FanGraphs After Dark Chat – 5/28/13

May 28, 2013

6:09

Carson Cistulli: Paul Swydan has bullied me into posting this notice for the After Dark Chat, which will — according to inveterate bully Paul Swydan — begin at ca. 9pm ET.

If history is any indication, some combination of Chris Cwik and Jeff Zimmerman will be involved.

If history is any other sort of indication, the hosts of this chat will answer your — yes YOUR — questions.

7:39

Paul Swydan: Hi everybody! Sorry, I left the house earlier this evening without posting the chat. Many, many thanks to Carson for being so kind. Say something nice about Carson in the comments.

Unfortunately, Chris and Jeff are out of commission for awhile, so I’m flying solo tonight. Keep the questions coming, and I’ll see you soon!

8:53	Comment From Hitler But Sadder I have cleared my schedule for this.

8:53	Paul Swydan: I have too. And since it’s just me, let’s start this thang early.

8:53	Comment From Mr. Ca$hman Thoughts on Michael Brantley ROS?

8:55

Paul Swydan: I don’t really think Brantley is doing much different in a positive way. He’s hitting far more ground balls, which may be responsible for the uptick in his BABIP. Now, there’s a chance that that is sustainable, but given his past rates I’d expect it to come down some. His BB/K is also way down, which isn’t a positive marker.

8:55	Comment From zurzles John Danks @CHN tomorrow?

8:56	Paul Swydan: Danks actually made his season debut on Friday, and acquitted himself fairly. Quality start – 6 ip, 3 r, 5 k, 0 bb. Of course, it was just against the Marlins, but given that he’s been out of action for a full season, not bad. I’d start him tomorrow, sure.

8:56	Comment From asdfasdf Who would you start at catcher in an OBP league: Santana or McCann? Or should I try to play the matchups day by day?

8:57	Paul Swydan: I would default to Carlos Santana for now.

8:57	Comment From Loosing sleep Trade my Hosmer/Wacha for Prado/VMart???

8:57	Paul Swydan: Depends. If it’s a keeper league, no, I’ll take the Wacha side. If just for this year and you need 3B help, I could see the other side.

8:57	Comment From Hugh Duffy Who do you like more in fantasy for the ROS: Jennings or Marte? Thanks

8:58	Paul Swydan: Marte. Unless the migraine stuff is debilitating for him. I’m just not that big on Desmond Jennings.

8:58	Comment From asdfasdf Is Luebke worth stashing still?

8:59	Paul Swydan: At this point, not unless it’s a long-term keeper league. In case you missed it, Luebke had his progress stalled again. Just another reason why the Padres should have been more aggressive in pursuing starting pitching this offseason. Their rotation is a graveyard.

8:59	Comment From Highway61 Does fangraphs have a player transaction history page? Like the history of who the Mets acquired for Carlos Gomez and then the Twins? If not, do you know of a good site that would have this info? Thanks.

9:00	Paul Swydan: We do not, unfortunately. Baseball-Reference player pages are what you want here. Just scroll to the bottom of any player page.

9:00	Comment From roto curious Expectations for Franklin ROS?

9:01

Paul Swydan: I picked him up right away in my daily league. Partly as a block against another team who has Kinsler on the DL, and partly because Alcides Escobar remembered that he can’t hit on my team (I was hoping he wouldn’t remember).

I’m cautiously optimistic. Seattle has had a hard time with prospects recently, but I’m hopeful with Franklin.

9:01	Comment From Jaack I lost a bet and had to watch Batman and Robin this weekend. I have been making non stop ice-related puns since then. What should I do?

9:02	Paul Swydan: You’ve got to get it all out of your system. Make them all, and make them all now. Don’t let it linger, or you’ll be making them before screenings of Oscar films, and your friends will start talking behind your back.

9:03

Comment From Guest
My roto team desperately needs SBs. I currently have Maybin/Reddick on the DL with McCutch, Choo, Pagan contributing to the SB category. Are any of these guys roster-worthy( Rajai Davis, Pedro Florimon, KAWASKI, Saunders, Pollock), and who should I cut (Uggla, Casher, Chris Young, James Loney, Brothers, Axford, Shaw)?

9:04	Paul Swydan: Davis and Saunders can be. Saunders more than Davis. As for the cut, it really depends on where you need the depth. It seems like you have enough OF depth that you could lose Chris Young, but I couldn’t say for sure.

9:04	Comment From Jaack What’s up with Toronto-Atlanta as a ‘natural’ interleague rivalry? Wouldn’t Boston-Atlanta at least make sense as far as these two teams used to play in the same town. Its not like Boston and Phily are naturally rivals either.

9:05	Paul Swydan: It’s one of many that doesn’t make sense. The worst though is San Diego-Seattle, who were deemed natural rivals because they share a spring training complex. Or maybe that was the other way around. Either way, it’s terrible.

9:05	Comment From Mark in Toronto Holy cucumbers Paul! You’re in a pickle doing this chat by yourself

9:06	Paul Swydan: Busytown Pickle Cars?

9:06	Comment From Vic Very nervous about Janssen after today’s “unavailable to pitch,” and “shoulder tenderness” comments along with recent bad performance. Someone just dropped Valverde. Do drop Janssen and spend a WW pick up for him? If I miss out on Valverde drop him for Pestano or Krod?

9:06	Paul Swydan: I’d feel less dirty picking up K-Rod than I would Valverde.

9:06	Comment From Metsamorphosis When do I start worrying about Heyward?

9:07	Paul Swydan: I guess it depends on your worry threshold. I’m not worried yet, but I probably will be in another month or so.

9:07	Comment From Metsamorphosis Is Hosmer worth a roster spot right now?

9:07	Paul Swydan: Not at all, no.

9:07	Comment From Pork Sale Josh Rutledge was dropped in my league. We roster 360 players. Is he worth adding? I have pitching depth and would be dropping Cingrani.

9:09	Paul Swydan: I would not drop Cingrani for Rutledge, no. I wrote about Rutledge on Friday: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/who-is-josh-rutledge/ And I just think he has some work to do to re-find the mojo from last year.

9:09	Comment From Big Toucan Just picked EJax up in my dynasty league after he was dropped by one particularly frustrated owner. When would you say it would be appropriate to begin starting him?

9:10	Paul Swydan: Right away, probably. The longer you wait, the more chances you have to miss the beginning of his turnaround. Which will come, I’m sure.

9:10	Comment From Dayton Moore Talking Head Alex Cobb — this good or about to return to “yeah, okay”

9:11	Paul Swydan: First, I love how this question was phrased. Brilliant.

9:12	Paul Swydan: Second, I think he could be close to this good. The funny thing is that he’s been very unlucky in terms of his HR/FB. So even if his K and BB numbers come back to earth, his HR numbers coming back to earth may mitigate that a little bit. I’m a believer.

9:12	Comment From Alex Anthopoulos Jays 12-9 since May 4, with Hutchison and Drabek on the way back to salvage some starting IP. Can we turn it around?

9:13	Paul Swydan: Well I don’t know that we should be counting on those two to save the rotation, but yes, no one ever said the Jays were going to go away, just that they have a tough road to hoe now.

9:13	Comment From Pinstripe Mafia Vidal Nuno get another start or two?

9:13	Paul Swydan: It seems likely that he’ll get another spot start or two, but it’s hard to peg that sort of thing down definitively.

9:13	Comment From Ozzie Put Alexei Ramirez on the bench for Nick Franklin?

9:13	Paul Swydan: I would, yes.

9:14	Comment From Guest How long can Dusty keep putting a .258 OBP in between Choo and Votto?

9:14	Paul Swydan: As long as blood is blue in his veins.

9:14	Comment From Cal Guy Better long term keeper, Springer or Myers?

9:15	Paul Swydan: Still Myers, but his slow start and Springer’s very hot start (.301/.418/.618 in Double-A) have narrowed the gap some.

9:15	Comment From Blockhead What do you like to look for at this point of the year on the FA market in shallow leagues? I need to drop a DL guy because I have too many now but everyone seems so meh

9:16

Paul Swydan: Well, obviously now is when I start looking for prospects. Wacha would be a great guy to pick up. Maybe Cingrani if someone dropped him when he went down.

Other than that, now is the time when I start taking a real hard look at second and third-tier guys who started slowly and were dropped. Have they turned it around? If so, you could find a nice overlooked guy on your wire.

9:16	Comment From Guest Cubs broadcast team cited Fangraphs’ leaderboards for BB rates?! (this is probably more of a commentary than a question)

9:16	Paul Swydan: I’m told this happens quite regularly.

9:17	Comment From Max Fisher Players What is your take on the rays stadium situation, seems like silverman might move the team if something doesnt give

9:18

Paul Swydan: I think that Sternberg and Silverman are experts at making money, which is how they bought the Rays in the first place, and if they want a new stadium that they should build it themselves. I’m sure if they offered to build the whole enchilada with their own money, they would find their local governments more amenable. As is, they’re probably out of luck unless New York wants a third team.

9:18	Comment From Chicago Mark What is wrong with Justin Morneau? He’s hitting for less power tan last year.

9:19	Paul Swydan: Oh, looks like Jeff will join us in a minute.

9:20	Paul Swydan: Getting back to Morneau, I don’t think anything is wrong with him per se. This is basically just who he is now. I’d be surprised if he was a full-time starter anywhere next season.

9:20	Comment From AJT So I guess this is more of a Paul question. I am likely moving to Boston in a few months, so I was wondering if there was anything in particular I should check out while there? (Other than Fenway, which I have never been to).

9:21	Paul Swydan: Well, tons, yeah. But tonight I’m not really feeling like tour guide. Ask me again next week?

9:21	Paul Swydan: Jeff is here, I think!

9:22	Jeff Zimmerman: Hey guys, sorry I was out scouting 5-6 year-old T-Ballers

9:22	Comment From Arrested Development reference Greinke or Sabathia ROS?

9:23	Paul Swydan: I’m more inclined to trust Sabathia, but this is a good question.

9:23	Jeff Zimmerman: Greinke, NL West is the big reason. Cooler games (SF, SD, LA) and pitchers hittings

9:23	Paul Swydan: Yeah, that’s a good point Jeff.

9:23	Comment From Guest i traded shelby miller (for markakis) and then added wacha & gausman… are the latter two going to bite me in the butt (5×5 12 team mixer)?

9:24	Paul Swydan: Perhaps, but either way I think I’m still highest on Miller of that trio.

9:25	Jeff Zimmerman: Good trade and just piece together the rest of the staff. Heck, just get the no name starting against the Royals

9:25	Comment From Chicago Mark How difficult is it for you guys to say sss on players like Sabathia or Heyward instead of thinkong is actually wrong?

9:26	Paul Swydan: It’s not difficult if I think that is the issue, but this far into the season it’s fair to consider whether an injury is at hand or whether the player is doing something different in a positive or negative fashion.

9:26	Jeff Zimmerman: SSS is lest of an issue with Pitchers. I look at stats which stabilize quickly and see if anything has changed.

9:26	Comment From Indro Since when are Philly and Boston not rivals?

9:27	Jeff Zimmerman: I have never considered them rivals at all.

9:28

Paul Swydan: Well, to the best of my recollection, they had never played a game in a meaningful game before they were anointed as rivals in interleague, and I don’t really think “Dr. J and Larry Bird did not care for each other” is a good basis for creating a baseball rivalry. But maybe it’s just me…

9:28	Comment From Guest Would you trade Lincecum and Skaggs for Gausman in a keeper?

9:28	Paul Swydan: Nope, I’d probably stick with the NL West guys.

9:28	Jeff Zimmerman: no way

9:29	Paul Swydan: For reference, before the season, Skaggs was 12 on Klaw’s list, and Gausman was 26. 7 and 15 for Hulet. In other words, let’s pump the brakes on Gausman.

9:30	Comment From njs krod or pestano?

9:30	Paul Swydan: K-Rod for me.

9:30	Jeff Zimmerman: Pestano completely based on the first name of Vinnie

9:30	Comment From Guy Kluber – top 50 SP ROS?

9:31	Jeff Zimmerman: No off the top of my head, but let me look

9:31	Paul Swydan: I’m going to say no, even with the K% and BB% numbers. He’s still a 27-year-old guy who is still waiting to make his 20th major league start.

9:32

Comment From Kate Upton: Fantasy MVP
I lived in Cambridge for 3 years, which is right next door. Walk the Freedom Trail. It’s worth it. Also, Harvard’s Natural History Museum is amazing (and relatively unknown). If you like looking at animals, they have essentially every animal known to man taxidermied and on display. It’s cooler than it sounds.

9:32	Jeff Zimmerman: It will be interesting to see if he can keep the walk rage down < ----Kluber

9:32	Paul Swydan: These are good, especially the former. This will sound weird, but whale watches are also fun.

9:33	Comment From Chicago Mark Another HR for Chris Davis. This is no longer sss for him, is it? WOW!

9:33	Paul Swydan: I was looking at Davis’ stats the other day and trying to poke holes in them, and was coming up empty. I still don’t think he’s this good, but this could end up being the career year that everyone thought he was capable of putting up.

9:34	Jeff Zimmerman: He has always had good power, contact was the issue. And Baltimore is a great place to hit HRs.

9:34	Comment From Lefty In looking at K%-BB% is there a minimum threshold you look for? Have you seen starters be effective long-term with a relatively low K%-BB%?

9:35	Paul Swydan: Hmmm. I haven’t investigated the latter, but I like to see a double digit difference.

9:35	Paul Swydan: Really, no votes for Captain America? Or Thor? Thor had Natalie Portman…

9:35	Jeff Zimmerman: No, not really.

9:36	Comment From TangoAlphaLima Dom Brown with his 11th HR tonight? Can he keep it up and be a 30+ HR guy?

9:36	Paul Swydan: He can, but I don’t think him having a 30-homer year would make him the star that is normally associated with the figure.

9:36	Jeff Zimmerman: Maybe, there will be a couple adjustment periods during the summer. It depends how he handles them.

9:37	Comment From Guest Assuming Cliff Lee were to get into the Hall of Fame, would he be the first player to accumulate the large majority of his value after age 30?

9:37	Paul Swydan: I doubt it, but that’s certainly an interesting thing to look at. I might just steal that for a piece.

9:37	Comment From Prich Seattle Mariners; one of the 5 biggest joke organizations in MLB?

9:37	Paul Swydan: Oops, sorry Jeff.

9:38	Jeff Zimmerman: Some other pitchers where that way. Randy Johnson and the Niekro

9:38	Paul Swydan: Seattle has to be up there at this point, yes.

9:38	Jeff Zimmerman: Seattle >>>>>>Royals right now. At least Seattle has the balls to demote struggling players.

9:39	Comment From Empty Beer Can Matt Holiday Done-zo?

9:39	Paul Swydan: Just as long as he isn’t Green-Zo. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1F3qv8VgfFE

9:39	Jeff Zimmerman: I see him aging away. Some ok years, some not so good years.

9:41	Paul Swydan: His walk rate has been spot on, and he is striking out less. His BABIP should come up some as well. His career BABIP is .342, and right now he’s at .266. He’s definitely not the guy he once was, but he’s probably better than he has been this year.

9:41	Comment From Angelo Carson Cistulli is and will always be a great man.

9:41	Comment From Junior Ortiz Tell me something about Mackey Sasser

9:42	Jeff Zimmerman: Nothing here.

9:42	Paul Swydan: When I was with the Colorado Rockies, I used to work with a guy who was semi-obsessed with Mackey Sasser, and would regularly invoke his name during conversation. It was adorable.

9:42	Comment From person hscer Tyler Moore and Roger Bernadina with back to back HR. Unlikeliest of the year.

9:42	Paul Swydan: That’s something.

9:43	Paul Swydan: Ortiz came THIS CLOSE to homering off of Papelbon.

9:43	Jeff Zimmerman: It is up there.

9:43	Comment From Studs Terkel Just traded Evan Gattis (keepable for 7-8 years) for Jay Bruce (only available to me this year). Good trade?

9:43	Paul Swydan: I think so. Certainly a trade worth making. I think Howard Bender said today on Twitter that he was offered James Shields in return for Gattis, which is just nuts.

9:44	Jeff Zimmerman: Depends on needs, but could be a good trade.

9:44	Comment From Kate Upton: Fantasy MVP Harvey is pitching another gem again tonight. Has he moved into the Top 10 ROS? People keep saying SSS, but he looks dominant out there virtually every start.

9:44	Paul Swydan: If he’s not top 10, he’s certainly top 20.

9:45	Jeff Zimmerman: Other pitchers have been this good and dropped off. It will be interesting to see if he can keep it up for the whole season.

9:46	Paul Swydan: Wait, now the Hulk has votes before Thor and Capt. America? What is this, bizzaro chat?

9:46	Comment From John Re: Padres pitching graveyard. Robbie Erlin. Give the guy a damn shot

9:46	Paul Swydan: Yup.

9:46	Comment From person hscer and now 7 ER in 3.2 IP for Gausman so far

9:46	Paul Swydan: Yup.

9:46	Comment From Tim What is your opinion on Tyler Skaggs upside? His changeup looked average to above average and he could locate it. With his plus curveball, and an accurate, though not overpowering, fastball, does he have #2 upside? NL West has to help a bit.

9:46	Jeff Zimmerman: Anyone know how long the CWS-CHC game has been delayed.

9:46	Paul Swydan: I haven’t seen anything Jeff.

9:47	Paul Swydan: As for Skaggs, I love his upside, and his upside caused me to write my piece today about Ian Kennedy and why he may not be long for Arizona: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/will-ian-kennedy-be-the-odd-man-out-in-arizona/

9:47	Jeff Zimmerman: Not sure there is much upside. most pitchers really don’t improve over time.

9:47	Comment From Dave Think it’s been over an hour on the Chicago delay

9:48	Paul Swydan: Thanks Dave!

9:48	Comment From Cecil Espy Is this the season that the Pirates make a “splash” trade and acquire an impact player (front-end starter) and/or hitter?

9:48	Jeff Zimmerman: OK, Dave, so probably Sale is done

9:48	Paul Swydan: If they do, it’s probably more on the hitter side. The pitching side they can make their splash by promoting Cole and Taillon.

9:48	Jeff Zimmerman: If so, I think they will wait to the last day.

9:49	Paul Swydan: So Jeff, you’re saying that they will hold on for one more day? http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uIbXvaE39wM

9:50	Comment From Dave EJax was actually pitching well too. Only 2.1 innings, but still, any glimmer of hope there

9:51	Jeff Zimmerman: Isn’t this his off year? That said is ERA estimators have him under 4 ERA.

9:51	Paul Swydan: His FIP is still a healthy 3.69, so yeah, there still is plenty of hope. And he had 18 K’s in his last 20 IP heading into tonight.

9:52	Comment From Ahjas Fahtid Span or Revere ROS?

9:52	Paul Swydan: Span

9:52	Jeff Zimmerman: Span

9:52	Comment From Dave How is Cole still a top prospect? Sure, he throws really hard, but he doesn’t miss bats and he’s got command problems.

9:52	Comment From Bill Landrum Um….Cole hasn’t exactly been lighting the world on fire in AAA. With his struggles, Karsten done for the year, Morton iffy, and McDonald imploding, they need a starter or two.

9:54	Paul Swydan: Yes, he has command issues. No, that doesn’t make him a dud all of a sudden. And I think the Pittsburgh rotation comes down to whether or not they get good Liriano all season.

9:54	Jeff Zimmerman: Got me, Ervy Santana should be available

9:54	Comment From Kate Upton: Fantasy MVP I love how Matt Holliday homers just after someone in here asks if he is done.

9:54	Paul Swydan: Delicious.

9:54	Comment From Ahjas Fahtid Thoughts on the Giants adding an arm at the deadline? Do you see Lee or Nolasco as potentials? Maybe Porcello?

9:55	Jeff Zimmerman: Lee would be the only improvement. I wouldn’t count on positive production from the other two.

9:56	Paul Swydan: Forget the deadline, they may need to add one soon. Unless everyone is cool with Mike Kickham. Which they might. He had decent Triple-A numbers for the PCL.

9:56	Comment From Tim Xander Bogaerts hasn’t lit the world on fire in AA, but he’s still young. Keith Law has him at 3 in his most recent list. What do you think his upside is?

9:56	Jeff Zimmerman: I would like to see more of the hit tool develop.

9:56	Paul Swydan: High. Not worried about Bogaerts at all. Like Klaw said, he’s 20 and in Double-A. And he’s hit well over the past month or so.

9:57	Comment From Guest Bud Norris for SF?

9:57	Paul Swydan: I think that’s a trade that could make a lot of sense if the Giants part with the right prospect.

9:57	Jeff Zimmerman: And may be striking out in the 30% range in the majors < -------Bogaerts

9:58	Jeff Zimmerman: I am with Paul that the trade may work for both clubs.

9:58	Comment From Marcos ROS Dempster, Harren, Ogando, McCarthy, leake, Lackey

9:58	Paul Swydan: Ogando, Dempster, Lackey, Leake, McCarthy, Haren

9:59	Jeff Zimmerman: I almost had the exact opposite order.

9:59	Paul Swydan: DISAGREEMENTS!

9:59	Comment From Chicago Mark Sorry to repeat my question. But you said Porcello couldn’t be counted on for positive production. But his K rate is up. His bb rate is down. His gb rate is great. Isn’t he pitching better this year than ever? Wouldn’t he give something positive ros? Especially in SF?

9:59	Paul Swydan: Chicago Mark, don’t point out when I’m wrong, it makes everyone sad.