Archive for July, 2013

Daily Notes: Top Performances of the Cape League So Far

Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of the Daily Notes.

1. SCOUT Leaderboards for the Cape Cod League
2. Illustrative GIF: James Kaprielian of UCLA and Yarmouth-Dennis

SCOUT Leaderboards for the Cape Cod League
Introduction
The Cape Cod League is a collegiate wood-bat summer league that, against all odds, is located in Cape Cod, Massachusetts, USA. Annually, it serves as home to many of the country’s top college prospects. By way of example: approximately one-third of all players taken in the first 10 rounds of the most recent draft were products of the Cape League. By way of another example: approximately 70% of the players who’ve been named MVP of the Cape League have recorded major-league service time of some type or another.

Below are the SCOUT leaderboards for the Cape’s top hitters and pitchers a little more than a month into this summer’s edition of the league. (All data courtesy Pointstreak.)

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FanGraphs Chat – 7/17/13

11:50
Dave Cameron: It’s Trade Value week — and also, I guess there was an All-Star Game last night — so I’d imagine we’ll have a lot of questions about the list so far, and what’s still to come over the next few days. We’re also getting closer to the trade deadline, so we can deal with who is likely going where by the end of July as well.

12:02
Dave Cameron: Chat is starting shortly. Trying to figure out what to do with the puppy. Right now, she’s having fun with the world’s largest zucchini, but I’m pretty sure that won’t last long.

12:05
Comment From Guest
Should the Rockies buy, sell, or hold?

12:05
Dave Cameron: I’d say hold. With Tulo back, a run at the division isn’t totally out of the realm of possibility, but they’re not quite at a spot where they should go for broke either.

12:05
Comment From ryan
Is there a better defender in the league at any position than Machado?

12:06
Dave Cameron: Yeah, probably a lot of them. He’s good enough to play short, but he’s not Andrelton Simmons or Jose Iglesias or Didi Gregorius.

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The Worst of the Best: The Wildest Pitches of the First ~Half

Hey everybody — that’s you! — and welcome to the first part of The Worst Of The Best’s first ~half in review. This is a link to what The Worst Of The Best is, basically. It’s objectively incorrect to refer to what’s happened as the first half of the season, since every team in baseball has played at least 91 games and every team in baseball won’t play at least 182 games. But “first half” is the accepted terminology, and it’s the easiest way to grab your attention, and you know what I mean when I say “first half”, and technically we’re about halfway to the conclusion of the World Series. It’s been more than the first half of the regular season, but it’s been about exactly half of the complete, competitive season. Spring training can go ahead and get lost. I’ll care about spring training when spring training decides to provide for me more complete PITCHf/x information.

What you’re going to find below are five wild pitches, from between March 31 and July 14. They’re the five wildest pitches of that window of the season, as determined by distance from the center of the strike zone. Ordinarily, this is where I tell you it’s all based on PITCHf/x, but included below are two pitches that PITCHf/x didn’t even register. That’s how you know the pitches were terrible, or, PITCHf/x just had a glitch, which happens sometimes. Some pitches that just missed being included: Phillippe Aumont to Travis Snider on July 2, Ian Kennedy to Pablo Sandoval on April 29, and Cory Gearrin to Justin Ruggiano on July 3. Those pitches were 67.8 – 69.6 inches from the center of the strike zone. The pitches you’re going to see were worse. Sometimes everything just goes to hell for no reason other than that sometimes everything just goes to hell.

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The Fringe Five: Baseball’s Most Compelling Fringe Prospects

The Fringe Five is a weekly exercise (introduced in April) wherein the author utilizes regressed stats, scouting reports, and also his own heart to identify and/or continue monitoring the most compelling fringe prospects in all of baseball.

Central to this exercise, of course, is a definition of the word fringe. The author recognizes that the word has different connotations for different sorts of readers. For the purposes of this column, however — and for reasons discussed more thoroughly in a recent edition of the Five — the author has considered eligible for the Five any prospect who was absent from all of three notable preseason top-100 prospect lists.

This week, the reader will find that two players retain their place among the Five — namely, very successful major-league debutant Danny Salazar of Cleveland and entirely promising White Sox infielder Marcus Semien.

Departing from the Five proper — largely because the author, not unlike a three-year old child, demands to be constantly surprised by new wonders — are third-base prospect Maikel Franco (Philadelphia), right-hander Cody Martin (Atlanta), and left-hander Robbie Ray (Washington).

Replacing that triumvirate are entirely able Futures Game participants Arismendy Alcantara (a shortstop in the Cubs system) and Eddie Butler (a right-hander in the Colorado one) — plus also left-handed St. Louis prospect Tim Cooney, who has been excellent of late.

Now, here are this week’s Fringe Five:

Arismendy Alcantara, MI, Chicago NL (Profile)
Would Alcantara appear here among the Fringe Five this week were he not to have hit an impressive second-level home run (video) on Sunday during the Futures Game? “Likely not,” is the present author’s answer to that question; however, that same author will point to how Alcantara has appeared previously among both the Fringe and Next Five. The author will also remark upon how (a) Alcantara’s defense-independent marks (389 PA, 13 HR, 38 BB, 85 K) suggest above-average offensive production, how (b) Alcantara remains quite young (21) for Double-A, and how also (c) he’s likely to continue occupying a place on the strong end of the defensive spectrum.

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Q&A: Eric Stults, Poor-Man’s Randy Jones

Eric Stults didn’t represent the San Diego Padres in last night’s All-Star Game. He arguably deserved the honor, which is remarkable given where he’s come from. The 33-year-old left-hander was claimed off waivers last May after being released by the White Sox. Three years ago he was pitching for the Hiroshima Toyo Carp.

Stults had 8 career wins when he joined the Padres. Last year he doubled that total while logging a 2.40 ERA. So far this season, in 20 starts, he is 8-7 with a 3.40 ERA and 3.32 FIP. His 1.91 BB/9 is seventh-best among National League starters. He’s been the Padres best pitcher, and, surprisingly, one of the better lefties in the league.

More than a decade after being drafted by the Dodgers out of Bethel College, Stults has evolved into a poor man’s Randy Jones. In the mid-1970s, Jones won a Cy Young award and had a pair of 20-win seasons for the Padres. The southpaw did so with a fastball that could barely break a pane of glass. Stults is also similar to his skipper. Bud Black epitomized the term “crafty lefty” throughout the 1980s and into the 1990s.

Stults talked about his evolution as a pitcher, including his ability to change speeds with the best of them, when the Padres visited Fenway Park earlier this month. Read the rest of this entry »


Effectively Wild Episode 245: Listener Emails Like You Wouldn’t Believe

Ben and Sam answer listener emails about knuckleballers, batting practice, crazy Coors Field seasons, Bryce Harper’s hair, and more.


2013 Trade Value: #35 – #31

Honorable Mentions
#50 to #46
#45 to #41
#40 to #36

As we get towards the middle of the pack, we start to find players who have been among baseball’s best performers in 2013. While the last section was littered with potential, this section is more about realized potential, at least in 2013. These guys are highly talented players having terrific seasons, and as usual, their contract status is also adding value.

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All-Star Game Live Blog

4:34
Paul Swydan: Hi everybody!

The FanGraphs After Dark Chat is on hiatus for one week so that we can bring you the All-Star Game Live Blog!

Jeff Zimmerman will be here at 8 pm ET, I will be here at 9 pm ET and Chris Cwik may be around at some point, but then again maybe not. Either way, we’ll have you covered from start to finish, unless it’s a blowout or something.

I’ll get some polls up, and you get some questions in the queue. It’s a plan that’s just crazy enough to work.

See you tonight!

7:53
Comment From Mike
Jeff, were you the guy who came out with the pitcher injury probability thing? If so, is there a Rest of Season version of that that is available? Thanks

7:56
Jeff Zimmerman: As you can see, I have begun taking questions and will blog once the game starts.

On the previous question, I haven’t ever run mid season projections. The best I have is PAIN which I will go over in detail on Thursday.

7:56
Comment From Guest
TELL ME MORE ABOUT HOW AWESOME CHEVY IS

7:57
Jeff Zimmerman: I had enough of that last night.

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MLBPA Chief Michael Weiner With Potential Game Changer On Biogenesis

Major League Baseball Players’ Association chief Michael Weiner held his annual All-Star Game press conference this morning. That is news in and of itself, in light of Weiner’s battle with brain cancer that has now sidelined him to a wheelchair. But even in his weakening condition, Weiner made news on the Biogenesis front.

I followed up and Bill Shakin replied.

Why is this big news? Because the plain language of the Joint Drug Policy says that a player who violates the policy by use or possession of a performance enhancing substance is subject to the same discipline as a player who tests positive. As I explained in the post MLB and Biogenesis: A Primer, Section 7.A of the Joint Drug Policy states:

A player who tests positive for a Performance Enhancing Substance, or otherwise violates the Program through the possession or use of a Performance Enhancing Substance, will be subject to the discipline set forth below. (emphasis mine) 1. First violation: 50-game suspension; 2. Second violation: 100-game suspension; 3. Third violation: Permanent suspension from Major League and Minor League Baseball.

Weiner, with Bill Shakin’s clarification, appeared to say that if the Biogenesis investigation turns up evidence of a player’s use or possession, the league would proceed under the “just cause” provisions of the Joint Drug Policy and the Collective Bargaining Agreement. I explained those provisions, as well, in the Primer post and further in last week’s post entitled “Is Selig Preparing To Use The Nuclear Option?” Essentially, the just cause provisions give the commissioner the power to discipline a player if he acts against the best interests of baseball.

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The Least-Deserving All-Star Game Starting Pitchers

Much of the time, the pitcher who starts the All-Star Game is very deserving, and is very obvious. It may not be the most-deserving pitcher mind you, but the selection is generally someone good enough that the selection is not worth arguing. This year is such a year: Both Max Scherzer and Matt Harvey rank second in their respective league in WAR, and are close enough to the front runners (Felix Hernandez and Adam Wainwright) as to make the differences negligible. But that hasn’t always been the case. Let’s take a trip down memory lane and look at some of the starting pitchers who weren’t quite as deserving.

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