Archive for October, 2015

Lorenzo Cain’s Most Curious At-Bat

Lorenzo Cain didn’t know Alex Gordon was going to homer in the bottom of the ninth. The Royals still needed a run. They were trailing, 4-3, with six outs to spare and the dominant never-gonna-give-up-a-game-tying-homer Jeurys Familia looming in the Mets’ bullpen.

Forty-six seconds after Ben Zobrist stepped on second base, having led off the eighth with a first-pitch double against Tyler Clippard, Cain stepped into the batter’s box. Forty-six seconds was all the time he needed. Presumably, by then, he’d considered the possibilities, weighed the pros and cons, and made up his mind. “I’m gonna bunt.”

Sixteen seconds later, he squared around.

Screen Shot 2015-10-28 at 10.43.20 AM
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Second-Guessing Starting Yoenis Cespedes in Center

There are a few phrases in baseball that come up from time to time which have no real evidence behind them, but generally inject a little enjoyment to the game as a bit of harmless trivia. One of my favorites is “As so often happens,” employed to describe that sequence when a player makes a great defensive play to close out one half-inning only to begin the next half-inning as the leadoff batter. One hears another such phrase when a defensive player has been going through struggles, perhaps has a bad reputation as a fielder, or might be nursing an injury. On those occasions when the relevant fielder is involved in a play, announcers are quick to note that “The ball will find you.” Last night, the ball found Yoenis Cespedes.

Cespedes, though turning 30 years old earlier this month, is in just his fourth year of professional baseball in the United States after defecting from Cuba. The Oakland Athletics signed Cespedes to a four-year, $36 million contract and installed him as the team’s center fielder. That particular experiment didn’t last. The A’s, perhaps trying to ease Cespedes’ transition to the majors, moved Coco Crisp from center field to left field so Cespedes could play his preferred center field. By the end of the season, the two outfielders had switched places; Cespedes, in the end, had started just 46 games in center. Until his trade to the Mets, Cespedes had recorded just 19 more starts in center field over two-and-a-half seasons. With Curtis Granderson in right, Michael Conforto in left and no designated hitter, Cespedes took over in center field as his hot bat helped the Mets to a division title.

Whether Cespedes is a more ideal fit for center field or left field is not set in stone, but the evidence we do have suggests left field is better suited to his skills. Cespedes struggled in the field in his initial transition to the majors, in both center and left field, but he adjusted to left field and quickly became one of the better left fielders in Major League Baseball.

Best Left Fielders 2013-2015
Pos Inn ARM RngR ErrR UZR UZR/150
Yoenis Cespedes LF 2914.1 21.4 17.3 -1.7 36.9 17.6
Alex Gordon LF 3601.2 19.1 17.5 3.8 40.4 14.2
Starling Marte LF 3168.1 3.8 19.0 -3.2 19.6 12.0
Christian Yelich LF 2474 -3.9 11.6 2.9 10.6 5.2
Brett Gardner LF 2010 -2.6 2.6 1.4 1.3 1.5

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Dave Cameron FanGraphs Chat – 10/28/15

11:46
Dave Cameron: Hey, look, a chat. Haven’t done one of these in, oh, 12 hours.

11:47
Dave Cameron: But even after 5 1/2 hours of live blogging last night, I’m here for my normal Wednesday get together. Let’s spend an hour talking World Series, off-season prep, or other baseball-related queries you may have.

11:48
Dave Cameron: The queue is open and we’ll start in 15 minutes or so.

12:06
Dave Cameron: Alright, let’s get started.

12:06
Comment From Phillies113
You’re chatting after chatting all night last night? You’re a wild and crazy guy, Dave Cameron.

12:06
Comment From EC
Strasburg for Kimbrel, who says no?

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Contract Crowdsourcing 2015-16: Day 13 of 15

Free agency begins five days after the end of the World Series. As in other recent offseasons, FanGraphs is once again facilitating this offseason a contract-crowdsourcing project, the idea being to harness the wisdom of the crowds to the end of better understanding the giant and large 2015-16 free-agent market.

Below are links to ballots for six of this year’s free agents, all of them starting pitchers once again.

Other Players: Brett Anderson / Nori Aoki / Alex Avila / Mark Buehrle / Marlon Byrd / Asdrubal Cabrera / Yoenis Cespedes / Wei-Yin Chen / Bartolo Colon / Johnny Cueto / Chris Davis / Rajai Davis / Alejandro De Aza / Ian Desmond / R.A. Dickey / Stephen Drew / Marco Estrada / Doug Fister / Dexter Fowler / David Freese / Yovani Gallardo / Jaime Garcia / Alex Gordon / Zack Greinke / Jeremy Guthrie / J.A. Happ / Jason Heyward / Rich Hill / Torii Hunter / Chris Iannetta / Hisashi Iwakuma / Austin Jackson / John Jaso / Kelly Johnson / Matt Joyce / Scott Kazmir / Howie Kendrick / Kyle Kendrick / Ian Kennedy / John Lackey / Mat Latos / Justin Morneau / Daniel Murphy / David Murphy / Mike Napoli / Dioner Navarro / Gerardo Parra / Steve Pearce / Alexei Ramirez / Colby Rasmus / Alex Rios / Jimmy Rollins / Geovany Soto / Denard Span / Justin Upton / Juan Uribe / Chase Utley / Will Venable / Shane Victorino / Matt Wieters / Chris Young the Outfielder / Ben Zobrist.

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Mike Leake (Profile)
Some relevant information regarding Leake:

  • Has averaged 199 IP and 2.0 WAR over last three seasons.
  • Has averaged 2.0 WAR per 200 IP* over last three seasons.
  • Recorded a 1.7 WAR in 192.0 IP in 2015.
  • Is projected to record 1.7 WAR per 200 IP**.
  • Is entering his age-28 season.
  • Made $9.8M in 2015, as part of deal signed in January 2015.

*That is, a roughly average number of innings for a starting pitcher.
**Prorated version of 2016 Steamer projections available here.

Click here to estimate years and dollars for Leake.

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JABO: Alex Gordon Proves Jeurys Familia Is Human

When Eric Hosmer misplayed an eighth inning chopper down the line, giving the Mets a 4-3 lead, the Mets had exactly what they wanted; the chance to watch Jeurys Familia finish off the final three outs of the game to preserve a lead. Given what they’ve seen from their closer over the last few months, having him hold a lead seemed like just about the surest thing in baseball.

As Jeff Sullivan noted two weeks ago, the recent version of Familia has been even better than his season numbers suggest. In mid-August, Familia added a split-finger to his repertoire after basically not throwing the pitch at all for the first four months of the year.

FamiliaUsage

Familia didn’t throw a single splitter from May 21st through August 7th, then started working the pitch in pretty regularly starting with his August 10th appearance. His numbers since that date, including the postseason:

Familia Since August 10th
IP H HR BB K ERA
34 21 1 8 39 1.06

In the equivalent of about half a season’s worth of work, Familia had been as good as any reliever in baseball, racking up five strikeouts for every walk while also inducing groundballs on 60% of his batted balls. With the splitter, he’d been the Mets version of Wade Davis, the kind of guy you just expect to blow every hitter away as soon as he steps on the mound. And after Salvador Perez grounded weakly to shortstop, a Mets victory felt inevitable.

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Alcides Escobar and a Bat and a Ball

Alcides Escobar is not a good hitter. I don’t say that to be mean — I say that to be honest. Even the Royals don’t really know how to explain Esky Magic. There’s no getting around his regular-season numbers, and when you mix in what he’s done in the playoffs, it doesn’t make that much of a difference. He’s the kind of hitter that, if you saw him in a community park, you’d think, that guy ought to play in the majors. But he’s the kind of hitter that, when he’s in the majors, you think, that guy plays a hell of a shortstop. In his best year, Escobar was a bit below average. He followed that year with a year where he hit like a good-hitting pitcher.

Escobar doesn’t walk, and Escobar doesn’t hit for power. The thing he has going for him is he’s tremendously difficult to strike out. In that sense he blends in with the Royals, although even on that roster he’s one of the standouts. Escobar, in short, is good at taking the bat to the baseball. From there, things will sort themselves out. The most charitable way to describe Escobar’s offense is that, with his speed and his contact ability, he’s usually capable of making something happen. Better a ball in play than a whiff, right? You never know, with a ball in play.

In the World Series opener, Escobar’s contact allowed for things to happen. After days of talking about the Royals’ ability to avoid the whiff, Escobar put contact to good use. Two examples were and are obvious. A third was subtle, but without it, Escobar doesn’t score the winning run on the Eric Hosmer sac fly.

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FanGraphs Audio: Dave Cameron Analyzes You-Know-What

Episode 605
Dave Cameron is both (a) the managing editor of FanGraphs and (b) the guest on this particular edition of FanGraphs Audio, during which edition he discusses not only the World Series but also the most notable personnel changes announced during the brief respite between series.

This edition of the program is sponsored by Draft, the first truly mobile fantasy sports app. Compete directly against idiot host Carson Cistulli by clicking here.

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.

You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio after the jump. (Approximately 42 min play time.)

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2015 World Series Game One Live Blog

7:33
Dave Cameron: Hey all, August Fagerstrom and I will be here to cover the first game of the 2015 World Series.

7:34
Dave Cameron: For those of you who haven’t been part of one of our live blogs before, we’ll mostly focus on game reaction stuff, so it’s less of a Q&A than our normal chats, but we do our best to make sure you guys are involved as well.

7:35
Dave Cameron: So come hang out with us as we watch the Mets and Royals, or maybe the grounds crew. Either way, it should be fun.

7:44
August Fagerstrom: hey, y’all! I’ve got a freshly-broken big toe and I’m ready to watch some World Series

7:46
August Fagerstrom: only you can decide whether that’s a euphemism

7:57
Dave Cameron: Well, this is terrible news. Source close to the Volquez family confirms to @Enrique_Rojas1 and @ESPNDeportes that Edinson Volquez’s father died today in the DR

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Contract Crowdsourcing 2015-16: Day 12 of 15

Free agency begins five days after the end of the World Series. As in other recent offseasons, FanGraphs is once again facilitating this offseason a contract-crowdsourcing project, the idea being to harness the wisdom of the crowds to the end of better understanding the giant and large 2015-16 free-agent market.

Below are links to ballots for five of this year’s free agents, all of them starting pitchers once again.

Other Players: Brett Anderson / Nori Aoki / Alex Avila / Mark Buehrle / Marlon Byrd / Asdrubal Cabrera / Yoenis Cespedes / Wei-Yin Chen / Bartolo Colon / Johnny Cueto / Chris Davis / Rajai Davis / Alejandro De Aza / Ian Desmond / R.A. Dickey / Stephen Drew / Marco Estrada / Doug Fister / Dexter Fowler / David Freese / Yovani Gallardo / Jaime Garcia / Alex Gordon / Zack Greinke / Jeremy Guthrie / J.A. Happ / Jason Heyward / Rich Hill / Torii Hunter / Chris Iannetta / Hisashi Iwakuma / Austin Jackson / John Jaso / Kelly Johnson / Matt Joyce / Howie Kendrick / Justin Morneau / Daniel Murphy / David Murphy / Mike Napoli / Dioner Navarro / Gerardo Parra / Steve Pearce / Alexei Ramirez / Colby Rasmus / Alex Rios / Jimmy Rollins / Geovany Soto / Denard Span / Justin Upton / Juan Uribe / Chase Utley / Will Venable / Shane Victorino / Matt Wieters / Chris Young the Outfielder / Ben Zobrist.

***

Scott Kazmir (Profile)
Some relevant information regarding Kazmir:

  • Has averaged 177 IP and 2.8 WAR over last three seasons.
  • Has averaged 3.1 WAR per 200 IP* over last three seasons.
  • Recorded a 2.4 WAR in 183.0 IP in 2015.
  • Is projected to record 2.8 WAR per 200 IP**.
  • Is entering his age-32 season.
  • Made $11.0M in 2015, as part of deal signed in December 2013.

*That is, a roughly average number of innings for a starting pitcher.
**Prorated version of 2016 Steamer projections available here.

Click here to estimate years and dollars for Kazmir.

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How the Mets Have Fared Against Contact Hitting

You can’t always feel original, even when you want to. Yesterday I wrote about the Royals going up against the Mets’ power pitching. I wrote about it because I think it’s interesting, but then, everyone thinks it’s interesting, so everyone has been writing about it. Lots of people have observed that the Royals have hit fastballs well. Lots of people have observed that the Royals have hit fast fastballs well. It’s been demonstrated now that good contact hitters have a slight advantage against power pitchers, relative to worse contact hitters. So much, coming from the Royals’ perspective. It’s all over the place.

A frequent counter-point: the Royals won’t just be facing hard-throwers. They’ll be facing Jacob deGrom, Matt Harvey, Noah Syndergaard, and Steven Matz. These are hard-throwers with other pitches; these are hard-throwers with instincts and command. They’re not just 98-mile-per-hour fastball machines, so maybe it’s not fair to mix them in with everyone else. I think that’s totally valid. So it’s worth running through these exercises from the Mets’ perspective. We’ve looked at the Royals against power pitchers. How about the Mets against contact hitters?

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