeouts going up, we need to adjust everything and then that’s a real bitch to do manually. And ultimately I imagine you’re going to end up with a similar result: pitchers like Price generally remain effective, but they presumably are less effective, and less healthy. You’ll have your aces and your total busts. It’s just a matter of how it’s all distributed.
Used to be people accused Dave and I of sharing a brain. We think about a lot of things similarly. This didn’t come from him. This came from me, looking for something to look up and write about. I additionally don’t really appreciate the insinuation.
I admit that if I had today over again I would try to find better statistical benchmarks. Usually ERA+ is a worthy approximation but obviously there are times that it misleads and the Play Index just makes things so easy and tempting.
I’m gonna go out on a limb and say that those comps will also be a mixed bag. Lincecum at least will still be a comp, as will Lester. The list of great, durable pitchers whose throwing apparatus exploded without warning is pretty long. The list of ones who kept being great might be longer. Plus there are some in-betweeners who just became averageish. Price has a greater percentile chance of being amazing than say Bruce Chen. But I wouldn’t get all up in arms because Jeff didn’t go through historical pitchers who struck out a lot of batters without giving up walks over their younger years. It’s probably close to the same list, while being more inaccessible to the average reader.
I think that Jeff summed it up pretty well:
“David Price is a relative safe bet, but he’s not an actual safe bet, in terms of remaining durable and outstanding.
Players are risky. Pitchers are riskier. Congratulations to us, we’ve learned nothing new.”
If that doesn’t say “better gamble than most” I don’t know what does. It does smash the narrative of “durable workhorse” or “penciling him in for 200 innings of X ERA” – but those narratives should die. The narrative of “he’s good, and will probably still be good the next couple of years, but we aren’t really sure” is harder to explain to people, even if it’s true. ERA or K% or FIP are all going to tell you roughly that.
FIP is not a predictive stat. It’s descriptive.
You do realize that the only point of this post was to show that David Price is not a sure thing going forward right? This was not a “David Price’s best Comp” article. And honestly, Dave and Jeff have been writing these types of articles for years, so you having a hard time believing it’s just coincidence really is just you having a hard time.
To my knowledge, no one here was ever denied that there is a difference between players who have had some success at the major league level and those that have not. That is probably the most asinine strawman I’ve ever read here. That’s not what Jeff argued here and it doesn’t approach anything stated in any post or chat of Dave’s I’ve read. Making ridiculous assertions like that one destroys any credibility you believe you have.
“There is no such thing as a known commodity. Every player’s future is uncertain, regardless of past performance. Every single one. Believing that there are “proven players” and “unproven players” is perhaps the most dangerous mistake in forecasting one can make.”
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-price-for-david-price/
“For the next few seasons, Robinson Cano is going to be a huge bargain.”
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/mariners-break-the-bank-hope-robinson-cano-defies-odds/
well that’s … confusing?
Perhaps it’s because we insist on these stupid categories: “known commodities” and “unproven players”. Really we have degrees of certainty. Ranging from “unknown prospect”, who may or may not be good, to “great player with sustained success”, who seems likely to continue performing well. But even for the great players there’s always the risk of injury or catastrophe. I think maybe humans just aren’t good at thinking about degrees of certainty.
Uncertainty is relative. You make decisions based on expectations. Uncertainty is still ubiquitous.
I will admit, I have no idea why Dave Cameron bothered to say that. “Proven” and “Unproven” are both poorly-defined concepts with arbitrary thresholds. I can say that a proven player has one 2+ WAR MLB year. You can say that it’s a guy with 3 MLB seasons of 10+ WAR over that span. We’d both be “right” by our own arbitrary measuring sticks.
However… this does not mean that such concepts are useless. Categorizing players into “proven” and “unproven” allows us to analyze and interpret these bins to find useful differences. I mean, “hot” and “cold” temperatures are also just arbitrary thresholds, compared to a Kelvin scale. With that said, they’re still useful labels to know when I need a coat outside.
There’s a valid point on basing comparables on results instead of causes/attributes, but man, the weird, paranoid motivation attribution here just makes you sound like a dick.
Dave’s public persona makes it plausible, that’s all. The accusation has a context. He takes criticism so poorly that it becomes reasonable to believe–by no means certain, but reasonable to believe–that he might have collaborated with Jeff. Everyone says he’s a super nice, but as is often pointed out, directly and when it happens, that is not how he appears to a large percentage of people. And the particular manner he is perceived as not being nice is completely in line with colluding with an underling.
Why do the Rays have to trade Price anyways? Yeah, they have some excellent young major league ready pitchers set to fill his spot, but they would obviously still be a better team with him leading their staff. Since they expect to be in the thick of things in the AL East, adding a couple more wins with Price is very valuable.
Of course 1 year from now Price’s value will be lower, but unless they can get a package equal to or better than the one they got for Shields, I don’t see trading him as a necessity.
For the rays to have sustained excellence with their payroll, they kind of need to trade current assets for more long term value.
Yeah, anyone who read this site knows that.
I’m just saying he will still have significant value next off-season as well. Not quite as high obviously, but unless they can get a real top A grade prospect plus a couple other highly regarded prospects, the organization might be better off reaping the benefits of a solid playoff push and marketing him again next offseason.
The Rays have also shown that they don’t just trade their players just for the sake of trading them (Crawford, Upton). Most teams also are more resistant to trading their prospects now than they used to be. If nobody gives up a huge package for Price, why trade him?
Someone will likely come up with a good package, it doesn’t have to be wil Myers to be good, but you’re right, they technically don’t need to just the return is more likely to shrink the longer they wait
Assuming the signing of James Loney at $7M/year happens as expected, the Rays payroll next season already is about $78M.
Their budget probably allows $65-$70M. The only way to cut $8-$13M is by subtracting Price.
It is a near certainty that they already have one or more deals in place except for some details to trade Price for prospects and maybe a very low-cost MLB player or two.
Am I the only one who thinks that signing Loney for multiple years is a blunder for the Rays? He is a guy that would be replacement-level with only a marginal decline and has put up about 3 average (~2 WAR) seasons out of the last seven? While 4-5 WAR for $21m is reasonable at current market rates, the Rays cannot afford current market rates.
If they’re dumping Price to keep Loney, that seems like a sucker’s bet. They’d be much better off to keep him until they get an offer that gives them a young 1B who could do Loney’s job for a fraction of the money. Are 1.5 WAR first basemen a hot commodity now?
I’m fairly certain any deal the Rays make to move Price won’t come off as having ‘dumped’ him!
Morneau gets 6 million per year and he is on the wrong side of… everything, but at least he gets to hit in Colorado. Loney is mediocre, but for 7 mill per… he’s at least young enough to expect improvement on a solid season. So what if he sucked as a Dodger? So… yeah, for 7 mill… 1.5 WAR firstbasemen are pretty rare! Especially when you consider Loney is a 2.7 WAR firstbasman! Haven’t we heard on this site WAR is getting to be worth 6 mill per or more? That makes a 1.5 WAR firstbaseman worth 9 mill per year… so the Rays get an extreme discount even if there 1B declines by 1 WAR! Who liked that comment?
They also don’t NEED him. A rotation of Moore,Cobb,Archer,Hellickson,Odorizzi is still very good.
Correction: the Rays need Price if they are going to challenge in the post-season. They just signed Loney for $21 million, so it looks like they are all in. Living in Florida, I saw many of the Rays games on TV last season and Price, before he went on the DL, definitely was NOT the same pitcher he’d been. So the overall thesis of this blog, Jeff, is quite correct.
Keep in mind most MLB teams need more along the lines of 8 SP to get through a season. Keeping Price at the front of that line slots everyone else into a more appropriate position on the Rays’ depth chart.
Plus, those extra few wins from Price could easily be the difference in a very difficult AL East. I mean, if you squint you can see any of the 5 teams winning the division, or at least making it into the playoffs as a WC team, no?
I’m not sure I’d call that rotation very good. It relies on two pitchers with very little mlb experience, plus Hellickson ain’t exactly a lock to put up quality innings. There’s a lot of talent in those guys for sure, but you take away Price from that group and there’s not a whole lot you can rely on, and I’m not sure about the quality of Tampa’s reinforcements should someone go down or perform poorly. They could be really good, could be really bad, most likely a middling staff.
Hellickson has posted 4 WAR over 3 full seasons (1.3 WAR/yr).
Moore 4.3 WAR over 2 years (~2.2/yr). He obviously has upside but has not lived up to the hype yet.
Odorizzi is projected at under 1 WAR with Oliver and ~1 WAR if you scale Steamer to 150 innings.
Archer was a 1.2 WAR pitcher over ~130 innings, but has upside.
Cobb is very good and has averaged ~2.2WAR over an average of ~140 innings the last 2 years.
I think the Rays reputation is starting to overshadow actual performance. Rays starters last year were average to slightly below average with Price last year (ERA- 100, FI- 103
They just signed Loney for $21 million, so it looks like they are all in!
Because when he hits free agency, there won’t be any way for the Rays to keep him. So, better to deal him now when the return is good than let him walk with nothing to show for it.
They would still get the 1st round compensation pick when he hits free agency. That’s not nothing…
They can get a quality player that’s closer to the majors now
I agree with Josh about payroll and bdhudson about getting the best return, but I think the biggest factor is what you mentioned about the Rays having “having some excellent young major league ready pitchers set to fill his spot.” Teams only have 162 starts per season that they divvy up within the rotation, so if you can swap out excess in one area to shore up a weakness in another then you’ve made your team better. Of course you do run the risk of not actually having the excess you thought, either because of injuries or the replacements perform below expectations.
Because Tampa has limited resources it’s that much important for them to maximize the ones they have. Actually, it would be a pretty interesting exercise to think about what would happen if they went in the opposite direction and traded that extra young pitching instead since it appears to be prized so highly in the market right now (or at least did before Arizona dumped Skaggs).
Rays have not done as well in the draft in recent years since they no longer get top 10 picks. The only way to get young talent now is to trade stars before they hit free agency. You get more trading Price with 2 years left than with a single year, especially if he gets truck down with injury before you trade him.
Price was down for 6 weeks with what the Rays are calling a tricep injury, and such injuries may sometimes be a misdiagnosis of what is actually a UCL injury. Not saying this is the case with Price just that it does signal a bit of an alarm. If the Rays suspect it may have been something more he will be traded sooner rather than later.
The Rays have to trade Price if and only if they receive a deal that has unquestionably greater value to the franchise than he does. The Rays didn’t HAVE to sell Shields, but then they were offered Myers and Odorizzi, at which point they did have to sell him.
I don’t expect to see the Rays sell Price the way some franchises sell their players for any bag of “prospects” (the Cliff Lee trades come to mind). They’ll either get a Wil Myers+ return or they will hold onto him.
Clearly Price will be a bargain-value work horse, even if not furlong.
You’re joke is bad, and you should feel bad.
This account has been posting terrible horse-related jokes for weeks. It’s one of the most confusing developments of the year, for me, along with the site’s background turning to plain white.
You have a problem with the background color of this site??!?
Don’t you listen to the neeeeeeiiiiiggghh sayers…
I second Mr. Englishman’s sentiment. What the hell is this? Why does it continue to exist? And can it please stop?
who gives a flying fork? sheesh. since when did someone’s random comment cause such reactions?
Thanks LaLoosh.
The “John Elway” horse troll seems to have started a few years ago on the ESPN website’s article on Tim Tebow that turned into the “>Tebow” meme.
I lost count of how many times he got banned from that website, only to come back in various disguises (i.e. Juan Elway). He must really be lost looking for a home in a baseball website, since ESPN.com went to Facebook for user comments.
“Such reactions” as “I don’t like this”? Yeah people are really flying off the handle these days.
Would you consider me a WAR horse?
Nay, you are a 100% thoroughbred Mikey boy.
And FYI, I believed this even before I drank the Fangraphs Kool-Aid from my trough. Just neighin.
The John Elway bit makes me giggle a bit every time.
EVERY TIME.
Don’t stop!
Hay thanks A differing opinion!
Also, folks need to remember that even though my mane focus has been football, I was a good baseball player back in the day. I look forward to adding my two cents on the sport more once we get into the FB offseason
I think it’s pretty amazing that all of the Big 3 (Hudson, Mulder, Zito) are on this list, How they couldn’t get out of the 1st round with that young core leading the way is beyond me. And that Beane, due to budget or knowledge of this fact that extremely great pitcher do regress to the mean of average, did non-extend any of them. Interesting
Exactly. This is why I look at the potential Seattle trade and cringe. Over the next 2 season. Price could be very good, but so could Taijuan Walker. Price’s risk of serious decline/injury probably is equal to the chance of Walker not panning out. And I’d rather take the chance on a younger guy I have cheap team control for.
Because back in 2009, the Rays could have traded David Price. He was a top draft pick/prospect and had a ton of value. But they kept him. And they were rewarded with 4 years of having an ace for a bargain bin Price.
Pedro Martinez was unworldy for his 30-31 year seasons as well.
I’d like a bolder prediction on where Price is going. Its hard to do, but this nice gentle hedging mellow you put down tells nothing. How about a prediction on cost, and whether it will bring a team to contention or crater a fanbases hopes and dreams?
Pedro was also a substantially better pitcher.
It always gives me a thrill to look at his B/R page, and then go down to transactions “Traded by the Los Angeles Dodgers to the Montreal Expos for Delino DeShields”. Sweet, sweet music.
Different version of the same study. I took all the pitchers in the last 30 years who posted at least 3.0 fWAR per season in their age 24-27 seasons and 14.0 fWAR total across all four seasons. I did not exclude pitchers based on IP. There were 27 such pitchers with Benes and Zito posting 14.5 and 15.6 total fWAR on the low end and Clemens and Pedro posting 30+ fWAR on the high end.
Collectively these 27 pitchers accrued an average of 20.8 fWAR in those seasons. These same 28 pitchers posted 8.2 fWAR in their age 28 and 29 seasons.
Now, I worry that the sample doesn’t represent Price well enough. It’s too good. Since Rijo is ~ 3 fWAR below David Price on the low end, I will exclude all pitchers with a cumulative fWAR > 21 from the sample. This excludes 12 pitchers: Clemens, Martinez, Santana, Maddux, Sabathia, Lincecum, Greinke, Appier, Saberhagen, Halladay, Verlander, and Stieb.
The remaining 15 pitchers in the sample are:
Jon Lester, Tim Hudson, Ubaldo Jimenez, Brad Radke, Dan Haren, Ben Sheets, Mike Witt, Frank Viola, Jack McDowell, Jake Peavy, Greg Swindell, Tom Glavine, Jered Weaver, Barry Zito, Andy Benes
Collectively, they pitched 219 innings and accrued 17.8 fWAR and a FIP- of 85. This compares favorably to Price’s 208 IP, 17.4 fWAR and 83 FIP-.
Collectively in their age 28-29 seasons, this group pitched 382 innings, accrued 6.6 fWAR and posted a 90 FIP-. Worse outcomes for this group include: Swindell, Jimenez, Witt, and Zito, who all posted between 3-4 fWAR. Best outcomes for this group include Viola @ 12.2 fWAR, Haren @ 9.7 and Weaver @8.6 fWAR. Everyone else accrued between 4-8 fWAR during their age 28-29 seasons.
TLDR:
Basically, a team can expect a total of 3 fWAR at the absolute worst and 8-12 fWAR at the absolute best from Price’s age 28-29 seasons. The mean expectation would be a 3.3 fWAR/season starter who can pitch 180+ innings.
Addendum: At an expected arb3 cost of $13.1M and arb4 cost of $17.5M, and a very generous price/WAR of $7M, Price will accrue $15.7M in surplus value over the next two years. At a much more conservative $6.2M/win price that Cameron reported earlier this off-season, Price will be worth $10.4M in surplus value.
Excellent analysis (better than Jeff’s). Thanks.
Note that Lester appears in both lists here, as well as the bbref similiarity score top 10.
Also, note Price’s dramatic drop to 1.3 BB/IP in his age 27 season. Another big lefty with similarly good stuff sharpened his control to 1.3 BB/IP in his age 27 season, and went on to have 13+ WAR over the following 2 seasons (C.C. Sabbathia).
I think teams do factor in risk in awarding contracts or determining trade compensation. Otherwise, 6 WAR players would make 35 million a year on the open market (if they took a 1 yr deal). Instead they take 50-70 cents on the dollar to sign 7-10 yr deals.
As far as trade compensation goes, the players/prospects you give up are no lock either. They could be better or worse. .
Being a good GM requires good risk management skills. They must embrace the uncertainty that petrifies the average Joe, but do so rationally. Teams that avoid any risk, like the Astros and Marlins are doomed to fail more often than not. Those that do not manage risk well end up like the Yankees, signing 37 yo players like Beltran for his age 37-39 season and giving up a few years of peak Cano for fear of his age 37-40 years which will be paid in depreciated dollars (as much as 30-40% and about what Beltran is making in 2014 dollars).
Seriously?
there are 30 teams (now)… so… an “average” team should have one WS victory (or at least 2 WS appearances) over the last 30 years… right?
Last 30 years:
Astros: lost 1 WS, lost 2 NCLS, lost 4 NLDS. That seems about average? Maybe slightly below. Certainly no cause for shame.
Marlins: won 2 WS. PLUS, they’ve only been in existence for 21 years, so they still have 9 years to tack on some extra…. and they are already well above average.
Yankees: won 5 WS. (did you catch that? FIVE f-ing WS wins… and I’m a Philly fan, I’m NOT a Yankee fan) Plus 2 WS losses. Plus 3 ALCS losses, plus 7 LDS losses.
Every other team in baseball wishes they had the “lousy GM” record the Yankees have. And most would be happy with the Marlins or the Astros too.
sorry… that was supposed to be a response to “pft”… not the original post.
I disagree with your argument. PFT references some very recent moves as examples of his risk theorem. However, you turn that into a 30 year argument which is not even applicable to his comment. Do more research on those Yankees teams and tell me what % of them were comprised of players 35+ yo. Plus, you start off right away assuming an average team should have one WS victory which is OBVIOUSLY FLAWED.
The Marlins have had only two playoff appearances, and both were as wildcards. That tells me a lot more about the state of the Marlins franchise than the fact that both times they happened to win the World Series both times.
I think I’d rather trade for Cliff Lee now if he’s really available. He’s not cheap but you know what you’re getting and he’s under contract for 3 more seasons (1 more than Price). Seattle is better off trying to deal for him than Price imo… Hultzen, Pike, Taylor?
Lee can block trades to 21 teams I believe…
I would love to see the Giants get Price.