After having typically appeared in the entirely venerable pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections were released at FanGraphs last year. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the New York Yankees. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other Projections: Atlanta / Baltimore / Boston / Cleveland / Minnesota / Philadelphia / San Diego / St. Louis.

Batters
It’s the ambition of the author, in the composition of these ZiPS posts, first to do no harm. For that reason, I’ll abstain from a prolonged discussion of Alex Rodriguez and/or The Alex Rodriguez Saga. The present state of affairs — at least with regard to how it affects the New York Yankees — appears to be thus:

1. Alex Rodriguez is appealing a very long suspension currently; and

2. The Yankees have signed Kelly Johnson; and

3. The Yankees, more recently, have signed Brian Roberts.

That’s three infielders, two of them injury-prone, for two positions. Johnson and Rodriguez are about equally valuable on a rate basis according to ZiPS, it looks like, while Roberts is closer to replacement level. That is all we will speak of that, for the moment.

Elsewhere, one finds both that (a) the WAR totals for the Yankees field players are sometimes low-ish and that (b) those same WAR totals are frequently low-ish (when they’re low-ish) because the playing-time projections are also low-ish. Brett Gardner, Derek Jeter, and Mark Teixeira: none of them are projected to reach even 500 plate appearances, for example. Also for example, each of them is considered the starter at his respective position.

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A few days ago, I looked at the possibility of major league hitters no longer showing any hitting improvement, on average, once they debut in the majors. I believe both the banning of PEDs and teams being able to evaluate MLB ready talent are the keys to this change.

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Matt Thornton isn’t ready to call it a career. The southpaw reliever is 37 years old and is coming off a so-so season — the Red Sox left him off their post-season roster — but he feels he’s far from done. In fact, he just signed a free-agent contract with the New York Yankees.

It took a long time for him to get started on his career, though. Thornton was drafted out of high school by the Detroit Tigers, but his passion was basketball. The Sturgis, Mich., native eschewed his home-state team and enrolled at nearby Grand Valley State University, where he played both sports. Three years later, the Seattle Mariners made him the 22nd overall pick of the 1998 draft.

Thornton proceeded to spend seven years in the minor leagues. He reached Seattle at the age of 27, and after a pair of bumpy campaigns with the Mariners, he finally hit his stride after being dealt to the Chicago White Sox. Over 10 big-league seasons, Thornton has appeared in 606 games and averaged more than a strikeout per inning.

Thornton talked about his long road to big-league success late in the 2013 season. Read the rest of this entry »

Ben and Sam discuss recent trades and signings, focusing on moves by the Indians, White Sox, and Diamondbacks, Kevin Towers’ changing approach to building a bullpen, and the reliever market.

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Inspired by the Yankees’ loss of Robinson Cano, I got to thinking about how teams have coped with missing stars in the past, which led to this post published earlier Tuesday. Setting an arbitrary “star” threshold of 6 WAR, the data sample wasn’t huge over 25 years, but on average teams that lost stars fared only a little bit worse than teams that kept them. And I didn’t even control for circumstances by, say, including payroll information. Basically, stars are great and more or less replaceable if you can prepare for a departure and spread resources around. The Yankees should survive a Cano-less existence.

The first comment below the post points to an obvious follow-up:

Obligatory: How teams fare gaining a star level player

So, now this is that.

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Free agent closers are the most expensive single player type in baseball. When Matt Swartz did his price calculations for different positions a couple of years ago, he found that teams were paying approximately three times the average $/WAR for relievers as they were for the general population of players. And a disproportionate amount of the money going to relievers was paid to the “proven closers” who hit free agency coming off strong seasons with big save numbers. While solid setup guys might collection a few million and get a two or even three year deal occasionally, big name closers were racking up paychecks that paid them like above average everyday players, with the crazy Jonathan Papelbon contract ($50 million over four years) as perhaps the height of the market’s absurd closer valuations.

The days of Papelbon-style contracts for brand name closers seem to be over. Last year, Rafael Soriano got the largest contract of any free agent reliever, at $28 million for two years, and besides Mariano Rivera’s final one year contract with the Yankees, no other reliever got more than $7 million per year. This year, Joe Nathan was the #1 closer on the free agent market, and he signed for $20 million over two years after the Rangers opted not to make him a $14 million dollar qualifying offer. Nathan’s age was always going to keep him from getting a long contract, but Nathan isn’t the only closer on the market, and now Grant Balfour is showing that the market for closers might not be what it used to be.

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Though the research put forth by Jeff Sullivan today on teams following the loss of a six-win player wasn’t extremely damning — teams letting stars go didn’t even lose two wins more than teams that chose to retain their stars — it’s hard to see the Yankees as having done much more than tread water this offseason. For all the good that signing Jacoby Ellsbury and Brian McCann did, going from Robinson Cano to Brian Roberts and Kelly Johnson shot a hole in their infield. And now, with unclear remaining resources and a third baseman fighting to play in 2014, it looks like the Yankees are still an infielder short of a full deck. What available infielder could help the team the most?

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Yesterday, Major League Baseball officially announced their new agreement with Nippon Professional Baseball regarding the transfer of players from Japan to the U.S. The most prominent change in the rules is the $20 million maximum fee that NPB teams will receive, and this is the aspect of the rules that has drawn the most attention. However, there is another significant change to the rules that is worth looking at, especially because of its potential long term ramifications on domestic players already under contract to MLB teams.

Under the old posting system, the move of a player from Japan to MLB was somewhat akin to a trade, only with MLB teams using cash instead of players as the currency to acquire the player’s rights. The system wasn’t that different from what we see in minor trades between MLB teams, where a player’s rights are transferred from one club to another in exchange for a small cash payment. In the last year, players such as Chris Nelson, Mike Carp, Casper Wells, and Travis Blackley have all been traded for cash, as their rights were sold from one team to another in exchange for monetary compensation. The posting system was basically just this kind of trade, only magnified, because the players getting posted were usually quite good.

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