Archive for June, 2017

NERD Game Scores for June 22, 2017

Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by sabermetric forefather Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game.

How are they calculated? Haphazardly, is how. An explanation of the components and formulae which produce these NERD scores is available here. All objections to the numbers here are probably justified, on account of how this entire endeavor is absurd.

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Most Highly Rated Game
Arizona at Colorado | 15:10 ET
Godley (50.0 IP, 77 xFIP-) vs. Senzatela (83.1 IP, 100 xFIP-)
Per the author’s haphazard calculations, this D-backs and Rockies game is the day’s most promising. Neither club has been particularly well acquitted by these so-called NERD scores over the past few years. This season, however, has been different. Arizona has benefited from improbable success on the base paths. Colorado, for their part, have been one of the league’s top defensive clubs — led, in particular, by Nolan Arenado in that effort. Perhaps most notably, both teams feature nearly a 50% chance of making the divisional series this year.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Arizona Radio.

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Freddie Freeman Might As Well Play Third Base

It’s difficult to overstate how much Freddie Freeman means to the Braves. He is, at present, the face of the franchise, and rather than trade Freeman, his general manager would sooner give his right arm. It’s not just that Freeman’s the best player on the Braves — Freeman is the Braves, for all intents and purposes. Although he isn’t Mike Trout, he’s the Braves’ Mike Trout, and the Angels aren’t going to trade Mike Trout. They’re going to cherish him, feature him, build around him, promote the hell out of him. The Braves have been going through a difficult stage. Freeman’s helped to keep them marketable.

Freeman’s great. He’s gotten some amount of MVP support in three separate years. He’s long been firmly entrenched as the Braves’ everyday first baseman, and there was never really any question about that. That is, until now. As soon as Freeman got injured, the team dealt for Matt Adams. Adams started to hit well almost immediately. Now it looks like a healthy Freeman could play third base in order to keep Adams in the lineup. What’s even weirder is, I think it makes sense?

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FanGraphs Audio: Dayn Perry’s Public Testimony

Episode 750
Dayn Perry is a contributor to CBS Sports’ Eye on Baseball and the author of three books — one of them not very miserable. He’s also the immodest guest on this edition of FanGraphs Audio.

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Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.

You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio after the jump. (Approximately 1 hr 10 min play time.)

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Effectively Wild Episode 1074: Time is a Flat Cycle

EWFI

Ben Lindbergh and Jeff Sullivan have an only slightly outdated discussion of Freddie Freeman’s potential position change and a Coors Field scoreboard message, then answer listener emails about a ground-rule-double derby, an amateur GM taking over a team, where pitcher mechanics come from, what writers root for, how to tell when a new metric makes sense, Jake Arrieta’s free agency, hitters who get plunked more often than they walk, a different way to charge the mound, the predictive power of foul balls, how to pick a favorite team, whether Aaron Judge will be a trailblazer, the relationship between jams and rallies, and more.

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Eric Thames Hasn’t Been Awesome

Here’s an advertisement I saw while reading an article earlier this morning:

I know how internet advertising works. I know it doesn’t matter that I saw that ad while reading an article that had nothing to do with sports. The internet knows I spend a lot of time on baseball websites. Hence, a baseball ad. But the specific ad itself doesn’t know that I’ve been interested in Eric Thames. That ad was prepped with Thames in the middle of it. It wasn’t prepped before the start of the season — it wouldn’t have made sense to feature Thames, or really any Brewer. This ad is a reflection of how well Thames started the year. It’s a reflection of how quickly he achieved broad recognition. Eric Thames was selected to help promote MLB.tv. Not Mike Trout. Not Bryce Harper. Eric Thames.

Thames’ start was absolutely incredible. He hit the ground sprinting, and I’m sure you remember all the coverage he was given. He was, and still is, a heck of a story. The Brewers are still happy to have him. But it’s worth pointing out that Thames hasn’t been the same. For whatever reason, he’s slipped into a slump.

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It’s Time For the Orioles to Rebuild

Let us first pause to reflect on what the Orioles have accomplished in recent history.

As a small fish in the largest and richest on ponds, they have won more games than any other team in the AL East since 2012. The Orioles have advanced to the postseason three times in the last five years. They have consistently beat the pre-season expectations of projection systems at FanGraphs and elsewhere. And while they’re not out of the race yet, one has to wonder if this is the year the Orioles need to take a step backwards. Read the rest of this entry »


Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 6/21/17

2:46
Dan Szymborski: Finally able to get into Jotcast!

2:47
Dan Szymborski: It wasn’t taking my password on this PC and it took me awhile to recover it!  lol

2:47
Dan Szymborski: Is anyone still here?

2:47
Jeff: Hi Dan, big fan here. Are the Mets doomed?

2:47
Dan Szymborski: Mildly.   They seem uninterested in flippin the script.

2:47
jon: Is Max Scherzer going to No-Hit the Marlins today?

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Andrew McCutchen Is Back

After a five-year run as one of the best players in baseball, Andrew McCutchen put up the worst year of his career in 2016. His strikeouts went up, his power and BABIP went down, and his defense was bad enough to finally precipitate a move out of center field. All told, McCutchen produced just +0.7 WAR last year, and when the team hung a superstar asking price on him in trades over the winter, they didn’t find anyone willing to meet their demands.

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Dave Cameron FanGraphs Chat – 6/21/17

12:01
Dave Cameron: Happy Wednesday, everyone.

12:01
Dave Cameron: Or pre-ACL reconstruction day for me. This is my last day with mobility for a while.

12:02
Dave Cameron: So let’s talk about players whose knees aren’t about to get cut open.

12:02
Blah: Dave, The baseballs are juiced/changed right? I don’t think there is even a debate anymore.

12:02
Dave Cameron: There’s definitely still a debate. There’s circumstantial evidence that suggests the ball is different now, but it isn’t a fair reading of the evidence to suggest we’ve removed all doubt.

12:03
Dave Cameron: I think the ball probably is different. It makes the most sense. But we don’t *know*.

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2017 Top NL Contact Survivors

Hitters are generating thunderous contact at a record clip, with pitchers in both leagues under siege. Last week, we examined the ERA-qualifying AL starting pitchers who have been the best at limiting damage, looking at their underlying batted-ball allowed data to see whether their performances are real. Today, we avert our gaze toward qualifying NL starting pitchers.

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