Yesterday was the deadline for arbitration-eligible players and their teams to exchange dueling salary figures in advance of arbitration hearings in February. The San Francisco Giants set a record in their $17 million offer to Tim Lincecum, the highest such amount ever offered a player with fewer than six years of service time. Lincecum countered with his own record-setting figure of $21.5 million.

Those numbers are close enough to lay the groundwork for a deal between Lincecum and the Giants, somewhere in the $19-$20 million range. That’s right where our own Matt Swartz pegged Lincecum’s 2012 salary ($19.2 million) in his arbitration predictions published at MLB Trade Rumors.

If the two sides don’t reach agreement before an arbitration hearing, who has the better case?

Baseball arbitrators are to make their decision based on the player’s performance, his prior salary, and the salaries of other players in his service-time class. The arbitration rules, however, do contain a “special accomplishments” provision which allows players to compare themselves to other players who’ve achieved similar accomplishments in the same time frame.

To the numbers.

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The Indians lack depth, but there’s no disputing that Cleveland has a promising core group of young position players. The foursome of Asdrubal Cabrera, Lonnie Chisenhall, Jason Kipnis and Carlos Santana range in age from 23 to 26, and each has the potential to become a perennial All-Star. Indians skipper Manny Acta shared his thoughts on each of them, as well as on 29-year-old Shin-Soo Choo.

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Acta on second baseman Jason Kipnis: “This guy is just a full package of energy. He’s a really competitive kid that can swing the bat and is not intimidated at all. Everybody knew that whenever he got up to the big leagues he was going to be able to compete offensively, and he showed that.

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Catching is supposed to be the activity that slowly robs young men of their athleticism, but it was training that felled Victor Martinez. After keeping his legs fresh while being a primary catcher for seven years, the 33-year-old tore his ACL while ramping up his regimen for the coming season. Injuries can come at any time, and now the Tigers have a hole in their lineup that they need to fill.

How might they fill that hole?

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Episode 126
Each week, we talk with managing editor Dave Cameron. Never before, though, have we spoken with Cameron a mere 24 hours after a giant, important appearance on MLB Network’s Clubhouse Confidential. Discussed: Cameron’s fame, the deadline for exchanging arbitration figures, Prince Fielder. Played: Baseball America Questions.

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.

You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio after the jump. (Approximately 35 min. play time.)

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The Nationals have not been shy about their dealings with Gio Gonzalez. First, they dealt three of their top 10 prospects — including two of their top three — for the 26-year-old hurler. Then, over the weekend, the Nationals completed the bond, signing the lefty to a contract extension worth $42 million over the next five years. The contract also includes two club options for a combined $23 million.

The deal covers the Nationals’ last four years of control of Gonzalez (including his Super Two season this year) and buys out one year of free agency. Judging by similar deals we’ve seen in recent years, the Nationals don’t just see Gonzalez as a decent number-two starter. They think he’s an ace.

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Over the last couple of years, I’ve expressed an amount of skepticism relating to Jesus Montero’s status as an elite prospect. Essentially, my argument has been that since Montero is likely to be the kind of player who produces all of his value at the plate, he’s going to have to develop into a monster hitter to justify the expectations placed upon him. For bat-only players, the offensive bar to become a superstar is extremely high, so Montero would have to become one of the very best hitters in baseball to be a truly elite player.

The counterpoint has usually been that Montero is going to become one of those hitters, with scouts comparing his offensive profile to Mike Piazza and Miguel Cabrera, among others. He’s extremely strong, he’s got pretty good plate coverage, and he’s held his own in the minors while being pushed aggressively up through the minor leagues. Several of the game’s best hitters had very similar development paths, and it’s clear that Montero could develop into that kind of offensive force. Given what the Mariners paid to get him, they’re clearly hoping for that outcome.

Still, Cabrera and Piazza are Montero’s ceiling – the best possible outcome if he continues to develop, stays healthy, and maximizes his physical abilities – but projecting a player solely based on upside will often lead you astray. In evaluating Montero as an offensive prospect, we need to not only know what his ceiling would be, but the range of potential outcomes and the likelihood of each one coming to pass. To find a more complete picture of what a Montero-style hitting prospect usually turns into, we turn to history and the lessons of players who were lauded in similar ways as Montero is now.

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The Texas Rangers organization is solid top to bottom with both high-ceiling talents and depth. In looking at the Top 10 prospects we can see that the organization’s main strengths are pitching and up-the-middle offensive players.

1. Jurickson Profar, SS
BORN: Feb. 20, 1993
EXPERIENCE: 2 seasons
ACQUIRED: 2009 international free agent
2010-11 TOP 10 RANKING: 1st

The Rangers organization already has a dynamic young shortstop in Elvis Andrus but Profar gives them a second potential all star player at that position. In fact, he has the potential to be even better than the incumbent. Playing well below the league average age in ’11, Profar showed an outstanding understanding of the strike zone, and he showed his advanced understanding of the game by going to the plate with an idea of what he wanted to do. In the field, the young player has a strong arm and excellent range. He could develop into a plus defender in time. Look for Profar to begin 2012 in high-A ball but he could see double-A by mid-season.

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The Reds have made it very clear that they’re going all-in this offseason, presumably in an effort to maximize their chances of winning a title before Joey Votto qualifies for free agency after the 2013 season. GM Walt Jocketty opened up the prospect vault to acquire Mat Latos and Sean Marshall, then landed what could potentially be the bargain of the offseason by signing Ryan Madson to a sweetheart one-year contract. Those moves all improve the team, but at the same time the club sacrificed outfield depth.

Drew Stubbs and Jay Bruce are locked into the center and right field jobs, and Chris Heisey made a pretty good case for the left field gig by slugging 18 homers with a .233 ISO in 308 plate appearances last year. In 534 plate appearances over the last two seasons, he’s hit 26 balls out of the park. Beyond those three, the only other outfielder on the team’s 40-man roster is Denis Phipps, a 25-year-old that posted a .346/.397/.527 batting line between Double and Triple-A in 2011 after hitting just .250/.307/.377 in his previous 2,319 minor league plate appearances. The trades of Dave Sappelt (for Marshall) and nominal outfielder Yonder Alonso (for Latos) along with the free agent departure of Fred Lewis have left the club thin at the position(s).

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