After having typically appeared in the entirely venerable pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections were released at FanGraphs last year. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Detroit Tigers. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other Projections: Atlanta / Baltimore / Boston / Cleveland / Los Angeles NL / Miami / Minnesota / New York AL / Philadelphia / San Diego / Seattle / St. Louis.

Batters
Each of the four positions within Detroit’s opening-day infield this coming season will very likely be occupied by a different player than on opening day in 2013. Part of the reason for that is because of how Miguel Cabrera returns to first base, a role to which his defensive abilities are more well suited. Another part of the reason is owing to the departures both of Prince Fielder (via trade) and Omar Infante (via free agency) this offseason. Despite the changes, the probable infield contingent for 2014 (as depicted in the depth-chart image below) ought to rival, in terms of wins, any of those belonging to the last three iterations of the Detoit Tigers, each of which has qualified for the playoffs.

In a recent piece here, Jeff Sullivan explored possible destinations for free-agent outfielder Nelson Cruz. Detroit he classified as a “stretch” — making it actually one of the more likely clubs, relatively speaking, to sign Cruz. So far as ZiPS is concerned, corner outfield and designated hitter are the only positions at which Detroit is likely to receive below-average production.

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Ben and Sam answer listener emails about switching agents, the spitball, rule changes, advanced stats in other sports, and more.

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The other day, Eno wrote something up about the importance of team depth, and about the importance of being able to measure it. I think the thing I like most about the A’s roster right now is how it’s so deep in so many places. The Cardinals, too, have given themselves some flexibility. Depth is something you never think about at first — at first, you’re simply focused on the top bits of the depth chart — but for as much as the need for particular depth is unpredictable, odds are those extra players are going to matter. Players who aren’t on the opening-day roster, or who aren’t starters, are going to end up responsible for attempted runs scored and attempted runs prevented.

I think most people have a good understanding that it matters to have starting-pitcher depth beyond the front five. At least, most people who hang around at places like FanGraphs. We all get that pitchers are volatile, and we all get that pitchers get injured. Yet still there’s a focus on just the first five, because no pitcher is individually super likely to break down, and if the five are good enough you should never need a replacement, right? People talk about filling out five-man rotations, but really, a team would be fortunate to lean on a five-man rotation, and I thought it could be useful to provide some updated numbers from the season most recently finished. Those sixth and seventh starters in a system — they’re going to get innings. Sometimes a lot of them.

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A few things to know about Nelson Cruz:

• Cruz is 33 years old
• He’s coming off a PED suspension
• The last three years, he’s been worth the same WAR as Sean Rodriguez and John Buck
• He’s a free agent seeking four or five years and about $15 million per

Cruz’s contract wishes are memorable, in the same way that Ervin Santana’s nine-figure contract wishes are memorable. Terms players want aren’t necessarily indicative of anything — ultimately, players have to play for what a team is willing to spend. Cruz might very well fall way short of what he came into the offseason seeking. It’s already January, and at least Santana has the excuse that his market has been held up by the Masahiro Tanaka situation. Cruz is just waiting to be bid on, and he doesn’t seem to have too broad a market. And, though we can’t know what his market actually is, we can attempt to determine it from the outside. Below, a quick review of all 30 teams as potential Nelson Cruz landing spots.

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Yeah, I know, this is like the 40th post this week about Masahiro Tanaka. I’m sorry about that, but in our defense, there’s nothing else going on. Tanaka’s posting has effectively shut down the market for starting pitching until he signs, or at least, until teams that think they have a shot at him learn that they don’t. Most of the position players worth writing about have already signed, and now we’re just into staredown mode between the Mets and Stephen Drew, the Mariners and Nelson Cruz, and the Orioles and Kendrys Morales. Maybe I’ll try to find something interesting to say about one of those three players next week.

Today, though, more Tanaka, because I still find this entire situation pretty fascinating. You guys expect him to sign for $120 million over six years, not including the $20 million posting fee, so the final price would put Tanaka squarely in the range of what Zack Greinke got last winter, despite the fact that he’s technically still a prospect. And historically, the crowdsourced contract forecasts have been low on the top guys, so there’s a pretty decent chance that he’s actually going to cost more than 6/$140M, and his final price might push him into the range of contracts recently signed by legitimate aces like Felix Hernandez and Justin Verlander.

And yet, the general consensus is that Tanaka probably isn’t an ace in the way that most people think of the word. Most of the scouting reports suggest that his strengths are going to be throwing strikes and getting ground balls, with enough strikeouts on his splitter to make the overall package successful. There are certainly very good pitchers who fit that description, so I thought I’d create a list of pitchers who have pitched to something like that skillset over the last three years, as a representation of what that kind of performance actually looks like.

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Quite a lot has happened since November 22nd. Not to the author, specifically — his life is more or less a metronome of quiet anguish — but for the world, generally, that is. Among those many events which have come to pass in the last month-plus: the conclusion of the regular season for each of the four major Caribbean winter leagues.

Not necessarily because such an exercise is of great utility, but definitely because it provides a means to contemplating baseball whilst moping through the depths of January, the author has published below a final statistical report on those same Caribbean Leagues.

Specifically, what the author has done is to identify the regressed hitting and pitching leaders in the Dominican Winter, Mexican Pacific, Puerto Rican, and Venezuelan Winter Leagues separately. What he’s then done is to combine the hitting and pitching leaders of those leagues into a triumvirate of top-10 lists, which one can find below. Note: all ages are as of July 1, 2013; all organizations, as of the end of regular-season play.

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Clint Frazier has as much power as any player who was taken in the 2013 draft. Selected fifth overall by the Cleveland Indians, the right-handed-hitting outfielder can propel baseballs long distances. A big reason is his bat speed, which Baseball America called the best in his draft class.

Frazier — who celebrated his 19th birthday in September — projects as more than a home-run threat. Blessed with above-average athleticism, he was named Gatorade National Player of the Year after hitting .438 in his final season at Loganville [Ga.] High School. After inking his first professional contract, he hit .297/.362/.506, in 196 plate appearances, in the Arizona Summer League.

Frazier talked about his game, including the adjustments he’s making in pro ball, late in the 2013 season. Also weighing in was Carter Hawkins, Cleveland’s assistant director of player development. Read the rest of this entry »

Ben and Sam review Bill James’ old baseball predictions for 2015, then issue their own for 2030.

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