2013 ZiPS Projections – Oakland Athletics

Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections, which have typically appeared in the pages of Baseball Think Factory, will be released at FanGraphs this year. Below is the second set of 2013’s projections — for the AL West champion Oakland Athletics. Don’t hesitate to leave notes regarding format/presentation in the comments section, as the author frequently has no idea what he’s doing.

Batters
With his offseason acquisition of outfielder Chris Young (for Cliff Pennington and a minor leaguer), GM Billy Beane has created a good kind of the problem for the A’s: four of the team’s five best field players, per ZiPS — and four of the five team’s field players projected to record a WAR above 2.0 — are outfielders. Coco Crisp and Young both have positive career UZRs in center field; Reddick has the same in right. All three have pretty large sample sizes at their respective positions. Yoenis Cespedes has neither decent fielding numbers nor a sample that requires us to weight said numbers heavily. Still, based on the defensive reputations of all four players, it wouldn’t be shocking to see a lineup with Cespedes at DH and the other three playing the outfield.

Outside of that quadrumvirate — and newly signed Japanese shortstop Hiroyuki Nakajima (about whom Jeff Sullivan recently made some shockingly intelligent comments) — ZiPS sees mostly pieces, but little impact.

Pitchers
Brett Anderson’s health is important to Oakland’s success next year, likely — and the lack of it over the last two-plus seasons is what has produced here a rather conservative projection for Anderson’s 2013. After him, there’s considerable youth. Jarrod Parker, Tommy Milone, A.J. Griffin, and Dan Straily: together, they have 88 career starts. The first three, however, all posted FIP-minuses of 100 or lower in a starting role last season.

Despite the fact that he’s pitched professionally for all of one season (after converting from first base) and now has more major-league innings (47.1) than minor-league ones (26.0), it might not be entirely ridiculous to suggest that left-hander Sean Doolittle is the best relief pitcher on the A’s right now. He posted a 73 xFIP- and 1.6 WAR in 2012, while posting similar strikeout/walk differentials against lefties and righties. ZiPS projects Doolittle to post both the team’s highest strikeout rate and lowest FIP.

Bench/Prospects
Acquired from Boston in the Andrew Bailey trade, Miles Head is a player about whose offensive potential Marc Hulet had some positive things to say this past April — and for whose defensive potential Hulet reserved less glowing remarks. The A’s moved him back to third base this season after he’d played mostly first in the Boston system. ZiPS is optimistic about him — although, after splitting his 2012 season between High- and Double-A, Head is likely to spend most of 2013 in the minors.

Depth Chart
Here’s a rough depth chart for the A’s, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player (click to embiggen):

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Credit to MLB Depth Charts for roster information.

Batters, Counting Stats

Batters, Rates and Averages

Batters, Assorted Other

Pitchers, Counting Stats

Pitchers, Rates and Averages

Pitchers, Assorted Other

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2012. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.09 ERA and the NL having a 3.92 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected WAR.

Dan Szymborski can be found on Twitter @DSzymborski.

Other 2013 Projections: Giants.