Archive for August, 2017

Lars Anderson Discovers Japan, Part 2

On Wednesday, we ran Part 1 of what is planned as a three-part series chronicling Lars Anderson’s experiences in Japan. The 29-year-old adventure-seeker — a former top prospect in the Red Sox organization — is playing for the Kochi Fighting Dogs, an independent team in the Shikoku Island League. Here is Part 2.

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Jose Altuve’s Historic July and His MVP Momentum

Jose Altuve is a conventional contender for the MVP award, but at the same time, he really isn’t. As the best player on the best team in the American League — by a fairly large margin — Altuve checks off the two biggest boxes some voters use when filling out the ballot. He’s also a bit non-traditional, as he doesn’t hit a whole lot of homers or drive a ton of runners in. While he doesn’t have the typical power numbers of an MVP-winner, his overall line and overall value are immense, and he just pulled off one of the best hitting months of the last half-decade.

In the month of July, Jose Altuve hit .485/.523/.727, good for a wRC+ of 242, highest for any player in a month this season with a minimum of 80 plate appearances. Since 2002, the only player with a higher batting average in a month was Ivan Rodriguez, who hit .500 back in June of 2004.

We know that batting average has its flaws, and it might seem disappointing to find out Altuve’s .523 OBP only ranks 36th in any month since 2002. However, 13 of those months are courtesy of Barry Bonds. When we look at Altuve’s overall hitting numbers and account for park and era, that 242 wRC+ ranks 23rd, with Barry Bonds taking the top four slots and one more in the top-15. Since 2012, here are the best 11 months by a hitter:

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We Need to Talk About Rafael Devers

Last night, Rafael Devers played his eighth game in the Major Leagues since being called up to fix Boston’s third base problem. In that eighth game, he recorded his 13th hit. It looked like this.

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Mid-Season Park Factor Update

Exactly two months ago, I posted my first in-season BIP-based park factor update. BIP-based, you say? Basically, I’ve taken every batted ball hit in every park, applied major league average production for its exit speed/launch angle bucket, incorporated run values, and scaled the resulting projected production to an average of 100. It’s now time for midseason update #2, as of the All Star break.

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Eno Sarris Baseball Chat — 8/3/17

12:31
Eno Sarris: Moving Day! I’m very happy to be here for a bit.

12:02
Eno Sarris: Starbucks Wi-Fi. Moving Day. Let’s do this.

12:02
Steve: Zack Godley is a top _____ arm going into 2018.

12:02
Eno Sarris: SP2 in most leagues. 30-40.

12:02
ST Tiger Fan: Do you prefer dynasty or redraft leagues?

12:03
Eno Sarris: Dynasty. Churn and burn is not super fun to me.

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Frank Herrmann on Pitching in Japan

Frank Herrmann is acclimating well to baseball in Japan. In his first season in NPB, the 33-year-old Harvard alum has a 2.08 ERA, and is averaging better than a strikeout per inning, in 36 relief outings for the Rakuten Golden Eagles.Prior to taking his talents to another continent, Herrmann appeared in 36 games with the Cleveland Indians and Philadelphia Phillies over parts of four MLB seasons.

Herrmann shared his thoughts on several facets of the NPB experience — and compared one of his Rakuten teammates to Masahiro Tanaka — earlier this week.

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Summary of Free Agent Market Trends

During this series of articles that have comprised my FanGraphs Residency, I have updated my analysis of the free-agent market that I last researched over three years ago. The vast majority of my new findings have suggested that teams have gotten smarter about spending in line with true player talent, all the while spending roughly the same share of league revenue as they were spending before.

Perhaps my biggest finding is that the OPP Premium has declined. Teams used to receive significantly less WAR for signing other team’s players as they did for re-signing their own players, and this seemed largely related to private information that teams knew about their own players. As teams have become more aware of this phenomenon, the evidence suggests that they have become more careful and have driven up the price of their own players while being more reluctant to sign players on other teams.

This is especially true for pitchers, who used to have the largest OPP Premium. Hitters appear to have actually increased their OPP Premium, which is probably more related to a handful of expensive players who did not pan out rather than teams collectively getting sloppier about signing hitters.
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Danny Salazar’s New Approach

The man with a 96 mph fastball and devastating changeup looks more himself these days. Danny Salazar is back up with the Indians, dealing, and was even name-checked by his General Manager as a deadline acquisition that should make their rotation hum this postseason. It could just be two good starts, but his pitching mix is radically changed. And though that change looks drastic, the driver of change might actually be more subtle.

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Lars Anderson Discovers Japan

If you read this past Sunday’s notes column, you know that Lars Anderson is playing for an independent league team in Japan. The adventure-seeking former big-leaguer — and his Kochi Fighting Dogs teammate Manny Ramirez —were featured prominently. I concluded the segment by saying that we’d hear more from Anderson about his experiences playing baseball on the other side of the world in the near future.

As promised, here is the first installment of Lars Anderson Discovers Japan.

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Masahiro Tanaka’s Daylight Problem

Is there anyone having a weirder season than Masahiro Tanaka? Dude is in the top fifteen when it comes to strikeouts minus walks, and yet he’s got an ERA over five. He’s been better recently! And he’s done it by… refusing to throw fastballs. Despite this wrinkle, he’s still giving up nearly two home runs per game. We haven’t even gotten to the weird day/night splits, but they’re part of the story, too. Weird.

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