Ben and Sam discuss the Royals, and then they discuss the Royals some more.

Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of Daily Notes.

1. The Season So Far in Bunting
2. A Philosophical Query: Matt Harvey Versus Diminishing Returns
3. Today’s Notable Games (Including MLB.TV Free Game)
4. Today’s Complete Schedule, Including an Unseemly Copout

The Season So Far in Bunting
People are still bunting! Let’s talk about it a little.

Managers Still Don’t Understand Leverage
Here is a graph displaying all sacrifice bunts in 2012, based on the inning they take place:

Shamefaced edit: Mitch correctly points out a flaw in my methodology, which includes National League pitchers in my data. Given the numbers I used, I have no easy way to remove them, so instead I’ve included here, via hypertextual link, the innings in which AL sacrifice bunts were made.

And Yet People Still Care About Lineup Construction
Here is a graph displaying the WPA of sacrifice bunts by each team in 2012 (click to enlarge):

Worst Sacrifice Bunt of the Year So Far: Alcides Escobar, 6/17/12. Game tied 2-2, top of the 11th, runners on first and third. Escobar bunts hard to first, and Franceour is nailed at home. The Royals go on to win anyway, 5-3, but the bunt is worth -0.23 WPA.

Best Sacrifice Bunt of the Year So Far: Erick Aybar, 5/25/12. Down 4-3 against closer Brandon League in the bottom of the 9th with runners on first and second and no outs, Aybar lays down a sacrifice, with League promptly throws into the seats. Everyone gets two bases and the Angels go on to win 6-4. The bunt, error and all, nets 0.39 WPA.

Sacrifice Bunting Is Not Good For The Economy or Baseball
Total WPA of all 1,435 sacrifice bunts laid down thus far in 2012: -11.1.

Read the rest of this entry »

Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of Daily Notes.

1. A Brief Discussion Of Happiness
2. Today’s Notable Games (Including MLB.TV Free Game)
3. Today’s Complete Schedule

A Brief Discussion of Happiness
Given that we find ourselves in the tranquil moments between Dan Straily’s fine debut yesterday and Matt Harvey’s future deeds, this is an excellent moment to pause and reflect on our appreciation of the game of baseball. If one is available, I suggest grabbing a croissant or Danish as you begin to contemplate today’s arsenal of baseball activities.

To that end, and with the welfare of our thoughtful and intrepid readership in mind, I’ll paraphrase a few thoughts by Bertrand Russell, as compiled in his 1930 book “The Conquest of Happiness”. Although Russell himself did not follow the game, he supported it in a philosophical sense, including it in the “impersonal interests” which, by distracting us from the crucial and stressful elements of work, marriage and parenthood, provide an invaluable source of happiness. He relates the following mysterious anecdote:

Or consider again the passionate joy of the baseball fan: he turns to his newspaper with avidity, and the radio affords him the keenest thrills. I remember meeting for the first time one of the leading literary men of America, a man whom I had supposed from his books to be filled with melancholy. But it so happened that at that moment the most crucial baseball results were coming through on the radio; he forgot me, literature, and all the other sorrows of our sublunary life, and yelled with joy as his favourites achieved victory. Ever since this incident I have been able to read his books without feeling depressed by the misfortunes of his characters.

The identity of this fan is lost to history, though the names of Eliot (a miserable Red Sox fan) and Hemingway (a content Yankees fan) have been suggested.

More than escape, however, Russell prizes baseball (in theory) for its ability to create “a friendly interest in persons and things.” Specifically, baseball creates a bond of fellowship that connects us to the fan and faceless internet commenter beside us. It allows us to exist alongside others, to feel a sense of community, while maintaining our own individuality.

In summary, the purpose of this unsolicited commentary is to suggest that despite the fact that no GIF file may be created from today’s events, and that for the most part the contending teams are all facing lesser opponents that they are expected to defeat, we can still derive some happiness from today’s games, meaningless as they may appear. Please go and do so.

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Dave Cameron already covered the best and most obvious candidate in Cliff Lee here. Here are three more pitchers who could get moved as a post-waiver deal:

Brandon McCarthy

McCarthy could potentially pass through waivers due to the shoulder injury he suffered back on June 24. Although he’s already in the middle of a rehab assignment, he was crushed (six runs in 3.2 innings) in his first start. As such, he could potentially slip through waivers.

Although it would seem odd for the A’s to deal a pitcher of McCarthy’s caliber — 2.54 ERA, 3.39 FIP and coming off a similar season last year — they have much bigger needs than starting pitching right now. Oakland starting pitchers notched a 3.60 ERA and 3.26 FIP with McCarthy out.

Instead, the Athletics have major needs on the left side of the infield. Brandon Inge (.221/.278/.398, 82 wRC+) has somewhat stabilized the position, giving them at least some pop and a good glove. But shortstop remains a disaster, with Brandon Hicks’s .183/.246/.417 in 65 PA the best hitting performance the club has seen at the position this season. Cliff Pennington and Eric Sogard own wRC+ marks of 51 and 42 respectively.

McCarthy’s is eligible for free agency after the season. He is clearly good enough to help the A’s win in 2012, but if the A’s can fetch a reasonable shortstop for him, the upgrade could be bigger than the upgrade he presents over Bartolo Colon or A.J. Griffin or recent callup Dan Straily. The shortstop market was so rough prior to the waiver deadline, though, so there just might not be a match out there.

Josh Beckett

Beckett, due $31.5 million over the next two seasons and having his next start skipped to boot, should have no trouble clearing waivers. He’s having his usual even-year bad season (at least in terms of results), posting a 4.54 ERA. His strikeout rate is a career low 6.81 per nine innings and injuries have limited him to just 18 starts. Still, he has a FIP- of 82 and showed as recently as last season he can still put up elite results with his solid peripherals, notching a 68 ERA- to go with an 84 FIP-.

The Rangers were among the teams to show interest in Beckett prior to the trading deadline and could remain on the Rangers’ radar should he clear waivers, although the Ryan Dempster . However, despite classic media-driven issues such as those surrounding a round of golf in May, Beckett likely hasn’t done enough to force himself out — the Red Sox likely aren’t willing to take a discounted price just to get rid of him.

Randy Wolf

The Brewers would love to get rid of Randy Wolf not only because of the price tag — he has just over $3 million remaining on this year’s deal as well as a $1.5 million buyout of next year’s option — but also because the Brewers may want the opportunity to give their younger players some chances in the major leagues. The Brewers are trying to see what they have in players like Michael Fiers, Marco Estrada, Mark Rogers and also minor leaguers like Wily Peralta and Tyler Thornburg. Once Shaun Marcum returns from his injury, there will only be two spots for those youngsters (after Yovani Gallardo, Marcum and Wolf).

Wolf has been horrible this season, with a 5.45 ERA and 4.78 FIP. His 2.10 K/BB is actually slightly better than last season, when he notched a 98 ERA-, but the home run issues have returned, as Wolf is allowing 1.36 HR/9. The upside is minimal, but ZiPS projects a 4.29 ERA the rest of the way, which could be an improvement on a few fifth starters for contending teams. Jayson Stark said the Brewers would trade Randy Wolf “for nothing if you take the money,” so the risk for an acquiring team would be minimal. A team with a fly ball friendly park might be able to make it work for a tiny cost.

The drastic decline in run scoring the last few years has been a major story, especially as it related to the rise in drug testing and the end of the so-called “steroid era” in Major League Baseball. There’s no denying the fact that offense has tumbled in the sport, with the league average wOBA falling from a high of .341 back in 1999 to the .316 of today. As baseball has worked to eliminate performance enhancing drugs, scoring runs has become more difficult.

But, perhaps an underreported aspect of this story is that home runs are making their way back into Major League Baseball this year.

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Whether fair or not, being a first round pick carries lofty expectations. In the case of Phillies prospect Larry Greene, my assumption was that the young outfielder would be the best player on the field when seeing him play about a month ago. To my surprise, he wound up being the third best prospect on his own team behind shortstop Roman Quinn and third baseman Mitch Walding whom I’ve written about recently.

Video after the jump

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Alfonso Soriano

Soriano’s power remains alive in his age-36 season. The sixth-year Cub owns a .499 slugging percentage thanks to 19 home runs and 22 doubles in 359 at-bats for a .226 ISO. This year, the hits are falling in as well, giving him a solid .272/.322/.499 line, enough for a 113 wRC+. Although his 2.9 WAR is inflated by an extremely iffy +12 UZR, he’s having a productive year for the second time in three seasons.

But it’s still not an $18 million season, and although Soriano is worth playing and even worth paying a moderate sum for, the Cubs want nothing to do with his $36 million owed over the next two seasons. If they can get a team to eat any sort of significant chunk of that contract, we might see Soriano man a corner for a playoff-contending team. The Tigers were connected in rumors as well, as the Giants, but the Hunter Pence acquisition likely closes that door.

Michael Cuddyer

Cuddyer is showing the kind of power boost expected from a player moving to Coors Field from Target Field. His ISO has inflated from .176 to a solid .226, with just five fewer home runs (15) in nearly 200 fewer plate appearances.

However, the increase in his quality of contact has been mitigated by an inability to actually make contact. His 19.5% strikeout rate is his highest since 2007, lowering his batting average and OBP to .260 and .317 respectively. The result is a mere 104 wRC+ out of a 33-year-old with $21 million remaining over two seasons on his contract. Again, useful, and a potential improvement for some teams, but not worth the money.

So nobody would claim him, one would think, except Jeff Passan noted at least one general manager would “love to overpay Cuddyer.” Either way, the Rockies get a chance to work out a deal with a claiming team or Cuddyer passes through and the entire market is available – if, of course, Dan O’Dowd and crew are willing to deal.

Jeff Francoeur

Francoeur is in the midst of his worst year ever, hitting .238/.275/.366 (66 wRC+), with his .128 ISO his lowest since his disastrous 2008 season (.239/.294/.359, 70 wRC+). That season was the beginning of the end in Atlanta, even though he got 324 more pitiful (65 wRC+) plate appearances in 2009 with Atlanta before his traded to the Mets.

And so his path as a Royal becomes extremely similar to his tenures with Atlanta and New York. Start out hot – 117 wRC+ in debut year with Kansas City, 126 with Atlanta, 115 with New York – follow up with a big fizzle, and finish with a disappointing trade for a non-asset.

Francoeur’s clubhouse presence has convinced teams to add him despite similarly horrible seasons to his 2012 to date – he had a 65 wRC+ and a 76 wRC+ prior to his last two trades respectively. And he does have two marketable and easily-leveraged skills: a bat that typically crushes left-handers (.292/.339/.484 career line, although just .226/.268/.396 this year) and an arm that haunts opposing baserunners.

Teams won’t eat much of Francoeur’s $9.5 million remaining price tag, but the Royals shouldn’t require much to trade him – Wil Myers is ready and waiting to take his spot, and he won’t be up just to sit on the bench.

Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of Daily Notes.

1. The Briefest of Announcements
2. Featured Game: Toronto at Oakland, 22:05 ET ET
3. Today’s MLB.TV Free Game
4. Today’s Complete Schedule

The Briefest of Announcements
The author will be attending the wedding of a good friend in Cambridge this weekend and then eating delicious seafood in Cape Cod after that. The mostly able Patrick Dubuque and Robert J. Baumann, both of NotGraphs, will cover the Notes on Saturday and Sunday (Dubuque) and then Tuesday and Wednesday (Baumann). Please treat them just as poorly as you would treat me.

Featured Game: Toronto at Oakland, 22:05 ET
Regarding This Game, What’s Notable About It
What’s notable about this game is how 23-year-old right-hander Daniel Straily is making his debut in it for Oakland.

Regarding Daniel Straily, Who That Is
Daniel Straily is a pitcher who posted a line very similar to this one at Double-A Midland this year: 85.1 IP, 11.39 K/9, 2.43 BB/9, 0.63 HR/9, 2.57 FIP. And a line almost precisely like this one at Triple-A Sacramento (also this year): 53.0 IP, 11.38 K/9, 2.38 BB/9, 0.51 HR/9, 2.20 FIP.

A Thing the Reader Might Enjoy About Daniel Straily
One thing the reader might enjoy about Daniel Straily is that, while he’s not particularly big (he’s listed at 6-foot-2), his heart is actually 10-feet tall.

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The Miami Marlins grand experiment hasn’t worked this year, leading to the trades of Hanley Ramirez, Anibal Sanchez, Omar Infante and Randy Choate before the non-waiver trade deadline. In a perfect world, they wouldn’t have had to trade those players, because they would still be fighting for a playoff spot at this point in the season. But it hasn’t been a perfect world for the Marlins, and one of the major imperfections is the performance of high-priced reliever Heath Bell.

Signed to a lucrative three-year deal this offseason, Bell was supposed to help transform the Marlins into legitimate championship contenders. He has, however, been quite bad, losing the confidence of his manager and the closer role itself, and there haven’t been any signs of him turning things around.

The Marlins have already unloaded a number of valuable assets, but have had trouble finding a suitor for Bell. That’s what tends to happen with relievers who make a lot of money despite being shells of their former selves. Bell was already linked to the Red Sox in a rumor that had him and Hanley heading to Boston in exchange for Carl Crawford. The deal never materialized, but it was a very interesting thought experiment, as the salaries getting swapped were similar and the move represented a change-of-scenery challenge for those involved.

According to a recent Ken Rosenthal report, the Marlins were engaged in another change-of-scenery challenge trade involving Bell this week. This time, they spoke to the Mets about trading Bell and catcher John Buck for Jason Bay. No formal deal was proposed and the idea didn’t truly gain traction, but it again represented an interesting idea. Considering that no other team is going to relieve the Marlins of Bell’s salary, or the Mets of Bay’s, this is a deal worth revisiting before the waiver deadline.

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Jeff Manto stresses approach over mechanics and believes in letting a hitter be himself. The philosophy is paying dividends for the first-year Chicago White Sox hitting coach, as his team currently ranks sixth in MLB in runs scored and fifth in home runs. A big part of that success has been the reemergence of Adam Dunn and Alex Rios, who have flourished under his watch.

Manto shared his thoughts on hitting, and four key members of the White Sox lineup, last month at Fenway Park.

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Manto on Adam Dunn and confidence: “Adam has great athleticism. He really has a good bottom half in his swing, and as big as he is, he has great eye-hand coordination — despite his strikeouts. He has the ability to put a lot of balls in play, although it’s not necessarily happening right now. And he has a great swing path.

“I would define athleticism, for a hitter, as being able get to all parts of the plate. There are some guys who become too mechanical and strictly have the ability to hit middle-in. Athleticism is showing the ability to take a left-handed curveball, or a left-handed slider, that’s down and away and hit it to left-center. Adam can do that.

“Adam’s swing path is… I don’t know if ‘traditional’ is the right word, but it’s a bat path that comes down through the zone. He has some length in his swing behind him and he has great length out in front of him. Read the rest of this entry »