2017 ZiPS Projections – Texas Rangers

After having typically appeared in the very famous pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have been released at FanGraphs the past few years. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Texas Rangers. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other Projections: Arizona / Atlanta / Baltimore / Boston / Chicago AL / Chicago NL / Cleveland / Detroit / Houston / Kansas City / Los Angeles AL / Los Angeles NL / Milwaukee / Minnesota / New York AL / Miami / Oakland / Pittsburgh / St. Louis / San Diego / San Francisco / Seattle / Tampa Bay / Toronto / Washington.

Batters
The Texas Rangers added catcher Jonathan Lucroy (510 PA, 3.7 zWAR) at the trade deadline last year. A brief examination of the projections below reveals that Lucroy is forecast to produce more wins than any other Rangers field player in 2017. This would seem to be a harbinger of good things for Texas: a club that won its division by nine games just a year ago, and which has retained basically all its principal characters from the previous season, will now benefit from an even better principal character.

None of that is actually false. What that line of reasoning fails to acknowledge, however, is that the 2016 edition of the Texas Rangers was very likely the most fortunate club in the majors. On the one hand, they won 95 games. On the other, the salient indicators — in this case, represented by BaseRuns — suggest they played more like an 82-win club.

Unsurprisingly, the ZiPS projections here seem to call for something more like an average team than an elite one. Only three starting field players besides Lucroy receive a forecast for more than two wins. Three positions — first base, left field, and right field — are expected to contribute just a single win each.

Pitchers
None of the teams covered thus far in this series of ZiPS projection posts has featured such an imbalance in its starting rotation as this Texas club. Cole Hamels (190.2 IP, 4.1 zWAR) and Yu Darvish (139.1, 3.2) are expected to account for more than seven wins in 2017. That’s quite good. Among the other likely members of the Rangers’ Opening Day rotation, however, only Martin Perez (132.2, 1.4) exceeds even the one-win mark.

Unlike the rotation, the bullpen is an almost flawless case study in parity. Sam Dyson (70.1 IP, 0.9 zWAR) is the nominal relief ace, but all five pitchers included in the depth-chart image below are expected to record an ERA between 20% and 24% lower (which is to say, better) than league average.

Bench/Prospects
Among those players omitted from the depth chart below, Matt Duffy (518 PA, 1.4 zWAR) earns the top wins projection. Unfortunately, he’s now employed by the Chiba Lotte Marines. Outfielder Jared Hoying (481, 1.1) is also 27, however, and also retains his rookie eligibility and also appears capable of functioning as a competent bench player right now.

ZiPS doesn’t account for the precise nature of Tyson Ross’s (123.0 IP, 1.7 zWAR) injury, only the time he’s missed because of it. Regardless, he earns one of the top forecasts among all the club’s starters. Rule 5 pick Mike Hauschild (127.0, 1.3) is 27 and has never appeared at the major-league level. Even so, his projection qualifies him as a possible asset in the Rangers’ rotation.

Depth Chart
Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the Rangers, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to enlarge image.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning.

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Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2017. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.05 ERA and the NL having a 3.97 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.