We’re halfway done, with the wests — both NL and the AL — and covered NL Central yesterday. Today, we tackle the AL’s version of the country’s heartland.

The Projected Standings

With no great teams and only one franchise not really trying to contend this year, this is one of the most up-for-grabs divisions in the sport. Our forecasts suggest that there are two tiers within those going for it, but I think things might be a bit more bunched up than the numbers above suggest. Let’s go team by team.

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Last season the Oakland Athletics had four players qualify for the batting title and seven players take more than 400 plate appearances for the team. With Coco Crisp out for 6-8 weeks for elbow surgery, none of those seven players will be with the A’s when the season starts. The A’s hectic winter, including the additions of Ben Zobrist, Billy Butler, Brett Lawrie, and Ike Davis, clouded somewhat exactly how far backward they went on the win curve. As Jeff Sullivan wrote in December, The A’s Are Just Doing What They Have To Do, but all the moves they made have the A’s taking a potentially significant drop from last season when they were the fourth-highest scoring team in the league. With Reddick out for the first few games and Crisp now out for an extended period, giving more plate appearances to Billy Burns and Eric Sogard further weakens an offense that was already due for a step back.

With Josh Reddick and Coco Crisp out to start the season, not one of the top nine in plate appearances for the A’s last season will begin the season with Oakland.. Of those top nine, six provided very good production with a wOBA above .330 and Reddick is the only returnee among them. In the FanGraphs Depth Charts projections, 93 Major League Baseball players have a wOBA projection above .330, but only Ben Zobrist plays for the A’s. Imports Billy Butler, Ike Davis, and Brett Lawrie should provide above average offense and a hopefully full season of Josh Reddick will help, but the offense could take a big step back this season.
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The Miami Marlins’ outfield is one of the best and most exciting in recent memory. Giancarlo Stanton, Marcell Ozuna and Christian Yelich combine current tools and skills with ample future projection. At 25, Stanton is the oldest member of the group. You might have to go back to the early-’70s San Francisco Giants and their crew of Gary Matthews, Garry Maddox and Bobby Bonds to find a group of flycatchers who filled the stat sheet while turning heads with their tools at similar career stages. Today, let’s put the focus upon Yelich, and attempt to draw a bead on both his current true-talent level and his ultimate upside. Read the rest of this entry »

With yesterday’s news that the Mets signed Juan Lagares to a new four-year, $23 million contract, another puzzle piece for the Mets’ future plans was put into place. Calling the deal an extension is a bit of a stretch, as it’s mostly just a buyout of Lagares’ arbitration years with a club option for his first year of free agency, with the contract not officially starting until 2016. Still, it gives us an opportunity to reflect on a similar recent defensive-minded deal, see how Lagares excels on the field, and place the deal in a larger context for the Mets.

The extension is very similar to the five-year, $23.5 million deal the White Sox just agreed to with Adam Eaton. That’s not a surprise, given that Lagares and Eaton are, at face value, pretty similar players: 26-year-old speedy outfielders with some (but limited) offensive upside. There are differences – Eaton’s ceiling on offense may be higher, while the same could be said of Lagares’ defense – but the comparison is a pretty sound one.

We don’t fully know what the future picture looks like for the Mets, but in centerfield, they’re now set with a team-friendly contract on a mainly defensive player that can hopefully be league-average with the bat. That’s a pretty useful thing to have, especially when said player just got done with two of the best defensive seasons by an outfielder in the past five years. Those seasons looked something like this:

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Evaluating the Prospects: Rangers, Rockies, D’Backs, Twins, Astros, Cubs, Reds, Phillies, Rays, Mets, Padres, Marlins, Nationals, Red Sox, White Sox, Orioles, Yankees, Braves, Athletics, Angels, Dodgers, Blue Jays, Tigers, Cardinals, Brewers, Indians, Mariners & Pirates

Top 200 Prospects Content Index

Scouting Explained: Introduction, Hitting Pt 1 Pt 2 Pt 3 Pt 4 Pt 5 Pt 6

Amateur Coverage: 2015 Draft Rankings, 2015 July 2 Top Prospects

With 31 players listed, the Pirates system is one of the deeper ones in the game, though a number of the guys listed below already have or will get big league looks next year. That’s obviously better than having the depth be at the low levels since the point of a system is to produce big league players, it just means the list may be less deep a year or two from now.

The Pirates do a nice job in Latin America, with the current regime led by Rene Gayo signing Starling Marte, Gregory Polanco, Dilson Herrera, Alen Hanson and Harold Ramirez, of the 45 FV or better types.  The Pirates spent big in the draft in the years leading up to the bonus pools, but have a lower bar to clear on draft expectations with the big league team’s recent success and the bonus pool system limiting the outlay for domestic prospects.

The last five 1st rounders Pittsburgh has signed (Cole Tucker, Austin Meadows, Reese McGuire, Gerrit Cole and Jameson Taillon) all have returned positively so far and the big league team’s success is proving to block some MLB-ready prospects, so the organization is in a healthy place after decades in the wilderness.

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What do we have here? For an explanation of this series, please read this introductory post. As noted in that introduction, the data below is a hybrid projection of the ZIPS and Steamer systems, with playing time determined through depth charts created by our team of authors. The rankings are based on aggregate projected WAR for each team at a given position.

Yes, we know WAR is imperfect and there is more to player value than is wrapped up in that single projection, but for the purposes of talking about a team’s strengths and weaknesses, it is a useful tool. Also, the author writing this post did not move your team down ten spots in order to make you angry. We don’t hate your team. I promise.

The rankings of power being conducted by this site have almost concluded. Today, we turn our attention to relief pitchers. We begin by turning our attention, specifically, to this graph:

Included here are the bullpens which feature the 16th to 30th most power in the major leagues. Jeff Sullivan will consider Nos. 1-15 later in the morning. Or, he probably will, at least. One oughtn’t get in the habit of assuming that everything will work out nicely. As Werner Herzog has almost certainly said at some point, disaster is inevitable.

Now, relief pitchers!

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Ben, Sam, and guests Doug Thorburn and Jeff Zimmerman draft the pitchers they think will make the most starts and avoid Tommy John surgery in the next calendar year.

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The other day, Lloyd McClendon got himself ejected from a spring-training game when he argued with an umpire. Following some earlier events, Bruce Chen threw consecutive pitches behind Rickie Weeks, and after the second one, the umpire issued warnings to both dugouts. McClendon took exception to this, figuring a warning should’ve come a pitch earlier. So then, after the second pitch, Chen should’ve been thrown out, and McClendon didn’t like that he wasn’t. After voicing his displeasure, McClendon walked 400 feet to leave the field, which might’ve given him enough time to remember that it’s March, and if anything, you might want your team to have more at-bats against Bruce Chen in the Arizona sunshine.

It’s all kind of silly, on account of how the games don’t mean a single thing. It seems ridiculous for a manager to get ejected arguing that an opposing player should’ve been ejected, in March. The stakes just aren’t there to justify the emotional response. But on some level, you can see how perhaps a manager wants to be able to defend his own player. Good for the trust. And to some degree, managers just can’t help being managers, no matter the setting. Being a baseball manager is something you can’t fully turn off, and this all brings me to the point that there are intentional walks in spring-training games.

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Everything you know to be true in your heart but hasn’t been proven by stats is worth hanging on to, even if just a little bit, and privately. The stats may catch up some day. This isn’t to say that all conventional wisdom is correct. This is to say that all “statistically-proven” wisdom is not always going to continue to be true.

Take swinging strikes, called strikes, and Vance Worley.

Vance Worley blew up in 2011. He struck out more batters on a rate basis than he ever had in the minor leagues. He did it with one of the worst swinging strike rates among starters that year. He did it with called strikes — he was fifth among starters with at least 2000 pitches that year. He did it with style, as you can see thanks to Zoo With Roy:

As 2012 approached, I was tasked with figuring out his fantasy value for the upcoming season. I had a personal preference for the swinging strike. To me, there’s no cleaner statistical happening in baseball — that the batter swung and missed is irrefutable. And the swinging strike as a moment is both triumphant and despondent, all in at once. It renders a one-nothing August game watchable. It’s beautiful.

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