2015 ZiPS Projections – San Diego Padres

After having typically appeared in the very hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have been released at FanGraphs the past couple years. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the San Diego Padres. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other Projections: Atlanta / Chicago AL / Colorado / Detroit / Houston / Los Angeles AL / Los Angeles NL / Miami / Milwaukee / New York NL / Oakland / San Francisco / St. Louis / Tampa Bay / Washington.

Batters
Unsurprisingly, given the zeal with which general manager AJ Preller et al. sought to turn over the roster this offseason, the four most encouraging WAR projections for Padres hitters belong to players who were acquired over the past month-plus. Surprisingly, perhaps — at least given the profile of the deal — none of those four are Matt Kemp. He’s forecast to produce among the top offensive lines on the club, but also -9 runs defensively in a corner-outfield spot. Wil Myers‘ defensive projection in center field (-12 runs) also fails to inspire hope.

An earlier version of the depth-chart image for the Padres — published by the author via Twitter on Tuesday night — featured Derek Norris and Tim Federowicz combining for five projected wins. In point of fact, the sum of their WAR forecasts is closer to five than any other whole number; the sum of their plate appearances is above 800, though, also. The number has been prorated to four wins here. Still enough, that, to profile as one of the team’s strongest positions.

Pitchers
The order in which the starters appear in the depth-chart image below isn’t a reflection of how Bud Black will arrange his rotation, but merely a collection of the top-five pitchers by projected WAR who are also candidates to start for San Diego. Omitted from that graphic is left-hander Robbie Erlin (112.0 IP, -0.1 WAR), replaced right-hander Odrisamer Despaigne (125.2, 1.2 WAR). Also omitted is Josh Johnson (104.1, 0.5 WAR), although the only recent data available for him to a model like ZiPS is that he hasn’t pitched.

With regard to the bullpen, San Diego’s produced the league’s median WAR figure in 2014. The midseason trade of Huston Street to the Angels removed some depth from the relief corps, but most of the other principals — Joaquin Benoit, Kevin Quackenbush, Dale Thayer — remain.

Bench/Prospects
As noted by Kiley McDaniel in his comprehensive examination of the Padres system, 11 prospects who profiled as 40-grade future-value players or better (on the 20-80 scouting scale) were packaged in trades over the course of 12 days in December. The returns for the Padres, in most cases, benefit the major-league roster — although there are near-ready prospects, too. Among field players, Taylor Lindsey (acquired from the Angels) is projected to produce wins at a near league-average rate. Right-hander Seth Streich (acquired from Oakland) features the best such mark among rookie-eligible pitchers.

Depth Chart
Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the Padres, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to embiggen image.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning.

Batters, Counting Stats

Player	B	Age	PO	PA	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS
Justin Upton	R	27	LF	647	92	146	29	3	23	77	12	5
Derek Norris	R	26	C	420	47	86	17	1	11	42	5	2
Wil Myers	R	24	CF	552	67	132	27	2	17	57	9	2
Tim Federowicz	R	27	C	405	41	86	20	1	8	37	1	0
Yangervis Solarte	B	27	3B	572	60	135	25	1	8	47	1	1
Jedd Gyorko	R	26	2B	535	66	117	24	1	17	68	3	2
Everth Cabrera	B	28	SS	467	59	105	18	3	3	29	33	9
Taylor Lindsey	L	23	2B	550	58	126	22	6	10	44	5	4
Abraham Almonte	B	26	CF	537	62	119	22	5	8	42	15	6
Matt Kemp	R	30	RF	529	73	129	26	2	16	71	12	4
Yonder Alonso	L	28	1B	435	44	105	23	1	9	47	6	1
Jake Goebbert	L	27	LF	481	63	98	19	6	12	50	4	2
Will Middlebrooks	R	26	3B	444	39	97	16	1	13	46	4	1
Cameron Maybin	R	28	CF	359	47	78	14	4	5	29	13	4
Austin Hedges	R	22	C	434	43	89	20	2	5	39	3	5
Alexi Amarista	L	26	SS	469	51	106	18	4	6	46	9	3
Jose Rondon	R	21	SS	473	42	104	20	3	1	30	12	10
Will Venable	L	32	CF	469	62	104	18	5	11	44	17	6
Reymond Fuentes	L	24	CF	478	58	100	19	5	5	38	24	6
Tommy Medica	R	27	1B	411	54	87	21	3	13	49	4	1
Carlos Quentin	R	32	LF	276	33	57	15	0	10	38	0	0
Clint Barmes	R	36	SS	286	25	59	10	0	4	20	1	1
Griff Erickson	B	27	C	203	22	38	8	1	6	18	1	2
Travis Jankowski	L	24	CF	353	41	76	10	3	1	22	26	8
Brett Wallace	L	28	1B	548	64	120	21	1	16	53	1	1
Tyler Greene	R	31	SS	426	48	88	17	2	7	34	9	4
Jason Lane	R	38	P	53	7	12	3	0	1	6	0	0
Brooks Conrad	B	35	2B	214	28	42	10	1	7	25	0	1
Hunter Renfroe	R	23	RF	585	70	122	29	2	16	64	7	3
Cory Spangenberg	L	24	2B	483	52	108	16	9	4	42	18	11
Rocky Gale	R	27	C	236	21	49	8	0	1	18	1	1
Jake Lemmerman	R	26	SS	371	39	65	16	1	5	29	5	1
Alex Dickerson	L	25	RF	385	43	88	21	3	7	41	4	4
Cody Decker	R	28	1B	464	55	85	19	3	16	52	1	2
Rymer Liriano	R	24	LF	520	61	104	23	3	9	47	18	9
Travis Buck	L	31	LF	175	20	36	8	0	2	15	0	1
Yeison Asencio	R	25	RF	548	62	132	25	4	8	53	5	4
Jason Hagerty	B	27	1B	299	37	58	14	1	6	31	1	1
Trayvon Robinson	B	27	LF	448	43	85	17	2	7	32	11	6
Gabriel Quintana	R	22	3B	533	61	114	23	1	10	52	5	2
Brian Bixler	R	32	SS	341	34	60	9	1	3	19	7	4
Cody Overbeck	R	29	1B	409	42	84	16	1	12	42	0	2

***

Batters, Rates and Averages

Player	PA	BB%	K%	ISO	BABIP	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA
Justin Upton	647	10.5%	24.4%	.184	.315	.258	.342	.442	.344
Derek Norris	420	12.1%	23.3%	.143	.293	.237	.334	.380	.321
Wil Myers	552	9.2%	24.3%	.166	.330	.267	.335	.433	.337
Tim Federowicz	405	7.2%	25.9%	.125	.301	.234	.290	.359	.285
Yangervis Solarte	572	7.3%	10.3%	.098	.277	.260	.316	.358	.299
Jedd Gyorko	535	7.5%	22.8%	.158	.283	.239	.299	.397	.306
Everth Cabrera	467	7.7%	21.0%	.078	.319	.251	.312	.329	.290
Taylor Lindsey	550	6.5%	14.4%	.126	.278	.250	.303	.376	.299
Abraham Almonte	537	7.4%	21.6%	.115	.303	.244	.301	.359	.293
Matt Kemp	529	8.7%	24.6%	.164	.337	.271	.335	.435	.334
Yonder Alonso	435	8.0%	14.3%	.132	.294	.266	.326	.398	.318
Jake Goebbert	481	9.8%	21.8%	.157	.277	.231	.313	.388	.310
Will Middlebrooks	444	5.4%	24.8%	.138	.287	.235	.282	.373	.290
Cameron Maybin	359	7.5%	20.6%	.113	.292	.239	.299	.352	.290
Austin Hedges	434	4.6%	22.4%	.096	.274	.219	.259	.315	.251
Alexi Amarista	469	5.3%	14.7%	.101	.276	.245	.285	.346	.274
Jose Rondon	473	5.3%	16.3%	.066	.285	.239	.281	.305	.257
Will Venable	469	6.6%	22.8%	.143	.297	.242	.298	.385	.300
Reymond Fuentes	478	7.9%	25.1%	.103	.314	.235	.304	.338	.289
Tommy Medica	411	7.3%	28.7%	.177	.305	.234	.302	.411	.317
Carlos Quentin	276	9.4%	17.4%	.190	.258	.242	.337	.432	.342
Clint Barmes	286	5.2%	20.6%	.084	.275	.226	.277	.310	.256
Griff Erickson	203	9.4%	27.6%	.154	.267	.209	.287	.363	.285
Travis Jankowski	353	6.2%	20.4%	.058	.295	.235	.285	.293	.264
Brett Wallace	548	6.8%	29.0%	.141	.317	.240	.301	.381	.301
Tyler Greene	426	4.9%	31.5%	.106	.315	.223	.269	.329	.265
Jason Lane	53	7.5%	22.6%	.128	.314	.255	.321	.383	.313
Brooks Conrad	214	8.4%	30.8%	.172	.289	.219	.286	.391	.291
Hunter Renfroe	585	6.2%	28.4%	.151	.293	.226	.279	.377	.287
Cory Spangenberg	483	4.6%	24.4%	.102	.316	.240	.278	.342	.268
Rocky Gale	236	3.4%	16.9%	.049	.259	.218	.244	.267	.226
Jake Lemmerman	371	9.4%	29.4%	.102	.280	.199	.285	.301	.266
Alex Dickerson	385	4.9%	23.9%	.134	.309	.245	.289	.379	.291
Cody Decker	464	8.2%	34.5%	.174	.279	.202	.272	.376	.287
Rymer Liriano	520	6.2%	31.0%	.117	.305	.218	.275	.335	.271
Travis Buck	175	6.3%	21.1%	.088	.276	.225	.280	.313	.265
Yeison Asencio	548	3.3%	14.2%	.109	.282	.252	.280	.361	.279
Jason Hagerty	299	8.7%	25.8%	.127	.280	.216	.294	.343	.285
Trayvon Robinson	448	6.9%	32.1%	.102	.298	.207	.263	.309	.254
Gabriel Quintana	533	2.4%	31.9%	.107	.312	.224	.251	.331	.258
Brian Bixler	341	6.2%	30.5%	.064	.277	.192	.251	.256	.229
Cody Overbeck	409	4.4%	29.3%	.140	.281	.218	.257	.358	.271

***

Batters, Assorted Other

Player	PA	RC/27	OPS+	Def	zWAR	No.1 Comp
Justin Upton	647	5.5	124	-1	3.2	Derrek Lee
Derek Norris	420	4.5	105	-3	2.6	George Williams
Wil Myers	552	5.5	119	-12	2.3	Ron Swoboda
Tim Federowicz	405	3.7	86	4	2.1	Russ McGinnis
Yangervis Solarte	572	4.1	94	1	2.0	Terry Jorgensen
Jedd Gyorko	535	4.2	98	-4	1.6	Bret Boone
Everth Cabrera	467	4.1	85	-3	1.5	Royce Clayton
Taylor Lindsey	550	4.0	95	-3	1.5	David Nix
Abraham Almonte	537	3.9	89	-1	1.5	Xavier Paul
Matt Kemp	529	5.5	120	-9	1.5	Cleon Jones
Yonder Alonso	435	4.9	108	3	1.3	Pete LaCock
Jake Goebbert	481	4.3	101	1	1.2	Scott Khoury
Will Middlebrooks	444	3.8	87	1	1.2	Eric Hardgrave
Cameron Maybin	359	3.9	87	1	1.1	McKay Christensen
Austin Hedges	434	2.7	65	6	1.1	Henry Blanco
Alexi Amarista	469	3.6	81	-1	1.1	Chris Lombardozzi
Jose Rondon	473	2.9	69	6	1.0	Geoff Blum
Will Venable	469	4.2	95	-7	1.0	Al Martin
Reymond Fuentes	478	3.9	85	-4	1.0	Herm Winningham
Tommy Medica	411	4.4	103	1	0.9	Nigel Wilson
Carlos Quentin	276	5.2	120	-5	0.8	Gary Roenicke
Clint Barmes	286	3.0	69	5	0.8	Kevin Baez
Griff Erickson	203	3.4	86	-3	0.5	Bret Hemphill
Travis Jankowski	353	3.3	67	3	0.5	Leo Sutherland
Brett Wallace	548	4.1	95	-1	0.4	Chris Wakeland
Tyler Greene	426	3.1	71	-2	0.4	Danny Klassen
Jason Lane	53	4.5	102	-1	0.3	Andres Galarraga
Brooks Conrad	214	3.8	93	-3	0.3	Dave McKay
Hunter Renfroe	585	3.7	87	-1	0.2	Richie Sexson
Cory Spangenberg	483	3.3	78	-3	0.1	Ramon Caraballo
Rocky Gale	236	2.2	47	3	0.1	Charlie Greene
Jake Lemmerman	371	3.0	69	-5	0.0	Greg Thissen
Alex Dickerson	385	3.8	91	-3	0.0	Rod Allen
Cody Decker	464	3.4	84	2	-0.1	John Nelson
Rymer Liriano	520	3.2	75	3	-0.1	Billy Beane
Travis Buck	175	2.9	71	-1	-0.4	Jeremy Ware
Yeison Asencio	548	3.6	83	-3	-0.4	Ray Cabrera
Jason Hagerty	299	3.4	83	-3	-0.5	Vito Chiaravalloti
Trayvon Robinson	448	2.7	64	4	-0.5	DaRond Stovall
Gabriel Quintana	533	2.9	66	-6	-0.8	Tim Holland
Brian Bixler	341	2.1	47	-2	-0.8	Jackie Hernandez
Cody Overbeck	409	3.1	75	-1	-0.9	Terrel Hansen

***

Pitchers, Counting Stats

Player	T	Age	G	GS	IP	K	BB	HR	H	R	ER
Tyson Ross	R	28	28	28	175.7	174	64	12	148	64	60
Andrew Cashner	R	28	23	23	134.7	107	37	10	123	52	49
Ian Kennedy	R	30	29	29	181.7	176	60	18	168	79	74
Odrisamer Despaigne	R	28	22	22	125.7	101	48	10	114	55	51
Joaquin Benoit	R	37	55	0	54.0	65	16	4	39	15	14
Brandon Morrow	R	30	14	14	77.3	75	30	6	68	32	30
Seth Streich	R	24	22	22	113.7	73	38	8	116	54	50
Josh Johnson	R	31	18	18	104.3	87	37	9	103	49	46
Kevin Quackenbush	R	26	64	0	64.7	65	28	3	54	24	22
Shawn Kelley	R	31	57	0	54.0	64	20	4	44	19	18
Nick Vincent	R	28	66	0	61.3	63	19	5	52	22	21
R.J. Alvarez	R	24	46	0	51.3	58	23	3	40	18	17
Aaron Northcraft	R	25	25	25	133.3	102	59	11	132	65	61
Matt Wisler	R	22	26	26	135.3	112	44	16	132	66	62
Tim Stauffer	R	33	36	7	77.0	64	26	6	74	34	32
Cory Luebke	L	30	5	5	28.0	23	9	2	26	12	11
Eric Stults	L	35	26	25	145.7	95	39	16	153	73	68
Casey Kelly	R	25	9	9	48.3	36	12	4	50	22	21
Frank Garces	L	25	67	0	72.7	74	29	6	63	29	27
Jerry Sullivan	R	27	53	0	66.7	61	20	6	61	27	25
Dale Thayer	R	34	64	0	58.7	54	17	6	53	24	22
Jason Lane	L	38	17	14	93.0	48	18	10	101	47	44
Troy Patton	L	29	42	0	41.3	36	12	4	38	17	16
Brandon Maurer	R	24	66	0	71.0	61	23	5	66	30	28
James Needy	R	24	26	24	132.7	89	55	12	135	68	64
Scott Elbert	L	29	28	0	22.0	20	8	2	20	10	9
Marcos Mateo	R	31	29	0	34.3	31	15	3	31	15	14
Juan Oramas	L	25	20	19	97.7	78	40	11	97	51	48
Alex Torres	L	27	65	0	57.7	58	37	4	48	26	24
Robbie Erlin	L	24	23	21	112.0	82	36	13	116	59	55
Michael Nix	R	32	22	7	57.0	37	24	5	59	30	28
Leonel Campos	R	27	51	9	80.3	91	54	8	69	41	38
Tayron Guerrero	R	24	35	2	47.0	43	29	4	43	24	22
Stephen Kohlscheen	R	26	47	0	68.3	58	27	8	66	34	32
Hector Ambriz	R	31	53	0	60.0	42	24	6	60	31	29
Josh Geer	R	32	28	19	125.3	63	38	14	142	72	67
Keyvius Sampson	R	24	33	18	102.0	92	69	16	99	64	60
Elliot Morris	R	23	24	23	116.3	82	60	20	126	78	73

***

Pitchers, Rates and Averages

Player	IP	TBF	K%	BB%	BABIP	ERA	FIP	ERA-	FIP-
Tyson Ross	175.7	739	23.5%	8.7%	.283	3.07	3.22	87	91
Andrew Cashner	134.7	564	19.0%	6.6%	.277	3.27	3.31	93	94
Ian Kennedy	181.7	773	22.8%	7.8%	.293	3.67	3.56	104	101
Odrisamer Despaigne	125.7	539	18.7%	8.9%	.278	3.65	3.85	104	109
Joaquin Benoit	54.0	217	30.0%	7.4%	.267	2.33	2.52	66	72
Brandon Morrow	77.3	330	22.7%	9.1%	.285	3.49	3.41	99	97
Seth Streich	113.7	495	14.7%	7.7%	.293	3.96	3.93	112	111
Josh Johnson	104.3	453	19.2%	8.2%	.297	3.97	3.62	113	103
Kevin Quackenbush	64.7	276	23.5%	10.1%	.288	3.06	3.03	87	86
Shawn Kelley	54.0	226	28.3%	8.8%	.292	3.00	2.67	85	76
Nick Vincent	61.3	255	24.7%	7.5%	.285	3.08	3.17	87	90
R.J. Alvarez	51.3	217	26.7%	10.6%	.287	2.98	3.10	85	88
Aaron Northcraft	133.3	591	17.3%	10.0%	.294	4.12	4.19	117	119
Matt Wisler	135.3	582	19.2%	7.6%	.289	4.12	4.17	117	118
Tim Stauffer	77.0	331	19.3%	7.9%	.293	3.74	3.54	106	100
Cory Luebke	28.0	119	19.3%	7.6%	.282	3.54	3.39	100	96
Eric Stults	145.7	629	15.1%	6.2%	.288	4.20	4.08	119	116
Casey Kelly	48.3	207	17.4%	5.8%	.305	3.91	3.71	111	105
Frank Garces	72.7	310	23.9%	9.4%	.289	3.34	3.41	95	97
Jerry Sullivan	66.7	281	21.7%	7.1%	.289	3.37	3.55	96	101
Dale Thayer	58.7	246	21.9%	6.9%	.281	3.37	3.44	96	98
Jason Lane	93.0	398	12.1%	4.5%	.286	4.26	4.18	121	119
Troy Patton	41.3	174	20.7%	6.9%	.281	3.48	3.45	99	98
Brandon Maurer	71.0	302	20.2%	7.6%	.288	3.55	3.22	101	91
James Needy	132.7	588	15.1%	9.4%	.290	4.34	4.39	123	125
Scott Elbert	22.0	94	21.3%	8.5%	.286	3.68	3.73	104	106
Marcos Mateo	34.3	149	20.8%	10.1%	.286	3.67	3.86	104	110
Juan Oramas	97.7	430	18.1%	9.3%	.291	4.42	4.38	125	124
Alex Torres	57.7	258	22.5%	14.3%	.284	3.75	4.11	106	116
Robbie Erlin	112.0	488	16.8%	7.4%	.292	4.42	4.22	125	120
Michael Nix	57.0	254	14.6%	9.4%	.292	4.42	4.40	125	125
Leonel Campos	80.3	364	25.0%	14.8%	.296	4.26	4.37	121	124
Tayron Guerrero	47.0	213	20.2%	13.6%	.291	4.21	4.45	119	126
Stephen Kohlscheen	68.3	298	19.5%	9.1%	.289	4.21	4.28	119	121
Hector Ambriz	60.0	264	15.9%	9.1%	.286	4.35	4.24	123	120
Josh Geer	125.3	556	11.3%	6.8%	.296	4.81	4.66	136	132
Keyvius Sampson	102.0	474	19.4%	14.6%	.286	5.29	5.58	150	158
Elliot Morris	116.3	535	15.3%	11.2%	.290	5.65	5.69	160	161

***

Pitchers, Assorted Other

Player	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	ERA+	zWAR	No. 1 Comp
Tyson Ross	175.7	8.91	3.28	0.61	111	2.9	Darryl Kile
Andrew Cashner	134.7	7.15	2.47	0.67	104	1.9	Mike Scott
Ian Kennedy	181.7	8.72	2.97	0.89	93	1.6	Rich Gale
Odrisamer Despaigne	125.7	7.23	3.44	0.72	94	1.2	Chris Brock
Joaquin Benoit	54.0	10.83	2.67	0.67	146	0.9	Tom Henke
Brandon Morrow	77.3	8.73	3.49	0.70	98	0.9	Darren Dreifort
Seth Streich	113.7	5.78	3.01	0.63	86	0.6	Michael Macdonald
Josh Johnson	104.3	7.51	3.19	0.78	86	0.5	Everett Stull
Kevin Quackenbush	64.7	9.04	3.89	0.42	112	0.5	Bobby Jenks
Shawn Kelley	54.0	10.67	3.33	0.67	114	0.4	Frank LaCorte
Nick Vincent	61.3	9.25	2.79	0.73	111	0.4	Mike Adams
R.J. Alvarez	51.3	10.18	4.04	0.53	115	0.4	Ryan Bukvich
Aaron Northcraft	133.3	6.89	3.98	0.74	83	0.4	Jeff Fulchino
Matt Wisler	135.3	7.45	2.93	1.06	83	0.4	Gar Finnvold
Tim Stauffer	77.0	7.48	3.04	0.70	91	0.3	Britt Reames
Cory Luebke	28.0	7.39	2.89	0.64	97	0.3	Greg Mathews
Eric Stults	145.7	5.87	2.41	0.99	81	0.3	Terry Mulholland
Casey Kelly	48.3	6.71	2.24	0.75	87	0.3	Rich Fischer
Frank Garces	72.7	9.16	3.59	0.74	102	0.3	Kenny Rogers
Jerry Sullivan	66.7	8.23	2.70	0.81	101	0.2	Rich Monteleone
Dale Thayer	58.7	8.28	2.61	0.92	101	0.2	Rusty Meacham
Jason Lane	93.0	4.65	1.74	0.97	80	0.1	Chris Michalak
Troy Patton	41.3	7.85	2.62	0.87	98	0.1	Shawn Barton
Brandon Maurer	71.0	7.73	2.92	0.63	96	0.1	Danny Rueckel
James Needy	132.7	6.04	3.73	0.81	79	0.0	Jake Dittler
Scott Elbert	22.0	8.18	3.27	0.82	93	0.0	Erik Plantenberg
Marcos Mateo	34.3	8.13	3.94	0.79	93	0.0	Gregg Olson
Juan Oramas	97.7	7.19	3.68	1.01	77	-0.1	Mike Bynum
Alex Torres	57.7	9.05	5.77	0.62	91	-0.1	Brian Snyder
Robbie Erlin	112.0	6.59	2.89	1.04	77	-0.1	John Peterson
Michael Nix	57.0	5.84	3.79	0.79	77	-0.2	Bob Scanlan
Leonel Campos	80.3	10.20	6.05	0.90	80	-0.2	John Briscoe
Tayron Guerrero	47.0	8.23	5.55	0.77	81	-0.2	Jeff Smith
Stephen Kohlscheen	68.3	7.64	3.56	1.05	81	-0.5	Travis Wade
Hector Ambriz	60.0	6.30	3.60	0.90	79	-0.6	Mike Sullivan
Josh Geer	125.3	4.53	2.73	1.01	71	-0.8	R.A. Dickey
Keyvius Sampson	102.0	8.12	6.09	1.41	65	-1.3	Rob Radlosky
Elliot Morris	116.3	6.35	4.64	1.55	60	-1.9	Bill Malloy

***

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2014. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 3.93 ERA and the NL having a 3.75 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.