In this age of Hitf/x and StatCast, batted ball velocity is a hotter topic than ever. We only have had access to such data for a limited period of time, but the hypothesizing regarding the loudest contact-makers in the game’s history has been going on as long as the game itself. While we can’t go back and retroactively calculate batted ball velocity, we can go back and calculate contact scores, and make very educated guesses to this eternal question. Read the rest of this entry »

It seems like a simple question to ask. Which recent home run was the least likely?

You could flippantly answer — the one Erick Aybar hit this year, or the one Melky Cabrera hit this year — and because they’ve got the lowest isolated slugging percentages with at least one homer hit, you would be right. But that doesn’t control for the quality of the pitcher. Aybar hit his off of Rick Porcello, who is having some issues with the home run right now.

A slightly more sophisticated approach might have you scan down the list of the worst isolated powers in the game right now, and then cross-reference those names with the pitchers that allowed those home runs. If you do that, you’ll eventually settle on Alexei Ramirez, who hit his first homer of the year off of Johnny Cueto earlier this year.

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Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
Toronto at Tampa Bay | 19:10 ET
Dickey (89.0 IP, 120 xFIP-) vs. Archer (95.0 IP, 60 xFIP-)
If the numbers possess any manner of legitimacy, it would appear as though America ought to begin acquainting itself with a new fact — namely, that Tampa Bay right-hander Chris Archer is among all the major leagues’ top-five pitchers in terms of preventing runs. Only the Dodgers’ Clayton Kershaw, for example, has produced a better park-adjusted expected FIP (xFIP-) — and only three pitchers have recorded a better strikeout- and walk-rate differential.

Of course, this won’t be the case for very long. Provided Archer declines at a similar rate to other pitchers, he’s unlikely to continue exerting such considerable influence over opposing batters. Fortunately for both the viewer and Archer himself, the deleterious influence of time likely won’t be felt so acutely on Tuesday night.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Toronto Radio.

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Last Thursday, Nationals fans had the season flash before their eyes when Bryce Harper’s leg buckled while attempting an aggressive throw. The Nationals, to this point, have managed to withstand certain injuries, but no injury would be more crippling than a big one to the best hitter in the game. Thankfully for those with an interest, Harper’s issue was minor, and he was back in the lineup Saturday. In his return, he hit a home run; in his return, Max Scherzer no-hit the Pirates.

For all the Nationals have already been through, Harper’s been there all along, and Scherzer has too. That either player is having success is by no means surprising. The Nationals gave Scherzer a big giant contract, and Harper’s been hyped since he was still in the womb. The two were expected to be two of the best players on the team. But where the Nationals find themselves now is in a particularly unusual situation. That is: Bryce Harper has been the best position player in baseball. And Max Scherzer has been the best pitcher in baseball.

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Kyle Gibson is a tall pitcher with a low K rate. The Minnesota Twins right-hander is 6-foot-6 and has fanned 5.76 batters per nine innings this season. Last year, that number was an even-more-contact-heavy 5.37. Strikeouts aren’t what he does. Gibson relies on ground balls for the majority of his outs.

A first-round pick in 2009 out of the University of Missouri, Gibson had the fifth-highest ground ball rate (54.4) among qualified starters in the American League last year. He’s a shade lower (52.8) in the current campaign, but even more successful. After going 13-12, 4.47 in his first full season as a big league starter, the 27-year-old boasts a 3.35 ERA in 14 outings for one of the junior circuit’s most-surprising squads.

Gibson talked about his approach when the Twins visited Fenway Park earlier this month.

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Gibson on height and mechanics: “ I’ve had similar mechanics since I was 15 years old. I wouldn’t say there are only so many ways a tall guy can throw, but for me to repeat my delivery I need to have certain mechanics. My dad – he pitched in junior college and was a high school coach – and I worked really hard on them from a young age. I was never a guy who threw really hard, so I’ve always had to be able to throw strikes. The best way for a kid to throw strikes is to have clean mechanics and a good release point. Read the rest of this entry »

Episode 575
Dave Cameron is both (a) the managing editor of FanGraphs and (b) the guest on this particular edition of FanGraphs Audio, during which edition he presupposes that everyone is abiding by reason.

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.

You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio after the jump. (Approximately 47 min play time.)

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Whether or not you think Jose Tabata intentionally moved his elbow into the path of Max Scherzer’s two-out, ninth-inning curveball this past Saturday, the final result stood as an example of a very rare phenomenon: a perfect game broken up on the would-be final out of the game. While still securing the no-hitter put Scherzer firmly into the record books, the history of the almost-perfecto is incredibly interesting in its own right, as is the unparalleled dominance the Nationals right-hander has shown in his past two starts.

Scherzer now has a distinct place in the discussion of historic pitching performances. We should make sure to put the emphasis on the plural of the word performance, because Scherzer just put together arguably the best back-to-back outings by a starting pitcher since at least 1914. His final combined line for his starts on June 14th and 20th:

18.0 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 1 HBP, 26 K

Scherzer faced 57 batters over his two starts: he struck out just under 46% of them. To put that in context, he had a better strikeout rate over the entirety of two consecutive complete games than Aroldis Chapman, Craig Kimbrel, or Dellin Betances have in their relief appearances this season. By the numbers, he was more or less the equivalent of facing the best closer in baseball on a particularly dominant day for two entire games.

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Ben and Sam banter about Tim Lincecum and a fateful Jose Tabata hit by pitch, then discuss how the 2014 David Price deal looks in retrospect for the Rays.

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When Chris Heston threw a no-hitter, it was a good reminder that, on any given day, any given pitcher might shut down any given lineup, that baseball history isn’t limited to being made by those names you find on team shirjeys. When Max Scherzer threw a no-hitter over the weekend, it was a good reminder that, while any given pitcher can throw a no-hitter on any given day, the probability favors the best ones. Few pitchers in the game are better than Max Scherzer; few pitchers carry higher no-hitter odds than Max Scherzer. It’s not that this sort of thing was going to happen, but no one should’ve been surprised that it did.

The enduring conversation is about the elbow that potentially turned a perfect game into something a little less perfect, and that’s understandable, because it’s different. We never really see that happen, so it’s what we want to talk about. But if you take a step back, that one pitch does little to diminish Scherzer’s brilliance, and he still didn’t allow a single hit. And that’s going to be the focus here, as it was after Heston’s game. Many have argued that the no-hitter has lost some of its sheen over the years, with strikeouts up and offense down and with a greater understanding of DIPS theory. Yet a no-hitter is still a special and memorable performance, and we’re able to analyze them differently than ever before. In the course of throwing his no-hitter, Scherzer struck out 10 Pirates. What happened in the 17 other at-bats?

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