Archive for October, 2012

Daily Notes, Ft. a Summary of Jeurys Familia’s Debut

Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of Daily Notes.

1. Brief Summary: Jeurys Familia’s First MLB Start
2. Other Notable Games (Including MLB.TV Free Game)
3. Today’s Complete Schedule

Brief Summary: Jeurys Familia’s First MLB Start
What Happened Last Night
Last night, Mets right-hander and noted prospect Jeurys Familia made his first major-league start (after seven relief appearances) — and did so in front of the excellent and straight-on Marlins center-field camera.

Familia’s Line
Here was Familia’s line from the same start (box): 4.0 IP, 17 TBF, 3 K, 6 BB, 3 GB on 8 batted-balls (37.5% GB), 7.94 xFIP.

Jeurys Familia’s Best Fastball
This is what Jeurys Familia’s best fastball looks like (to Carlos Lee in the second):

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Q&A: Francisco Lindor, Indians Top Prospect

Francisco Lindor is the Cleveland Indians’ shortstop of the future and the top prospect in the system. At the age of 18, he also likely several years away from the big leagues. Drafted eighth overall in 2011, the switch-hitting native of Puerto Rico spent the season with low-A Lake County where he hit .257/.352/.355. An outstanding defensive infielder, he is rated by Baseball America as the game’s 14th-best prospect. Lindor talked about his development — on both sides of the ball — in early August.

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David Laurila: Scouts speak highly of your defense.

Francisco Lindor: I’m proud of that and pretty confident about my defensive game. I work hard on it and take great pride in it. I try to get better every day. I come out here and get my ground balls and double plays. It’s been a big part of my game since I was little, and it will be for the rest of my career.

DL: How much of defensive ability is instinctual?

FL: You need to have the instincts to play shortstop, because you have to anticipate all the time. You also have to prepare yourself. You have to anticipate and prepare yourself for what will happen next. It’s a big combination of both.

[Reading a hitter] depends on the swing and how we’re working him, whether we’re working him inside or away, or with off-speed pitches. You have to know. You have to be alert on every pitch — where the catcher is and where [the pitcher] is going to throw — and you also have to know the player’s swing. And on two strikes, they change their swing, sometimes. You have to read that. You have to think, and anticipate what he’s trying to do, whether he wants to move the runner from second to third or hit something in the gap — drive it. You have to anticipate and know the game.

DL: Do you position yourself or is that the responsibility of the coaching staff?

FL: I kind of know the hitters here, from playing against them all year, so I pretty much locate myself. Read the rest of this entry »


Effectively Wild Episode 54: Jeff Luhnow’s Season-Ending Interview Idea/Why Players and Executives Disagree About the AL MVP

Ben and Sam discuss Jeff Luhnow’s plan to interview his players at the end of each season, then talk about why players and front-office executives are backing different candidates for AL MVP.


Mike Trout and the Stretch Run

Let us acknowledge, with the 2012 regular season drawing to a close, that there’s been a fun debate surrounding the American League Most Valuable Player award. If not fun, then — at the very least — interesting. Let us acknowledge that there was a time at which it looked like voters would really, deeply, have to think. Let us now acknowledge that, with the Tigers probably going to the playoffs and the Angels probably not going to the playoffs, there’s probably going to be a little less thought, at least for some. It looked like we were going to have a rare contest between two guys not playing extra baseball, but now it’s looking like no such luck.

It’s all about Mike Trout and Miguel Cabrera, with Adrian Beltre being the subject of the occasional whisper. Pretty much everybody I’ve read has an opinion one way or the other; I suppose without an opinion, one probably wouldn’t be writing. Trout has many of the overall season numbers on his side, and the Cabrera argument wouldn’t have so much steam if it weren’t for his torrid offense down the stretch when the Tigers have needed it most. Cabrera, they say, has stepped up while Trout has stepped back, and these have been the most meaningful games. And that’s why Cabrera is deserving of consideration, at the very least.

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Newman’s Own: Best First Basemen of 2012

Seeing prospects in person is my passion. In 2012, I was fortunate enough to visit parks in five different leagues — collecting information and video on 200 legitimate prospects or more. The lists released over the next few weeks will highlight the best prospects I’ve seen in person at each position during the 2012 season. The rankings will be adjusted based on projected position at the major league level, not present position (in italics if ranking includes position shift). Additionally, I’ll do my best to rank based on notes/video from the park and avoid adjusting for statistics after the fact. Keep this in mind when working through the lists and understand this is not meant to be a complete list of the best prospects at each position across all of Minor League Baseball, but the best of what I’ve seen.

Previous Rankings:
The Catchers

With names like Pujols, Fielder and Gonzalez manning first base at the major league level, prospect followers generally assume the minor league crop of first sackers includes the next wave of impact performers. Nothing could be further from the truth. As evidenced by this list, it’s actually the thinnest position I’ve seen from a prospect standpoint this season. Hence, the inclusion of two second base prospects, a third base prospect and outfield prospect who project to move at some point.

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Mike Napoli, and What Ownership Could Look Like

When the Angels traded actual value(!) for the overwhelming bulk of Vernon Wells‘ contract(!), it didn’t look like there were very many ways by which the Angels could come away looking smart. There were more ways by which the Angels could come away feeling content, though, like if Wells performed well enough, even if not well enough to be worth his salary. These days the Angels appear neither smart nor content, although in fairness the front office has since turned over. What the Angels didn’t need was for Wells to suck. What the Angels really didn’t need on top of Wells sucking was for Mike Napoli to hit the crap out of the Angels.

Sunday, the Angels and the Rangers played a critical doubleheader. The Angels won the first game, and Mike Napoli went 0-for-1 as a pinch-hitter. The Angels lost the second game, by one run, and Napoli went 3-for-3 with a walk, a double, and two homers. The loss pushed the Angels one decision from playoff elimination, and Napoli’s big game capped off a big season against his former employer.

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Updating Tie Scenarios, AL Wild Card and Beyond

It was a rough week for Team Entropy, as sweeps by the Orioles and Athletics knocked out most of the larger snafus the Rays and Angels could have caused over the final three games:

There’s still room for a three-way tie between the Athletics, Rays and Angels, though, and the AL East, AL West and NL Wild Card could also see tied finishes as the year comes to a close.

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Revisiting Last Year’s Free-Agent Signings

Before all our attention is focused on the post-season, I thought I’s take a quick look back at free agent signings from the past year and how those deals worked out in 2012. The focus here is just on what teams got for their money. In other words: Did the players meet or exceed the expected value of the contracts they signed?

I focused on major league signings only, so the analysis does not include myriad minor league deals — many of which resulted in players accumulating playing time in the majors this year.

To get a sense of the how the deals turned out, I compared players’ expected values — which are based on their positions and the annual average value (AAV) of their contracts — to their actual values. I uses Matt Swartz’s research on the differences in dollars per Wins Above Replacement (WAR) by position, rather than assume an average dollar-per-WAR, as is typically done.

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Cespedes Not Missing

While many baseball players are not able to live up to the expectations created before they arrive in the big leagues, Yoenis Cespedes has lived up to and probably has exceeded the expectations created around him. When he first started seeing major league pitching in spring training, some baseball experts expected that he may have problems with plate discipline. Cespedes has answered the critics by making more contact with non-fastballs.

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Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 10/1/12