Archive for April, 2018

The Law of the Basebrawler

Rougned Odor is the second baseman for the Texas Rangers. You read FanGraphs, you know that. Odor has good power, plays decent defense, and really ought to learn to take a walk.

Rougned Odor also has a mean right hook.

The man on the receiving end of Odor’s punching prowess, Jose Bautista, is currently out of work. That means he needs something to do. And since idle hands are the devil’s playground, let’s give Jose that something.

Let’s have Jose Bautista sue Rougned Odor for battery.

Now, we already know what battery is from our discussion of beanballs, but let’s refresh our memories just to make sure. Battery is a (1) harmful bodily contact, (2) with intent to cause that bodily contact, and (3) without consent. Assault is apprehension of that intentional harmful bodily contact. In other words, actual physical contact isn’t necessary for an assault charge, whereas it is necessary to qualify as battery. Some people just call assault “attempted battery,” but that’s not exactly right; it’s a little more complicated than that. Assault and battery vary a bit from state to state and are creatures of state law like this one.

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Yasmany Tomas Is the Most Expensive Minor Leaguer

Once regarded as a possible third-base option for Arizona, Tomas has been a defensive liability.
(Photo: Keith Allison)

Don’t expect to see Yasmany Tomas at Chase Field anytime soon. The 27-year-old Cuban slugger was placed on outright waivers on Saturday, removing him from the Diamondbacks’ 40-man roster even as starting right fielder Steven Souza Jr. is sidelined for at least the first month of the season. The waiver move only further underscores the mistake the Diamondbacks made in signing Tomas to a six-year, $68.5 million contract in December 2014, a deal that has cost the team far more than money. He’s become the opposite of the gift that keeps on giving.

Tomas played in just 47 games for the Diamondbacks last year, hitting .241/.294/.464 with eight homers, an 89 wRC+, and 0.1 WAR before being sidelined by a groin injury that eventually required two surgeries, first in August and again in December. The additions of Souza via trade and Jarrod Dyson via free agency made clear at the outset of spring training that Tomas wasn’t guaranteed a starting job. Even with Souza’s pectoral strain, the Diamondbacks optioned Tomas to Triple-A Reno on March 25, and Sunday’s move now allows them to put that 40-man spot to better use. Given that he’s owed around $46 million through 2020, Tomas is unlikely to be claimed on waivers. Refusing an outright assignment and opting for free agency would void the remainder of his deal.

With the move, Tomas has become the game’s most expensive minor leaguer, making $10 million in salary plus another $3.5 million in the final installment of his signing bonus. You don’t see that every day, and for evidence how far out of sight and out of mind such a player can become, one need look only to the man he supplanted for that dubious title, countryman Rusney Castillo. The Red Sox signed Castillo to a seven-year, $72.5 million contract in August 2014. He recorded just an 83 wRC+ in 337 plate appearances spread over 2014-16 before the Sox outrighted him off their 40-man roster in June 2016. Now he’s buried in Triple-A — in part because adding him back would push them even further over the luxury-tax threshold. The Diamondbacks don’t have to worry about going over the $197 million threshold, but their $131.5 million Opening Day payroll nonetheless set a franchise record.

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The Pirates’ Way in the Era of Launch

BRADENTON, Fla. — The first pitch of the 2018 season was a home run. More and more hitters seem to have the intent to get the ball in the air. We’ve heard about more and more swing-change stories this spring. What can pitchers do to counteract the movement? I know many pitchers and coaches are thinking about that question.

I traveled to Pirates camp late this spring because in part because I am still familiar with a number of people within the club from my time on the beat in Pittsburgh, but also because so much has changed in the game — and in their clubhouse — since the last time I covered a Pirates’ game in September of 2016.

Pittsburgh, of course, made three consecutive playoff appearances from 2013 to -15. While those clubs featured a collection of talented players, the teams was also notable for its run-prevention plan. In each of those three seasons, the team led the majors in ground-ball rate, compiling a three-year mark of 51.5%. They allowed the fewest home runs (339) over that three-year period, as well.

The Pirates made a point either of acquiring pitchers with quality sinking fastballs or developing those sinkers internally. The club led baseball in sinker usage during that three-year span, targeting the lower part of the zone. The Pirates had built a philosophy around the pitch: to pound batters inside to create discomfort and weaker swings. The Pirates executed their philosophy well: they led baseball in hit batters (233), collateral damage from pitching inside.

Buc-ing the Trends
Season GB% HR ERA- HR/FB
2013 52.5% 101 91 8.9%
2014 50.5% 128 99 10.3%
2015 50.4% 110 84 9.4%
2016 46.9% 180 103 13.0%
2017 45.2% 182 99 12.9%

Of course, much has changed — and changed quickly — since that three-year window.

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Travis Sawchik FanGraphs Chat

12:03
Travis Sawchik: Greetings!

12:03
Travis Sawchik: Since we last spoke, real baseball games have been played

12:04
Travis Sawchik: I think we are all feeling better …

12:04
TMW: Miguel Sano’s hands look higher again like they were in 2016. K rates back this up (8K in 14PA). He’s gotten two hits (HRs) but was pretty late on one of them. Am I imagining it?

12:05
Travis Sawchik: I will have to take a look, but for Sano to truly be an offensive force he needs to get those K rates down a few ticks

12:05
James: Could Altuve and Correa be the best middle infield combo ever?

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MLB Opening Day Payrolls Down from 2017

Now that real baseball has finally started, we are very likely going to spend a lot more time here at FanGraphs discussing the game on the field. That’s a very good thing for all of us who love the sport. Before wading too deeply into the new season, however, let’s take one more look at how this offseason affected payrolls.

This past winter was an unusual one, with a number of free agents receiving significantly less than expected, and players and teams holding out for contracts all the way until the season’s start. Most of our pieces contained a general caveat that we would need to wait until all players had signed to really determine the effects of this offseason. I even spent some time wondering if we would have to wait until after next offseason to determine the longer-term effects of this past winter.

As we have now reached Opening Day, we have the opportunity to look at current payrolls and compare them to the same point last year. Here’s where we sit on Opening Day, per Cot’s Contracts.

The Boston Red Sox are well out in front of all teams, followed by the San Francisco Giants, Los Angeles Dodgers, Chicago Cubs, and Washington Nationals. Notable by their omission, the New York Yankees don’t appear among the top five. This is notable for several reasons.

  • The Yankees haven’t placed outside the top three in MLB payroll since 1992, the year Marlins owner Derek Jeter was drafted. Melido Perez and Danny Tartabull were the team’s top-two players.
  • The Yankees haven’t been outside the top two in MLB payroll since 1994, the last time a baseball season ended without a World Series.
  • The last time the franchise had an Opening Day payroll lower than $167 million before this season was 2003, before Alex Rodriguez had ever played a game for the club.

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Top 18 Prospects: New York Mets

Below is an analysis of the prospects in the farm system of the New York Mets. Scouting reports are compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as from our own (both Eric Longenhagen’s and Kiley McDaniel’s) observations. For more information on the 20-80 scouting scale by which all of our prospect content is governed you can click here. For further explanation of the merits and drawbacks of Future Value, read this.

Mets Top Prospects
Rk Name Age High Level Position ETA FV
1 David Peterson 22 R LHP 2019 50
2 Andres Gimenez 19 A SS 2020 45
3 Tomas Nido 23 AA C 2018 45
4 Ronny Mauricio 16 R SS 2023 45
5 Justin Dunn 22 A+ RHP 2019 45
6 Mark Vientos 18 R 3B 2022 45
7 Peter Alonso 22 AA 1B 2019 45
8 Desmond Lindsay 21 A OF 2020 45
9 Luis Guillorme 23 AA UTIL 2018 45
10 Thomas Szapucki 21 A LHP 2021 40
11 Chris Flexen 23 MLB RHP 2018 40
12 Marcos Molina 23 R RHP 2018 40
13 Tony Dibrell 22 A- RHP 2020 40
14 Anthony Kay 23 R LHP 2021 40
15 Gerson Bautista 22 A+ RHP 2019 40
16 Adrian Hernandez 17 R OF 2022 40
17 Gavin Cecchini 24 MLB 2B 2018 40
18 Jamie Callahan 23 MLB RHP 2018 40

50 FV Prospects

Drafted: 1st Round, 2017 from Oregon
Age 22 Height 6’6 Weight 240 Bat/Throw L/L
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Curveball Changeup Command
55/55 50/55 40/45 50/55 45/55

Peterson had a great junior year at Oregon in 2017, showing four good pitches and throwing more strikes than is typical for a pitcher his size. He sits 90-92 with heavy sink, will touch 95, and his fastball plays up because of good extension. He made heavy use of a slider that garners mixed reviews depending on if you’re talking to a scout (who consider it a 50/55) or someone looking at a Trackman readout (40/45), but it missed Pac-12 bats and should be fine even if it doesn’t spin a whole lot.

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Sunday Notes: Ian Happ Had to Adjust to High Heat

Ian Happ had a solid rookie season with the Chicago Cubs in 2017. The switch-hitting outfielder slashed .253/.328/.514 and went deep 24 times in 413 plate appearances. He learned a lot of lessons along the way, and they began early with an influx of high heaters.

“I was pretty successful in the first week or two,” said Happ, who logged 10 hits in his first 28 big-league at bats. “Then I started seeing a lot of elevated four-seamers. It took me a long time to figure out how to hit that pitch.”

The method he adopted was antithetical to the launch-angle swing.

“Belt-high four-seam fastballs, especially when guys have ride, or something that looks like it’s jumping at you… that’s a pitch where you need to be able to adjust your swing plane in oder to handle it,” explained Happ. “You have to be flatter. You almost have to be above the baseball and attacking with a downward plane. That’s the only way to be direct and get on that pitch, which is different than hitting an off-speed pitch or something low in the zone where you can kind of create a little more lift.” Read the rest of this entry »