As of Thursday, an awful lot of people are happy. The Diamondbacks are happy, because they were able to move Justin Upton for value. The Braves are happy, because they were able to get Justin Upton for a good but not outstanding package. And Justin Upton is happy, because he gets to go play in Atlanta, instead of Seattle or somewhere else. Upton was hoping for a destination like this, if not this destination specifically, and now he can put his alleged malcontent days behind him and play alongside his brother. This is a move that felt like it had to be made, and now it’s been made, officially.

But from the Braves’ perspective, there are not zero concerns. For one thing, now they’re down a Martin Prado, and their third-base situation could be stronger than it is. And then there’s the matter of Upton, and the strikeouts that he brings. He’ll share an outfield with B.J. Upton, who strikes out, and Jason Heyward, who strikes out too. There’s been some degree of concern that the new Braves might strike out too often, which means there’s concern that the Braves’ offense might underachieve.

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Kyle Farnsworth’s free agent decision is expected to come soon, with the big right-hander having narrowed his decision down to the Tampa Bay Rays and the ever-present Mystery Team. Farnsworth lost his closer’s spot in Tampa Bay to the phenomenon that was Fernando Rodney, and his injury-limited 2012 season was somewhat of a disappointment: in 27 innings, Farnsworth allowed a 4.00 ERA and a 3.39 FIP; his 4.67 BB/9 was his highest since 2001.

A ballooning walk rate and decreasing velocity — his average fastball velocity fell from 96.7 MPH to 95.4 MPH* — gives ample reason for pessimism and has likely limited Farnsworth’s options in free agency. But, at least by the numbers, there’s still reason to believe The Professor can be a sharp contributor to a bullpen in 2013.

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Earlier in the week, I discussed the type of prospect package the Diamondbacks would require from the Atlanta Braves for a deal to make sense for both franchises. Little did I know the Braves would be willing to part with Martin Prado, a lynchpin of the organization who has averaged nearly four-wins per season from 2010-2012.

When a player of Prado’s ilk is included, the prospect haul is bound to shrink. While all four youngsters have Major League possibilities, the group is void of impact potential. Read the rest of this entry »

Ben and Sam discuss the ins and outs of umpire-manager arguments.

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The Diamondbacks have traded Justin Upton again. This time, he’s actually going away. After he rejected a deal to Seattle, they’ve found a new trade partner in the Atlanta Braves, and have crafted a pretty interesting deal that isn’t at all similar to the one they previously tried to make.

In exchange for Upton and third baseman Chris Johnson, the Diamondbacks reportedly are going to receive Martin Prado, Randall Delgado, Nick Ahmed, Zeke Spruill, and Brandon Drury. While they previously tried to trade him for a high risk/high reward pitching prospect and a middle infielder who is probably a year away from the big leagues, this trade doesn’t really make the Diamondbacks that much worse in 2013, and appears to be more of a win-now kind of trade.

With Prado, the Diamondbacks finally get the third baseman they’ve been looking for, and a pretty good one at that. No, he’s not going to repeat the +6 WAR season he put up last year, which was driven by an outlier UZR, but he’s got a nice base of skills that should allow him to remain an above average player. He makes a ton of contact and has some pull power that should play well in Arizona, and he’s probably at least an average defender at third base. In his career, Prado has averaged +3.4 WAR per 600 PA — exactly the same mark that ZIPS projected for Upton this year, by the way — and at age 29, he shouldn’t be in for a huge drop-off. The D’Backs probably get an equivalent upgrade at third base to the downgrade they’ll receive in the outfield, and then they also get some more pitching depth and three prospects of some value.

From just a 2013 perspective, this deal probably doesn’t move the needle that much. Both teams received one above average player, and no one else in the deal is likely to make a huge impact at the big league level this year. It’s the years after this one that will determine whether this trade was worth it for both sides.

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Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of the Daily Notes.

1. Regressed Stats for the Dutch League, Also
2. Professional Humor Video: Holland vs. the Netherlands

Regressed Stats for the Dutch League, Also
Much as he did for the Italian Baseball League in the composition of yesterday’s Daily Notes post, the author has spent a not insubstantial portion of the past 24 hours both (a) copy-and-pasting Dutch baseball league stats into an Excel file, and then (b) formatting and applying a simple regression to those same stats, so’s to produce the leaderboards one finds below — which is to say, SCOUT-type leaderboards for that same Dutch baseball league

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The Yankees, Mets, Braves and Phillies were all in pursuit of Scott Hairston, and it wasn’t until last week that it appeared the Cubs even had a chance. Now the oft-wanted role player is joining the Chicago Cubs on a 2-year deal worth up to $6 million after incentives.

Hairston’s well-documented ability to hit left-handed pitching (119 wRC+ against lefties, 86 wRC+ against righties) has earned him quality playing time in the majors, but never a starting gig. That trend should continue as he joins a Cubs outfield alignment already featuring a pair of lefties in David DeJesus and Nate Schierholtz.

Schierholtz has a career 96 wRC+ against righties and 90 wRC+ against his brother southpaws. On the merit of two consecutive strong seasons against right-handers (123 wRC+ in 2011, 126 wRC+ in 2012), Schierholtz figures to earn a hearty 500 PA as the Cubs anti-righty platoon mate.

DeJesus, meanwhile, owns a much more pronounced platoon split. His strong defense across the outfield and 117 wRC+ against righties keeps him in the lineup most days, but his 80 wRC+ against lefties may make him — despite being the more proven hitter — a possible platoon partner for Hairston as well.

All told, Hairston and his surprise suitors together make an increasingly interesting team, rich both in flaws and talents. With Hairston and a few other Scotts — Scott Baker, Scott Feldman, Kyuji Fujikawa (“Scott,” to his friends, I believe) — the Cubs look like they may need a hunting cap in 2013. The playoffs may not be out of reach.
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If you weren’t a baseball fan between 1968 and 1984, you probably aren’t very familiar with Tom Burgmeier. Even if you know the name, chances are you don’t realize he was one of the top workhorse relievers of his era. Over 17 big-league seasons — mostly with the Royals, Twins and Red Sox — the lefthander appeared in 745 games and threw 1,258.2 innings.

Burgmeier was no slouch. An American League All-Star in 1980, he finished his career with a record of 79-55, 102 saves, and a 3.23 ERA. Displaying excellent control, he walked just 2.7 batters per nine innings. As for the innings themselves, they rarely came one at a time, even though he finished 370 games.

——

David Laurila: How did being a relief pitcher in the 1970s and early 1980s differ from today?

Tom Burgmeier: Back in my era, it didn’t matter when you came into the game, whether it was the third inning, fifth inning, or whenever. You pitched until you got in trouble. Nowadays everything is designated. A guy is a long man, so if it gets past the fifth inning he never comes into the game. They have a sixth-inning guy and a seventh-inning guy. They don’t have an “eighth-inning guy,” he’s called a set-up guy. Then you obviously have your closer, who is another one-inning guy.

All through my career, if you came into the game in the fifth inning, you got them out in the fifth, sixth, seventh and eighth. You stayed in there until the ninth unless you had a bona fide closer. When I was with the Red Sox, we had Bill Campbell and Bob Stanley. and we were all reliable for multiple innings. That’s what we did. It kind of bothers me to see a guy come in and have really good stuff, and strike out the side, and the next inning there’s someone else on the mound.

DL: You were a closer in 1980 and saved 24 games.

TB: By definition I was a closer. In total, I had 19 saves that were more than one inning. Read the rest of this entry »

Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections, which have typically appeared in the pages of Baseball Think Factory, are being released at FanGraphs this year. Below are the projections for the Detroit Tigers. Szymborski can be found on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other 2013 Projections: Angels / Astros / Athletics / Blue Jays / Brewers / Cubs / Diamondbacks / Giants / Mets / Nationals / Phillies / Pirates / Rangers / Reds / Rockies / Royals / White Sox.

Batters
On the one hand, we know that the league-average BABIP generally settles within the .290-.300 range. On the other, we also know that Tigers center fielder Austin Jackson has posted a .370 BABIP over his first three seasons (ca. 2000 plate appearances). On the third hand — this being one of those rare instances in which a third hand is present — we know that true-talent BABIP tends not to exceed about .350.

How does ZiPS handle a situation like this? Szymborski addressed a question along these very same lines on Wednesday, writing: “Short version: even at 1960 PA, you expect a player’s BABIP to regress ~43% toward mean.”

Otherwise, here’s a point of interest: Andy Dirks is likely as productive a major-league corner outfielder as Torii Hunter, whom Detroit signed to a two-year, $26 million contract this offseason — and is likely a full win better than the departed Delmon Young.

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