Archive for August, 2012

Table of Contents

1. The Mike Trout Leaderboard
2. Michael Fiers in a Notable Game of the Day, Among Other Such Games
3. Complete Schedule of Today’s Games

The Mike Trout Leaderboard
Why Does the Mike Trout Leaderboard Appear Today of All Days?
Because no one besides me is going to do it.

And because it’s Mike Trout’s birthday; he turns 21 today.

Where Might Mr. Trout Choose to Imbibe Legally, Now That He’s 21?
Why, quite fittingly at Trout River Brewing.

Which Other 20- or 21-Year-Old Has Done What Mike Trout Has Done?

The Mike Trout Leaderboard

As you can see, no 20- or 21- year old in the history of Major League Baseball has hit at least 19 HR, 21 doubles, and stolen at least 35 bases while posting an OPS over 1.000.

Eliminate the OPS requirement and it’s still only one other player who’s done what Trout has done: in 1972, as a 21-year-old centerfielder* for the Astros, Cesar Cedeno hit 39 doubles, 22 HR, and stole 55 bases while posting an OPS of .921 in 625 PA. Cedeno posted 8.8 WAR that year, but was out-fielded* by a couple of Reds that year and thus missed out in the MVP voting.

Trout should surpass Cedeno’s HR total and could approach his SB total. However, one would be remiss not to note that Cedeno was caught stealing 21 times in 1972; Trout has been caught just three times so far this year.

What Should You Do With the Mike Trout Leaderboard?
I recommend printing off several copies and distributing them around the office, or during show and tell at your next family reunion.

What Should You Do With the Printed Copies of the Mike Trout Leaderboard After Your Family and Co-Workers Are “Done” With Them?
You might papier-mâché them into a piñata to serve as a centerpiece of a party that celebrates the birth, life, and young achievements of Mike Trout.

Why Throw Such a Party?
For the enjoyment of said.

*These items were edited based on reader comments below. Thanks!
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Ian Desmond has become a legitimate threat in the lineup. This may come as a big surprise to fans of sabermetrics, as Desmond’s swing-happy approach, led to him being one of the worst regulars in baseball. Last season, Desmond finished ahead of only Yuniesky Betancourt and Alex Gonzalez in WAR at the shortstop position. This year, he trails Elvis Andrus 3.8 to 3.7. If not for a recent oblique injury, Desmond would likely be the most valuable shortstop in baseball this season. While his approach hasn’t changed much, there are some signs that he’s become a better player.

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Andrew McCutchen is chasing a batting title — he leads the National League with a .369 average — as well as an MVP award. The 25-year-old Pittsburgh Pirates outfielder tops the senior circuit in WAR and ranks second in OPS and runs scored. More importantly, he’s the catalyst for a team contending for its first playoff berth in two decades.

McCutchen talked about his approach to the game — and what it means to wear a Pirates uniform — last week at Wrigley Field.

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McCutchen on why he plays baseball: “It’s what I want to do and it’s what I’ve always wanted to do. Ever since I was 5 years old, it’s been the sport I really love. It’s really that simple. I could do other things, but not only can I play this game, I love playing this game. That’s been the case ever since I was a very young age.”

On baseball history: “History means a lot. You pay attention to what happened back in the day, from the early years all the way to where we are now. That’s especially true when you’re playing somewhere like we are today, in a ballpark like Wrigley Field. It’s the oldest park in the league and the more you know about it, the more you’re going to appreciate it. History is definitely a big part of this game.

“One of the reasons I appreciate being in a Pirates uniform is the greats who have worn it in the past. There was Bill Mazeroski hitting the walk-off home run to win the World Series. There was Roberto Clemente wearing the number 21. There was Pops: Willie Stargell. There was Dave Parker: Cobra. To think about all the players who have worn this uniform, being a part of this franchise means a lot to me. A lot of great players have played this game, and I’m just happy to be a part of the black and gold. Read the rest of this entry »

Ben and Sam talk about the presents, futures, and contracts of two starters having interesting seasons: Cliff Lee and Ben Sheets.

Back in mid-March I took a look at some interesting names that were making the conversion from minor league hitters to pitchers. The biggest success, so far, has been the emergence of Oakland’s Sean Doolittle who has now pitched 23.1 big league innings. Let’s see how everyone is doing as the minor league regular season starts to wind down.

Kyler Burke, Chicago Cubs (CF to LHP)

Burke, 24, is the rare conversion project who is being used in the starting rotation, as opposed to the bullpen. Hitters-turned-pitchers usually have more success in the bullpen because they have fewer pitches to polish and can move quickly (They’re typically older and a few years behind the eight ball once they start pitching). Burke began the year in low-A ball and made 15 appearances (10 starts) and is now pitching in high-A where he’s made another eight starts. His control has been good but his strikeout rate is low at 6.64 K/9. He could be ready for double-A to begin 2013.

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First basemen and outfielders seem pretty overpaid if we look at their salaries and their WAR. At the same time, catchers and the three other infield positions seem pretty underpaid. As I showed in February, second basemen were only paid about $3 million per WAR from 2007 to 2011; first basemen were paid exactly twice that much. I think I might know why.

Claims that some positions are relative bargains using $/WAR hinge on “positional adjustments” — estimates of how much more valuable equivalent production is from different positions — using what hypothetical defensive performance would be if you moved players between positions. Last month, I looked into how much credit general managers seem to give performance at different positions, and how offensive performance varied across those positions. My logic was that, if the average first baseman produces only a few more runs per season than the average second baseman, then it may explain why general managers pay so much more for power-hitting first basemen.

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When the New York Yankees selected Cito Culver in the first round of the 2010 draft, the pick was met with surprise — shock actually. From upstate New York, the teenage shortstop was pegged as a third round pick or later by most accounts. Two years later, Culver’s batting average is just above the “Mendoza Line” and his slugging percentage sits below .300.

Video after the jump

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Over the weekend, I had the pleasure of attending the Saber Seminar in Boston, an event put on by Chuck Korb and Dan Brooks to help raise money for The Jimmy Fund, and the event was wildly successful in that regard, raising close to $20,000 for cancer research and care.

The event was also successful from a baseball perspective, as there were a number of interesting presentations and discussions. I was asked to be part of the final panel on Sunday, and was tasked with talking about something relating to “The Future of Sabermetrics”. While most panels on this topic at various conferences over the last few years have focused on things like Field F/x and ball/player tracking technology that may never become public, I decided to talk about an area where I think those of us who are interested in researching the game have not put enough effort into understanding – the driving factors behind changes in attendance.

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After a tremendous +6.5 win season in 2010, the Milwaukee Brewers signed second baseman Rickie Weeks to a four-year, $38.5M contract extension in February 2011.

He followed up his breakout campaign with a +3.7 win season in an injury-shortened 2011, in which he proved 2010 was not a fluke by hitting .269/.350/.468 with 20 home runs and a .358 wOBA. Expectations were sky-high coming into 2012, and the Brewers were relying upon his bat to soften the impact of losing Prince Fielder to Detroit over the offseason.

Instead, Weeks imploded to begin the 2012 season and has essentially been a replacement-level player on the year. He hit below the Mendoza Line from April 29 to July 13 and has the fifth-highest strikeout percentage amongst qualified hitters in the National League at 27.0%. His current .314 wOBA is almost 50-points lower than his wOBA from last season.

Though it’s difficult to categorize 2012 as anything other than a disappointment for Weeks, the 29-year-old has quietly turned his season around this summer and looks a lot more like the Rickie Weeks the baseball community has become accustomed to seeing at the plate.

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Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of Daily Notes.

1. Expected wRC+ for the Cape Cod League
2. Today’s MLB.TV Free Game
3. Today’s Complete Schedule

Expected wRC+ for the Cape Cod League
Regarding What This Is
What follows is a so-called Expected wRC+ Leaderboard for the very prestigious Cape Cod Baseball League of Cape Cod, a summer wood-bat league that, generally speaking, features the country’s best college prospects.

Regarding Expected wRC+, What That Could Possibly Be
One assumes that Expected wRC+ could be any number of things. In this particular case, however, it’s an attempt to represent in one number — a number a lot like wRC+, that is — something close to the “true talent” production of a player.

Regarding Expected wRC+, How the Author Calculated It
To calculate Expected wRC+, I found the home-run, walk, and strikeout rates for all the batters in the very prestigious Cape Cod League. After that, I attempted to find “expected” versions of those three rates by weighting each of them against league average until they reached their sample threshold for reliability.

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