Let’s talk about slumps. Mike Trout is drawing some attention for his elevated strikeouts, and he’s on pace for 21 fewer batting runs than he produced a year ago. Prince Fielder’s had some trouble adjusting to his move, and he’s on pace for 29 fewer batting runs than he produced a year ago. Robinson Cano up and changed sides of the continent, and he’s on pace for 34 fewer batting runs than he produced a year ago. These are all pretty big statistical declines, and while the players are each too good to give up on after so little time, their numbers are getting noticed. People are impatiently waiting for the players to look like themselves. I should note that Trout’s still been amazing, on account of being Mike Trout, but one can be simultaneously amazing and worse.

You know what nine or ten runs mean. You know the rule of thumb is that’s about what a win is. A win’s a pretty big deal, so those declines above are pretty big deals. And, of course, offense isn’t the only area where numbers fluctuate. Defensive Runs Saved, as shown on FanGraphs, updates daily. A year ago, as a shortstop, Andrelton Simmons was worth 41 runs above average in the field. This year he’s on pace for +4. He’s a full-time player on pace to be worse by 37 runs, and that’s an enormous gap that to my knowledge no one’s discussed.

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Chris Getz announced his retirement yesterday. The former White Sox and Royals second baseman was outrighted by the Blue Jays after 28 plate appearances (16 wRC+). In his statement, Getz makes clear that he is ready to move on with his life. Given his performance on the field the last few years, that life probably would not be enhanced by spending a lot of time floating around Triple-A. There are worse fates than retiring from baseball at 30 after 1574 major league plate appearances, even if they were less than scintillating (.250/.309/.307, 66 wRC+ career).

Although Getz’s talents were quite exceptional relative to the world’s population, they were quite unremarkable in the context of professional baseball. There were not really any moments exciting enough to stand out to people outside of his home fanbases (and maybe not even to them). But Getz’ retirement does provide a good occasion to briefly compare his trajectory with that of the other two players involved in the November 2009 trade between the White Sox and Royals that sent Getz and Josh Fields to Kansas City for Mark Teahen. The far-less-heralded Getz somehow outlasted both Fields and Teahen as a major league player.

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Mookie Betts is hitting .400. Mookie Betts has reached base in 70 consecutive games. Mookie Betts walks more often than he strikes out. Mookie Betts doesn’t have a position, but it doesn’t matter. Mookie Betts is coming.

The question is when? Since Ben Cherington took over as the team’s director of player development in 2003, the Sox have promoted 75 position players to the majors. Parsing that list for playing time, duplicates (as in someone got a September call-up but was still rookie eligible the following season) and players who weren’t really Red Sox farmhands, such as Brandon Snyder, leaves us with the following 18-player list:

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Chris Heisey made his big-league debut with the Cincinnati Reds in 2010. A year earlier he put up a .900 OPS with 22 home runs and 21 stolen bases between Double-A and Triple-A. Following his break-out season on the farm he played in the Arizona Fall League.

Heisey has yet to break out in the big leagues. He’s had his moments – he went deep 18 times in 2011 — but for the most part he’s been a spare part. Seeing time at all three outfield positions, he’s averaged fewer than 300 plate appearances per season. His career slash line is a nondescript .252/.307/.425.

The 29-year-old hasn’t changed much since he broke in. His skill set is the same, as is his quest to improve certain facets of his game. That became clear when we revisited an interview I did with him during his Arizona Fall League stint.

The first thing we addressed was mechanical adjustments. In 2009, Heisey told me he had “almost a no-stride swing.” Read the rest of this entry »

Jose Fernandez. Patrick Corbin. Jarrod Parker. A.J. Griffin. Luke Hochevar. Matt Moore. Brandon Beachy. Cory Luebke. Bruce Rondon. Bobby Parnell. Kris Medlen. Ivan Nova. And now Martin Perez. Top and mid-tier pitchers in the early stages of their professional careers who have had Tommy John surgery this season, or in the case of Perez, are about to have it. Then there’s Matt Harvey, Jonny Venters, Dylan Bundy, Alex White and Eric O’Flaherty, who went under the Tommy John knife last season. For these pitchers, the surgery and rehabilitation will consume critical service time in their careers when they would otherwise be building up value for their arbitration-eligible seasons or free agency.

So while we lament the loss of these talents to our favorite team and to the game, the players face a troubling question: how will Tommy John surgery and the typical 12-18 month recovery time affect their short-term earning power?

Let’s start with the “lucky ones”: Matt Moore, Martin Perez, Cory Luebke and Dylan Bundy.

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The San Diego Padres currently own the worst offense in baseball. Maybe that’s not surprising given that they play half of their games in Petco Park, one of the league’s most pitcher-friendly confines. Still, an average of three runs per game is paltry, and the fact that they’ve scored three runs or less – when teams win just 22 percent of the time this season – in 26 of their 40 games is rather astounding, especially since they’ve managed to go 19-21.

It’s so bad, in fact, that even when the park is controlled for using weighted runs created plus (wRC+), the Padres still grade out as the worst offense in baseball, and by a significant margin. Their wRC+ of 75 is indicative of an offense 25 percent worse than the league average, and they’ve produced quite a cushion between themselves and the next worst offense (the Cubs, with a wRC+ of 81).

Where does the blame fall for this kind of offensive ineptitude? You’d think it would be a team-wide epidemic but most of the blame can fall squarely on the league’s most tenuous trio.
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Before the year started, an easy prediction for National League Cy Young Award winner would’ve been the Dodgers’ Clayton Kershaw. Then Kershaw, last year’s winner, went and got himself hurt, and though he’s presently back in action, the voters have historically been big on full seasons.

When Kershaw went down, an easy substitute NL Cy Young prediction would’ve been the Marlins’ Jose Fernandez. Then last year’s NL Rookie of the Year who, finished third in the Cy voting, got hurt and is having Tommy John surgery on Friday.

So, the field’s open.

Philadelphia’s Cliff Lee, certainly, is a contender, if he doesn’t get traded to the other league. Washington’s Stephen Strasburg now has his ERA under control, and of course there’s no forgetting St. Louis’ Adam Wainwright, last year’s runner-up in the Cy voting.

However, if the voting were to be conducted today, the certain winner would be Cincinnati’s Johnny Cueto … even if Kershaw and Fernandez hadn’t suffered their injuries, because Cueto has been that dominant.

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2 hours today beginning at 11am ET – and, no, I have no idea if the Rays will yank Grant Ball-four from the closer role and who they will replace him with.

11:01

Comment From RotoLando What are The Ray’s    Jason Collette: A disappointing baseball team. Next question

11:02

Comment From Graham Messed up. I’m 124.1 over for my projected IP max currently. Should I trade some pitchers or just allocate my innings better? or both?    Jason Collette: Be more choosy about who you use moving forward. Also, don’t understand the obsession with leagues putting caps on innings. Floors – sure, but if someone wants to punt saves to max out their K’s & wins, let them.

11:03

Comment From RotoLando What are The Rays’ problems this year? Seems like the AL East is as wide open as it has ever been, but they can’t capitalize.    Jason Collette: Bullpen has been overtaxed because of too many five and dive outings. They have 13 quality starts as a team, which last I checked, is worst in baseball. Also lack a deep bench so they have been victimized by suboptimal matchups in key situations late. When you lose 60% of your rotation and your top pitching reserve, stuff like this happens.

11:04

Comment From RotoLando Juan Carlos Montoya Lopez Nunez Oviedo!    Jason Collette: Prepare to die!

11:05

Comment From Schilling and Pence Two questions: (1) What’s your guess as to how Singleton performs when he gets up? (2) Is Kuroda a buy-low candidate, or is Kuroda done?    Jason Collette: 1 – He’ll struggle. 2 – I’ve always been fine owning Kuroda until mid-August when he fades off

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Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
Atlanta at St. Louis | 20:15 ET
Ervin Santana (40.2 IP, 68 xFIP-, 1.1 WAR) faces Lance Lynn (47.0 IP, 91 xFIP-, 0.6 WAR). The former has produced the fifth-best park-adjusted xFIP among the league’s qualified starters thus far, while also having produced the third-most linear-weight runs by means of his slider.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Atlanta or St. Louis Radio.

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Each weekday during the minor-league season, FanGraphs is providing a status update on multiple rookie-eligible players. Note that Age denotes the relevant prospect’s baseball age (i.e. as of July 1st of the current year); Top-15, the prospect’s place on Marc Hulet’s preseason organizational list; and Top-100, that same prospect’s rank on Hulet’s overall top-100 list.

Summary
Black might have the most velocity of any minor leaguer.

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