ZiPSing Up the Trade Deadline
The 2024 trade deadline is now in the history books, so it’s time for a post-mortem on how it went. As I do every year, I set the ZiPS projection system the task of seeing which teams moved their division, playoff, and championship probabilities the most. The methodology is relatively simple: I take the ZiPS projected standings the morning after the trade deadline and compare them to a second set of projections in which I undo every trade that was made over the prior three weeks. I always find the results fascinating because people often underestimate the secondary effects of the deadline, such as how a team did relative to their competition, how a team’s strength of schedule can change based on the strength of their opponents, and how the contours of the Wild Card races change when a competitor effectively drops out or suddenly gets better.
With players like Tarik Skubal, Garrett Crochet, Luis Robert Jr., and Blake Snell staying put, there weren’t many impact trades, but it was still a busy deadline. On the whole, ZiPS found this deadline to be considerably more consequential than last year’s. In 2023, ZiPS only projected three teams as having moved their playoff probability by at least five percentage points, while this year, there were eight. In fact, two of the changes were the largest percentage-point shifts that ZiPS has seen as long as I’ve been doing this, one positive (Baltimore), one negative (Tampa Bay).
Note that this is only measuring 2024 impact. A team doing poorly here doesn’t necessarily mean that club had an awful trade deadline, and vice-versa. If the Giants had traded Jorge Soler for, say, Xavier Isaac and Carson Williams, they’d show up as losing here, but I think we’d all agree they’d have absolutely crushed the deadline.
The table below is currently sorted by change in playoff probability, but all of the columns are sortable if you click on the header:
| Team | Div% | Before | Diff | Playoff% | Before | Diff | WS Win% | Before | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kansas City Royals | 6.8% | 4.9% | 1.9% | 51.0% | 42.5% | 8.5% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 0.2% |
| New York Mets | 5.8% | 4.8% | 1.0% | 57.4% | 49.2% | 8.2% | 3.3% | 2.6% | 0.7% |
| Boston Red Sox | 1.3% | 2.1% | -0.8% | 43.6% | 36.7% | 6.8% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 0.1% |
| Atlanta Braves | 9.2% | 8.5% | 0.7% | 68.6% | 63.3% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 0.4% |
| San Diego Padres | 12.0% | 14.0% | -2.0% | 62.9% | 59.7% | 3.2% | 4.4% | 4.5% | -0.1% |
| Baltimore Orioles | 56.8% | 47.3% | 9.5% | 98.8% | 95.7% | 3.2% | 16.0% | 10.7% | 5.3% |
| Chicago Cubs | 3.9% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 8.4% | 5.6% | 2.8% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| Los Angeles Dodgers | 76.8% | 69.5% | 7.3% | 96.3% | 93.6% | 2.7% | 12.6% | 10.2% | 2.4% |
| Seattle Mariners | 45.7% | 44.7% | 1.0% | 53.9% | 51.2% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 2.8% | -0.2% |
| Houston Astros | 36.8% | 36.0% | 0.8% | 45.0% | 42.5% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 2.4% | -0.2% |
| New York Yankees | 41.8% | 49.0% | -7.2% | 97.8% | 95.9% | 1.8% | 12.9% | 12.6% | 0.2% |
| Minnesota Twins | 16.9% | 16.8% | 0.1% | 72.7% | 71.6% | 1.1% | 5.1% | 6.3% | -1.2% |
| Milwaukee Brewers | 67.3% | 64.2% | 3.1% | 76.3% | 75.7% | 0.6% | 2.4% | 3.1% | -0.7% |
| Philadelphia Phillies | 85.0% | 86.7% | -1.7% | 98.9% | 98.7% | 0.2% | 12.5% | 13.6% | -1.1% |
| Washington Nationals | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Chicago White Sox | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Colorado Rockies | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Miami Marlins | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Oakland A’s | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Cleveland Guardians | 76.2% | 78.1% | -1.9% | 97.0% | 97.0% | 0.0% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 0.5% |
| Los Angeles Angels | 0.2% | 0.3% | -0.1% | 0.2% | 0.4% | -0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Texas Rangers | 17.4% | 19.0% | -1.6% | 23.4% | 24.1% | -0.6% | 1.5% | 1.9% | -0.4% |
| Arizona Diamondbacks | 10.2% | 13.8% | -3.6% | 59.5% | 60.7% | -1.2% | 4.2% | 5.3% | -1.1% |
| Toronto Blue Jays | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.8% | 5.1% | -3.3% | 0.1% | 0.3% | -0.3% |
| Detroit Tigers | 0.0% | 0.2% | -0.2% | 1.8% | 5.1% | -3.3% | 0.0% | 0.2% | -0.2% |
| St. Louis Cardinals | 14.0% | 15.0% | -0.9% | 26.2% | 29.5% | -3.3% | 0.8% | 1.3% | -0.5% |
| Pittsburgh Pirates | 9.3% | 11.2% | -1.9% | 18.4% | 23.3% | -5.0% | 0.4% | 0.8% | -0.4% |
| Cincinnati Reds | 5.5% | 7.5% | -1.9% | 11.7% | 16.7% | -5.1% | 0.4% | 1.0% | -0.6% |
| San Francisco Giants | 1.0% | 2.7% | -1.7% | 14.8% | 23.6% | -8.7% | 0.8% | 2.0% | -1.3% |
| Tampa Bay Rays | 0.1% | 1.6% | -1.5% | 13.1% | 32.3% | -19.2% | 0.3% | 2.0% | -1.8% |
In terms of playoff probability, the Kansas City Royals head the list, though they remain long-shots to catch Cleveland and their World Series winning percentage didn’t budge that much. They didn’t make any huge additions, but Michael Lorenzen, Paul DeJong, Lucas Erceg, and Hunter Harvey are all generally replacing below-replacement talent. What benefitted Kansas City the most, however, is what happened elsewhere. Two teams in their division got noticeably weaker, and while that benefits the Guardians as well, ZiPS already saw Cleveland’s fate as being less up in the air. ZiPS also doesn’t expect Cleveland to need to make the playoffs via the Wild Card, but the Royals, like the other AL Wild Card teams, got the extra benefit of the Rays killing off their playoff shot.
The Mets didn’t land a star either, but ZiPS is a big fan of their remade bullpen, especially Huascar Brazoban, and it’s optimistic about the impact of Paul Blackburn and Jesse Winker. The team also had the advantage of being right on the edge of a knife entering the deadline, so extra wins here are incredibly high leverage. It also helps that, apart from the Padres, several NL Wild Card contenders treaded water.
The Red Sox don’t really feel like a winner to me — though the computer really likes Danny Jansen and the full-fat ZiPS is far more optimistic about James Paxton than the in-season model — but ZiPS has them benefitting the most from the Rays and Blue Jays getting a good bit worse.
Atlanta didn’t bolster their rotation, but getting a corner outfield bat in Soler was absolutely crucial to help slow the team’s fall given the other choices available.
In terms of wins added, ZiPS sees the Orioles and Dodgers as the big winners, though you see the change more in their championship probability rather than the playoff numbers, given that both teams were already overwhelmingly likely to make the postseason. ZiPS was really worried about the back of Baltimore’s rotation come playoff time, and as a result, adding Zach Eflin was a big Eflin deal, so much so that the O’s got a larger World Series boost than any other team at the deadline, and they did it without trading away any of their best talent. Also helpful was the trade with the Phillies; while Austin Hays has value, he didn’t have much value to the Orioles given their roster, making Seranthony Domínguez and Cristian Pache, for all intents and purposes, free additions. ZiPS also still likes Trevor Rogers, as it doesn’t take my constant disappointment that he’s not a triplet with Taylor and Tyler into account.
Turning to the Dodgers, Jack Flaherty has been terrific. ZiPS thinks that Los Angeles did the best in the White Sox/Cardinals/Dodgers three-way trade, with Flaherty instantly the member of the Dodgers’ projected playoff rotation with the best recent track record of health (ZiPS obviously doesn’t know whether the Yankees’ reported worries about his back have any merit).
The Guardians also see a World Series benefit from their quiet moves for Alex Cobb and Lane Thomas.
Remember when the Cubs were going to be sellers? They did trade Mark Leiter Jr., but the addition of Isaac Paredes added a crucial win to the team’s bottom line, and ZiPS wasn’t a fan of the moves made by the Pirates, Reds, or Cardinals. The system being down on St. Louis might raise some eyebrows, but the computer didn’t really see a net gain in getting Erick Fedde because of the loss of Tommy Edman.
I also have to address the Rays. With the roster as it was, ZiPS projected Tampa Bay with a nearly one-in-three chance of making the playoffs. But after losing approximately 2.8 wins following their deadline moves, that probability drops from 32.3% to 13.2%, almost a fifth of a playoff spot gone in just a few days of trades. Remember the notorious White Flag Trade of 1997, when the White Sox traded their best pitcher (Wilson Alvarez) and their closer (Roberto Hernandez) to the Giants despite only being 3 1/2 games back in the AL Central? Well, I did a rough ZiPS in-season projection for the effect of that trade, and ZiPS estimates the White Sox went from a 14% chance to make the playoffs to a 4% chance, barely half the drop in percentage points the Rays experienced.
The Marlins lost the most estimated wins at the deadline (3.4), more than the Rays did, but Miami had the “benefit” of already being dead in the water.
Well, that wraps up the deadline — enjoy the playoff races to come!
Dan Szymborski is a senior writer for FanGraphs and the developer of the ZiPS projection system. He was a writer for ESPN.com from 2010-2018, a regular guest on a number of radio shows and podcasts, and a voting BBWAA member. He also maintains a terrible Twitter account at @DSzymborski.
Woof. Pirates. At least they only traded their best hitting prospect AA or above and a good pitching prospect and a defensive tweener in Forester and their former No 1 pick Quinn Priester and a low level LH reliever who’s probably better than the MLB reliever they got in Beeks to reduce their playoff odds by 5%.
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You may have missed something.
Pittsburgh’s probabilities went down, but, likely, because Chicago’s and Milwaukee’s went up.
If they hadn’t made those moves, they’d be even less likely to make the playoffs now
According to Dan, the Cubs added a win and are still very likely to finish below the Pirates. Brewers additions hurt and are in the picture but how much did they add?
As a Brewers fan, I’m also curious how adding a pitcher with a 5.01 ERA “helps” our playoff chances.
Yeah I don’t get it unless ZiPS hates the players the Pirates added.
I think part of that is also the return of the terrifying Devin Williams to your bullpen. The unit has already been amazing, but with that guy back? Yikes.
Also Montas is bad, but that’s still better than the zero or negative that they were getting before because they were running out of viable starters.
Good point on Williams.
We’re running short of guys, sure, but that’s partially because we traded a decent pitcher (Junis) away. I’d rather have Junis starting games than Montas.
Junis was only actually good for that start before he got injured early in the year. Since then, his pitches have played down and he hasn’t looked good at all outside of throwing strikes. At least Montas’ power arsenal theoretically plays up in relief and he can actually give the Brewers 5+.
It doesn’t matter that the Cubs are projected to finish a game back, projections are just statistical predictions and cover a range of outcomes. Playoff probability is a zero sum stat, if one team has made moves that make them more likely to make the playoffs it comes at the expense of another team. So in relative terms Pittsburgh was hurt by other teams in their division making moves that improved their teams to a greater degree relative to Pit as well as other NL wild card contenders making moves of there own.
I’m not going to argue that the Pirates had a good deadline, since they added some average bats but no one thats really good. But you are vastly overstating how much they gave up to get those returns. McAdoo, Forrester, Shim, etc were not high-value prospects. “Former No.1 pick” describes both Priester (2019, 18th overall pick) and Yorke, they guy they traded him to get (2020, 17th overall pick). And we’re really at the point where we’re pearl-clutching reliever prospects with 9 innings in AA? Peralta slots in at 35th in the Rockies system.
The Pirates didn’t get a haul back to help the MLB team, but let’s not pretend that they gave up a haul either.
With McAdoo, the Pirates turned a 13th-round college draftee who signed for slot into a desirable trade asset within a year. Hard not to see that as a success. And they can really use a backup shortstop, because Cruz maybe needs to sit for a day sometime to get his mental focus back.
The real issue is that they’d be far better off now if they’d shoved more chips in in the offseason instead of planning to tread water for another year. If instead of Perez they’d signed Lugo or Fedde or even Wacha, they could be in a playoff spot now. Though honestly it seems like they could’ve got Winker instead of de la Cruz without giving up much, and that would’ve moved the needle some.
Yeah I don’t get De la Cruz at all. Way too much blue on his xstats lines. They’re already 27th in OBP before him. Bad move and Cherington fails quite slowly, typically, so he’ll sit on BDLC’s control for a looong long time now instead of actually improving RF.
I’m not saying they gave up a haul. The comment on McAdoo illustrates how bereft of hitting talent their system is.
That was my reaction as well. The Pirates probably aren’t going to miss any of those guys.
They may not but they might really regret Bryan de la Cruz.