When Javier Vazquez signed with the Florida Marlins there was hope that the National League East would once again be a safe haven for his right arm. After posting a 2.77 FIP and an identical 2.77 xFIP as a member of the Atlanta Braves in 2009, Vazquez failed in his second tour of duty with the New York Yankees. His struggles in New York were well documented (5.56 FIP/4.69 xFIP) and even more concerning than the results was a steep drop in velocity. Vazquez never threw much harder than the low-90s to begin with, but was struggling to top out in the high-80s in 2010.

Despite the loss of velocity, a move back to the National League seemed like a wise choice for Vazquez. But whatever plagued him in the Bronx has followed him to South Beach. Coming into his Monday night start against the Philadelphia Phillies, Vazquez had a 5.61 FIP with an xFIP above 6.0. He had more walks (21) than strikeouts (16), and allowed 35 hits in 31 innings despite a .290 BABIP.

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An accurate portrait of life at FanGraphs Headquarters.

This edition of One Night Only contains:

1. Expanded previews for three games: Tampa Bay at Cleveland, Halladay at Johnson, and Arizona at San Francisco.

2. Pitcher and Team NERD scores for every one of tonight’s games.

3. All the dreams of all the beautiful children.

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You know what statheads love to do? Find pet players who’ve been overlooked by teams, and lobby for them to find a real home. Often, we focus on players with strong minor league track records who’ve never gotten a shot because of perceived weaknesses, only to see those perceived weaknesses regurgitated by the big club as their numbers grow gaudier and gaudier. Ten years ago, we wanted to Free Erubiel Durazo. Now, we want to Free Brandon Allen.

We’ll also, on occasion, back a player with supposed attitude problems. Whether or not those problems are real or harmful, we will (sometimes) argue that consistent performance should outweigh a jerky demeanor. If the A’s of the 70s could put up a mini-dynasty with 25 men and 25 cabs, how much harm can one rouser of rabble cause? That was Milton Bradley, and that was us.

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Sorry for the lack of graphs. The site apparently thinks it is yesterday morning. This post should update soon after things get sorted out.

Youk’s idea of a celebration: tackling the dude to the ground and rolling around in the grass with him. Awk-ward.

Red Sox 2, Twins 1

Moving the Needle: Carl Crawford doubles home the winning run from first, +.356 WPA. It almost didn’t get this far. It took a balk and some help from the luck dragons to push across the tying run in the top of the eighth. Scoreless they remained until the bottom of the 11th, when Jed Lowrie drew a one-out walk. Jose Iglesias stepped in as the pinch runner, and when Carl Crawford flied one towards the Monster, Iglesias was off. (He was running with the pitch, but had to pause momentarily at second to make sure the ball would indeed hit the wall.) Ben Revere’s poor throw didn’t help, and Iglesias scored with relative ease, giving the Sox the game and a 3-1 series victory, after dropping the first game.

Notables

Josh Beckett: 7 IP, 6 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 5 K, 9 GB. Not his strongest start of the year, but it was, on a normal night, good enough to win in regulation. He has given up just 10 runs in 45.1 IP this season.

Also in this issue: Pirates 4, Dodgers 1 | Tigers 10, Blue Jays 5 | Phillies 6, Marlins 4 | Reds 6, Astros 1 | A’s 7, Rangers 2 | Brewers 4, Padres 3 | Rockies 2, Mets 1 | White Sox 8, Angels 0

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Despite returning much of the same staff that finished 3rd in the American League in WAR last season, the Minnesota Twins currently own the worst pitching staff in all of baseball. The Twins’ approach to pitching has already been highly criticized this season, beginning with their insistence that Francisco Liriano “pitch to contact.” Perhaps unsurprisingly, that approach may be the main cause of the Twins’ rotation struggles this season.
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Before we begin, all Indians fans reading this need to watch this clip. Go ahead, I’ll wait. Thank you. The major critics of our newly unveiled, and generally well received Power Rankings last week were Indians fans, who were up in arms about them being ranked so low, and specifically wanted the Fan Standings replaced with a different system. Unfortunately, the Indians actually fare better in the Fan Standings, which had the Tribe at 73 wins, than if we used ZiPS forecasted standings, which had them at 71. In general, I do understand the criticism of a subjective measure like the Fan Standings, but as Dave Cameron noted in last week’s comments, the Fan Standings actually have held up just as well as any other projection system. So while Indians fans aren’t going to be any happier this week, I think you all should all give yourselves some credit — the fans that have voted for our Fan Standings, i.e. you, are smarter than the average bear.

1. New York Yankees: Last week – 1, WAR% – .675 (1), FAN% – .580 (2), TOTAL% – .599
Did you hear that Derek Jeter homered? He was never likely to finish the year as bad as he started it, and he also comes home to this. In other words, you can stop pitying Jeter.

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Chris Ian–, I mean Ian Stewart (26) has been horrible in almost every way possible at the plate so far this season. The Colorado Rockies obviously thought so right away, and optioned him to Triple-A after only 28 plate appearances. He came back last week, and has thus far on the season has accumulated a terrifying .073/.174/.098 (.137 wOBA) line. There’s no doubt it has been ugly, and manager Jim Tracy has had it, saying that it is “time for Stewart to fish or cut bait. He’s either going to play his way in or play his way off the team.” Tracy is understandably frustrated, with the first-place Rockies losing four games in a row, including three to second-place San Francisco. However, as might be implied by Stewart be called back up after only a couple of weeks in the minors, it is not clear that the the Rockies really have any better alternative than playing Stewart at the moment.

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Going into this season, I thought I’d made a huge mistake. During the auction draft in my ottoneu league, I got distracted and ended up putting in the highest bid for a pitcher I hadn’t heard about much: Jaime Garcia. I knew enough about him to know he’d had a great 2010 season  (2.70 ERA, 3.41 FIP) and was still quite young, but due to being a Rays fan, I’m not as well versed on the National League. The more I looked into him after the draft, I saw analysts spelling doom for Garcia everywhere. He outperformed his peripherals. He struggled against righties. He got an artificial boost from Busch Stadium. He increased his innings total by around 120 IP from 2009 to 2010. The popular consensus seemed to be, “Don’t touch this guy!”, so I just added the incident to my long list of  “Reasons I Don’t Write About Fantasy Baseball” and moved on.

After his near perfect game on Friday night, though, it’s time someone pointed this out: Jaime Garcia has been darn good so far this season. And when I say good, I mean 1.99 ERA / 2.36 FIP good.

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We previously looked at the American League: AL West, the AL Central and the AL East. The National League Central is up next.

The first three rounds are listed for each team, plus any other above-slot signees.
(X = Signed to Over-Slot Deal; S = Supplemental Round; DNS = Did Not Sign)

The Arizona Diamondbacks
1st. Daniel Schlereth, LHP, Arizona
1S. Wade Miley, LHP, SE Louisiana
2nd. Bryan Shaw, RHP, Long Beach State
3rd. Kevin Eichhorn, RHP, California HS

The Arizona organization traded away the two best prospects it acquired during this draft in Daniel Schlereth and Kevin Eichhorn, both of whom went to the Detroit Tigers but in separate deals. Schlereth, along with Max Scherzer, helped the club acquire Edwin Jackson and Ian Kennedy. Eichhorn was given away for Armando Galarraga. One of the reasons that the organization has struggled to this point is because it traded away too much good, young talent in return for modest returns. Miley has the potential to be a useful pitcher at the MLB level but it might be as a middle reliever. The same can be said for Shaw. Collin Cowgill (5th round) has the potential to be a solid platoon or fourth outfielder and is off to a fast start in triple-A. The club could have significantly improved its draft haul if it had signed Danny Hultzen (10th round), who went to college and could be the first overall pick in the 2011 draft, or Daniel Webb (12th), who is showing flashes of potential after signing with the Jays out of Junior College in ’09.

The San Diego Padres
1st. Allan Dykstra, 1B, Wake Forest
1S. Jaff Decker, OF, Arizona HS
1S. Logan Forsythe, 3B, Arkansas
2nd. James Darnell, 3B, South Carolina
3rd. Blake Tekotte, OF, Miami
3S. Sawyer Carroll, OF, Kentucky
6thx – Cole Figueroa, 2B, Florida
8thx – Beamer Weems, SS, Baylor

The 2008 draft saw a huge run on college first basemen in the first round. San Diego was the last club to nab one and has had the least return on its investment. Now considered simply organizational depth, Dykstra was dealt to the New York Mets (who nabbed 1B Ike Davis in the same round) earlier this year and is striking out at a rate of 37.5 K% in double-A. Despite its early round disappointment, the club acquired Top 10 talents in Decker, Forsythe, and Darnell. Forsythe was just recalled by the big league club and has the potential to be a solid complementary everyday infielder. Just 21 and in double-A, Decker is striking out a lot but has an eye-popping .402 ISO rate. He could be in the Majors by the end of the season if he keeps hitting with authority, although he might be a bad fit for his home ball park. Third baseman James Darnell is also hitting well in double-A with an average of .415 and a walk rate of 19.4 BB%. Tekotte is another prospect that’s enjoying the potent Texas League with a .289 ISO, a .373 average and a strong walk rate. He could be a nice fourth outfielder. Jason Kipnis, now a top prospect with the Cleveland Indians, would have been a nice “get” in the fourth round. The club hasn’t had any luck with Weems or Figueroa (who was flipped to Tampa Bay in the Jason Bartlett trade).

The San Francisco Giants
1st. Buster Posey, C, Florida State
1S. Conor Gillaspie, 3B, Wichita State
3rd. Roger Kieschnick, OF, Texas Tech
4thx – Brandon Crawford, SS, UCLA

It was an easy decision for the Giants organization in the first round. The club lacked catching depth in the system and an impact player at the position was available when Baltimore took college lefty Brian Matusz. Posey has already helped the Giants organization win a World Series, although he’s off to a bit of a slow start to his sophomore season (.317 wOBA). After Posey, the club nabbed three more college bats in third baseman Gillaspie, outfielder Kieschnick, and shortstop Crawford. All three players have pluses and minuses, and none of them project to be impact players at the MLB level but could be solid complementary pieces. Gillaspie lacks power at the hot corner but he hits for average and gets on base. Crawford displays a nice glove and could develop into a utility player if he cannot offer enough offence to play every day. Kieschnick is more of a quad-A slugger. North Carolina State lefty Eric Surkamp (6th round) has been a steal. He just missed my FanGraphs Top 10 Giants prospect list this spring and is off to a nice start in 2011. He has a 2.67 FIP and a strikeout rate of 14.01 K/9 in 26.1 innings. Surkamp’s heater is fringe-average but both his curve and changeup are plus pitches.

The Los Angeles Dodgers
1st. Ethan Martin, RHP, Georgia HS
2nd. Josh Lindblom, RHP, Purdue
3rd. Kyle Russell, OF, Texas
9thx – Steve Caseres, 1B, James Madison
11thx – Nate Eovaldi, RHP, Texas HS

This draft certainly had some potential at the top with Martin and Lindblom but both pitchers have imploded in the past year. When he can find the plate, Martin can strikeout batters with the best of them (12.17 K/9 in ’11) but he doesn’t find the dish that much (6.46 BB/9). Lindblom has turned things around a bit this season despite a 5.11 FIP in double-A. Last year, he gave up 143 hits in 95.0 triple-A innings. Russell flashed some impressive power in college but he, like Kieschnick in San Francisco, is more of a quad-A slugger thanks to his serious contact issues. The club found its top prospect in the fourth round with Dee Gordon, the son of former Royals/Red Sox pitcher Tom ‘Flash’ Gordon. He’s performing well at triple-A in 2011 at the age of 23. The junior Gordon stole 126 bases between 2009-10 but was also caught 46 times. Allen Webster (18th round) is another key prospect acquired in this draft, making up for the top picks. He has the potential to develop into a solid No. 2 starter. He has a 2.85 FIP in 34.1 high-A innings. Outfielder Jerry Sands (25th) was a find. He recently made his MLB debut and projects to be at least an average MLB corner outfielder. Eovaldi is starting to come into his own and could be another key piece of this draft class. He has a 2.60 FIP in 23.1 double-A innings at the age of 21. He has a mid-90s fastball but needs to work on his secondary pitches and his control. Third baseman Zack Cox would have been an absolute steal in the 20th round.

The Colorado Rockies
1st. Christian Friedrich, LHP, E Kentucky
2nd. Charlie Blackmon, OF, Georgia Tech
3rd. Aaron Weatherford, RHP, Mississ State
14thx – Joseph Massey, OF, Tennessee HS
37thx – Delta Cleary, OF, Louisiana JC

If he can stay healthy, Friedrich could end up being the best pitcher acquired by any NL West team in the ’08 draft, with apologies to Webster and Surkamp, but health and consistency will be key. The lefty has an ugly 6.31 FIP in 25.2 double-A innings but his FIP sits at 4.33. Blackmon is now in triple-A and has excellent numbers in a potent league. He has an intriguing mix of power and speed but it remains to be seen how well each plays in the Majors. If everything clicks, he could be a solid big league regular. If not, he should be a solid fourth outfielder. Weatherford, Massey, and Cleary have all been disappointments. Right-hander Jordan Swagerty, ultimately drafted and signed by St. Louis, would have been a great grab in the 44th round.