Why isn’t there more interest in Michael Bourn? A six-win center fielder is on the market, and our most recent article on the subject is whether or not his agent has waited too long to get him a deal. We don’t know what his asking price is, but the idea that a player coming off a career year and four straight seasons with more than four wins now needs a pillow contract seems to suggest that either there’s a reason to doubt Bourn’s work, or there’s a lack of demand for his services in the market place.

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Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections, which have typically appeared in the pages of Baseball Think Factory, are being released at FanGraphs this year. Below are the projections for the NL East champion Washington Nationals. Szymborski can be found on Twitter at @DSzymborski

Other 2013 Projections: Athletics / Giants..

Batters
The most interesting projection for the Nationals is probably Bryce Harper’s because one of the most interesting projections in all baseball is probably Bryce Harper’s. ZiPS forecasts Harper to approximate his Rookie of the Year campaign, when he posted a 4.9 WAR. Certain readers might consider said forecast pessimistic, given that Harper will be a year more experienced and a year closer to his peak in 2013. Still, he (i.e. Harper) is projected to be the best field player on a strong team as a 20-year-old.

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Kevin Towers is smarter than the so-called experts. That isn’t meant sarcastically. The Arizona Diamondbacks’ GM knows what he’s doing, and has both the background and track record to prove it. Skeptics panning his recent moves don’t have his 16 years of experience as a big-league general manager, nor have they been a minor-league pitching coach or scouting director.

Why did Towers trade highly-regarded pitching prospect Trevor Bauer for a young shortstop many feel has a limited offensive ceiling? He has addressed that question myriad times, but a truer understanding goes beyond the specifics of any individual deal. It lays in his overall philosophy, which he discussed shortly before taking time off for the holidays.

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Nick Swisher is a talented, big-money veteran with an actress wife, and he likes to generate attention and play under the bright lights of a major media market. The Cleveland Indians play in Cleveland, and they just lost 94 games, and last year their Opening Day payroll was under $70 million. On paper, Swisher and the Indians aren’t much of a fit, but that didn’t stop Swisher from signing a four-year contract with the Indians worth $56 million. A fifth-year vesting option would increase the value to $70 million. Few saw Cleveland being Swisher’s eventual destination, but recently the Indians put on the full-court press, and they were able to twist Swisher’s arm.

One thing that’s unclear is the nature of Swisher’s free-agent market. Publicly, there wasn’t much of a sweepstakes, so Swisher might not have had many alternatives. But this can be sold as Swisher opting to go home, since he was born in Columbus, went to high school in West Virginia, and went to college at Ohio State. To the average person, going to Cleveland would hold a certain amount of appeal; to Swisher, going to Cleveland would hold a higher amount of appeal, presumably. So there’s that angle at play.

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Joel Hanrahan is a great closer, no matter what happened in the second half last season. He’ll help the Red Sox, which had some issues in the bullpen last season. But “The Hammer” — who once came to the Pirates at the cost of Sean Burnett and Nyjer Morgan — will also help his former team on his way out.

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The Dodgers will trot out a formidable wave of big league talent to take on the National League West in 2013 but the strength of the major league club comes at the expense of the minor league system. The organization has flipped its home-grown talent to acquire the likes of Adrian Gonzalez, Carl Crawford, and Hanley Ramirez. The new draft and international free agent rules will affect LA’s ability to over-pay for amateur talent but the club showed the ability to work within the new guidelines and had a solid 2012 amateur draft.

#1 Zach Lee (P)

Lee, 21, is an athletic pitcher who’s still learning to channel his raw skills to the mound and he doesn’t dominate as much as expected. The right-handed Texan split 2012 between high-A and double-A pitching a total of 121 innings.

He walked just 32 batters, displaying above-average control for his age, but also struck out just 103 batters because his secondary stuff – curveball, slider, changeup – has yet to fully develop. He offsets his lack of Ks with above-average ground ball numbers. A former star high school quarterback, Lee has moved quickly through the system and may need to spend all of 2013 in double-A before his ticket to L.A. is punched. Read the rest of this entry »

Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of Daily Notes.

1. Table: How 2012’s Best Relievers Were Acquired
2. Of Note: Evan Gattis’s Past Week in Venezuela
3. SCOUT Leaderboards: Venezuelan Winter League

Table: How 2012’s Best Relievers Were Acquired
On Sunday, the Boston Red Sox agreed to send youngish corner-type Jerry Sands, right-handed prospect Stolmy Pimentel, and (likely) two others to Pittsburgh in exchange for closer Joel Hanrahan and (likely) one other. It represents the third not-insubstantial trade — after last year’s deals for Andrew Bailey (which required conceding Josh Reddick and Miles Head) and Mark Melancon (which cost them Jed Lowrie and Kyle Weiland) — the third not-insubstantial trade the Red Sox have conducted over the last two seasons in search of quality, high-leverage relief.

It raises the question, of course: are quality, high-leverage relievers generally acquired by means of trade? And, if not by trade, then how are they acquired?

Below is a (sortable) table of 2012’s best relief pitchers, as measured by the differential between shutdowns (SD) and meltdowns (MD). For each pitcher, I’ve included how he was acquired by the team with which he concluded the 2012 season — either by draft (DR), free agency (FA), trade (TR), or waivers (WV).

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The Diamondbacks signed Jason Kubel last offseason and created an outfield logjam with Chris Young, Justin Upton and Gerardo Parra.

While the consensus had the team attempting to trade Parra following Kubel’s signing, the Diamondbacks stood pat and attempted to use everyone effectively. Top prospect Adam Eaton then knocked down the door to the majors at the end of the season, put up solid numbers across 103 major league plate appearances, and appeared to be the odds-on favorite for the starting centerfield gig.

Chris Young was dealt to the Athletics to make room for Eaton but the Diamondbacks were right back at square one. They had four starting outfielders for three spots and clear needs elsewhere that could get fixed through a trade. Regardless, it seemed like they stopped looking at free agent outfielders and were focused on subtracting from the group, whether it was a mega-deal involving Upton or a smaller deal for one of Kubel or Parra.

Kevin Towers and Co., defied these expectations over the weekend by signing Cody Ross to a three-year, $26 million contract. The move instantly put Kubel and Parra back on the trading block as there is simply no way the Diamondbacks enter the season with even more of a starting outfield surplus than last year. However, signing Ross was a questionable decision because he and Kubel have been similarly valuable players over the last couple of seasons. They essentially already had another form of Ross on the roster and it’s unclear if the team will be able to extract full value in a subsequent Kubel trade now that it very clearly has to move one of its outfielders.

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Chris Reed isn’t your typical top-rated prospect. Born in London, England, he has a record of just 1-9 since the Los Angeles Dodgers drafted him 16th overall in 2011. A closer in his junior year at Stanford, the 22-year-old southpaw transitioned to a starting role this season with High-A Rancho Cucamonga and Double-A Chattanooga. Limited to 77 innings, Reed proceeded to make 11 relief appearances in the Arizona Fall League.

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David Laurila: Why did the Dodgers send you to the Arizona Fall League?

Chris Reed: I actually asked them if I could play winter ball. There were a couple of reasons. One was to throw a few more innings, since my innings count was low. The other was to work on my secondary pitches. Those would be my slider, which I lost about halfway through the year — in Chattanooga — and also my changeup. It’s important to have three pitches as a starter.

DL: How did you end up throwing fewer innings than planned?

CR: It was basically the setback I had in May. That’s what started it, and maybe I just came out of the gate a little too hot. I wasn’t used to [starting] and was throwing too much in between starts. Because of that, they wanted to take things cautious and make sure I made the necessary adjustments to pro ball. From there, it was a decision by upper management to leave me at three innings. I was going to build up from there, but then I experienced some blisters.

DL: Was the setback basically a dead arm?

CR: It was some shoulder soreness. It wasn’t serious, but it was enough to skip a few starts and make them cautious about my transition. My shoulder is fine. There are no lingering problems.

DL: Why did you lose the feel for your slider?

CR: Right before the Future’s Game. I had a start in Chattanooga and it was about 100 degrees with 100% humidity. Read the rest of this entry »

A Golden rule of developing prospects is, “Never move a player off a more valuable defensive position until he proves incapable of playing there at the Major League Level.” This leaves the Texas Rangers in an enviable, but difficult position as they have a 10 win left-side of the infield and both the best third base and shortstop prospects in baseball.

Jurickson Profar is untouchable, but Mike Olt has been discussed in a number of trade rumors. first, he was rumored to the Braves for shortstop Andrelton Simmons. More recently, Olt’s name was thrown as a key piece in a package for Cy Young winner R.A. Dickey. This leaves me questioning if the Rangers are working to sell high on the former UConn Husky. Read the rest of this entry »