It’s been more than a week since the minor league season got underway so let’s check in with some of the top prospects in each of the National League West organizations. I’ll be focusing pretty heavily on hitters in the early going since most pitchers have only made one or two appearances. (All stats prior to Sunday’s results).

As if Brandon Allen didn’t have enough of a hill to climb in Arizona. First baseman Paul Goldschmidt just missed my Arizona Top 10 list but he’s working hard to prove that it was a mistake on my part. In nine double-A games, he’s hitting .357/.514/.929 and has five homers. He’s also walked more (nine) than he’s struck out (seven). Outfielder A.J. Pollock missed all of 2010 with an injury but the organization was aggressive with him and jumped him to double-A for ’11. He’s currently hitting .324 with just two strikeouts in 34 at-bats. Top prospect Jarrod Parker has made just one start in double-A and he was roughed up; keep in mind that he’s coming back from Tommy John surgery so inconsistency is to be expected. Catcher Rossmel Perez is a sleeper prospect for the D-Backs. He’s repeating high-A ball but is still just 21. He’s hitting .360 with six walks and just three strikeouts. He hasn’t had an extra base hit in eight games, though. Corner infield prospect Bobby Borchering is struggling in high-A ball with an average of just .088 in nine games. He’s struck out 12 times with just one walk.

Read the rest of this entry »

2011 UZR data is now up on the site and will be updated during each Sunday night’s data load.

The UZR data will always include games through Saturday.

Things could be worse for the Dodgers. They’re 7-9, which is hardly terrible for this time of year. That puts them just two games off the NL Wild Card pace. While meaningless in terms of the actual postseason, it puts into perspective how little they need to turn things around. Yet, in terms of run differential, they rank among the league’s worst. Only two teams have scored fewer runs, and only six have allowed more. In fact, if it weren’t for the superhuman performances by Matt Kemp, the Dodgers might be at medium-well, approaching well-done right now.

Read the rest of this entry »

It has been 633 days since Bartolo Colon last took the mound as a starting pitcher in the Major Leagues. With Phil Hughes suffering from dead arm, Colon will once again toe the rubber as a major league starter. A low-risk, non-roster invitee, who looked like a long-shot to make the roster this spring, Colon was impressive in the month of March and has continued that in three relief appearances with the Yankees.

As Phil Hughes’ shadow over the first few weeks of the season, Colon has tossed 11. 1 innings out of the bullpen. His ERA and defensive independent metrics look good and his peripheral statistics look even better. The right hander has struck out 13 batters while walking just three and allowing one ball to leave the yard. After giving up four runs in his first appearance, he has allowed one earned run over his last two appearances while striking out eight and walking two.

Read the rest of this entry »

At least Nick Punto could fly.

Today’s edition of One Night Only contains:

1. Previews of two games, with sexy, updated Team NERD scores and sexy, updated ZiPS projections.

2. Notes on a third game you shouldn’t watch.

3. A poll on what’s the most depressing thing about the current iteration of the Twins.

Read the rest of this entry »

Cardinals over Dodgers, 2 games to 1

Moving the Needle: Matt Kemp ends the game with one swing, +.574 WPA. A pitchers’ duel this was, with the score remaining tied at zero through eight. The Cardinals then broke through with a two-out run in the ninth, which left if up to the Dodgers’ offense, which had scored four runs in the previous 26 innings, to rally back. And rally they did, without even recording an out. Andre Ethier doubled to lead off the inning, and then Kemp upper-cutted one into the black, giving his team its lone victory of the series.

Notable Pitching

Kyle Lohse: 7.1 IP, 6 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 1 BB, 6 K, 0 HR. Dare I say that the Cardinals need Lohse to pitch like this all season if they’re going to win the Central?

Kyle McClellan: 7 IP, 6 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 0 BB, 2 K, 0 HR. I thought they’d go out and sign a vet like Kevin Millwood with Wainwright out. But McClellan has done everything they could have asked so far.

Chris Carpenter: 7 IP, 5 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 6 K. Adam who?

Chad Billingsley: 8 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 11 K. Brilliant games by both Carpenter and Billingsley. Neither was in line for the win. Which again shows the uselessness of…ah, you get the point by now.

Cardinals 11, Dodgers 2
Cardinals 9, Dodgers 2
Dodgers 2, Cardinals 1

Also in this issue: Red Sox over Blue Jays | Angels over White Sox | Indians over Orioles | Royals over Mariners | Yankees over Rangers | A’s over Tiers | Rays over Twins | Giants over Diamondbacks | Braves over Mets | Pirates over Reds | Rockies over Cubs | Padres over Astros | Nationals over Brewers | Phillies and Marlins split two

Read the rest of this entry »

Small sample sizes kill — player development, that is.

Brad Emaus was supposed to be the man at second base for the New York Mets this year. At least that’s what any reasonable person could have anticipated after a Spring Training in which the team cut ties with Luis Castillo, sent Justin Turner to the minor leagues, and slapped the utility tag on Daniel Murphy. Emaus profiled well, as Joe Pawlikowski noted, comparing nicely to fellow former Rule 5 pick Dan Uggla. For every reason imaginable, it was easy to see why Emaus was the popular in-house candidate: a 25-year-old, cost-controlled player with potential seemed exactly what the Mets needed to get back on track.

But Emaus was removed as the everyday starter after only six games. And he’s started half of the last eight. It’s pretty easy to see why — he’s posted an anemic 162/.262/.162 in 42 PA — but is it the right decision, based on such a limited number of plate appearances?

Read the rest of this entry »

Note: Last lingering thought from the NCAA tournament, promise.

Last week, Virginia Commonwealth men’s basketball coach Shaka Smart signed an eight-year contract extension worth $1.2 million a year — nearly quadrupling his previous base salary. With apologies to the team’s impressive 55-21 record in Smart’s two years at VCU, Shaka got his money for one reason: the Rams’ incredible tourney run, from play-in afterthoughts who many said didn’t deserve to make it, all the way to the Final Four.

Smart might prove to be an elite coach who turns VCU into a perennial power. But breaking the bank for any sports commodity based largely on one flash of excellence can be risky. In baseball, we’ve seen many players ride a small sample of greatness — a stretch-run tear, monster playoff performance, even a single game or play — to big paydays.

While Smart’s contract will be evaluated over the course of the next few years, we’ve already seen the track record of baseball contracts earned through signature moments. It’s not pretty.

Read the rest of this entry »

The FanGraphs iPhone App is discounted to $0.99 from it’s original price of $2.99 until the end of the weekend.

I’ve also added the in-season ZiPS projections, both “Updated” and “Rest of Season” to the player stats.

Cleveland fans have a rough life. It seems like all their sports success is tainted with pain: the Cavs were good in the 2000s, but then LeBron James dissed them on national television; the Browns were good in the 1980s, but they consistently lost in heart-breaking fashion in the playoffs and have only had three winning seasons since; and the Indians were great in the late 1990s, but haven’t won a World Series since 1948. There are many markets in the running for the title of “most miserable fans,” and while I won’t go so far as to crown a winner, I think Cleveland has a case to be considered among the best (worst?) of them.

So it should come as no surprise that after the Indians’ hot start, which has included an eight-game winning streak and a sweep of the Boston Red Sox at home, some Cleveland fans are already talking about being buyers at the trade deadline and making a run for the playoffs. While obviously it’s waaay too early in the season to be making such pronouncements, is there reason for hope in Cleveland this season?

Read the rest of this entry »