Ben and Sam talk to Warren Friss, the founder of GameHedge, a new ticket vendor that promises to issue 50 percent refunds when the home team loses by five or more runs.
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Two notes regarding his edition of the Five. Firstly, on account of the bulk of it was composed hastily and at a hotel room, no video footage has been included. Secondly, the author has also included Jonathan May’s top-100 list for MLB.com as one of those which determines eligibility for the Five. The reason, mostly: Mayo included Mets shortstop prospect Gavin Cecchini among this top-100 prospects. Given his first-round pedigree and rapid ascent through the minors, Cecchini really oughtn’t be eligible for this weekly exercise. Mayo’s list precludes him from eligibility.
The Fringe Five is a weekly regular-season exercise, introduced a few years ago by the present author, wherein that same author utilizes regressed stats, scouting reports, and also his own fallible intuition to identify and/or continue monitoring the most compelling fringe prospects in all of baseball.
Central to the exercise, of course, is a definition of the word fringe, a term which possesses different connotations for different sorts of readers. For the purposes of the column this year, a fringe prospect (and therefore one eligible for inclusion in the Five) is any rookie-eligible player at High-A or above who (a) received a future value grade of 45 or less from Dan Farnsworth during the course of his organizational lists and who (b) was omitted from the preseason prospect lists produced by Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus, MLB.com’s Jonathan Mayo, and John Sickels, and also who (c) is currently absent from a major-league roster. Players appearing on an updated prospect list or, otherwise, selected in the first round of the current season’s amateur draft will also be excluded from eligibility.
In the final analysis, the basic idea is this: to recognize those prospects who are perhaps receiving less notoriety than their talents or performance might otherwise warrant.
Chance Adams, RHP, New York AL (Profile)
Adams appeared among the Next Five last week on the strength both of strong fielding-independeng numbers and promising reports. Since then, he’s actually improved his credentials for inclusion here. First, facing Pirates affiliate Bradenton last Friday, the 21-year-old right-hander recorded a 10:0 strikeout-to-walk ratio against just 17 batters over 5.0 no-hit innings. Then, in the middle of this past week, he earned a promotion to Double-A Trenton, where he debuted on Thursday. The results of that start (5.1 IP, 3 K, 1 BB) were more modest, but still indicate that Adams is unlikely to be overwhelmed by the level.
Selected by the Yankees out of Dallas Baptist University in the fifth round of the 2015 draft, Adams has worked mostly in a relief capacity in recent years — both as a collegiate and also in the Yankees system. He’s made all 12 of his appearances this season as a starter, however, and has flourished in the role, recording the best strikeout- and walk-rate differential among over 200 qualified pitchers at the High-A level. Nor is that the product merely of a polished college player facing inferior competition: Adams features plus arm speed, sitting at 92-95 mph, for example, during a recent appearance observed by 2080’s James Chipman.
Ian Desmond has, unequivocally, been a complete success for the Texas Rangers this year. He’s hitting, with a 128 wRC+, but he’s hit like that before. He’s running the bases well, but he’s run the bases well before. The third thing Desmond’s doing, though, is something he’d never done before. When he takes his position defensively, he goes to the grass instead of the dirt.
And by all indications, he’s doing a fine job of adjusting. Position switches are always interesting in theory. Sometimes, they’re less interesting in practice. One always wants to believe that an elite athlete, particularly one coming from shortstop like in Desmond’s case, has what it takes to make the transition, but we never know until we see it.
Of course, it’s too early to put too much stock into the defensive metrics, but for what it’s worth, Defensive Runs Saved considers Desmond a solid plus, Ultimate Zone Rating considers Desmond a solid plus, and Fielding Runs Above Average considers Desmond a plus. It’s nice to see uniformity among the metrics. Beyond the metrics, we’ve got quotes that suggest all parties are content. Desmond himself admitted playing shortstop was a challenge that never came easy to him, but that center field is already starting to feel more like home. Manager Jeff Banister said the transition “has been as smooth as we could expect.” And then there’s the fact that the Rangers so quickly felt comfortable letting Desmond play center field at all, that says something to the organization’s internal valuation of his ability as an outfielder.
At this point, there’s no reason to believe Desmond can’t at least stick in the outfield, and there’s even evidence to suggest he could be a plus center fielder, though perhaps that’s jumping the gun a bit. Regardless, Desmond’s got a new home, and of all the great things he’s done this season, playing the outfield is the only one we’ve never seen before, which immediately heightens the interest. Further heightening that interest is this one area of playing the outfield where Desmond’s truly shone, where he’s separated himself from the pack, that perhaps helps explain part of the reason why his transition has gone so smooth.
There’s a bizarre trend in baseball this season that I’ve spent much of the year ignoring because it’s uncomfortable to believe. As unpredictable as baseball can be at a granular level, it’s equivalently reliable in a macro sense. There’s a game virtually every night; nine defensive players are on the field at any given time; base-runners run counterclockwise; and first basemen mash. This is the baseball I know. This is the sport I’ve been watching for decades. And, yet, as Aaron Gleeman discussed at Baseball Prospectus recently, offensive production from first basemen this season has been little more than mediocre.
When Gleeman wrote his piece last week, first basemen had compiled a .761 OPS as a unit this season. They’ve since raised that to a robust .769 OPS — or, roughly the same mark as third basemen (.772 OPS) and second basemen (.761 OPS). Take a moment to truly absorb that… Second basemen have produced an OPS a mere eight points lower than first basemen. As a result, I’ve found myself searching for answers at first base that I can hope will restore balance to baseball. There aren’t many to be found — Paul Goldschmidt, Anthony Rizzo, Brandon Belt, and Eric Hosmer are a few of the only 20-somethings providing hope at the position — but there is one notable former top prospect who is currently growing into a role as a productive first baseman after having been written off by some as a bust. I’m referring, of course, to the twice-traded San Diego Padre, Wil Myers.
Now, Wil Myers may not be a masher in the first-base tradition of guys like Frank Thomas, Mark McGwire, and Albert Pujols, but he currently ranks fourth among MLB first basemen in total offensive production. Not only that, Myers is the youngest qualified first baseman in the league this year. Of course, that’s a bit of a back-handed compliment because first base is often the landing spot for older players who can no longer hack it at a position which requires more range. The good news for Myers, though, is that a history of arm problems sent him to first base, not a lack of speed. Still, it’s very much worth noting that, although it feels as though Myers has been around for ages, he’s still just 25 years old — more than a year younger that George Springer!
| 12:31 |
: Chat chat chat!
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| 12:31 |
: what do you make of rhys hoskins? anything there to get excited about?
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| 12:32 |
: It’s certainly more effective than it is pretty — which is why you hear the Paul Goldschmidty nonsense connected to him, they share that — But still a 1B-only profile and he’s hitting in the same park that gave us Matt Rizotti, Darin Ruf, Tagg Bozied….
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| 12:33 |
: He’s not a “no” for me, but when you step back and look at the whole profile, it’s probably not better than a platoon guy.
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| 12:33 |
: I’ll get a first-hand look in about a week and a half, though.
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| 12:33 |
: How much will Willson contreras be playing for the cubs, the rest of the season? Catches 2 of every 5 or more?
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Brian Duensing’s baseball future is tenuous. The 33-year-old southpaw is currently an Oriole, but his time in Baltimore could be short. Signed off the scrap heap a few weeks ago, he’s failed to impress in five outings. He could easily be the odd man out the next time a roster move is made.
Duensing was cast aside by his long-time team over the winter. A member of the Minnesota organization since being drafted out of the University of Nebraska in 2005, Duensing hit the open market when the Twins “opted to go in another direction.” It didn’t come as a shock. He’s never been overpowering, and last year he was more underwhelming than ever. His ERA was 4.25 and his 4.4 strikeout rate was a career low.
Free agency didn’t go as he’d hoped. Quality offers weren’t forthcoming, and opt-out clauses have subsequently become a meaningful part of his life. There’s a chance he will remain an Oriole, but he could just as easily be elsewhere in the not-too-distant future. He might be wearing a new uniform in a new city. He might be at his home in Omaha, with his wife at his side and three toddlers in tow.
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Duensing on first-time free agency and his future: “This was the first time I was a free agent. I was somewhat excited to see what would happen, but it didn’t really pan out like I’d hoped. I ended up signing with Kansas City, a non-roster minor-league deal, and then didn’t make the team out of spring training. I began the season in Omaha. That’s where I’m from, so I was able to live at home with the wife and the kids.
Conventional wisdom dictates that, when signing a free agent to a multi-year deal, the signing team will receive most of the value from that player at the beginning of his contract. Ideally, the team receives a surplus in the early stages of the agreement. But even then, as the player ages and declines, the club is likely to pay more than a the player is worth for the final years.
Given the effects of age-related decline, it was troubling when, after signing a three-year deal as a 37-year-old, Carlos Beltran proceeded to record a poor 2014 campaign. After Beltran began the 2015 season with a terrible April, at least one writer reasonably (foolishly?) wondered if Beltran was finished. He’s done nothing but hit since then.
In Carlos Beltran’s first 14 seasons, from 1998 to 2011, he played in nearly 1,800 games and hit .283/.361/.496, conspiring to produce a career 120 wRC+ as he entered his age-35 season. Then, just when he should have been exhibiting real signs of decline, he recorded a .282/.343/.493 and 127 wRC+ between 2012 and -13 with the Cardinals. His walk rate did decline a bit, but with the general suppression of offense in baseball, his performance relative to the league improved. While his defense no longer represented an asset, he had sufficiently staved off a decline on offense. So it’s not surprising that, when the Yankees gave him three years and $45 million before 2014, they had reason to believe that possessed at least one more good year in him.
It would be a bit melodramatic to call 2014 a disaster for Beltran, but the season didn’t go well. No stranger to a variety of maladies over his career, Beltran ended up on the disabled list for bone spurs in his right elbow in May, and then went on the seven-day DL in July due to a concussion he sustained when a batted ball hit him in practice. He hit .233/.301/.402 on the season, leading only to a 96 wRC+. While not so poor in itself, the battin line was coupled with poor base-running numbers and below-average defense in right field, leaving him with a negative WAR on the season. He had elbow surgery after the during the 2014-15 offseason to relieve the discomfort he was feeling, but the first month of 2015 could not have gone any worse.
Ben and Sam discuss the Diamondbacks’ bench (literally), Johnny Cueto’s varied deliveries, Zack Cozart’s incredible power, the demise of David Wright, Ichiro and Rose, and Kershaw’s unjust walks.
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Earlier this week, we began a position-by-position look at hitter contact quality with a review of the first-base and DH population. Today, we continue to use granular ball-in-play data, such as BIP type frequencies, exit speed and launch angle, to review second basemen.
