Archive for November, 2012

Effectively Wild Episode 88: Wil Myers, the Royals, and Rumors About Trading Top Prospects

Ben and Sam discuss what we can learn from the rumors that Royals prospect Wil Myers is available via trade.


Q&A: Bruce Walton, Blue Jays Pitching Coach

Bruce Walton understands the Toronto Blue Jays pitching staff as well as anyone. This season was his 16th in the organization and 11th with the big-league club. He served as bullpen coach from 2002-2009 and has been the pitching coach since 2010.

It wasn’t an easy year for the 49-year-old former A’s, Expos and Rockies right-hander. Multiple members of the Jays’ staff went down with injuries, while others — most notably Ricky Romero — struggled. Walton saw his hurlers issue the most walks in the American League and finish with the fourth-worst ERA.

The revamped Torontonians are expected to compete for a pennant next season, but in order for that to happen, the pitchers will need to be healthier and more productive. Part of that responsibility — assuming new manager John Gibbons retains him — will fall on Walton, who talked pitching on a visit to Fenway Park this summer.

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David Laurila: How do pitchers get big-league hitters out?

Bruce Walton: I think it’s a combination of things. The first thing you really have to learn is where down is — where down in the strike zone actually is. Pounding down and pitching at the knees is your best friend. If you stay down with all of your pitches, it’s much easier to get guys out.

DL: Can working up in the zone be effective?

BW: I don’t know if the high strike is where you want to pitch. I think above the strike zone is where you want to pitch when you’re up. Since I’ve been in the big leagues, the high strike is around the belt, and belt-high is a dangerous place.

DL: Is the strike zone too small?

BW: No, it’s not too small. When you’re talking about a small strike zone, it’s more about whether you can manipulate the strike zone by being more efficient, as far as more quality pitches on the edges. The strike zone is the strike zone. It’s neither too small, nor too big.

DL: How does Ricky Romero get guys out?

BW: Ricky gets guys out by working back and forth in the zone, and with late movement. He relies on very good movement at the last possible moment before the ball hits the bat. He’s got tremendous sink and he’s got tremendous cut. He also has the ability to work back and forth in the zone with his changeup.

DL: What is the issue when he’s not getting guys out? Read the rest of this entry »


The 2013 Hardball Times Baseball Annual

The Hardball Times Baseball Annual for 2013 is now yours for the purchasing. This is something we do every year, just for the heck of it. In fact, this is our ninth THT Annual, and we’re trying a few new things this year.

First of all, we went the self-publishing route. We always had a great relationship with our previous publisher, ACTA Sports, but it’s so easy to self-publish, and the economics are better (we think). So you’ll notice that our cover art has changed, and we won’t be available in bookstores. The price is lower, and the dimensions are a bit smaller, too. We’ll let you know how it goes.

The Annual is now 6″x9″—easy to carry and read. We dropped the stats altogether after significantly cutting them back last year. As time went on, the stats became a less important feature of the Annual, because it’s so easy to pick up your stats online at any time. Other than that, the format is exactly the same.

You’re left with 300 pages of baseball eloquence, primarily contributed by THT and Fangraphs writers, as well as a few special guest writers. Here is the specific table of contents:

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The 2012 Season In Low Home Runs

I suppose this doesn’t really need much of an introduction. The season is over, and we have all the data. I’m particularly interested in things that happened at the extremes. At the end of September, I wrote up The 2012 Season In Inside Home Runs. That showed the most inside pitches that were hit for home runs. A week ago, I wrote up The 2012 Season In Outside Home Runs. That showed the most outside pitches that were hit for home runs. Now I’m going to show the lowest pitches that were hit for home runs. I bet you can’t guess what comes next in the series!

The thing about all of these pitches, incidentally, is that they were balls. They were really actually strikes — home runs are strikes — but they were destined to be balls, perhaps even intended to be balls, until the batters swung at them and hit them for dingers. Plate discipline is hard to teach for a number of reasons, I’m sure. Any sort of teaching is hard. But one of the reasons is probably that professional hitters are very confident, and not all swings at balls turn out bad. Sometimes they turn out good, allowing one to believe they might always turn out good. “I can punish anything even close to the plate,” one might believe. “I can punish anything even if it isn’t close to the plate at all,” the #1 hitter on this list definitely believes.

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On Chone Figgins and His Player Type

Following is a very basic list of things we know to be true about Chone Figgins:

  • He used to be very successful at baseball
  • Lately he has been far less successful at baseball
  • Tuesday night he was finally dropped by the Mariners
  • Relative to other players, he is little

There’s a lot more to Chone Figgins than that — there’s a lot more to everybody than that — but that’s the skeleton. If you were putting your son to sleep, and you were telling him about various baseball players, and the first one you told him about was Chone Figgins, you’d go into more detail. If you were putting your son to sleep, and you were telling him about various baseball players, and the ninetieth one you told him about was Chone Figgins, you’d skip a lot of the details out of exasperation. Those are the most fundamental details.

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Red Sox Replace Carl Crawford with Polar Opposite

After years of having Manny Ramirez and then Jason Bay patrol left field in front of the Green Monster, the Red Sox made a dramatic change in course in 2011 by bringing in Carl Crawford. Instead of using the position to get another bat-first, hide-the-women-and-children defender into the line-up, the Sox opted for speed and defense instead. Crawford, of course, was a disaster, and the Red Sox took advantage of an opportunity to rid themselves of the remainder of his contract by shipping him to Los Angeles in August.

With their new found savings creating a hole in left field, the Red Sox have reportedly decided to go back to the old left field plan, and are nearing a two year contract with right handed slugger Jonny Gomes. Given that they already re-signed David Ortiz, DH is not open in Boston, so Gomes’ playing time is going to have to come in left field. And that makes this signing pretty interesting.

Because he spent 2009-2011 in the National League — 2 1/2 years with the Reds, half a season as a National — he’s played a decent amount of outfield during his career. However, he’s never been a regular OF in the American League, because AL teams have the ability to DH guys like Gomes, and both of his previous AL employers have taken advantage of that option.

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Pitcher Study: Jason Hammel

When healthy, Jason Hammel was the Orioles’ clear ace in 2012. The 29-year-old added a power sinker to his classic fastball-curveball-slider arsenal. The addition became a career year — Hammel recorded a 3.43 ERA and a 3.29 FIP. The Orioles’ ability to withstand getting just 20 starts from Hammel ranks among the greatest mysteries in a mystery filled season.

To take a look at just how Hammel used his new repertoire to improve last season, let’s take a look at his magnum opus: a complete game, one-hit shutout against the Braves on June 16th.

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FanGraphs Chat – 12/21/12


The Royals, Billy Butler, and Young Pitching

The Royals have been one of baseball’s most active teams so far this offseason, first swinging a trade for Ervin Santana before re-signing Jeremy Guthrie. GM Dayton Moore has made no secret of his desire to improve a starting rotation that finished 26th in ERA (5.01), 25th in FIP (4.59), and 28th in innings (890.0) this season, and reports indicate that he’s willing to deal one of his young position players for a young, high-end arm. Alex Gordon, Mike Moustakas, and even Eric Hosmer have been floated as trade candidates, ditto Billy Butler.

Butler, 26, is a .300/.362/.468 (121 wRC+) career hitter in over 3,500 big league plate appearances. He enjoyed the best season of his career in 2012, hitting .313/.373/.510 (140 wRC+) with a career-high 29 homers and 3.2 WAR. That earned him his first All-Star Game nod and Silver Slugger. Butler’s biggest negative as a hitter is his propensity to hit the ball on the ground (career 47.2%), which has limited his power output (career .168 ISO) and makes him the mother of all double play candidates — he’s bounced into a twin-killing in 18% of his career opportunities, well-above the 11% MLB average.

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Jason Heyward as Mike Trout

Just a couple years ago, it was Jason Heyward and Giancarlo Stanton that were tearing up baseball, looking like an unprecedented pair of rookie talents ready to continue on into the stratosphere together. Now, just two years later, we’ve got Mike Trout and Bryce Harper one-upping them. That’s just how it goes.

With an injury (and a team deflation) taking some of the wind out of Stanton’s sails, and Buster Posey blowing up the National League Most Valuable Player debate, the new toys got a lot more attention than the old new ones. Perhaps rightfully so. But a lot of the value Heyward accumulated last season he did in a fashion that might seem… Troutian.

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