Archive for November, 2010

Hall Returns to Relevance

After seeing Bill Hall fall from grace in Milwaukee and fail considerably in Seattle, I thought there was a good chance that Hall wouldn’t receive another MLB contract after his four year, $24 million dollar deal expired after the 2010 season. From 2007 to 2009, Hall completely lost his power. He dropped from a 5 win season in 2006 to only 1.6 WAR in 2007. His slide continued until he was below replacement level in 2009, forcing the Brewers to trade him to Seattle for minimal salary relief. Hall presented one of the worst possible fits for Safeco Field, as a right handed hitter with much of his value coming from power. Perhaps unsurprisingly, Hall was a complete failure in his short time in the Pacific Northwest.

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Marlins Ink John Buck

No owner attracts more synonyms of cheap than the Marlins’ Jeffrey Loria. Parsimoniously or prudently—depending on your perspective – the Marlins roster usually consist of players in the Land Before Dime stage of their careers. The conversation briefly, ever so briefly, centered on Loria’s sudden generosity yesterday when the team inked John Buck for three years and $18 million … then the team went and traded Dan Uggla for a (perceived) whimsical return.

On Buck – who possesses one of the most preposterously pun-able names for two separate categories of player: 1) home run hitting 2) paid baseball player – the contract appears overproduced. Too much pay and too many years make for a poor soundtrack. The 2010 season stands out in Buck’s portfolio as it does for many of his Blue Jays teammates. Buck racked up nearly 2,000 plate appearances with the Royals from 2004-2008 and hit .234/.298/.398 with 20 home runs per 592 trips. Over the last two seasons, Buck has 639 plate appearances with 28 home runs and a line of .271/.309/.487.

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Westbrook Stays in Saint Louis

After losing most of 2008 and all of 2009, Jake Westbrook bounced back to his old self this past season with a 200-inning, low-4 FIP effort. And today the Cardinals rewarded him with a new two-year contract for $17.5 million guaranteed.

A reliably 4-win pitcher from 2004-6, Westbrook took a hit with the injuries starting in 2007 causing a loss almost entirely just of playing time, not of production. In fact, Westbrook’s key performance markers have been quite stable ever since he broke into full time play in 2003. His strikeouts have always been meager, hovering right around five every nine innings with little variation. The same goes for the walks and ground balls too. No pitcher is a sure bet, but Westbrook has a case for being predictable for as long as he’s on the mound.

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Uggla Travels up I-75

Jerry Crasnick of ESPN.com broke the news late Tuesday afternoon that the Marlins had traded Dan Uggla to the Braves for lefty reliever Mike Dunn and Omar Infante. The reaction in the twittersphere was immediate and intense, mostly centering on the fact that the Marlins have seemingly cornered the market on relievers with their past few trades.

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Justin Upton’s Future Value

With Kevin Towers back at the helm of a Major League franchise, we can be assured of one thing – he’ll create enough trade rumors to keep Tim Dierkes busy for life. If loose lips really did sink ships, Towers could take out an armada in a matter of minutes. Today’s rumor du jour is that the Diamondbacks will be willing to listen to calls for young right fielder Justin Upton. In reality, most every GM is willing to listen to calls for most every player on their roster, so this probably doesn’t mean anything. But, just for fun, let’s figure out what Upton might be worth if Arizona really did put him on the market.

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Comparing Plate Discipline: Visually and Numerically

Here at Fanpraphs, we have plate discipline recorded for each hitter going back to 2002. These values are useful, but how do these values translate into the exact strike zone that a players uses? Today, I decided to look at how the visual and numerical plate discipline compares for three players, Brett Gardner, Vladimir Guerrero, and Torii Hunter.

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Offseason Notes: Featuring All Manner of Wisdom

You can’t tell me nothing.

This edition of Offseason Notes contains:

1. Some headlines from around the internet.
2. Some joy-sodden notes on those headlines.

and

3. Two swear words.

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The Dodgers’ Desperate Need for a Left Fielder

In the winter before the 2009 season it appeared as though the Dodgers were set in the outfield for the next two years. The team had just re-signed Manny Ramirez to a two-year deal, which put him alongside Matt Kemp and Andre Ethier to form one of the better outfield groups in the league. There were concerns with Ramirez, of course, but the short-term nature of the deal helped mitigate most of them. But by the end the Dodgers traded Manny, basically eliminating any chance of a reunion. That leaves the Dodgers short a left fielder.

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Boras on Manny

Scott Boras – open, honest, and realistic? Not the first three words that would spring to most people’s minds, but his conversation with Bill Shaikin about Manny Ramirez is just that. A few of the quotes about Manny.

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Top 10 Prospects: The New York Mets

The New York Mets
2010 MLB Record: 79-83 (4th in the NL East)
Minor League Power Ranking: 27th (out of 30)
Click for: Last Year’s Top 10 Prospect List

The Prospects

1. Wilmer Flores, SS
Acquired: 2007 non-drafted free agent (Venezuela)
Pro Experience: 3 seasons
2010 MiLB Level: A/A+
Opening Day Age: 19
Estimated Peak WAR: 5.5

Notes: Flores didn’t have a huge season at the plate but he spent much of the season playing A-ball at the age of 18. The right-handed hitter batted .278/.342/.433 in low-A and then moved up to high-A where he produced a line of .300/.324/.415. Flores was overly aggressive in high-A and saw his walk rate plummet from 7.5% at the lower level to 3.1%. His 36 doubles on the year hint at the raw power he possesses. His strikeout rates have been impressive (14.4% in high-A) given his age; hopefully he can maintain them as his power numbers spike. Flores hits with an open stance and is susceptible to balls on the outer half of the plate. He has a habit of pulling his head off of breaking balls. He also has a lot of movement in the hands, which he clearly uses as a timing mechanism. Flores is at his best when he maintains a level, line-drive stroke and avoids the upper cut. He has enough bat speed that he doesn’t need to generate loft by dropping the head of the bat. Look for his power numbers to spike when he buys into the approach. Flores doesn’t play with as much energy as you might expect from a top-of-the-line prospect and his lack of range will eventually move him off shortstop. He has good arm strength and could end up at third base or an outfield corner.

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