2017 ZiPS Projections – Baltimore Orioles

After having typically appeared in the very famous pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have been released at FanGraphs the past few years. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Baltimore Orioles. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other Projections: Arizona / Atlanta / Boston / Chicago AL / Chicago NL / Cleveland / Detroit / Houston / Kansas City / Los Angeles AL / Los Angeles NL / Milwaukee / Minnesota / New York AL / Miami / St. Louis / San Diego / San Francisco / Seattle / Tampa Bay / Toronto / Washington.

Batters
A few years ago, I experimented idly with a toy stat called Reckless Power (RECK, for short), calculated by dividing isolated slugging (SLG – AVG) by what’s sometimes called isolated patience (OBP – AVG). It identifies players whose power on contact far exceeds their selectivity. To get a sense of the scale, here’s a collection of the top 10 batters by RECK from 2016:

League average is about 2.5. A score of 5.0 or higher typically earns a player a spot among the league’s top 10. Baltimore, one finds, placed two batters in the top 10 this past season. Another, Mark Trumbo, was 16th of 146 qualifiers. The Orioles, as a club, produced the highest RECK score in the majors, at 3.0.

The projections from Dan Szymborski’s computer suggest that Baltimore is likely to compete for that distinction again in 2017. Adam Jones (635 PA, .267/.304/.450, 5.0 RECK) and Jonathan Schoop (530, .264/.297.453, 5.8) are both forecast, essentially, to produce top-10 figures. Manny Machado (646, .289/.349/.511, 3.7) and Mark Trumbo (557, .251/.307/.491, 4.3) would both finish above the 75th percentile given their respective numbers.

In terms of wins and losses, this isn’t particularly illuminating. What it does illustrate, though, is how the Orioles have gone about scoring runs — and how they’ll score runs in 2017. By virtue largely of power on contact, is how.

Pitchers
Baltimore’s pitching staff is constructed unusually. The top five starters are projected to produce roughly nine wins; the top five relievers, about six wins (or about two-thirds the rotation’s mark). By way of reference consider that, in 2016, the average rotation produced roughly 12 total wins; the average bullpen, slightly less than four (or about one-third the rotation’s mark).

This probably isn’t ideal for the regular season. After the triumvirate of Kevin Gausman (176.0 IP, 2.8 zWAR), Dylan Bundy (109.1, 2.1), Chris Tillman (167.0, 1.9), there’s little depth — certainly not the sort one might expect of a championship club. That said, the combination of Zach Britton (64.0, 1.7), Mychal Givens (79.1, 1.4), Brad Brach (74.0, 1.2) in the bullpen rivals the notable relief units of Kansas City’s recent World Series clubs.

Bench/Prospects
Precisely how the bench will be used remains a bit obscure. It’s very possible that both Joey Rickard (360 PA, -0.6 zWAR) and Christian Walker (567, 0.0) will accumulate a fair number of plate appearances in separate outfield platoon roles, although their ZiPS forecasts provide little reason for optimism. The return of Mark Trumbo creates less of an opportunity for Trey Mancini (612, 1.4), although the latter profiles as a strong bench player. Mancini and catcher Chance Sisco (471, 1.1) earn the top win projections among rookie-eligible players.

With regard to the rotation, Baltimore doesn’t currently possess many options for depth. Among the pitchers who could be expected to provide some kind of assistance in that regard, Jed Bradley (99.1 IP, 0.3 zWAR) — acquired from Atlanta by means of waivers — receives the top projection. Logan Verrett (113.1, 0.2), Tyler Wilson (123.1, 0.3), and Mike Wright (129.2, 0.1) are all around, it appears, though none likely to provide something much better than replacement-level innings.

Depth Chart
Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the Orioles, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to enlarge image.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning.

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Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2017. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.05 ERA and the NL having a 3.97 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.