Archive for October, 2016

FanGraphs After Dark Chat – 10/18/16

9:05
Paul Swydan: Hi everyone! So sorry I lost track of time!

9:06
Suzanne2: Can you make a Jays fan feel better about the team’s future?

9:07
Paul Swydan: Well, yeah, what’s wrong with the team’s future? They have a good front office, and good players under contract for the future. The whole rotation comes back intact, and low-salaried players like Devon Travis and Roberto Osuna are still there. They still have good bones.

9:07
adam: in the parallel universe that this series goes 7 games, would you start andrew miller in game 7?

9:08
Paul Swydan: No, I want to keep him for higher leverage situations. You start him, and he can only go 2-3 innings, which means you’re really sweating the last 6-7 innings.

9:08
Pete: What would you do if you were Mike Hazen? Blow up the roster and do a total rebuild or try to do some tweaks and keep trying with the same core?

Read the rest of this entry »


It’s Not So Much That the Cubs’ Offense Is Missing

A table:

Playoff Hitting
Team PA OPS
Nationals 197 0.716
Blue Jays 264 0.713
Indians 203 0.694
Dodgers 263 0.679
Red Sox 108 0.655
Giants 192 0.616
Cubs 219 0.613
Rangers 110 0.575
Mets 32 0.354
Orioles 38 0.321

Here are the 10 playoff teams, sorted by playoff OPS. You see that all the figures are fairly low — this is always the case, because hitting is tougher in the playoffs. But at the bottom, the Orioles went away after one game. The Mets went away after one game. The Rangers got swept. Then there are the Cubs! The Cubs rank seventh, and they’re by far the worst among the four teams remaining. Point being, the Cubs haven’t hit much. They’re still in a good position, all things considered, but they haven’t hit much.

So what, right? It’s literally 219 plate appearances. It’s literally six games. That’s practically nothing. I just found a six-game stretch around the turn to September where the Cubs hit equally poorly, and nobody noticed. The easiest possible answer here is to point to the size of the sample. But, these are the playoffs, which means all the details matter. And there’s another factor here, one that makes easy and absolute sense.

Read the rest of this entry »


Aaron Sanchez Will Try to Save the Blue Jays’ Season

A year ago, mentioning Aaron Sanchez and “save” in the same sentence might have been regarded as a commentary on the right hander’s potential future in the closer role. After excelling in the bullpen at the end of 2014, Sanchez moved to the rotation in 2015 and put up a 5.21 FIP in 11 starts, before finding himself back in the bullpen, where he was once again quite good. In 2016, the Toronto Blue Jays again put Sanchez in the rotation, unwilling to give up on a 24-year-old potential ace. Sanchez proved doubters, like myself, wrong and rewarded the Blue Jays with that confidence. Now he’s being asked to keep the Blue Jays’ season alive against former Cy Young Award winner Corey Kluber.

Sanchez’s stuff jumps out. Half the time, he throws a sinker that averages 95 mph. He complements that pitch with a similarly fast four-seamer. Between the two, Sanchez brings mid- to high-90s heat on three-quarters of all his pitches. That velocity and that usage is perhaps what caused some concern about lasting as a starter. Only Bartolo Colon threw a higher percentage of fastballs this season among qualified starters. Since 2011, only Colon, Justin Masterson, Lance Lynn, and Ross Detwiler have navigated a full season of starting while also using their fastballs with such frequency. To throw a fastball that often, it has to be good — and Sanchez’s is very good.

Read the rest of this entry »


Mike Hazen’s First Big Decision

Yesterday, the Diamondbacks introduced Mike Hazen as their new general manager and head of baseball operations, who is taking over for Dave Stewart after a two-year failed experiment in their front office. Hazen was most recently the GM in Boston, serving as Dave Dombrowski’s second-in-command, and has been an integral part of a Red Sox front office that built one of the best young cores in baseball. The Diamondbacks are hoping Hazen will lead them in that direction now, and allow them to build a sustainable winner in Arizona.

But before he can do that, Hazen and his staff will have to determine their course of action this winter, and whether the team is going to try and retool a roster that just lost 93 games or if he’s going to pivot away from the team’s attempt to contend in the short-term in favor of acquiring assets for the long-term. When asked about this at the press conference, Hazen demurred.

“I don’t have a defined view just yet,” Hazen said. “It would be irresponsible for me at this point to sort of say exactly how we’re going to attack the roster.

“We want to bring a championship to this city and state, but we also know that there’s going to be decisions that need to be made. We’ll have more concrete answers on that as we move through the offseason. We’ll see what the landscape is in the marketplace.”

That’s a nifty non-answer, but in reality, it’s also likely the correct one. It doesn’t really make sense to be committing to a certain path on your first day on the job, for one, but also, despite the dumpster fire that was the Diamondbacks 2016 season, it isn’t actually clear what the Diamondbacks should do this winter, and they probably do need to explore both paths.

Read the rest of this entry »


FanGraphs Audio: Dave Cameron, Live from His Car

Episode 691
Dave Cameron is the managing editor of FanGraphs. During this edition of FanGraphs Audio, he discusses the future of the closer role in light of the nearly optimal bullpen usage exhibited during the current postseason, marvels at Javier Baez’s ecstatic combination of talent and creativity, and attempts to explain Clayton Kershaw to people who don’t know better.

This episode of the program either is or isn’t sponsored by SeatGeek, which site removes both the work and also the hassle from the process of shopping for tickets.

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.

You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio after the jump. (Approximately 39 min play time.)

Read the rest of this entry »


The Legal Case for Challenging Chief Wahoo

If Canadian indigenous-rights activist Douglas Cardinal had had his way, the Cleveland Indians would have been legally prohibited from playing Games 3 through 5 of the American League Championship Series in their standard road uniforms. According to a lawsuit filed by Cardinal on Friday in Ontario Superior Court, both Cleveland’s Chief Wahoo mascot as well as the “Indians” team name itself are racially offensive and discriminatory, in violation of Canada’s Human Rights Act (which generally prohibits businesses from “differentiat[ing] adversely” between citizens on the basis of race, gender, religion, or sexual orientation).

Although Judge Thomas McEwen announced on Monday afternoon that he would not be issuing an injunction blocking Cleveland from wearing its normal uniforms during the ALCS, the legal proceedings have nevertheless brought renewed attention to Cleveland’s use of what are, in the minds of many, racially insensitive team insignias.

This raises the question of whether Cleveland’s — or, for that matter, the Atlanta Braves’ — team name or logos are at risk of being successfully contested in the United States. Indeed, considering that a U.S. federal court ruled last year that several trademarks belonging to the National Football League’s Washington Redskins must be cancelled due to their disparaging nature, it is entirely possible — and perhaps even probable — that Cleveland or Atlanta could soon face a trademark challenge of its own in U.S. federal court.

Read the rest of this entry »


August Fagerstrom FanGraphs Chat — 10/18/16

12:02
august fagerstrom: hello!

12:02
august fagerstrom: I now have bagels, so I am ready to begin the chat

12:02
Bork: Hello, friend!

12:02
august fagerstrom: hello, Bork!

12:03
Bork: Is Bauer done for the off-season? That finger looked naaaaaaaaasty.

12:04
august fagerstrom: well, if the Indians advance, they wouldn’t *need* Bauer until Game 3 of the World Series, which is on October 28

Read the rest of this entry »


Trevor Bauer’s Bleeding Finger Was a Blessing in Disguise

As Trevor Bauer walked off the pitching mound at the Rogers Centre and into the visiting dugout in the first inning of Monday’s ALCS Game 3, his right pinky finger bleeding and leaving a trail of blood behind him with each step — like a wounded Hansel in the forest — the home crowd in Toronto erupted into cheer and applause. Some were genuinely clapping out of the good nature of their heart, giving support to the wounded athlete who gave it his all. Some had perhaps more malicious intent, jeering at the outspoken pitcher whose jabs at the Blue Jays fanbase on Twitter have persisted for months. And some were likely just cheering as fans of the Blue Jays, believing their home team’s win expectancy had just risen now that Cleveland’s bullpen had been forced into action following just two outs and four batters.

What that last group of fans might not have realized is that, in a one-game scenario, the introduction of Cleveland’s bullpen into the game actually represented an advantage for the Indians. That the Blue Jays likely had a much better shot at putting up runs by facing Bauer two, or even three times, than enduring a barrage of well-rested Cleveland relievers in four-out spurts for the entire game. That, as far as Game 3 was concerned, Bauer’s bleeding finger was actually a blessing in disguise for the Indians.

Read the rest of this entry »


Contract Crowdsourcing 2016-17: Day 7 of 10

Free agency begins five days after the end of the World Series. As in other recent offseasons, FanGraphs is once again facilitating this offseason a contract-crowdsourcing project, the idea being to harness the wisdom of the crowds to the end of better understanding the giant and large 2016-17 free-agent market.

Below are links to ballots for five of this year’s free agents — all of them starting pitchers, in this case.

Other Players: Pedro Alvarez / Erick Aybar / Jose Bautista / Carlos Beltran / Billy Butler / Rajai Davis / Ian Desmond / Edwin Encarnacion / Dexter Fowler / Carlos Gomez / Matt Holliday / Austin Jackson / Jon Jay / Matt Joyce / Brandon Moss / Mike Napoli / Angel Pagan / Steve Pearce / Wilson Ramos / Colby Rasmus / Josh Reddick / Michael Saunders / Kurt Suzuki / Mark Trumbo / Justin Turner / Chase Utley / Luis Valbuena / Neil Walker / Matt Wieters.

***

Andrew Cashner (Profile)
Some relevant information regarding Cashner:

  • Has averaged 146 IP and 1.7 WAR over last three seasons.
  • Has averaged 2.3 WAR per 200 IP over last three seasons.
  • Recorded a 0.4 WAR in 132.0 IP in 2016.
  • Is projected to record 2.1 WAR per 200 IP**.
  • Is entering his age-30 season.
  • Made $7.2M in 2016, after avoiding arbitration in January.

*That is, a roughly average number of innings for a starting pitcher.
**Prorated version of final updated 2016 depth-chart projections available here.

Click here to estimate years and dollars for Cashner.

Read the rest of this entry »


Effectively Wild Episode 965: NLCS Update

Ben and Sam banter about Zach Britton and Shohei Otani, then discuss Dave Roberts, bullpen management, and the NLCS.