2015 ZiPS Projections – Washington Nationals

After having typically appeared in the very hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have been released at FanGraphs the past couple years. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Washington Nationals. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other Projections: Atlanta / Chicago AL / Colorado / Los Angeles AL / Miami / Milwaukee / Oakland / Tampa Bay.

Batters
The Nationals featured eight field players who produced a 1.2 WAR or better in 2014. All eight of them, with the exception of Adam LaRoche, appear in the depth-chart image below. All eight of them — again, with the exception of Adam LaRoche — are projected to produce a 1.8 WAR or better in 2014.

The weak point for the club remains the second-base position. Danny Espinosa is a defensive asset there and has above-average power (especially relative to the position), but his plate discipline has eroded almost entirely. According to ZiPS, middle infielder Wilmer Difo (1.6 WAR in 507 PA) is probably the club’s best option at second in terms of wins — although, insofar as he’s just barely played at High-A, that he’d play an important role at the major-league level appears unlikely.

Pitchers
As with their offense, the Nationals return almost precisely the same entire pitching staff in 2015 as they deployed in 2014. A sound maneuver, that, owing to how Nats pitchers produced the highest collective WAR among all major-league staffs last season. The triumvirate of Strasburg, Zimmermann, and Gonzalez alone have a higher projected WAR for 2015 than any of the five-man rotations projected thus far in this exercise.

Since 2010 — which is to say, Drew Storen’s first full season with Washington — Tyler Clippard has produced a better ERA and strikeout-walk differential than, and almost twice as many wins as, Storen himself. He’s projected by ZiPS to do almost all those things precisely in 2015, as well — and will do it, it appears, while setting up for Storen. Of note regarding that point: when Storen last worked as a full-time closer, in 2011, Clippard recorded almost the same gmLI* as Storen: 1.67 vs. 1.77.

*That is, average leverage index when entering a game.

Bench/Prospects
It’s quite possible that Steven Souza, recently traded to Tampa Bay, will produce an excellent season for the Rays as their starting right fielder. Souza’s departure doesn’t hurt the Nationals’ outfield depth significantly, however: both Michael Taylor and Brian Goodwin are forecast to play average to (in Taylor’s case) considerably above-average defense and hit enough to profile as at least a competent bench player. In A.J. Cole and Lucas Giolito, Washington has two minor-league pitchers projected to record major-league average seasons this year. Taylor Jordan, Blake Treinen, and Austin Voth also currently profile as somthing better than replacement level now, according to ZiPS’ computer math.

Depth Chart
Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the Nationals, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to embiggen image.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning.

Batters, Counting Stats

Player	B	Age	PO	PA	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS
Anthony Rendon	R	25	3B	583	85	143	32	5	18	72	10	2
Ian Desmond	R	29	SS	636	74	157	31	3	22	83	24	7
Bryce Harper	L	22	RF	488	65	119	19	3	22	54	8	4
Denard Span	L	31	CF	620	80	160	32	8	5	42	21	6
Jayson Werth	R	36	LF	511	67	123	25	1	15	64	9	1
Asdrubal Cabrera	B	29	2B	613	78	143	33	4	14	74	10	3
Wilson Ramos	R	27	C	330	34	82	11	0	14	50	0	1
Ryan Zimmerman	R	30	1B	462	59	114	24	2	15	70	3	1
Brandon Laird	R	27	3B	564	61	130	29	1	17	69	1	0
Michael A. Taylor	R	24	CF	527	58	109	24	4	12	54	25	10
Wilmer Difo	B	23	SS	507	57	123	18	5	9	51	25	8
Sandy Leon	B	26	C	310	30	61	13	0	5	26	1	0
Trea Turner	R	22	SS	389	51	90	13	2	5	33	18	6
Jose Lobaton	B	30	C	262	25	57	12	1	4	23	0	1
Danny Espinosa	B	28	2B	490	49	97	22	3	11	41	11	3
Brian Goodwin	L	24	CF	443	48	87	16	6	7	40	10	8
Tony Renda	R	24	2B	563	65	128	27	2	2	43	19	6
Nate McLouth	L	33	LF	351	38	73	15	2	6	24	12	3
Tyler Moore	R	28	1B	423	46	93	21	1	15	55	1	1
Will Rhymes	L	32	2B	449	44	101	16	5	3	35	5	4
Jeff Kobernus	R	27	LF	398	44	93	15	2	3	31	28	7
Nate Schierholtz	L	31	RF	397	41	86	17	3	11	48	4	4
Mario Lisson	R	31	3B	399	40	74	16	0	9	37	9	3
Kevin Frandsen	R	33	2B	342	30	83	14	1	2	29	2	2
Scott Hairston	R	35	LF	176	20	37	9	1	7	26	2	1
Sean Nicol	R	28	3B	239	22	50	9	1	1	18	4	2
Brian Jeroloman	L	30	C	242	20	42	5	0	2	14	1	2
Cutter Dykstra	R	26	2B	452	44	94	17	2	4	38	12	5
Clint Robinson	L	30	1B	513	55	112	24	2	10	55	1	1
Mitch Canham	L	30	C	180	16	35	6	1	1	11	4	2
Matt Skole	L	25	1B	420	43	79	19	1	9	55	3	1
Oscar Tejeda	R	25	3B	405	39	87	15	2	9	39	6	2
Drew Vettleson	L	23	RF	422	38	92	18	5	7	40	4	6
Greg Dobbs	L	36	1B	232	18	52	9	0	3	23	1	1

***

Batters, Rates and Averages

Player	PA	BB%	K%	ISO	BABIP	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA
Anthony Rendon	583	8.9%	17.3%	.185	.309	.276	.346	.461	.354
Ian Desmond	636	6.3%	23.6%	.176	.324	.268	.319	.444	.337
Bryce Harper	488	11.3%	22.1%	.214	.327	.280	.365	.494	.370
Denard Span	620	6.8%	10.2%	.111	.307	.280	.330	.391	.321
Jayson Werth	511	11.0%	19.6%	.161	.323	.276	.362	.437	.355
Asdrubal Cabrera	613	7.7%	15.5%	.151	.289	.260	.325	.411	.324
Wilson Ramos	330	6.1%	15.5%	.173	.279	.267	.312	.440	.326
Ryan Zimmerman	462	9.3%	18.4%	.177	.311	.275	.342	.452	.346
Brandon Laird	564	4.3%	20.0%	.155	.280	.246	.282	.401	.299
Michael A. Taylor	527	7.6%	33.2%	.142	.330	.228	.291	.370	.295
Wilmer Difo	507	4.1%	14.4%	.115	.286	.258	.292	.373	.298
Sandy Leon	310	8.4%	21.0%	.100	.264	.217	.285	.317	.271
Trea Turner	389	6.2%	24.7%	.089	.328	.251	.304	.340	.291
Jose Lobaton	262	8.8%	21.8%	.110	.301	.242	.310	.352	.293
Danny Espinosa	490	6.1%	31.2%	.138	.305	.218	.285	.356	.284
Brian Goodwin	443	9.7%	28.2%	.124	.304	.221	.302	.345	.288
Tony Renda	563	6.7%	12.8%	.072	.284	.250	.307	.322	.286
Nate McLouth	351	8.8%	16.0%	.119	.268	.235	.313	.354	.300
Tyler Moore	423	7.6%	27.2%	.176	.302	.242	.303	.418	.318
Will Rhymes	449	6.9%	10.7%	.086	.271	.247	.300	.333	.279
Jeff Kobernus	398	5.5%	19.6%	.077	.314	.254	.300	.331	.287
Nate Schierholtz	397	5.5%	19.4%	.153	.265	.235	.282	.388	.290
Mario Lisson	399	7.0%	28.3%	.120	.271	.206	.275	.326	.270
Kevin Frandsen	342	2.9%	9.1%	.069	.282	.261	.303	.330	.280
Scott Hairston	176	5.1%	23.3%	.198	.256	.228	.273	.426	.305
Sean Nicol	239	6.7%	21.3%	.065	.293	.229	.284	.294	.259
Brian Jeroloman	242	7.9%	27.7%	.050	.267	.194	.259	.244	.228
Cutter Dykstra	452	7.7%	24.6%	.081	.303	.230	.295	.311	.275
Clint Robinson	513	8.4%	17.9%	.125	.279	.240	.306	.365	.299
Mitch Canham	180	7.8%	20.6%	.067	.270	.215	.279	.282	.255
Matt Skole	420	10.7%	30.0%	.130	.295	.214	.301	.344	.288
Oscar Tejeda	405	4.4%	24.2%	.120	.281	.228	.262	.348	.269
Drew Vettleson	422	4.5%	24.2%	.124	.293	.233	.269	.357	.272
Greg Dobbs	232	4.7%	18.1%	.083	.282	.241	.280	.324	.260

***

Batters, Assorted Other

Player	PA	RC/27	OPS+	Def	zWAR	No.1 Comp
Anthony Rendon	583	6.1	120	3	4.2	Andy Carey
Ian Desmond	636	5.4	107	0	3.9	Brandon Inge
Bryce Harper	488	6.8	133	3	3.5	Danny Tartabull
Denard Span	620	5.0	97	4	2.8	Steve Finley
Jayson Werth	511	6.1	119	-3	2.3	Dusty Baker
Asdrubal Cabrera	613	5.0	101	-3	2.2	Odell Hale
Wilson Ramos	330	5.0	104	1	2.1	Danilo Sanchez
Ryan Zimmerman	462	5.8	116	2	1.8	Geronimo Berroa
Brandon Laird	564	4.1	85	6	1.8	Willis Otanez
Michael A. Taylor	527	3.9	80	8	1.7	George Lombard
Wilmer Difo	507	4.2	81	1	1.6	Aaron Holbert
Sandy Leon	310	3.2	65	7	1.2	Matt Garrick
Trea Turner	389	3.9	77	0	0.9	Dickie Thon
Jose Lobaton	262	3.8	82	0	0.9	Chad Moeller
Danny Espinosa	490	3.6	75	2	0.7	Justin Sherrod
Brian Goodwin	443	3.5	77	2	0.7	Brad Snyder
Tony Renda	563	3.7	73	1	0.6	Mel Houston
Nate McLouth	351	4.1	83	3	0.6	Ryan Christenson
Tyler Moore	423	4.5	96	1	0.4	Jason Dubois
Will Rhymes	449	3.5	74	-1	0.1	Alex Cora
Jeff Kobernus	398	4.0	73	2	0.0	Damian Rolls
Nate Schierholtz	397	3.8	82	2	0.0	Marc Sagmoen
Mario Lisson	399	3.1	64	0	-0.1	Jose Santos
Kevin Frandsen	342	3.6	74	-3	-0.1	Jerry Adair
Scott Hairston	176	4.1	88	-3	-0.3	Craig Paquette
Sean Nicol	239	2.9	59	-1	-0.4	Jason Camilli
Brian Jeroloman	242	2.0	40	1	-0.4	Chris Tremie
Cutter Dykstra	452	3.3	67	-5	-0.5	Ross Jones
Clint Robinson	513	4.0	84	-1	-0.5	Andy Barkett
Mitch Canham	180	2.7	55	-5	-0.5	Luis Rodriguez
Matt Skole	420	3.6	77	0	-0.6	Eric Danapilis
Oscar Tejeda	405	3.3	66	-4	-0.7	Carlos Casimiro
Drew Vettleson	422	3.2	70	0	-1.0	Donnie Delaney
Greg Dobbs	232	3.2	66	-4	-1.2	Larry Biittner

***

Pitchers, Counting Stats

Player	T	Age	G	GS	IP	K	BB	HR	H	R	ER
Stephen Strasburg	R	26	31	31	193.3	217	47	19	165	67	63
Jordan Zimmermann	R	29	31	31	193.3	159	34	16	181	71	66
Gio Gonzalez	L	29	29	29	170.3	171	67	13	145	66	62
Doug Fister	R	31	26	26	165.3	117	31	15	161	64	60
Tanner Roark	R	28	28	28	182.3	121	41	16	176	75	70
Lucas Giolito	R	20	26	26	134.3	126	45	17	121	60	56
A.J. Cole	R	23	25	25	141.3	120	36	19	139	64	60
Blake Treinen	R	27	26	20	120.0	78	30	10	124	55	51
Tyler Clippard	R	30	71	0	66.0	75	23	6	50	21	20
John Simms	R	23	21	14	94.7	66	28	9	96	45	42
Taylor Jordan	R	26	18	17	95.3	60	25	9	101	46	43
Austin Voth	R	23	25	25	119.0	105	47	16	115	60	56
Aaron Barrett	R	27	55	0	51.3	55	18	3	43	18	17
Craig Stammen	R	31	50	0	74.7	66	22	6	70	30	28
Drew Storen	R	27	65	0	56.7	50	14	5	52	21	20
Rafael Soriano	R	35	60	0	58.0	52	18	5	52	22	21
Jerry Blevins	L	31	62	0	56.7	55	20	5	48	22	21
Taylor Hill	R	26	27	24	143.3	73	31	19	161	78	73
Xavier Cedeno	L	28	53	0	48.7	52	19	4	42	19	18
Joe Ross	R	22	23	22	118.0	72	40	13	126	64	60
Sammy Solis	L	26	10	10	40.0	25	13	3	41	19	18
Christian Garcia	R	29	31	0	34.3	34	14	2	30	13	12
Danny Rosenbaum	L	27	16	16	87.3	45	34	8	95	47	44
Paolo Espino	R	28	25	18	118.0	86	36	16	123	64	60
Matt Thornton	L	38	54	0	34.7	23	9	2	34	14	13
Matt Grace	L	26	52	0	72.3	48	26	5	72	32	30
Mitch Lively	R	29	33	16	108.7	79	51	12	110	59	55
Paul Demny	R	25	26	13	85.7	65	41	10	86	46	43
Ross Ohlendorf	R	32	17	12	71.0	49	28	8	74	39	36
Rafael Martin	R	31	31	0	41.7	39	17	4	38	18	17
Neil Holland	R	26	44	0	65.0	48	21	6	64	30	28
Mike Gonzalez	L	37	38	0	31.0	30	13	3	29	14	13
Tyler Herron	R	28	47	0	64.7	52	32	5	62	31	29
Erik Davis	R	28	41	0	51.3	41	18	5	51	25	23
Zach Jackson	L	32	31	0	39.0	24	12	3	40	19	18
Felipe Rivero	L	23	20	19	83.3	52	41	10	89	49	46
Eric Fornataro	R	27	50	0	62.3	34	24	5	65	31	29
Matt Purke	L	24	14	14	61.0	39	27	8	66	36	34
Sam Runion	R	26	35	0	55.3	36	18	6	57	28	26
Ryan Mattheus	R	31	49	0	54.3	36	17	6	56	28	26
Jake Johansen	R	24	23	16	82.7	59	50	9	85	49	46
Tyler Robertson	L	27	39	0	36.0	29	17	4	36	19	18
Daniel Stange	R	29	48	0	59.7	45	30	5	59	31	29
Manny Delcarmen	R	33	42	0	52.3	39	29	4	52	28	26
Ryan Tatusko	R	30	26	18	108.0	74	70	12	111	65	61
Bryan Harper	L	25	34	0	47.0	33	29	5	48	27	25
Chris Manno	L	26	31	0	38.7	30	22	5	40	24	22
Bruce Billings	R	29	24	20	112.7	68	45	17	124	72	67
Zach Kroenke	L	31	25	17	102.0	45	44	14	118	66	62

***

Pitchers, Rates and Averages

Player	IP	TBF	K%	BB%	BABIP	ERA	FIP	ERA-	FIP-
Stephen Strasburg	193.3	792	27.4%	5.9%	.291	2.93	2.89	78	77
Jordan Zimmermann	193.3	795	20.0%	4.3%	.285	3.07	3.10	82	83
Gio Gonzalez	170.3	723	23.7%	9.3%	.282	3.28	3.25	87	87
Doug Fister	165.3	688	17.0%	4.5%	.283	3.27	3.52	87	94
Tanner Roark	182.3	764	15.8%	5.4%	.276	3.46	3.62	92	97
Lucas Giolito	134.3	569	22.1%	7.9%	.275	3.75	3.89	100	104
A.J. Cole	141.3	599	20.0%	6.0%	.288	3.82	3.99	102	106
Blake Treinen	120.0	514	15.2%	5.8%	.292	3.82	3.71	102	99
Tyler Clippard	66.0	271	27.7%	8.5%	.267	2.73	3.05	73	81
John Simms	94.7	408	16.2%	6.9%	.290	3.99	3.91	106	104
Taylor Jordan	95.3	412	14.6%	6.1%	.294	4.06	3.93	108	105
Austin Voth	119.0	519	20.2%	9.1%	.288	4.24	4.39	113	117
Aaron Barrett	51.3	215	25.6%	8.4%	.292	2.98	2.78	79	74
Craig Stammen	74.7	316	20.9%	7.0%	.291	3.37	3.17	90	85
Drew Storen	56.7	236	21.2%	5.9%	.285	3.18	3.17	85	85
Rafael Soriano	58.0	244	21.3%	7.4%	.280	3.26	3.31	87	88
Jerry Blevins	56.7	238	23.1%	8.4%	.277	3.34	3.26	89	87
Taylor Hill	143.3	622	11.7%	5.0%	.290	4.58	4.59	122	122
Xavier Cedeno	48.7	207	25.1%	9.2%	.294	3.33	3.21	89	86
Joe Ross	118.0	520	13.8%	7.7%	.291	4.58	4.41	122	117
Sammy Solis	40.0	174	14.4%	7.5%	.288	4.05	3.83	108	102
Christian Garcia	34.3	147	23.1%	9.5%	.298	3.15	3.31	84	88
Danny Rosenbaum	87.3	391	11.5%	8.7%	.291	4.53	4.55	121	121
Paolo Espino	118.0	513	16.8%	7.0%	.290	4.58	4.40	122	117
Matt Thornton	34.7	147	15.6%	6.1%	.291	3.37	3.42	90	91
Matt Grace	72.3	315	15.2%	8.3%	.289	3.73	3.82	99	102
Mitch Lively	108.7	487	16.2%	10.5%	.290	4.56	4.63	122	124
Paul Demny	85.7	384	16.9%	10.7%	.288	4.52	4.59	121	122
Ross Ohlendorf	71.0	315	15.6%	8.9%	.291	4.56	4.40	122	117
Rafael Martin	41.7	180	21.7%	9.4%	.288	3.67	3.79	98	101
Neil Holland	65.0	280	17.1%	7.5%	.289	3.88	3.88	103	103
Mike Gonzalez	31.0	135	22.2%	9.6%	.295	3.77	3.63	101	97
Tyler Herron	64.7	288	18.0%	11.1%	.291	4.04	3.98	108	106
Erik Davis	51.3	223	18.4%	8.1%	.295	4.03	3.77	107	101
Zach Jackson	39.0	169	14.2%	7.1%	.289	4.15	3.90	111	104
Felipe Rivero	83.3	380	13.7%	10.8%	.291	4.97	5.02	133	134
Eric Fornataro	62.3	276	12.3%	8.7%	.287	4.19	4.30	112	115
Matt Purke	61.0	276	14.1%	9.8%	.293	5.02	5.00	134	133
Sam Runion	55.3	241	14.9%	7.5%	.288	4.23	4.24	113	113
Ryan Mattheus	54.3	236	15.3%	7.2%	.286	4.31	4.10	115	109
Jake Johansen	82.7	383	15.4%	13.1%	.293	5.01	5.07	134	135
Tyler Robertson	36.0	161	18.0%	10.6%	.294	4.50	4.30	120	115
Daniel Stange	59.7	268	16.8%	11.2%	.293	4.37	4.29	117	114
Manny Delcarmen	52.3	238	16.4%	12.2%	.295	4.47	4.33	119	115
Ryan Tatusko	108.0	505	14.7%	13.9%	.289	5.08	5.26	135	140
Bryan Harper	47.0	218	15.1%	13.3%	.291	4.79	5.07	128	135
Chris Manno	38.7	178	16.8%	12.4%	.296	5.12	5.04	137	134
Bruce Billings	112.7	507	13.4%	8.9%	.289	5.35	5.19	143	138
Zach Kroenke	102.0	468	9.6%	9.4%	.291	5.47	5.45	146	145

***

Pitchers, Assorted Other

Player	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	ERA+	zWAR	No. 1 Comp
Stephen Strasburg	193.3	10.10	2.19	0.88	130	4.9	Brett Myers
Jordan Zimmermann	193.3	7.40	1.58	0.74	124	4.5	John Burkett
Gio Gonzalez	170.3	9.04	3.54	0.69	116	3.5	Wilson Alvarez
Doug Fister	165.3	6.37	1.69	0.82	117	3.4	Brad Radke
Tanner Roark	182.3	5.97	2.02	0.79	110	3.4	Anthony Kelley
Lucas Giolito	134.3	8.44	3.02	1.14	102	2.0	Eric Gagne
A.J. Cole	141.3	7.64	2.29	1.21	100	1.9	Mark Brownson
Blake Treinen	120.0	5.85	2.25	0.75	100	1.6	Chuck Porter
Tyler Clippard	66.0	10.23	3.14	0.82	140	1.1	Rich DeLucia
John Simms	94.7	6.27	2.66	0.86	96	1.0	Jeff Taylor
Taylor Jordan	95.3	5.67	2.36	0.85	94	1.0	Mark Knudson
Austin Voth	119.0	7.94	3.55	1.21	90	1.0	Ryan Vogelsong
Aaron Barrett	51.3	9.65	3.16	0.53	128	0.7	Rich Garces
Craig Stammen	74.7	7.95	2.65	0.72	113	0.7	Jim Bruske
Drew Storen	56.7	7.94	2.22	0.79	120	0.6	Mark Huismann
Rafael Soriano	58.0	8.07	2.79	0.78	117	0.6	Terry Clark
Jerry Blevins	56.7	8.73	3.17	0.79	114	0.5	Matt Thornton
Taylor Hill	143.3	4.58	1.95	1.19	83	0.5	Daniel Griffin
Xavier Cedeno	48.7	9.61	3.51	0.74	115	0.5	Yorkis Perez
Joe Ross	118.0	5.49	3.05	0.99	83	0.4	Zach McClellan
Sammy Solis	40.0	5.63	2.93	0.68	94	0.4	Danny Borrell
Christian Garcia	34.3	8.92	3.67	0.52	121	0.4	Jason Bulger
Danny Rosenbaum	87.3	4.64	3.51	0.82	84	0.4	John Courtright
Paolo Espino	118.0	6.56	2.75	1.22	83	0.4	Shane Bowers
Matt Thornton	34.7	5.97	2.33	0.52	113	0.3	Bill Henry
Matt Grace	72.3	5.98	3.24	0.62	102	0.3	Anthony Ferrari
Mitch Lively	108.7	6.54	4.22	0.99	84	0.3	Chris Fussell
Paul Demny	85.7	6.83	4.31	1.05	84	0.3	Hector Trinidad
Ross Ohlendorf	71.0	6.21	3.55	1.01	84	0.2	Evan Thomas
Rafael Martin	41.7	8.42	3.67	0.86	104	0.2	Gregg Olson
Neil Holland	65.0	6.65	2.91	0.83	98	0.1	Chad Paronto
Mike Gonzalez	31.0	8.71	3.77	0.87	101	0.1	Norm Charlton
Tyler Herron	64.7	7.23	4.45	0.70	95	0.0	Jake Robbins
Erik Davis	51.3	7.19	3.16	0.88	95	0.0	Bo Donaldson
Zach Jackson	39.0	5.54	2.77	0.69	92	-0.1	Tom Burgmeier
Felipe Rivero	83.3	5.62	4.43	1.08	77	-0.1	Rejino Gonzalez
Eric Fornataro	62.3	4.91	3.47	0.72	91	-0.1	Scott Munter
Matt Purke	61.0	5.75	3.98	1.18	76	-0.1	Stevenson Agosto
Sam Runion	55.3	5.86	2.93	0.98	90	-0.1	Mark Hutton
Ryan Mattheus	54.3	5.97	2.82	0.99	89	-0.2	Chuck Crim
Jake Johansen	82.7	6.42	5.44	0.98	76	-0.2	Mike Bell
Tyler Robertson	36.0	7.25	4.25	1.00	85	-0.2	Bob Ayrault
Daniel Stange	59.7	6.78	4.52	0.75	87	-0.3	Jake Robbins
Manny Delcarmen	52.3	6.71	4.99	0.69	85	-0.3	Jerry Johnson
Ryan Tatusko	108.0	6.17	5.83	1.00	75	-0.4	Michael Smith
Bryan Harper	47.0	6.32	5.55	0.96	80	-0.4	Dean Brueggemann
Chris Manno	38.7	6.98	5.12	1.16	75	-0.5	Carl Keliipuleole
Bruce Billings	112.7	5.43	3.59	1.36	71	-0.7	Mike Heathcott
Zach Kroenke	102.0	3.97	3.88	1.24	70	-0.9	Chris Peters

***

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2014. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 3.93 ERA and the NL having a 3.75 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.