2017 ZiPS Projections – Houston Astros

After having typically appeared in the very famous pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have been released at FanGraphs the past few years. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Houston Astros. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other Projections: Arizona / Chicago NL / San Diego / Toronto / Washington.

Batters
Broadly speaking, the deployment of an average — which is to say, a two-win — player at every spot in a club’s starting lineup will lead to an average group of position players. With that logic in mind, these ZiPS projections offer an encouraging portrait of the 2017 Houston Astros, insofar as two wins represents more or less the floor for the club’s field-playing starters.

The foundation of the offense is marked both by youth and talent: Jose Altuve (696 PA, 5.8 zWAR), Alex Bregman (557, 3.5), Carlos Correa (682, 6.5), and George Springer (590, 3.5) are all 27 or younger. They also constitute the four Houston batters projected to record three or more wins in 2017. Among the starters, ZiPS offers the least optimistic forecasts for Carlos Beltran (521, 1.6) and Yulieski Gurriel (525, 1.6), although even that pair is expected to produce something within a rounding error of two wins.

Pitchers
The initial prognosis for the pitching staff is less impressive, although still entirely acceptable. Starting rotations produced a median figure of approximately 12 WAR collectively in 2016. And while Dan Szymborski is legally permitted to punish anyone guilty of such behavior, if one adds up the rounded win figures for the starting pitchers in the depth-chart image below, he or she arrives at a sum of 13 wins. Left-hander Dallas Keuchel (184.2 IP, 3.5 zWAR) receives the most encouraging projection, although neither Lance McCullers‘ (121.1, 2.8) nor Collin McHugh’s (177.2, 2.9) forecasts represent a marked step down — and McCullers is the best of that triumvirate on a per-inning basis.

As for the bullpen, the most active members of the 2016 edition return in 2017, which ought to benefit the club. While last year’s rated as merely an average group by win probability added, that was largely a result of poor timing. Houston relievers recorded the second-best park-adjusted FIP and third-best WAR in the league last year. They seem prepared to approximate that level of production in 2017. Ken Giles (70.0 IP, 75 ERA-, 1.1 zWAR) receives the top projection, both by FIP and by WAR, among the club’s relievers.

Bench/Prospects
It’s not immediately clear how manager A.J. Hinch will deal with the club’s outfield corners, although it stands to reason that he’ll employ at least one platoon, probably with Nori Aoki (496 PA, 0.7 zWAR) and Jake Marisnick (430, 1.2). Among prospects, outfielder Derek Fisher (572, 1.3) and catcher Garrett Stubbs (313, 1.4) appear most capabale of offering immediate help at the major-league level.

While he doesn’t seem likely to begin the season as part of the rotation, right-hander Joe Musgrove (128.0 IP, 1.3 zWAR) is a candidate to pitch competent innings if called upon. Mike Hauschild (127.2, 1.1) also seemed like a candidate to do that, although he’s a member of the Rangers now, having been selected by the latter club in the Rule 5 draft just this morning.

Depth Chart
Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the Astros, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to enlarge image.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning.

***

***

***

***

***

***

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2017. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.05 ERA and the NL having a 3.97 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.