Archive for May, 2013

Getting Ready For the Amateur Draft, Part 1

Major League Baseball will kick off its amateur draft on Thursday, June 6. MLB Network and MLB.com will cover the draft live starting at 7:00 p.m. EDT. The pick-by-pick coverage will include the First Round, Competitive Balance Round A, Second Round, and Competitive Balance Round B — 73 picks in total.  The remainder of the draft will take place on June 7 and 8.

We will get you ready for the amateur draft — also known as the Rule-4 draft — with two posts. Today in Part 1, we’ll provide a refresher on the new rules put in place in the most recent MLB-MLBPA collective bargaining agreement. We’ll then show how those rules were applied in coming up with this year’s draft selection order.

In Part 2, we’ll explain the bonus slots for each selection, the total bonus pools for each team, and look back at bit at how spending has changed in the last five years.

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The Fringe Five: Baseball’s Most Compelling Fringe Prospects

The Fringe Five is a weekly exercise (introduced last month) wherein the author utilizes regressed stats, scouting reports, and also his own heart to identify and/or continue monitoring the most compelling fringe prospects in all of baseball.

Central to this exercise, of course, is a working definition of fringe. Currently, for the purposes of this column, it’s any prospect who was absent from all of three notable preseason top-100 prospect lists. (A slightly more robust meditation on the idea of fringe can be found here.)

Four players retain their place this week among the Five: Mets infield prospect Wilmer Flores; giant, tall Marlins left-hander Brian Flynn; other Mets prospect, right-hander Rafael Montero; and Cardinals Double-A outfielder Mike O’Neill.

Departing from the Five is Yankees right-hander Jose Ramirez, who did nothing in particular to lose his spot except fail to approximate the conspicuous capital-M Mystery provided by recently demoted San Diego prospect Burch Smith.

All those points having been made, here are this week’s Fringe Five.

Wilmer Flores, 2B/3B, New York NL (Profile)
The ongoing struggles of Mets major-league first baseman Ike Davis have led to questions about what Flores’ credentials might be at that same position. With regard to those concerns, it ought first to be noted that, despite his promising offensive approach, Flores is likely not even an average major-league hitter at the moment. It ought further to be noted both that (a) including Tuesday, Flores has played first base just twice this season but also that (b) he (i.e. Flores) is still probably reasonably capable there defensively.

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On Framing and Pitching in the Zone

One of the most interesting fields of study in baseball over the last few years has been that of pitch-framing, or pitch-receiving, or pitch-stealing, or whatever you want to call it. This is the stuff that’s made Jose Molina nerd-famous, and it’s drawing more attention with every passing month. Framing has been discussed on ESPN. It’s been discussed on MLB Network. It’s been the subject of countless player interviews, and what’s been revealed is that a great amount of thought and technique goes into how a catcher catches a pitch. Catchers don’t just catch the baseball. They catch the baseball with a purpose.

Research has uncovered a few outliers, like Molina and Jonathan Lucroy and, say, Jesus Montero and Ryan Doumit in the other direction. It’s interesting these guys can be given such different strike zones, since the strike zone is supposed to be consistent for everybody. And it’s interesting that, as much as people come up with run values in the dozens, it’s hard to identify the actual effect. For example, Rays pitchers this year have allowed a higher OPS throwing to Molina than when throwing to Jose Lobaton, the other guy. Last year, Molina again had the worst numbers. It reminds me too much of Catcher ERA for my tastes, but you’d think you’d see something. Instead, you see little. Where is the value going?

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Effectively Wild Episode 212: Doing Away with Errors/Rotating Positions/What Would Retired Players Hit?/Aesthetically Pleasing Players/3-0 Red Lights

Ben and Sam answer listener emails about errors, ancient players, whether hitters should swing more often on 3-0, and more.


FanGraphs After Dark Chat – 5/28/13

6:09
Carson Cistulli: Paul Swydan has bullied me into posting this notice for the After Dark Chat, which will — according to inveterate bully Paul Swydan — begin at ca. 9pm ET.

If history is any indication, some combination of Chris Cwik and Jeff Zimmerman will be involved.

If history is any other sort of indication, the hosts of this chat will answer your — yes YOUR — questions.

7:39
Paul Swydan: Hi everybody! Sorry, I left the house earlier this evening without posting the chat. Many, many thanks to Carson for being so kind. Say something nice about Carson in the comments.

Unfortunately, Chris and Jeff are out of commission for awhile, so I’m flying solo tonight. Keep the questions coming, and I’ll see you soon!

8:53
Comment From Hitler But Sadder
I have cleared my schedule for this.

8:53
Paul Swydan: I have too. And since it’s just me, let’s start this thang early.

8:53
Comment From Mr. Ca$hman
Thoughts on Michael Brantley ROS?

8:55
Paul Swydan: I don’t really think Brantley is doing much different in a positive way. He’s hitting far more ground balls, which may be responsible for the uptick in his BABIP. Now, there’s a chance that that is sustainable, but given his past rates I’d expect it to come down some. His BB/K is also way down, which isn’t a positive marker.

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Didi Gregorius vs. Derek Jeter, Importantly

Last offseason, the Diamondbacks participated in a three-way trade that brought them shortstop Didi Gregorius, and that cost them Trevor Bauer. Other pieces were involved, but we’re not going to talk about them here. Arizona drew some criticism, as people weren’t sure Gregorius would stick as a regular shortstop, but general manager Kevin Towers saw to it to compare Gregorius to a young Derek Jeter:

“When I saw him, he reminded me of a young Derek Jeter,” Towers said.

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Will Ian Kennedy Be The Odd Man Out In Arizona?

Ian Kennedy cut his finger recently while washing dishes. As a result, Tyler Skaggs got the start in the early game of Monday’s Memorial Day twinbill against the Rangers, and he acquitted himself quite well. The start threw into sharp relief just how necessary Kennedy is to the Dbacks plans, both current and future. As we move further away from his breakout season, it is fair to wonder — is Kennedy about to be the odd man out in the Arizona rotation?

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Austin Wilson Is Not Only All About Tools

Watch Austin Wilson do anything on the field and you’re struck by his athleticism. Six-foot-five, 244 pounds of muscle, he glides across center field in the Sunken Diamond on defense. During batting practice, no bat makes a more satisfying sound than his.

But with parents that hold multiple degrees from MIT, Harvard and Stanford, obviously the Stanford center fielder is more than a collection of high-end body parts. In fact, his makeup could go a long way toward smoothing out the wrinkles in his game as he proceeds to the professional leagues. It has already helped.

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When Stars And Scrubs Doesn’t Work

The Milwaukee Brewers have two of the top ten players in WAR, and neither of them is named Ryan Braun. Carlos Gomez (+3.2 WAR, #1) and Jean Segura (+2.5 WAR, #9) have been revelations for the Brewers, while Braun has been his usual dominant self, putting up +1.9 WAR with his usual brand of excellence. Toss in a strong performance from the underrated Norichika Aoki and 78 terrific plate appearances from the occasionally healthy Aramis Ramirez, and the top end of the Brewers line-up has been as good as any in baseball. For context, here is the total combined line for Gomes, Segura, Braun, Aoki, and Ramirez:

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Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 5/28/13

9:00
Jeff Sullivan: Whoa. Is this chat going to start on time?

9:01
Jeff Sullivan: Sort of! Let’s do it!

9:01
Comment From Jack
Do you know anything about the NF (nasty factor) measurement of each pitch on MLB Gameday screen? I presume it is some combination of velocity, location and movement. Is this something worth keeping an eye on when trying to judge a pitcher’s performance? If so, can we get it tracked on Fangraphs?

9:01
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t know if they’ve changed NF over the years since it was introduced, but when it was newer, I remember Matthew Carruth did some investigation and he found it was basically worthless.

9:02
Jeff Sullivan: It’s a neat idea, but pitching is too complicated and pitch effectiveness relies too much on the pitches before and the pitches after. And PITCHf/x doesn’t know anything about deception. So their heart is in the right place, but this isn’t a stat to look at.

9:03
Comment From JFK
Julio Urias from LA , top of the rotation projection?

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