Last week, MLB announced their Postseason Ticket Reservation program. This program allows fans to buy the option to later buy a postseason ticket at face value should their team reach the playoffs. You choose the team and game, and then pay $10 for the Division Series, $15 for the Championship Series or $20 for the World Series. If the team you chose gets to that series you have the right to buy a ticket for the chosen game at face value. If not, you get nothing (i.e. your money is not refunded). For the DS you can choose Game One, Two or Three, which are the first, second and third home game for your chosen team, not necessarily the first, second and third game of the series.

So if you choose Game One, you have the right to buy a ticket for the first game of the series (if you have the home team for the series) or the third (if you have the away team for the series). If you choose Game Two you go to Game Two if your team is home and game four if your team is away and the series lasts that long. If you choose Game Three the option is worthless unless your team makes the playoffs, and is home, and the series goes to five games. You get the picture. It works similarly for the CS and WS.

Ok, so should you take part in this program? First, answer these questions: would you like to see a playoff game? Is it worth it to pay above the face value of the ticket to ensure you can go? If so, by how much? That is how much more than face value would you be willing to pay for a given game, assuming that game were to take place. Let’s call that amount, x. Now assuming the probability of the game taking place is p, the the value of the option is:

Value = (1-p)*0 + p*x
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There has been a lot of controversy in Arizona recently and, while I don’t necessarily agree with the direction of the big-league club, the organization boasts an exciting minor league system. The strength of the system actually comes as a result of an impressive 2009 draft haul – perhaps the best in recent memory in terms of overall depth. Let’s check in with some of the members of the ’09 class:

1st RND Bobby Borchering, 3B, Florida HS
The club’s first pick has yet to truly get hot this season and is producing a triple-slash line of .248/.324/.388 in 286 overall at-bats. Borchering has actually been pretty consistent and has hit right around .250 in every month. The switch-hitter’s swing from the right side has been a little more potent this year, albeit in fewer at-bats.

1S Matt Davidson, 3B, California HS
Davidson has shown a little more pop in his bat this season than his fellow hot-corner mate with a triple-slash line of .289/.374/.485 in 270 at-bats. Davidson began the year with a very aggressive approach, with just one walk in April, but he made adjustments and walked 13 times in May and 12 times in June. Unfortunately, the more patient approach has hurt his average: .354 in April, .265 in May, and .228 in June.

1S Chris Owings, SS, South Carolina HS
Another aggressive hitter, Owings has just nine walks compared to 50 strikeouts. Overall, though, the approach has been successful to this point. He’s currently hitting .298/.323/.447 in 255 at-bats. Owings hit more than .300 in his debut in ’09.

1S Mike Belfiore, LHP, Boston College
Belfiore had a nice debut in ’09 and he’s followed that up with a solid performance. Unfortunately, his ground-ball rate is not as good as it was in his debut and his control has slipped a bit, too, although it’s still solid. He looks like a solid No. 3 starter if he continues to develop on this path.

2. Eric Smith, RHP, University of Rhode Island
Smith has been a workhorse, with 80 innings pitched so far this season. He’s given up 80 hits and 27 walks. He does a nice job of keeping the ball on the ground and has a respectable – but not flashy – strikeout rate. He looks like a potential No. 3 starter for the D-Backs.

2. Marc Krauss, OF, University of Ohio
Krauss has been on the fast-track and currently has a .931 OPS in high-A ball. Overall, he’s hitting .327/.389/.541 in 303 at-bats. He shown some good pop but he also strikes out a lot (70 Ks). He’s been on fire recently and has 25 hits and seven homers in his last 10 games – good for a 1.654 OPS.

5. Ryan Wheeler, 1B, Loyola Marymount University
Wheeler hit more than .350 in his debut in ’09 and he’s followed that up with a solid line of .285/.343/.409 in 330 at-bats. However, he has yet to tap into his raw power and has just six homers (but 21 doubles). After hitting .310 in April, Wheeler cooled to .234 in June. His power development will dictate his future potential.

8. Paul Goldschmidt, 1B, Texas State University
Goldschmidt has shown massive power in the potent California League with 24 doubles and 18 homers. His overall approach, though, suggests he may face difficulties at higher levels. He’s walked 27 times with an eye-popping 90 strikeouts. Goldschmidt is also hitting just .194 with runners in scoring position.

This draft class also includes a few other interesting names to monitor, including pitchers Patrick Schuster, and Scottie Allen, as well as outfielders Keon Broxton, and the injured A.J. Pollock, and infielder David Nick.

The Cincinnati Reds pummeled the Chicago Cubs at Wrigley yesterday afternoon, bopping seven home runs while taking the game fourteen to three. Aside from Brandon Phillips and Jonny Gomes, the Reds’ hitters going deep weren’t the usual suspects. Drew Stubbs trotted around the bases three times. Paul Janish knocked one out, having been thrown into the game following Joey Votto’s first inning ejection. Backup backstop Corky Miller, called into action after Ramon Hernandez came out with a sore knee, used the power of the Fu Manchu to crank one out of the park.

The victory brings Cincinnati’s record to 47-36, 1.5 games ahead of the St. Louis Cardinals in the National League Central. CoolStandings.com gives Cincy nearly a two-thirds chance of making the playoffs. How have the Reds managed to stave off the Red Birds to this point? The club’s defense has been decent, ranking sixth in the NL in Ultimate Zone Rating. Cincy’s starting pitchers place ahead of only the Diamondbacks and Pirates in terms of xFIP, while the bullpen places seventh in xFIP and 12th in Win Probability Added. The Reds’ success isn’t fueled by pitching and defense. Rather, it’s the bats that are keeping the team in the playoff hunt.

Collectively, the Reds have an NL-best .347 wOBA. Granted, Great American Ballpark is a strong hitter’s venue. But even accounting for that, Cincinnati trails just the Milwaukee Brewers in Park Adjusted Batting Runs — Reds batters have been +43.2 runs above average, compared to +46.3 for the Brew Crew.

While Orlando Cabrera (71 wRC+) is making oodles of outs near the top of the lineup, the Reds feature league average or better offensive production at every other position on the field. Ramon Hernandez has a 109 wRC+. Joey Votto is raking to the tune of a 163 wRC+, and Brandon Phillips has a 127 wRC+. Scott Rolen (146 wRC+) has cast aside shoulder problems and is showing power not seen in over half a decade. In the outfield, Drew Stubbs rates as exactly average (100 wRC+), while Jonny Gomes (115 wRC+) and Jay Bruce (118 wRC+) come in well above that mark.

The question now becomes, can the Reds keep crushing the ball? Here are the current wOBA totals for Cincy’s hitters, as well as their rest-of-season ZiPS projections:

Those rest-of-season forecasts suggest it’s going to be hard to the Reds to keep putting crooked numbers on the scoreboard so frequently — seven out of the eight current starters are predicted to show decline at the dish. CHONE’s R.O.S. projections also show a downturn for most Cincinnati hitters, though the system is more bullish on Bruce’s bat:

Perhaps the rotation will get a shot in the arm with the return of Edinson Volquez and the ‘pen will get the power fastball of Aroldis Chapman, but it’s likely that the lineup won’t be as prolific in the second half.

Yesterday, MLB Trade Rumors posted the newest set of reverse engineered Elias free agent rankings. Here’s a look at a few notable would be Type A free agents if the season ended today.

Carl Pavano, Minnesota Twins

Carl Pavano’s Type B ranking put the Twins in a win-win situation last year. An arbitration offer would either result in a supplemental draft choice or a low-risk, one year deal with a solid pitcher. Pavano was projected be roughly league average entering the season, but has posted a 3.88 FIP in the first half this year. ZiPS still only projects a 4.20 FIP going forward, but there’s reason to believe that he has recovered from the injuries that plagued his New York Yankees career and can continue to pitch at the level he’s established since joining the Twins in the middle of 2009.

Pavano is anywhere between a 2-3.5 win pitcher going forward, and as such is likely worth whatever he would get in arbitration were he to accept. That seems unlikely given his success this season. If he were to decline, the return on their investment – Yohan Pino, currently with a 4.48 FIP in AAA – could be an excellent 2010 out of Pavano along with two high draft picks. That’s certainly better than most imagined when Pavano was acquired in a waiver deal last season.

Adrian Beltre, Boston Red Sox

Beltre’s contract situation is quite odd. If he reaches 640 plate appearances – very possible, given his 329 PA total after July 4th – his player option for 2011 escalates from $5 million to $10 million. Still, given Beltre’s success this year, with a .373 wOBA and his ever excellent defense, the most likely situation would be for Beltre to decline his player option, becoming a free agent, and, if I understand my contract rules correctly, allowing Boston to offer Beltre arbitration. Much like with Pavano, the Red Sox could truly have a haul with this contract. Either they negotiate long term and get a great player in Beltre in Boston for the next few years, or they pay $10 million total for a fantastic 2010 season and two more high draft picks in 2011. Beltre is certainly making Theo Epstein look good this season.

Beltre, like Pavano, is making the jump from Type B to Type A. The combined value of a first round pick (picks 16-30, as the top 15 are protected) and a supplemental pick is about $7.5 million, according to Victor Wang’s research. Of course, we can’t expect a team with an unprotected pick to sign these players – with that accounted for, the Type A draft picks are valued at around $3-5 million. That’s still a major pickup for these general managers in Pavano and Beltre, on top of the solid production from each.

There are, of course, many other Type A’s in the AL who will be hitting the market. A.J. Pierzynski could be the next Jermaine Dye; Cliff Lee and Carl Crawford will certainly demand huge contracts. Victor Martinez’s contract will run out. Johnny Damon is projected as a Type B at the moment but is very close to A classification. For anyone interested in the free agent market, these rankings will be important to watch as the season winds down.

When selecting an adjective to preface a player’s name, there are always a few ways to go. Take Carl Crawford. If kicking a little knowledge about his contract status is your thing, then go with “pending free agent.” If you’d rather kick it old school with his age, then hit the folks with a “28-year-old.” There’s always more obvious attributes to throw in front of Crawford’s name too, like “speedy” or “athletic,” but if you really want to accurately portray Crawford’s play this season, then “MVP candidate” might do the trick.

No, really. Justin Morneau leads the majors with 4.8 WAR and Robinson Cano is close behind at 4.5 WAR, but it’s Crawford who is in third with 4.2 WAR; no other major league batter is over 4, although Josh Hamilton and David Wright are a sneeze away. Crawford probably won’t surpass Morneau anytime this season, but he’s playing at a ridiculous pace. His best season came just last year as he finished with 5.5 wins. He’s more than three-fourths of the way there and the mid-season break isn’t for another week. That’s unfathomable.

Crawford’s wOBA is near .390 and his ISO nearing a career high. It’s not being buoyed by an increased amount of homers, though, as every year since 2005 has been held as the perspective year for Crawford’s first 20 homer campaign. It still hasn’t happened and may never happen; he’s projected to finish with 14 this year. On the basepaths Crawford offers success through excellent conditioning and various moves. He’s not quite Kobe Bryant on the baseline, since he doesn’t have a move as effective as a jab step, but he’s so well-conditioned and able to differentiate between pickoff move and honest movement towards the plate that it’s generally to a perfect throw when Crawford is caught.

It’s not just Crawford’s offense getting the job done either. He rocks his glove on the right side and yet has no issues with balls hit to either his glove side or arm side. Watching him for long enough in comparison to players without such blessed range make you appreciate that Crawford only dives when the ball is on the outer limit of human being physical limitations. The numbers reflect this too. Crawford’s 15.2 UZR figure puts him on a pace to eclipse his previous career high in yet another category. His UZR/150 is currently 32.1 which would top his 24.1 number in 2004.

Surpassing Ben Zobrist’s 2009 season for the best season in Rays’ history by WAR seems unlikely since Crawford has to remain on this pace. That result would be an ever so fitting parting gift if Crawford is indeed on his way elsewhere this off-season.

Preface that with “bittersweet”.

On behalf of Joe Girardi and Charlie Manuel, who were overcome with temporary insanity, I’d like to publicly apologize to the following players.

Francisco Liriano, +4.2 WAR
Joey Votto, +3.6 WAR
Kevin Youkilis, +3.2 WAR
Jered Weaver, +3.2 WAR
Alex Rios, +3.1 WAR
Josh Willingham, +3.1 WAR
Ryan Zimmerman, +3.0 WAR
Felix Hernandez, +2.9 WAR

By any standard you want to use, these eight have to be on the team. You can’t have a 2010 All-Star game without those guys. What a disaster.

I wasn’t planning on putting up my picks for the All-Star Game this year, but I’ve found myself with a little unexpected free time, and what better way to spend it than by writing about 68 players who will spend between 5 and 60 minutes playing in an exhibition game next week?

As you will see, I lean a bit more towards 2010 performance than true talent level as I believe guys who are having big first halves should be rewarded, however, both are factors. Oh, and if you’re wondering who got bumped so that I could make the game more entertaining by putting Strasburg on the roster, the last guy cut was Matt Belisle. Raise your hand if you’d rather watch him pitch than Strasburg? Yeah, that’s what I thought.

Anyway, without further adieu, here’s my picks for the game.

American League

Starters

C – Joe Mauer, Minnesota
1B – Justin Morneau, Minnesota
2B – Robinson Cano, New York
SS – Elvis Andrus, Texas
3B – Adrian Beltre, Boston
LF – Carl Crawford, Tampa Bay
CF – Alex Rios, Chicago
RF – Josh Hamilton, Texas
DH – Vladimir Guerrero, Texas
SP – Cliff Lee, Seattle

Reserves:

C – Kurt Suzuki, Oakland; Carlos Santana, Cleveland
1B – Miguel Cabrera, Detroit; Kevin Youkilis, Boston
2B – Ben Zobrist, Tampa Bay
SS – Derek Jeter, New York; Alex Gonzalez, Toronto
3B – Evan Longoria, Tampa Bay; Michael Young, Texas
OF – Franklin Gutierrez, Seattle; Ichiro Suzuki, Seattle; David DeJesus, Kansas City; Nick Markakis, Baltimore

SP – Francisco Liriano, Minnesota; Jered Weaver, Anaheim; Jon Lester, Boston; Felix Hernandez, Seattle; Justin Verlander, Detroit; Phil Hughes, New York; Clay Buchholz, Boston; David Price, Tampa Bay
RP: Matt Thornton, Chicago; Mariano Rivera, New York; Darren Oliver, Texas

National League

Starters

C – Miguel Olivo, Colorado
1B – Joey Votto, Cincinnati
2B – Martin Prado, Atlanta
SS – Hanley Ramirez, Florida
3B – David Wright, New York
LF – Matt Holliday, St. Louis
CF – Andres Torres, San Francisco
RF – Jayson Werth, Philadelphia
DH – Albert Pujols, St. Louis
SP – Roy Halladay, Philadelphia

Reserves

C – Brian McCann; Atlanta; Geovany Soto, Chicago
1B – Adrian Gonzalez, 1B
2B – Brandon Phillips, Cincinnati; Dan Uggla, Florida; Kelly Johnson, Arizona
SS – Rafael Furcal, Los Angeles
3B – Ryan Zimmerman, Washington; Scott Rolen, Cincinnati
OF – Josh Willingham, Washington; Marlon Byrd, Chicago; Colby Rasmus, St. Louis

SP – Josh Johnson, Florida; Ubaldo Jimenez, Colorado; Yovanni Gallarado, Milwaukee; Adam Wainwright, St. Louis; Roy Oswalt, Houston; Jaime Garcia, St. Louis; Stephen Strasburg, Washington
RP: Jonathan Broxton, Los Angeles; Luke Gregerson, San Diego; Brian Wilson, San Francisco; Evan Meek, Pittsburgh

The 2009 season ended poorly for Miguel Cabrera. An arrest and the Tigers’ collapse coincided with the worst month of his season which wasn’t all that poor by anyone else’s standards. The dialect associated with the 27 year old was unkind and the offseason carried with it rumors of a potential trade for budgetary concerns. Those passed and as such Cabrera has spent the 2010 season changing the language like Babylon.

As far as pitchers are concerned, Cabrera’s play is in Brail since encountering him includes feeling a few bumps along the way. Here he is, the same guy who broke into the league as a 20 year old with an above average wOBA; the same guy that has recorded a wOBA over .400 in three of the past four seasons; that same guy, posting inflated numbers even when compared solely to his career.

How’s he doing it? By walking more and striking out less than he’s ever done as a resident in the American League. A career best ISO of .291 (previous best: .245) is fueled in part by a career high home run per flyball percentage; a measure that Cabrera is generally consistent in:

2004: 20.1%
2005: 17.9%
2006: 15.6%
2007: 18.5%
2008: 18.9%
2009: 18.3%

He’s not doing it with an inflated batting average on balls in play as a .349 mark is one point above his 2009 total and only three points above his career average. He’s not hitting too many more liners or grounders than usual either and he’s making contact at the same rate. This next level performance is driven solely by the aforementioned improvements which could be a degree of luck as well as Cabrera moving into the expected statistical prime of his career.

ZiPS updated projection has him finishing with a .424 wOBA which would simply annihilate his previous best, and that’s saying something, since Cabrera produced five wins with his bat alone in 2006. He probably won’t crack six, but he’s going to come close.

We’re getting to that time of year when we should begin to see players start to change hands as playoff-hopeful teams look to solidify their rosters for that final two-month push. As a result, we could start to see some playing time open up for rookies currently applying their trades in the minors. Below you’ll find three first basemen that could be in line to benefit from some trade deadline wheeling and dealings.

Brandon Allen, Arizona
Current first baseman Adam LaRoche is having a fine season and Arizona currently sits in last place in the National league West division. The team is currently cleaning house in the front office, so that mentality could lead to a lot of changes on the field, as well. LaRoche will be a free agent at the end of the year, but he also has a 2011 mutual option for $9.5 million. Because his numbers have taken a dip since his strong April, Arizona will likely have to take a B- or C-level prospect for LaRoche.

Allen’s overall numbers may not look that impressive, but his OPS was .757 in April. Since missing all but three games in May (shoulder dislocation), he’s gone on a massive hot streak and had a 1.146 OPS in June. During that month he also walked 25 times in 26 games. For the year, Allen has 42 walks in 51 games and a slugging percentage of .529. It’s probably time to hand the job to the inexpensive 24-year-old prospect to see what he can do. Surely he can take a legitimate run at LaRoche’s 0.6 WAR.

Logan Morrison, Florida
Current first baseman Gaby Sanchez is doing everything he can to keep Morrison in triple-A. As a result, the team may have to get fancy to find room for the 22-year-old prospect. With the team falling down the standings in the NL East, now might be the time to finally trade second baseman Dan Uggla, who currently has the second highest wOBA of his career at .365 and is showing respectable fielding abilities, according to UZR. By trading Uggla, the club could then move sophomore Chris Coghlan back to the position he played in the minors and install Morrison in left (where he has some experience).

Kila Ka’aihue, Kansas City
Royals management gave Ka’aihue a token call-up in May to try and shut up the stats crowd… but we’re back and starting to make noise again. If the organization can find a take for Jose Guillen – which is no sure thing despite his 1.3 WAR – then Ka’aihue deserves to have an extended look in the Majors. Check out these triple-A numbers: .307/.472/.583 in 218 at-bats. On the year, Ka’aihue has 70 walks in 64 games, as well as a .276 ISO rate. The Royals club is second last in the Majors in walks and its on-base percentage (10th in the Majors) relies very heavily on batting average. The team also has the seventh lowest ISO rate in the Majors so a little more power could help, too.

Overview

I’ve held off on posting this one, because this is probably the most complicated decision any front office has to make this summer. The Padres are in first place and are tied with the Braves for the best record in the National League. They have a 2 1/2 game lead over the second place Dodgers, so even if they struggle in July, they should be close to the top of the division by month’s end. So, this should be pretty easy, right?

Buy or Sell

It isn’t that easy. There are plenty of reasons to think that San Diego can’t keep this up, as their success has leaned heavily on guys who are likely playing over their heads. Their starting rotation has a 3.37 ERA, second lowest in baseball, but their FIP of 4.00 is just 10th best in the game. Yes, some of that is good defense, but a bigger part of their run prevention has been leaving runners on base. Their starters have a 77.7% LOB% – again, the highest in baseball.

That’s just not going to last. In most years, no rotation is able to post a full year LOB% of higher than about 75 percent, and while that may seem like a small drop, it doesn’t take much of a change in performance with men on base to make a large impact on wins and losses. The Padres need to expect their current players to produce worse results over the rest of the year, and that complicates what they should do.

Is it worth sacrificing future talent to make a run that may not materialize anyway, especially for a team that is widely expected to trade Adrian Gonzalez this winter? Or, do they owe it to their fan base to make a run at this thing while they still have their star first baseman?

I don’t know. I don’t envy Jed Hoyer, that’s for sure. This is a tough decision to make. You want to take advantage of every chance your team gives you to play in October, but at the same time, the Padres don’t have a large enough margin for error to sacrifice young talent unless they’re sure they can continue to win. And, given how the team is winning games, it’s tough to have that confidence.

It’s a good thing that the deadline isn’t July 2nd, so he has another month to gather information and figure out which way he should go. But, I have a feeling that this may not be an easier decision then than it is now, and it’s probably the hardest call any GM is going to have to make in 2010.

On The Farm

Their farm system has some good pieces, though most of it is several years from the majors. You can be sure that the Padres won’t be moving guys like Donovon Tate or Simon Castro, but they have some interesting secondary prospects who could go in a move that significantly upgraded the team. It’s just tough to see the Padres trading too much out of the farm, given that they’re still somewhat in rebuilding mode.

Budget

Unbelievably, the Padres have $1.1 million in committed money for 2011, and that entire sum represents buyouts of team options – one for Jon Garland and one for Yorvit Torrealba. They hold one on Adrian Gonzalez that will obviously be picked up, but he could very easily be traded this winter. Most of the rest of the roster is either arbitration eligible (Heath Bell, Mike Adams, Scott Hairston) or under club control, meaning that they’ll make something close to the league minimum next year.

So, while the Padres don’t have a large budget, they should have some money to play with, simply because they haven’t spent any of next year’s budget yet. They won’t be players for Roy Oswalt, you wouldn’t think, but they may be able to afford to take on some 2011 money if it helps get them a player who can help them win now and in the future.