2020 ZiPS Projections: Cleveland Indians

After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for eight years. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Cleveland Indians.

Batters

The bad news is that the Indians have a very run-of-the-mill offense with an outfield that has been, is, and ought to be a significant hole, one that they’ve done little to fill. The good news is that the Indians have a very run-of-the-mill offense with an outfield that has been, is, and ought to be, a significant hole, one that they’ve done little to fill, but an offense that also features Francisco Lindor and José Ramírez.

There’s little doubt at this point that Lindor, the slick-fielding shortstop prospect whose bat profiled a bit like Luis Alicea’s, has evolved into Francisco Lindor, the best shortstop in baseball. After all, Manny Machado‘s a third baseman, Carlos Correa has an injury record to overcome, Corey Seager’s a step behind, and Xander Bogaerts can’t match the glove. Alicea was a perfectly good player for a long time, but this Lindor is on a Hall of Fame trajectory, with ZiPS now projecting him to finish with around 80 wins, a .279/.339/.490 career line, 443 homers, and 2600 hits. He’s become the kind of player Cleveland will have a hard time doing without, which is why fans of the 2020 team should be worried about the trade rumors.

ZiPS is largely unconcerned with José Ramírez’s decidedly mixed results in 2019. Given his age and history, it would be surprising if 2019’s overall line represented a new, much less exciting baseline expectation. It’s not completely unheard of for a young star infielder to simply disappear in their mid-to-late 20s — Cleveland has had direct experience with that in Carlos Baerga — but it’s not the norm. ZiPS believes that DHing will suit Franmil Reyes and that Carlos Santana can age gracefully after his 2019 comeback season. Cesar Hernandez is no star at second, but he’s a serviceable stopgap and an improvement over hoping Jason Kipnis will turn back the clock five years.

The outfield, unfortunately, is still a mess, and ZiPS doesn’t see the team getting a league-average performance at any position. The system is prepared to believe in Jordan Luplow, both because of his offensive improvements and the fact that his small sample of defensive stats in the majors is consistent with ZiPS’ minor league estimates.

Pitchers

The rotation is one place that Cleveland really could have used an extra arm. ZiPS is hardly going to abandon Shane Bieber after projecting him as a top 15 starter out of the blue, so it shouldn’t be a shock that the projections still like him after that actually happened. Similarly, Mike Clevinger is another top-of-the-rotation candidate, and a full season of him would dull a lot of the pain from the team no longer having prime-year Corey Kluber. There’s obviously some uncertainty around Carlos Carrasco, but ZiPS still thinks Cookie will be one of the best third starters in the majors.

But there’s a drop to the rest of the rotation, and even if Cleveland signing Gerrit Cole was a completely unrealistic result, I’d have liked the team to go after an innings-eater such as Rick Porcello — who would likely be more useful to Cleveland than to most teams — or take a chance on someone like Alex Wood. Right now, the difference between what ZiPS projects for the Minnesota Twins and the Cleveland Indians is Josh Donaldson; it would be cruelly poetic (projectic?) if being one player short was what kept Cleveland out of the playoffs again in 2020.

What ZiPS does really like is the bullpen. James Karinchak’s command is shakier than Thomas Keefer’s, but he’s going to strike out an obscene number of batters with that fastball and knuckle-curve. The only reliever the computer is really down on is Adam Cimber. That makes me sad because he’s both a submariner and shares a name with one of Caesar’s assassins, which amuses a history nut like me. ZiPS also likes some of the spare relievers Cleveland has hanging around at the back of the depth chart, like James Hoyt and Phil Maton. Emmanuel Clase gets a terrific projection for a very young reliever with limited major league experience, but given that he was the important piece in the Kluber trade (even a much reduced Kluber), I can hardly claim ZiPS is pulling this one out of the blue.

Prospects

ZiPS remains downright frosty on Bobby Bradley, a first base prospect ZiPS has never seen developing into an offensive force. It still doesn’t, at no point projecting Bradley to have even a .750 OPS as his baseline expectation during his career. If ZiPS is frosty on Bradley, it’s downright heat-death-of-the-universey on Jake Bauers, who while technically no longer a prospect, remains the age of one. Combining major league performance with minor league translations, ZiPS has yet to see a Bauers season as having a .400 SLG or a .700 OPS.

One player who ZiPS really does like is Nolan Jones. His 2020 projection already puts him in the middle of the league at third base. ZiPS takes the side that Jones will be able to handle third defensively in the majors, and his zDEF minor league estimates have improved by leaps and bounds, from -10 in a half-year in 2017 to -4 runs in 2018, to three runs in the black in 2019.

One pedantic note for 2020: for the WAR graphic, I’m using FanGraphs’ depth charts playing time, not the playing time ZiPS spits out, so there will be occasional differences in WAR totals.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here.

Batters – Standard
Player B Age PO PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS
Francisco Lindor B 26 SS 709 637 113 184 41 3 34 93 59 101 22 6
Jose Ramirez B 27 3B 607 533 91 150 39 4 28 97 65 77 28 5
Carlos Santana B 34 1B 606 510 80 129 27 2 24 82 89 95 3 1
Yasiel Puig R 29 RF 561 508 69 133 26 2 24 84 44 118 16 7
Franmil Reyes R 24 DH 555 501 74 128 22 1 35 100 48 170 1 1
Cesar Hernandez B 30 2B 654 585 77 156 23 4 13 59 60 117 13 5
Nolan Jones L 22 3B 555 482 65 112 18 2 22 57 68 181 4 3
Roberto Perez R 31 C 370 320 34 68 12 1 14 52 38 108 0 0
Jordan Luplow R 26 RF 428 374 57 91 20 2 16 58 47 105 5 4
Oscar Mercado R 25 CF 600 542 73 136 28 3 12 57 41 124 27 12
Jason Kipnis L 33 2B 510 456 56 112 26 2 15 63 42 98 7 2
Bradley Zimmer L 27 CF 362 322 43 71 14 2 12 40 32 137 17 4
Tyler Naquin L 29 RF 335 310 38 83 16 2 10 39 19 81 4 2
Tyler Freeman R 21 SS 544 503 57 131 30 4 3 39 18 68 14 5
Bobby Bradley L 24 1B 527 479 60 106 24 2 25 71 42 179 1 1
Leonys Martin L 32 CF 375 340 45 78 14 2 11 34 27 103 10 5
Yu Chang R 24 SS 432 390 47 83 18 2 11 44 32 132 5 2
Mike Freeman L 32 2B 318 282 34 66 10 1 5 27 27 82 4 3
Christian Arroyo R 25 3B 279 258 29 64 15 1 7 33 16 61 2 1
Delino DeShields R 27 CF 464 405 58 91 16 2 6 29 44 122 27 6
Jake Bauers L 24 LF 555 485 65 110 28 2 16 65 62 151 12 6
Daniel Johnson L 24 RF 539 492 60 119 24 4 15 57 35 141 12 8
Logan Ice B 25 C 296 264 25 57 7 1 5 19 26 79 0 0
Ka’ai Tom L 26 RF 523 469 60 109 22 5 16 59 43 143 7 6
Greg Allen B 27 RF 484 433 57 104 19 4 7 40 27 105 20 7
Ryan Flaherty L 33 3B 413 368 42 77 14 1 8 35 38 116 3 2
Andrew Velazquez B 25 CF 387 362 41 83 16 4 8 36 20 112 11 6
Steven Kwan L 22 CF 550 504 56 127 23 6 3 38 38 66 9 7
Hanley Ramirez R 36 1B 379 339 42 80 14 0 16 53 35 86 3 2
Sandy León B 31 C 267 242 26 51 9 0 6 26 18 68 0 1
Ernie Clement R 24 SS 465 431 46 104 20 3 2 29 23 44 14 10
Beau Taylor L 30 C 313 273 32 56 13 1 6 26 36 95 0 0
Tyler Friis B 24 2B 293 263 27 55 12 1 3 21 27 55 8 6
Sicnarf Loopstok R 27 C 365 322 39 63 12 1 12 36 31 131 5 5
Dioner Navarro B 36 C 249 224 20 49 9 0 5 27 20 52 1 1
Connor Marabell L 26 RF 522 491 52 121 27 2 10 50 25 83 6 3
Wilson Garcia B 26 1B 416 398 41 101 23 1 13 54 13 60 0 0
Mitch Longo L 25 LF 404 373 41 85 18 2 6 32 24 99 10 3
Gavin Collins R 24 C 372 344 35 73 18 1 8 38 20 75 1 3
Adam Rosales R 37 3B 319 297 27 63 9 0 7 23 17 95 1 1
Jodd Carter R 23 RF 452 406 46 81 15 2 13 41 38 126 7 6
Mike Papi L 27 RF 346 300 36 59 13 0 8 28 39 106 2 2
Kungkuan Giljegiljaw R 26 C 361 335 34 71 14 0 9 34 20 110 0 0
Trenton Brooks L 24 RF 466 424 45 94 24 2 10 45 33 87 1 2
Tyler Krieger B 26 3B 417 378 41 81 15 2 7 33 29 113 11 7
Austen Wade L 24 CF 243 218 21 42 8 1 3 15 23 73 4 6
Trayce Thompson R 29 CF 358 331 37 60 12 2 13 40 25 135 5 3
Nellie Rodríguez R 26 1B 384 343 37 55 12 0 15 42 35 192 0 0
Oscar Gonzalez R 22 LF 525 509 46 118 22 2 11 49 11 117 5 6
Jorma Rodriguez R 24 3B 362 339 27 66 10 1 2 17 14 109 5 5
Mitch Reeves R 25 1B 464 417 42 85 18 1 6 34 39 130 3 4

Batters – Advanced
Player BA OBP SLG OPS+ ISO BABIP RC/27 Def WAR No. 1 Comp
Francisco Lindor .289 .351 .523 126 .234 .299 7.1 9 6.5 Cal Ripken
Jose Ramirez .281 .361 .527 130 .246 .285 7.5 4 5.2 Bobby Thomson
Carlos Santana .253 .365 .455 115 .202 .269 6.0 1 2.5 Darrell Evans
Yasiel Puig .262 .324 .463 104 .201 .298 5.5 4 2.1 Juan Encarnacion
Franmil Reyes .255 .319 .513 114 .257 .314 5.9 0 2.1 Adam LaRoche
Cesar Hernandez .267 .338 .386 91 .120 .314 4.9 0 2.0 Felipe Lopez
Nolan Jones .232 .330 .415 95 .183 .323 4.8 1 1.9 Aramis Ramirez
Roberto Perez .213 .298 .388 79 .175 .273 4.0 11 1.8 Kelly Stinnett
Jordan Luplow .243 .334 .436 101 .193 .296 5.1 7 1.8 Michael Cuddyer
Oscar Mercado .251 .310 .380 81 .129 .305 4.3 2 1.2 John Wehner
Jason Kipnis .246 .312 .410 88 .164 .283 4.6 -1 1.2 Chris Truby
Bradley Zimmer .220 .300 .388 80 .168 .341 4.3 4 1.0 Lou Collier
Tyler Naquin .268 .311 .429 93 .161 .333 4.9 5 1.0 George Vukovich
Tyler Freeman .260 .309 .354 75 .093 .296 4.1 1 0.9 Ozzie Guillen
Bobby Bradley .221 .287 .436 87 .215 .295 4.3 6 0.7 Kevin Witt
Leonys Martin .229 .292 .379 76 .150 .296 3.9 4 0.7 Damon Buford
Yu Chang .213 .278 .354 65 .141 .291 3.4 6 0.6 Justin Baum
Mike Freeman .234 .306 .330 68 .096 .313 3.5 6 0.5 Ron Oester
Christian Arroyo .248 .299 .395 81 .147 .300 4.2 2 0.5 Joe Crede
Delino DeShields .225 .304 .319 65 .094 .307 3.8 3 0.5 Roger Bernadina
Jake Bauers .227 .316 .392 86 .165 .296 4.3 0 0.4 Dustin Majewski
Daniel Johnson .242 .299 .398 82 .157 .310 4.2 4 0.4 Felix Jose
Logan Ice .216 .289 .307 58 .091 .289 3.1 4 0.3 Jeff Tackett
Ka’ai Tom .232 .303 .403 84 .171 .300 4.2 1 0.3 Jessie Reid
Greg Allen .240 .307 .351 74 .111 .302 4.0 5 0.2 Chris Roberson
Ryan Flaherty .209 .287 .318 60 .109 .283 3.1 8 0.2 Chris Saunders
Andrew Velazquez .229 .275 .362 66 .133 .310 3.5 3 0.1 Alexis Gomez
Steven Kwan .252 .306 .339 71 .087 .285 3.6 2 0.1 Miguel Flores
Hanley Ramirez .236 .314 .419 91 .183 .270 4.6 -3 0.1 Roy Smalley
Sandy León .211 .269 .322 55 .112 .268 2.9 3 0.1 Chad Moeller
Ernie Clement .241 .286 .316 59 .074 .265 3.1 5 0.0 Manuel Mayorson
Beau Taylor .205 .300 .326 66 .121 .291 3.3 -3 0.0 Jack Fimple
Tyler Friis .209 .284 .297 54 .087 .254 2.7 5 -0.1 Vicente Garcia
Sicnarf Loopstok .196 .280 .351 65 .155 .285 3.1 -3 -0.3 Jayhawk Owens
Dioner Navarro .219 .282 .326 60 .107 .263 3.1 -3 -0.4 Elston Howard
Connor Marabell .246 .284 .371 71 .124 .279 3.8 3 -0.4 Virgil Chevalier
Wilson Garcia .254 .277 .415 79 .161 .271 4.2 -1 -0.5 Carlos Rivera
Mitch Longo .228 .280 .335 62 .107 .295 3.4 3 -0.6 Ed Yacopino
Gavin Collins .212 .261 .340 57 .128 .249 2.9 -3 -0.6 Walt McKeel
Adam Rosales .212 .260 .313 51 .101 .287 2.8 1 -0.7 Jeff Branson
Jodd Carter .200 .274 .342 62 .143 .255 3.0 3 -0.8 Kelcey Mucker
Mike Papi .197 .294 .320 62 .123 .274 3.1 -1 -0.8 Greg Patton
Kungkuan Giljegiljaw .212 .263 .334 56 .122 .287 3.0 -6 -0.9 Alvin Colina
Trenton Brooks .222 .282 .358 68 .137 .257 3.4 -2 -1.0 Jason Friedman
Tyler Krieger .214 .275 .320 57 .106 .287 2.9 -4 -1.2 Mike Jirschele
Austen Wade .193 .269 .280 46 .087 .275 2.1 -4 -1.2 Ramon Zapata
Trayce Thompson .181 .240 .347 52 .166 .257 2.7 -5 -1.4 Greg Catalanotte
Nellie Rodríguez .160 .240 .327 48 .166 .294 2.5 -1 -1.8 Brad Ripplemeyer
Oscar Gonzalez .232 .248 .348 55 .116 .281 2.9 -1 -2.2 Maikel Jova
Jorma Rodriguez .195 .232 .248 27 .053 .281 1.8 0 -2.2 Rex Rundgren
Mitch Reeves .204 .276 .295 51 .091 .281 2.6 -3 -2.2 Tyler Eastley

Pitchers – Standard
Player T Age W L ERA G GS IP H ER HR BB SO FIP
Shane Bieber R 25 13 8 3.63 32 31 195.7 184 79 26 34 213 3.36
Mike Clevinger R 29 11 7 3.62 27 26 146.7 121 59 18 54 175 3.56
Carlos Carrasco R 33 10 8 3.97 27 21 131.3 123 58 23 30 152 3.92
Zach Plesac R 25 10 9 4.58 30 30 159.3 164 81 24 52 131 4.60
Brad Hand L 30 6 3 3.22 63 0 64.3 49 23 9 22 89 3.49
Aaron Civale R 25 8 7 4.80 23 23 123.7 135 66 22 29 96 4.79
Eli Morgan R 24 7 8 5.11 26 26 130.3 141 74 25 44 112 5.13
Danny Salazar R 30 5 5 4.64 17 15 73.7 69 38 12 36 86 4.47
Emmanuel Clase R 22 6 4 3.64 60 0 64.3 62 26 7 17 57 3.80
Scott Moss L 25 8 9 5.10 26 26 121.7 119 69 20 70 125 5.16
Adam Scott L 24 9 10 5.18 26 25 123.3 132 71 25 46 110 5.32
Phil Maton R 27 3 2 3.88 55 0 65.0 57 28 9 23 80 3.72
James Karinchak R 24 2 1 3.35 38 0 37.7 22 14 4 29 68 3.42
James Hoyt R 33 2 1 3.86 46 1 49.0 44 21 6 21 55 3.94
Adam Plutko R 28 8 9 5.34 25 23 124.7 136 74 25 37 99 5.23
Nick Wittgren R 29 4 3 4.08 55 0 57.3 55 26 9 17 58 4.14
Jefry Rodriguez R 26 6 6 5.26 24 18 99.3 103 58 14 54 80 5.18
Oliver Pérez L 38 3 2 3.86 57 0 35.0 31 15 5 12 41 4.07
Kyle Nelson L 23 5 4 4.17 42 1 45.3 41 21 8 15 53 4.33
Hunter Wood R 26 3 2 4.19 59 0 58.0 56 27 9 23 60 4.42
Michael Peoples R 28 7 8 5.50 22 20 121.0 139 74 23 36 87 5.28
Jared Robinson R 25 5 5 4.48 40 0 66.3 62 33 7 39 66 4.46
Jake Paulson R 28 7 9 5.50 26 18 109.7 131 67 17 41 62 5.35
Triston McKenzie R 22 4 4 5.43 12 12 58.0 61 35 11 25 53 5.27
Nick Sandlin R 23 1 1 4.15 26 0 26.0 23 12 4 12 32 4.22
Logan Allen L 23 7 8 5.54 26 22 112.0 119 69 23 51 105 5.50
Adam Cimber R 29 4 4 4.55 62 0 57.3 61 29 8 17 42 4.63
Robert Broom R 23 3 2 4.55 43 0 55.3 53 28 7 29 54 4.61
David Speer L 27 3 3 4.88 39 3 55.3 60 30 9 22 39 5.24
Dominic Leone R 28 2 1 4.64 61 0 66.0 60 34 12 31 81 4.54
Mitch Talbot R 36 4 5 5.62 15 15 73.7 85 46 12 29 44 5.45
Cody Anderson R 29 2 3 5.62 16 10 48.0 55 30 10 18 41 5.43
Sam Hentges L 23 6 8 5.79 24 24 116.7 128 75 20 69 94 5.75
Randy Valladares L 25 1 1 5.17 21 0 31.3 31 18 3 23 26 5.16
Cam Hill R 26 3 3 5.22 28 0 29.3 28 17 7 14 36 5.36
Argenis Angulo R 26 3 3 5.14 47 1 56.0 51 32 8 41 64 5.11
Eli Lingos L 24 3 4 5.67 31 10 93.7 105 59 20 36 71 5.78
Jordan Stephens R 27 6 9 5.87 24 18 102.7 115 67 22 43 85 5.74
Danny Young L 26 2 2 5.26 40 0 49.7 52 29 6 29 37 5.19
Henry Martinez R 26 2 3 5.30 46 0 54.3 58 32 8 27 43 5.17
Ben Krauth L 26 2 3 5.56 35 0 56.7 58 35 9 38 52 5.58
Dalbert Siri R 24 2 3 5.84 47 0 44.7 43 29 7 37 47 5.80
Kyle Dowdy R 27 5 8 6.15 28 13 86.3 99 59 18 43 67 6.01
Tanner Tully L 25 8 11 6.13 25 24 130.7 168 89 31 29 70 6.02
Anthony Gose L 29 1 3 8.61 30 0 23.0 25 22 6 33 23 9.14

Pitchers – Advanced
Player K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BB% K% BABIP ERA+ ERA- WAR No. 1 Comp
Shane Bieber 9.8 1.6 1.2 4.3% 26.7% .304 123 81 4.3 Rick Reuschel
Mike Clevinger 10.7 3.3 1.1 8.9% 28.7% .287 124 81 3.2 Ben McDonald
Carlos Carrasco 10.4 2.1 1.6 5.5% 28.0% .299 113 89 2.4 Esteban Loaiza
Zach Plesac 7.4 2.9 1.4 7.5% 19.0% .295 98 102 1.9 Mel Stottlemyre
Brad Hand 12.5 3.1 1.3 8.3% 33.6% .286 139 72 1.3 John Hiller
Aaron Civale 7.0 2.1 1.6 5.5% 18.0% .298 93 107 1.2 Fred Newman
Eli Morgan 7.7 3.0 1.7 7.7% 19.5% .301 88 114 0.8 Cha-Seung Baek
Danny Salazar 10.5 4.4 1.5 11.2% 26.7% .305 97 104 0.8 Wade Miller
Emmanuel Clase 8.0 2.4 1.0 6.3% 21.0% .296 123 81 0.8 Lindy McDaniel
Scott Moss 9.2 5.2 1.5 12.7% 22.6% .299 88 114 0.8 Greg Kubes
Adam Scott 8.0 3.4 1.8 8.4% 20.1% .299 87 116 0.7 Randy Lerch
Phil Maton 11.1 3.2 1.2 8.4% 29.2% .302 116 86 0.6 Hipolito Pichardo
James Karinchak 16.2 6.9 1.0 17.7% 41.5% .295 134 75 0.6 Gregg Olson
James Hoyt 10.1 3.9 1.1 10.0% 26.1% .299 116 86 0.5 Chad Paronto
Adam Plutko 7.1 2.7 1.8 6.8% 18.2% .294 84 119 0.5 Steve Finch
Nick Wittgren 9.1 2.7 1.4 7.1% 24.1% .295 110 91 0.4 Kent Tekulve
Jefry Rodriguez 7.2 4.9 1.3 11.9% 17.7% .297 85 117 0.4 Brett Laxton
Oliver Pérez 10.5 3.1 1.3 8.0% 27.3% .295 116 86 0.4 Brian Shouse
Kyle Nelson 10.5 3.0 1.6 7.8% 27.6% .292 108 93 0.4 Norm Montoya
Hunter Wood 9.3 3.6 1.4 9.2% 23.9% .299 107 93 0.3 Ehren Wassermann
Michael Peoples 6.5 2.7 1.7 6.7% 16.2% .303 81 123 0.3 Pat Ahearne
Jared Robinson 9.0 5.3 0.9 13.1% 22.1% .301 100 100 0.2 Joe Hudson
Jake Paulson 5.1 3.4 1.4 8.2% 12.4% .306 82 123 0.2 Jim Magrane
Triston McKenzie 8.2 3.9 1.7 9.7% 20.5% .299 83 121 0.2 Peter Estrada
Nick Sandlin 11.1 4.2 1.4 10.7% 28.6% .302 108 93 0.2 Bobby Castillo
Logan Allen 8.4 4.1 1.8 10.1% 20.8% .301 81 124 0.2 Wes Whisler
Adam Cimber 6.6 2.7 1.3 6.8% 16.8% .296 98 102 0.1 Clay Carroll
Robert Broom 8.8 4.7 1.1 11.7% 21.9% .299 98 102 0.1 Erv Palica
David Speer 6.3 3.6 1.5 8.9% 15.8% .293 92 109 0.1 Hal Woodeshick
Dominic Leone 11.0 4.2 1.6 10.8% 28.3% .298 97 103 0.1 Roy Corcoran
Mitch Talbot 5.4 3.5 1.5 8.7% 13.2% .299 80 125 0.1 Scott Erickson
Cody Anderson 7.7 3.4 1.9 8.4% 19.1% .313 80 125 0.0 Jeff Farnsworth
Sam Hentges 7.3 5.3 1.5 12.7% 17.2% .304 77 129 -0.1 Mike Wodnicki
Randy Valladares 7.5 6.6 0.9 15.5% 17.6% .298 87 115 -0.1 Brian Adams
Cam Hill 11.0 4.3 2.1 10.9% 27.9% .296 86 116 -0.2 Steve LaRose
Argenis Angulo 10.3 6.6 1.3 15.8% 24.7% .301 87 115 -0.2 Marc Pisciotta
Eli Lingos 6.8 3.5 1.9 8.6% 16.9% .295 79 126 -0.2 Jim Baron
Jordan Stephens 7.5 3.8 1.9 9.3% 18.3% .302 76 131 -0.2 Mickey Callaway
Danny Young 6.7 5.3 1.1 12.7% 16.2% .299 85 117 -0.3 Brian Adams
Henry Martinez 7.1 4.5 1.3 10.9% 17.4% .301 85 118 -0.3 Andy Nezelek
Ben Krauth 8.3 6.0 1.4 14.3% 19.6% .301 81 124 -0.5 Brian Adams
Dalbert Siri 9.5 7.5 1.4 17.3% 22.0% .300 77 130 -0.5 Dave Cole
Kyle Dowdy 7.0 4.5 1.9 10.8% 16.8% .305 73 137 -0.6 Danny Kolb
Tanner Tully 4.8 2.0 2.1 5.0% 12.0% .306 73 137 -0.6 Bobby Livingston
Anthony Gose 9.0 12.9 2.3 26.0% 18.1% .302 52 192 -1.0 Mark Watson

Players are listed with their most recent teams wherever possible. This includes players who are unsigned, players who will miss 2020 due to injury, and players who were released in 2019. So yes, if you see Joe Schmoe, who quit baseball back in June to form a ska-cowpunk Luxembourgian bubblegum pop-death metal band, he’s still listed here intentionally.

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in the full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR.

ZiPS is agnostic about future playing time by design. For more information about ZiPS, please refer to this article.

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Dan Szymborski is a senior writer for FanGraphs and the developer of the ZiPS projection system. He was a writer for ESPN.com from 2010-2018, a regular guest on a number of radio shows and podcasts, and a voting BBWAA member. He also maintains a terrible Twitter account at @DSzymborski.

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Cave Dameron
Member
Cave Dameron

What’s the projection on when they change their name to something other than Indians?

Robbie314
Member
Member
Robbie314

Thanks to a wise commenter a few days ago, I learned that they already did once, more than a hundred years ago, after their then-best player Nap Lajoie.

They could try that trick again, although “Cleveland Lindors” doesn’t sound nearly as good as “Los Angeles Trout”.

fjtorres
Member
fjtorres

Their best bet would be to try to redeem the original one: Spiders.