Archive for December, 2012

Angels Clear Logjam, Land Jason Vargas

The acquisition of Josh Hamilton gave the Angels what they wanted, but it also left the Angels with a little problem: between Peter Bourjos, Mark Trumbo, and Kendrys Morales, they had too many good players for too few spots. This was, as they say, a nice problem to have, and the Angels also felt they had a need for another innings-eating starting pitcher. So in a move surprising only because it went down between two teams in the same division, the Angels and Mariners have exchanged Morales and Jason Vargas, straight up. With one move, the Angels solved two perceived problems.

The whole trade is simple. It’s easy to understand, like an example transaction in Trading 101. The Angels had too many bats and too few starting pitchers, so they traded a bat for a starting pitcher. The Mariners wanted a bat more than they wanted to keep one of their starting pitchers. Morales didn’t fit in one place and he does fit in the other. Morales has one year left until free agency, and he’s projected to make just under $5 million. Vargas has one year left until free agency, too, and he’s projected to make just over $7 million. There are no prospects, no cash considerations, no players to be named later. Few transactions are this uncomplicated.

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Mariners Have Many Options, Little Impact

There’s no denying the Seattle Mariners have a number of infield options on the farm primed to push incumbents at the major-league level in the next year or two. In 2012, Brad Miller, Nick Franklin and Stefen Romero left strong impressions in Double-A. And while I don’t question the three as future big leaguers, are they true upgrades over what’s already in Seattle? Read the rest of this entry »


On Running, With Mike Trout and Jesus Montero

Prior to the 2012 regular season, Mike Trout and Jesus Montero would’ve been considered leading contenders for the American League Rookie of the Year Award. Both Trout and Montero were top prospects, and Trout was staring at some regular outfield playing time while Montero was looking to catch and hit designatedly in Seattle. Trout eventually won the award, turning in an all-time great season. Montero did not win the award, and his season, while not disastrous, was closer to being a disaster than to being magnificent. Trout didn’t beat out Montero because of his baserunning — he beat out Montero because of everything — but, my goodness, the baserunning. The differences in baserunning.

Baserunning is sort of WAR’s forgotten component. For position players, obviously, everybody’s aware of offense, and everybody’s aware of defensive position. The big controversy surrounds the defensive measurement, and UZR is why some people don’t pick up what WAR is putting down. WAR also includes baserunning, and most people don’t talk about it. It’s just there, making a small difference, or no difference. How important could baserunning be?

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What Are Mutual Options, Anyway?

Several years ago, my colleague Mike Axisa, writing for MLB Trade Rumors, noticed a trend. Teams and players had started to use “mutual options” in contracts, in the place of a player option or team option.

Previously, options generally worked one of two ways: With a player option, it’s in the player’s sole discretion whether to stay with the team for the option year at the option price. If the player walks away, he becomes a free agent. With a team option, it’s in the club’s sole discretion whether to keep the player for the option year. If the team exercises the option, the player stays with the team for the option year at the agreed-upon salary. Unless the player has a no-trade clause, the team can trade him once the option is exercised. That’s exactly what the Rays just did with James Shields. If the club declines the  option, then it typically pays the player a certain sum of money, called the buyout.

So what is a mutual option and why is it used?

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My Theoretical Hall of Fame Ballot

Last year, FanGraphs was accepted into the BBWAA as an approved organization, and at present, we have four writers on staff who are members of the organization: David Laurila, Eno Sarris, Carson Cistulli and me. Once we’ve each been in the organization for 10 years, we will receive the right to vote for the Hall of Fame. So, in nine years, I might be publishing a Hall of Fame ballot. But, for now, I’ll run down who I’d vote for if I had a ballot.

We’ll do it in descending order of confidence in the pick, ranging from the easiest calls down to the toughest.

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Astros Take On Jose Veras Experiment

Jose Veras spent last season as a reliever for the Milwaukee Brewers, but in retrospect he was also something more: a year-long experiment on the value of those relievers a fan observes day-in and day-out. On the whole, the newest member of the Astros’ bullpen was decent in Milwaukee — he posted a 92 ERA- and a 92 FIP- as well as a sharp 1.39 WPA — but I wager he will not be remembered as such.

Why? Inconsistency.

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On the Nationals’ Interest in Adam LaRoche

After having his 2011 season ruined by injury, Adam LaRoche had a nice comeback in 2012. He hit .271/.343/.510 (127 wRC+), including a career-high 33 home runs on the way to the postseason with Washington. The Nationals and LaRoche had a mutual option for 2013, but LaRoche turned down his side of it and opted for free agency as he entered his age-33 season.

LaRoche is reportedly looking for a three-year contract similar to the one Mike Napoli received from Boston, while the Nationals are said to be willing to offer only two years and $25 million. LaRoche is apparently talking to the Orioles, too. LaRoche had a nice year, but it is worth asking (assuming the Nationals are being serious in their pursuit of LaRoche) why Washington is bidding on LaRoche, given that they already have Michael Morse signed for 2013 at a considerably lower price.

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Brad Lidge’s Memorable Moment

If we were to sit down and create a list of the five most memorable baseball moments of the 21st century, the home run Albert Pujols hit off Brad Lidge in Game Three Five of the 2005 NLCS would be on it. It’s not even a question of if it would be on the list, but where. Baseball has a way of making your jaw drop — think David Freese, Aaron Boone, Bill Buckner — and that homer certainly qualifies. The crowd going dead silent in an instant, Andy Pettitte saying “oh my gosh,” the thud of the ball off the window … we remember it like it was yesterday.

Fair or not, that homer is the first thing that jumps to everyone’s mind when they think of Lidge. He was arguably the most dominant relief pitcher in baseball at the time, pitching to a 2.10 ERA (2.44 FIP) with 14.15 K/9 (39.4 K%) in 165.1 innings from 2004-2005. His 157 strikeouts in 2004 were the most by a pitcher who pitched exclusively in relief since Mark Eichhorn struck out 166 batters in 1986. Eichhorn did it in 157 innings. Lidge did it in 94.2. Carlos Marmol is the only pitcher to come within 25 strikeouts of Lidge’s total since 2004 (138 in 2010).

Earlier this month, Lidge quietly announced his retirement from baseball following a career that spanned parts of eleven seasons. He ranks 37th on the all-time saves list with 225, sandwiched right between Hoyt Wilhelm and Gene Garber. At some point next year Huston Street will pass him, then J.J. Putz will pass him the year after. Lidge is third on the Astros all-time saves list behind Billy Wagner and Dave Smith, and fourth on the Phillies all-time saves list behind Jose Mesa, Steve Bedrosian, and Mitch Williams. His place among history’s greatest closers won’t get him remembered, but that homer will.

Personally, there are three things about Lidge that stick out to me. First, it’s that utterly insane 2004 effort. Craig Kimbrel just had a season for the ages, but in 2004 Lidge pitched to level that wasn’t too far below Kimbrel’s while throwing 51% more innings in much less pitcher-friendly era. Secondly, it’s the strikeouts. Among pitchers who have thrown at least 600 career innings, a list that is 1,741 players deep, Lidge’s 11.92 K/9 and 30.9 K% are tops among right-handers and second overall to Wagner. During the PITCHf/x era, batters whiffed at his slider with more than 45% of their swings. That doesn’t even include his peak 2004-2005 seasons.

Third, it’s how that homer by Pujols supposedly screwed him up. Lidge allowed runs in two of his next three postseason outings that year after allowing runs in two of his first 13 playoff games. He pitched to a 5.28 ERA and 3.79 FIP the following season, which was wildly out of line with his career norms, and was demoted out of the closer’s role. Pujols had broken him, as the story goes. A year later he was traded to the Phillies for a package headlined by Michael Bourn only to have a brilliant 2008 campaign (1.95 ERA and 2.41 FIP) that resulted in a World Championship. If the Pujols homer is the first mental image you see when you think of Lidge, this is probably second.

Lidge, who turns 36 this weekend, was never really the same after that 2008 season, though there was no jaw-dropping moment to build a narrative around. He was relatively young but his arm was not — throwing slider after slider in 65+ appearances year after year takes a toll on a pitcher physically. Very few guys are built to throw 50%+ sliders over the long haul. Injuries were starting to pop up, his command was starting to slip, all sorts of perfectly normal age-relate things started to set in. Lidge was broken for good this time, but not because of Pujols.

Fittingly, Lidge’s final act as a Major Leaguer was a strikeout. He unceremoniously whiffed Freddy Garcia in extra innings of an interleague game against the Yankees this summer after allowing the go-ahead runs to score. Washington designated him for assignment a day later and no team picked him for the remainder of the season. Lidge retires with 799 strikeouts, 225 saves, several seasons as one of baseball’s most dominant relievers, a handful of Cy Young and MVP votes, and one really bad pitch that he’d like to have back. Despite a great career, he’ll always be remembered for being on the wrong end of one of baseball’s most memorable moments.


Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 12/19/12


Reports From Instructs: Toronto Blue Jays (Pt 4)

For the next installment in the instructs series, I’ll run down some thoughts on the two top hitters I saw (and quick notes on one pitcher). Keep in mind as I’ve mentioned before that these are limited looks with no more than a game or two look and no batting practice, so this doesn’t constitute a full standard scouting report from a multi-game look during the minor league season.

While I saw what amounted to basically one game of Wuilmer Becerra, he seems like the most relevant prospect to lead the article off with since he was included in the R.A. Dickey deal just a few days ago. Becerra is a real prospect in his own right, signing for $1.3 million on July 2nd, 2011 and that means youth is still on his side, as he turned 18 during instructs this year. His minor league debut was cut short after 36 plate appearances in the GCL this season after he broke his jaw from an errant in-game fastball.

Becerra has a long frame, listed at 6’4, 190 but he isn’t the typical super-slender projectable tools monsters of July 2, as there’s already some thickness to his frame and I wouldn’t be surprised if he is or will soon be well over 200 pounds. He runs well for his size and I didn’t get a great time but Becerra looked to be a below average runner, a far cry from when he had put up above average times in amateur workouts. His arm wasn’t overly impressive and my read was a left field profile, which is where he played exclusively in instructs.

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