Archive for February, 2016

KATOH’s Farm System Rankings

‘Tis the season for prospect rankings. With little else going on in the baseball world, prospect writers typically spend the month of February releasing and discussing ordered lists of prospects and farm systems. Even within the past hour at this very site, our own Jeff Zimmerman published a farm-system ranking derived from the scouting grades produced by Baseball America.

This year, I showed up to the party a little early by putting out KATOH’s top 100 list last month. I still have more to give, however. And here I present you with KATOH’s organizational rankings.

My methodology for compiling this ranking was pretty straightforward: I simply aggregated all of the KATOH forecasts by team. Still, there a few caveats worth mentioning.

  • To be considered in this exercise, a player must have recorded at least 200 plate appearances or batters faced in 2015. KATOH derives its forecasts from minor league stats, so it can’t really formulate an opinion on players who didn’t play much in 2015. As a result, many of the players who were drafted in 2015 are omitted.
  • This exercise only considers players projected for at least 1.0 WAR over their first six years in the big leagues. Ideally, I’d consider all prospects, but that would involve verifying the teams for thousands of mostly nondescript minor leaguers. That obviously taken some time. This one-win threshold cuts pretty deep into a team’s farm system. The average team has 18 players above this cutoff, while none have fewer than 10. That feels like more than enough for these purposes.
  • KATOH tends to favor hitters over pitchers, especially on the high end. So this analysis likely favors organizations with farm systems that are hitter-heavy over those that rely more on pitchers. This is likely because a pitcher’s stats capture a smaller portion of his future potential relative to hitters. Factors like velocity also very important when it comes to projecting pitchers.
  • And as always, stats don’t tell the full story. This is the output from a flawed statistical model that fails to take into account many of the factors that go into evaluating a prospect. If an organization has a lot of raw, toolsy prospects, it’s likely to be underrated here.

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MLB Farm Systems Ranked by Surplus WAR

You smell that? It’s baseball’s prospect-list season. The fresh top-100 lists — populated by new names as well as old ones — seem to be popping up each day. With the individual rankings coming out, some organization rankings are becoming available, as well. I have always regarded the organizational rankings as subjective — and, as a result, not 100% useful. Utilizing the methodology I introduced in my article on prospect evaluation from this year’s Hardball Times Annual, however, it’s possible to calculate a total value for every team’s farm system and remove the biases of subjectivity. In what follows, I’ve used that same process to rank all 30 of baseball’s farm systems by the surplus WAR they should generate.

I provide a detailed explanation of my methodology in the Annual article. To summarize it briefly, however, what I’ve done is to identify WAR equivalencies for the scouting grades produced by Baseball America in their annual Prospect Handbook. The grade-to-WAR conversion appears as follows.

Prospect Grade to WAR Conversion
Prospect Grade Total WAR Surplus WAR
80 25.0 18.5
75 18.0 13.0
70 11.0 9.0
65 8.5 6.0
60 4.7 3.0
55 2.5 1.5
50 1.1 0.5
45 0.4 0.0

To create the overall totals for this post, I used each team’s top-30 rankings per the most recent edition of Baseball America’ Prospect Handbook. Also accounting for those trades which have occurred since the BA rankings were locked down, I counted the number of 50 or higher-graded prospects (i.e. the sort which provide surplus value) in each system. The results follows.
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The Best Transactions of the 2016 Offseason

While the offseason isn’t quite over yet, we’ve reached a point at which most of the major transactions have probably already been made. Sure, we might see Jonathan Lucroy moved in a deal over the next few weeks, but outside of some unforeseen blockbuster, it’s mostly going to be minor moves from here on out. So, with the heavy lifting behind us, it’s time to take a look back at the 10 moves that I most liked this winter.

Overall, I’ve tried to balance the value added by acquiring a player — not just his own performance, but his impact on the team’s chances of reaching and advancing in the postseason — with the price paid to make the move. In some cases, teams on this list made themselves worse in the short-term, but the potential long-term benefit suggests that it was a worthwhile sacrifice. Other teams are here for making shrewd additions that improved their chances in 2016, and one of these moves even manages to potentially improve the franchise in both the present and future; you’ll find that rare big win at the very top the list.

Of course, these are all just based on my perceptions at this point in time, and several of these moves won’t look so hot as time goes on. Last year, I really liked the Chase Headley deal for the Yankees and put the Red Sox’ acquisition of Wade Miley one spot ahead of the Blue Jays’ pickup of Josh Donaldson, so, you know, don’t take this as gospel. But based on how I look at these moves right now, without the benefit of hindsight, there are the 10 moves I’ve liked the most this offseason.

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Effectively Wild Episode 818: 2016 Season Preview Series: Cincinnati Reds

Ben and Sam preview the Reds’ season with Russell Carleton, and Jeff talks to Cincinnati Enquirer Reds beat writer C. Trent Rosecrans (at 28:21)


Sunday Notes: Lindor, Lucroy, Japan, Twins, Shaving Cream, more

A lot of buzz preceded Francisco Lindor’s mid-June call-up last summer. Much of it revolved around the when, with some suggesting the Indians’ top prospect was being unnecessarily held back. He was certainly ready once he arrived in Cleveland. Lindor hit .313/.353/.482 over 99 games and finished second in American League rookie-of-the-year voting behind Carlos Correa.

The young shortstop’s Super Two status is presumed to have played a role in the timing, but that’s less cut-and-dried than you might imagine. The Super Two cutoff date changes from year to year and is based on percentages that weren’t yet determined when Lindor debuted. In short, the small-market Indians were certainly cognizant of future arbitration hearings, but they didn’t have a date circled on the calendar.

According to Carter Hawkins, the decision was based more on readiness than on economics. Side-stepping specific questions on service time, the Cleveland farm director share the club’s thought-process earlier this week.

“In some ways, the timing of Francisco’s call-up was a little bit easier than other prospect call-ups we’ve experienced over the last few years,” Hawkins told me. “The reason being that, collectively, we felt so strongly about Francisco’s future as a cornerstone of the organization that we were able to eliminate a lot of the other variables and focus purely on what was best for Francisco from a baseball standpoint.

“There wasn’t a specific benchmark we were looking for, but over the course of the first few months in Columbus, Francisco really took his game to the next level — refining his approach, both offensively and defensively. When he really heated up in early June, it was that foundation that gave us the confidence that our team goals in Cleveland, and our development goals for Francisco, were both best served with Frankie in an Indians uniform.”

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In a recent article on 2015 first-round draft pick Christin Stewart, I noted that the Tigers, unlike the vast majority of teams, didn’t hold an instructional league this past fall. The Cardinals did, although with a wrinkle. Unlike in past seasons, they didn’t invite any of the players they drafted in June.

The decision was a curious one. It is common practice for organizations — St. Louis being no exception — to be largely hands-off during a draftee’s initials months of pro ball. If mechanical tweaks are in order, they are typically addressed during instructional league.

There is a grain of logic to what the Cardinals did. First-year players often start their high school and college seasons as early as February, so by the time the minor league schedule is completed, they’re burned out. Rather than extending the longest baseball year of their young lives, the Cardinals gave these players a chance to exhale. Whether this remains the approach going forward, or if it ends up being a one-year experiment, remains to be seen.

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Japan has been in the baseball pages of late. Jonny Gomes announced that he’ll be playing for the Rakuten Golden Eagles next year. Matt Murton, who spent six seasons with the Hanshin Tigers, inked a contract with the Cubs. Hideki Okajima, who has been pitching for the Yokohama Bay Stars, is returning stateside to compete for a job out of the Orioles bullpen. Off the field, Hideo Nomo was hired to an advisory role within player development for the Padres.

As mentioned in this space last weekend, Anthony Seratelli is retiring after concluding his career with the Seibu Lions. One of Seratelli’s Seibu teammates was a 5-foot-6 dynamo with an intriguing future.

Tomoya Mori, who turned 20 years old in August, hit .287/.357/.468 with 33 doubles and 17 home runs last year. A left-handed-hitting catcher who also plays the outfield, Mori was the youngest position player on the Lions’ roster.

“He’s very good,” assessed Seratelli. “He’s a little guy, but a very powerful little guy. He takes these nasty hacks, and when he connects the ball goes a long way. They play the game differently over there — their swings are a little different — but while he has a Japanese style, he produces an enormous amount of power for someone his size.”

Does Mori have the potential to play MLB some day?

“He’s young, so he has plenty of time to develop to where he could become a big league player,” said Seratelli. “He’d have to come over here to experience how the game is played, though.”

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Jonathan Lucroy is reportedly on the trading block. If Brewers do deal the veteran backstop, they’ll be unloading more than a good pitch-framer with a decent bat. They’ll also be losing a nice guy. At least that’s the opinion of Milwaukee minor leaguer Stephen Peterson.

“He rehabbed in Wisconsin when I was there in 2012, and again this past year in Brevard County,” said Peterson. “He’s one of the nicest guys I’ve been around. And not just him being a catcher and me being a pitcher, and getting to talk about pitching. He was great with everybody. He’s one of the most open, and genuine, guys I’ve met in the game.”

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As crack Cincinnati Enquirer Reds beat writer C. Trent Rosecrans pointed out yesterday, Jay Bruce was Baseball America’s top overall prospect heading into the 2008 season. Bruce has gone on to hit over 200 home runs, but he’s nonetheless fallen short of expectations. His last two seasons have been especially disappointing.

Rumors that the Orioles have interest in trading for Bruce may or may not have legs. If they do, and assuming they have prospects the rebuilding Reds covet — a big if — the upside is certainly there. Bruce won’t turn 30 until April 2017, and a change of scenery might result in a resurgence. If I’m Baltimore, I’m kicking the tires pretty hard.

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Dave “King Kong” Kingman hit three home runs in a game five times. Two of those contests, each of which came with the Cubs, were especially memorable.

On May 14, 1978, Kingman’s second home run of the game was a two-run shot that evened the score in the top of the ninth inning at Dodger Stadium. His third came with two on and two out in the 15th, giving the Cubs a 10-7 win.

On May 17, 1979, Kingman hit three home runs for the Cubs in a loss to the Phillies. The final score was 23-22, in 10 innings. One of them was among the longest home runs ever hit at Wrigley Field.

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Regular readers of this column will recall that Rockies pitching prospect Kyle Freeland was profiled here a month ago. Not included in that writeup were the southpaw’s thoughts on feel and focus. The 2014 first-round pick is big on both.

“I’m definitely aware of where my finger pressure is,” said Freeland. “That’s the case with with all of my pitches. It matters to how a pitch will break.”

“Fastball, I’m definitely throwing to where my catcher is set up. With my changeup, we mostly go back corner of the plate and I let the changeup work, instead of trying to hit a perfect location with it. Slider and curveball, it will depend on the count and the hitter as to whether I’m throwing directly to the glove or to a certain spot.

“You make pitching complicated when you start letting the game speed up on you. The simpler you keep it, the easier things are going to be for you. Just focus on putting the ball where it needs to be, and on throwing quality pitches.”

——

Jake Reed was nearly un-hittable in 2014. Drafted by the Twins out of the University of Oregon that summer, the starter-turned-closer put up a 0.29 ERA over 20 appearances at the A-ball level. Featuring a fastball that reportedly touched 97 mph, he had more than twice as many strikeouts as baserunners allowed.

Last year he encountered tougher sledding. In 35 appearances for Double-A Chattanooga, the righty had a 6.32 ERA and a .340 BABiP-against. The latter was partly attributable to jam shots and bloops, but a far bigger problem was the two-strike breaking pitches he left up in the zone. Those were struck with authority.

“I kind of developed a habit of failure,” admitted Reed. “I wasn’t able to put guys away, so when I got ahead in the count, instead of ‘I’m going to finish him off with this pitch,’ I was telling myself, ‘Don’t hang this.’ You need to have conviction with every pitch, and for awhile I didn’t have that.” Read the rest of this entry »


The Best of FanGraphs: February 8-12, 2016

Each week, we publish north of 100 posts on our various blogs. With this post, we hope to highlight 10 to 15 of them. You can read more on it here. The links below are color coded — green for FanGraphs, brown for RotoGraphs, dark red for The Hardball Times, orange for TechGraphs and blue for Community Research.
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68-Win A’s Get Khris Davis From 68-Win Brewers

With so much analysis and similar thinking taking over the game, it’s easy to imagine a reality where, down the road, every player in every organization is assigned a number that reflects his total value, and trades are made based on nothing more than balancing value numbers until they match. Even if that’s an exaggeration, you can see how things could come to feel that way, like trades are just the results of equations being run. In this hypothetical future, we’d see trades a lot like the one that’s just gone down between the A’s and the Brewers. Needs have been met on both sides. Everything makes very obvious sense.

I know the A’s and Brewers just finished with the same record, but the A’s don’t do the whole rebuilding thing, while the Brewers are in deep. Oakland wanted to add power from the right side and they were seeking help in the outfield, so that’s where Khris Davis fits. From Milwaukee’s side, if anything they had too many outfielders, and they didn’t have any catching depth behind Jonathan Lucroy, so that’s where Jacob Nottingham fits. Lucroy’s basically a goner anyhow, and Nottingham might not be that far away. And Bowdien Derby, known as Bubba? Live arm. Lottery ticket. More talent for the system. The A’s win the trade for the certainty; the Brewers win the trade for the upside. The A’s wanted certainty. The Brewers wanted upside.

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Selecting Baseball Teams for the Presidential Candidates

If you have been exposed to media anytime between January 2015 and today, you’re likely aware there is a presidential race at hand. Those are exciting enough on their own (the whole “future of the country” thing), but this version seems to contain excessive amounts of chaos. On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton, who everyone knew would waltz to the nomination with ease, is once again up against a grassroots insurgence from the left. On the Republican side, the clear frontrunner since they started talking about this stuff six years ago, Jeb “!” Bush, just finished fourth in the New Hampshire primary. Like the rest of the GOP field, he’s getting crushed by businessman and former reality TV star Donald Trump. You can’t make this stuff up, though it might be nice if someone had.

All this craziness isn’t unlike the 2016 baseball season. The teams are about to report to spring training and the predictions are all over the place. Coming off a World Series win, forget repeating, the Royals aren’t projected for a winning season by many (including us). The big-money teams are coming off of varying degrees of failure and have conducted themselves this offseason not unlike a fish flopping about in a boat. The National League, despite a clearer caste system in place of haves and have-nots, might be even worse. The Dodgers look like favorites in the West, but the Giants could be fantastic, and if you’re buying what the Diamondbacks are selling then… okay! Then there’s the Nationals and Mets in the East, and the Cubs, Pirates, and Cardinals in the Central. Good luck figuring all that out.

The thing is, we are trying to figure all that out. We’ve got projections and odds for the baseball teams, and there are sites that are doing projections and odds for the presidential candidates. A couple days ago at the Sporting News, Jesse Spector wrote a piece assigning Simpsons pictures to baseball teams. I figured I owe it to the internet, nay the country, to write a piece in assigning baseball teams to their corresponding presidential candidates. So I am writing that piece. And you are reading it. And I’m sorry.

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$500 Million For Bryce Harper Might Still Be a Bargain

Bryce Harper won’t be a free agent for three more years, but that hasn’t stopped people from writing about his next contract. Over the last few months, David Schoenfeld and Jeff Passan have discussed his eventual price tag recently, and Harper himself vaguely addressed the topic in a radio interview yesterday:

Harper was asked during an interview with 106.7 The Fan’s Grant Paulsen and Danny Rouhier whether he has thought about the possible magnitude of his next contract.

“I was talking to an executive this offseason,” Paulsen said. “At one point in time they said you could be the first $400 million player. Do you ever think about your future and what’s possible, in terms of you could break records for the money you make at one point in time?”

“Yeah, I mean I don’t really think about that stuff. I just try to play the years out and do everything I can to help my team win,” Harper said. “But don’t sell me short. That’s what you’re doing right now to me, so don’t do that.”

The idea that $400 million is selling Harper might seem ridiculous, but he’s right; as long as he continues to perform near expectations, the winning bid should be substantially higher than that.

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2015 Positional Ball-In-Play Retrospective – 1B/DH

Football is behind us, and large trucks are on their way to Florida and Arizona, bearing loads of baseball-related cargo. To tide us over until spring-training games kick in next month, let’s take a position-by-position look back at the ball-in-play (BIP) profiles of 2015 semi-regulars and regulars to see if we can find any clues as to their projected performance moving forward. Today, we’ll take a look at first basemen and designated hitters.

First, some ground rules. To come up with an overall player population roughly equal to one player per team per position, the minimum number of batted balls with Statcast readings was set at 164. Players were listed at the position at which they played the most games. There is more than one player per team at some positions and less at others, like catcher and DH. Players are listed in descending OPS+ order. Without further ado, let’s kick it off with AL first basemen.

BIP Overview – AL First Basemen
Name Avg MPH FB/LD MPH GB MPH POP% FLY% LD% GB% CON K% BB% OPS+ Pull% Cent% Opp%
Cabrera 93.8 96.9 91.7 1.1% 31.6% 25.2% 42.1% 163 16.0% 15.1% 170 35.8% 30.7% 33.5%
Davis 92.2 97.1 86.4 1.7% 41.8% 24.7% 31.8% 213 31.0% 12.5% 146 56.0% 26.5% 17.6%
Teixeira 89.9 93.9 86.1 3.8% 38.5% 18.9% 38.8% 134 18.4% 12.8% 146 55.5% 28.9% 15.7%
Colabello 91.1 94.8 88.0 2.5% 24.4% 25.2% 47.9% 193 26.7% 6.1% 142 34.5% 39.1% 26.5%
Abreu 92.0 94.1 90.5 3.4% 28.7% 20.7% 47.3% 146 21.0% 5.8% 135 37.6% 35.9% 26.6%
Hosmer 90.6 94.4 88.6 2.5% 21.9% 23.4% 52.2% 119 16.2% 9.1% 122 36.8% 34.6% 28.7%
Pujols 92.0 93.5 90.8 4.1% 38.1% 15.9% 41.8% 90 10.9% 7.6% 118 45.8% 34.9% 19.3%
Moreland 92.1 96.6 87.9 3.8% 30.8% 19.8% 45.6% 134 21.7% 6.2% 116 44.8% 32.7% 22.5%
Cron 88.8 93.5 84.9 6.7% 30.4% 18.4% 44.5% 110 20.3% 4.2% 106 33.8% 38.8% 27.4%
Gonzalez 89.2 93.7 85.5 4.9% 28.1% 22.7% 44.3% 114 20.0% 4.3% 106 49.1% 34.3% 16.6%
Santana 90.8 93.5 90.1 7.0% 30.1% 18.3% 44.5% 88 18.3% 16.2% 103 53.4% 28.6% 18.0%
Canha 90.4 93.4 88.6 5.7% 34.5% 17.8% 42.0% 104 19.8% 6.8% 102 42.8% 34.5% 22.7%
Carter 92.6 97.3 84.4 4.5% 47.3% 18.4% 29.8% 131 32.8% 12.4% 100 39.6% 36.3% 24.1%
Mauer 89.5 93.8 87.1 0.8% 19.4% 24.1% 55.7% 90 16.8% 10.1% 96 30.5% 37.5% 32.1%
Napoli 89.8 94.6 84.6 4.8% 37.3% 15.5% 42.4% 108 25.2% 12.2% 96 39.3% 35.9% 24.8%
Morrison 91.1 92.6 90.8 4.0% 35.0% 16.3% 44.7% 75 15.9% 9.2% 92 41.7% 34.3% 24.0%
Loney 85.9 87.0 86.2 2.1% 30.9% 24.2% 42.7% 73 8.8% 5.9% 90 38.2% 33.6% 28.2%
AVG 90.7 94.2 87.8 3.7% 32.3% 20.6% 43.4% 123 20.0% 9.2% 117 42.1% 33.9% 24.0%

Most of the column headers are self explanatory, including average BIP speed (overall and by BIP type), BIP type frequency, K and BB rates, and BIP by field sector (pull, central, opposite). Each players’ OPS and Unadjusted Contact Score (CON) is also listed. For those of you who have not read my articles on the topic, Contact Score is derived by removing Ks and BBs from hitters’ batting lines, assigning run values to all other events, and comparing them to a league average of 100.

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