2019 Top 100 Prospects Chat

12:02

Eric A Longenhagen: Hi there, everyone. By now you probably know where the top 130 list is, so let’s get right to this. Kiley will be along shortly.

12:02

Jared: Who are some potential high leverage RP’s in the upper minors, with big stuff? Eric (not sure who’s doing the chat) gave me a good list last year at this time that included Jose Alvarado.

12:03

Eric A Longenhagen: That list you’re referring to was last year’s Picks to Click article, and this year’s version of it drops tomorrow.

12:03

Jackson: Swaggerty: is it his defense that puts him so high? Highest ranking I’ve seen from a publication.

12:04

Eric A Longenhagen: CF with speed and power, his tools belong there. You could argue the swing issues should force him down toward the other power/speed CFs with contact issues, but whose bat are you betting on improving, the new guy or someone like Monte Harrison who hasn’t made much progress over several years?

12:04

Jim Bob Cooter: Why you guys so down on Franklin Perez? Is a lat injury now considered serious or something?

12:05

Eric A Longenhagen: Not on it’s own, but that isn’t exactly the only injury Perez has had and it isn’t as if he’s got #2 starter stuff and belong on there anyway. Healthy Perez is probably just a 50.

12:06

Jackson: Yordan Alvarez didn’t rank after being high in your mid season list. What sorcery did Keith Law whisper in Eric’s ear? But for real, that’s a huge swing. What do you see now that you didn’t eight months ago.

12:08

Eric A Longenhagen: We re-shuffled last year’s final update a bit and sent it around to teams for feedback and they almost all said to move him down, that they had him in as a DH-only.

12:08

Nicky: Thanks for your work. Love the NotKATOHGraphs. Remembering the bust rate for pitchers is frightening.

12:09

Eric A Longenhagen: Thanks, I consider those more a conceptual work in progress that needs refinement rather than a finished product, but I do think it’s useful to explain that, even within the same FV tier, these guys have varied possible outcomes. And I think the best way to show it is visually.

12:10

Eric A Longenhagen: Somewhere on my phone I have the initial cocktail napkin drawing of the bar graph that I sent to Kiley. It’s like two years old. Sean kicks ass and may it come to life.

12:10

Cosmo: More likely to crack the top 25 next season: Ronny Mauricio or Oneil Cruz?

12:10

Eric A Longenhagen: I’ll say Cruz.

12:10

Carl: Which farm systems are poised to help their major league teams to a greater degree than prospect rankings would indicate? And why are the Brewers among them?

12:12

Eric A Longenhagen: Like this year? Yeah I could see Milwaukee. St. Louis is the first that came to mind, though.

12:14

Walter Sobchak: Which prospect would get the biggest FV bump if fences were moved in by 5 feet in all ballparks?

12:15

Eric A Longenhagen: That’s probably an Eli-Ben Porat question since he’s good at doing batted ball distance stuff

12:15

Jeb: The value of a 50FV prospect is more than $5M. So in the case of Jasson D, why weren’t the Yankees outbid? Others perhaps don’t think he is a 50? Yankees were willing to commit $5M when he was less than a 50? Something else?

12:16

Eric A Longenhagen: Pool space is hard-capped, it’s not easy to just outspend when someone blows most/all of their pool on one guy.

12:16

Kiley McDaniel: Kiley has arrived!

12:17

Bubbles: Is Kansas City’s lack of representation in the Top 100 just a matter of a lot of talent with upside that you’re not quite ready to make that jump with, or a lot of high floor/low ceiling types?

12:18

Eric A Longenhagen: They just have a lot of high probability or boom/bust 45 FVs types. Like, a lot. Their system isn’t bad just because none of their guys are on here. We had Melendez around 70 on initial drafts and feedback said to move him down/off because of the K’s.

12:18

Jay: Is the Kyle Hendricks comp looking more and more realistic for Paddack?

12:18

Eric A Longenhagen: No, Paddack’s fastball is much harder.

12:19

Baloney Bologna: The profile of the Albies, Brujan… Marcano potentially type seems to be one that has flown under the radar… until the last couple of years. Any thoughts on why prospects with that profile tend to pop up out of a relative nowhere?

12:20

Kiley McDaniel: Well, traditionally smaller guys have lesser tools and no power and there haven’t been many that have been All-Star caliber players. With various advancements like bats, ball, swings, strength training, etc. it gives them a chance to become real players. Probably also doesn’t hurt to have shorter levers when everyone is throwing 95

12:20

DJ Tanner: With all the hype on Marco Luciano, even though he is not on this list, is it basically he needs to hit a ball in a pro league consistently and he immediately jumps on?

12:20

Eric A Longenhagen: I just wanna see more of him at shortstop to be confident he stays there, because the int’l amateur side didn’t think he would. He’ll be a 45+ FV on the Giants list.

12:21

Kiermaier’s Piercing Green Eyes: Does the announcement that McKay will now be on a six day schedule with 1 pitching, 4 DH, one off change anything for him?

12:22

Kiley McDaniel: Not really, we wrote week ago in his report that it felt like an Ohtani-type outcome where he’s a rotation starter with a DH fit. If he can hit those 60 hit/power projections from the draft, he wouldn’t be much worse than Ohtani.

12:22

The Kid: What should we make of the super low spin rate on Ian Anderson’s curveball? Will it appear more hittable as he climbs the minors. Genuinely curious as is well below breaking ball spin rates of most major leaguers/top prospects.

12:22

Eric A Longenhagen: I wouldn’t worry about it too much. It’s been a well-regarded pitch, visually, for his entire career and it is effective against hitters. He may be a high spin-efficiency guy and it has tumble because of that. We really don’t know.

12:23

Zihuatanejo: There seems to be a lot of volatility in projections for Verdugo.  Is the main issue for him power projection or something else?

12:24

Jim Bob Cooter: So JB Bukauskas is ranked nearly 40 spots lower than Corbin Martin despite having better stuff (literally) across the board and the same command grade? I don’t get it

12:24

Eric A Longenhagen: How confident are you that Buk’s stuff holds with a starter’s workload the way Martin’s does? His stuff was down late during his junior year at UNC, his delivery is more violent. It’s a confidence issue, not stuff.

12:24

Kiley McDaniel: I think most scouts/analysts have him as about the same player going forward — a right fielder than can fill in for CF in short stretches, raw power but more contact-based doubles guy — but we’ve heard for years the makeup is below average and shaded him down for that reason in the past, we’re just shading even more now that sources are more insistent that it could impact him reaching his potential and looking to other Dodgers prospects in deals. There’s a reason he wasn’t mentioned in the Realmuto stuff and Ruiz, Smith, May and Lux were.

12:25

Walter Sobchak: Does the likely addition of 15 new DH jobs meaningfully affect the way in which bat-only plodders will be evaluated?

12:25

Eric A Longenhagen: Yes and we actually got feedback that was like, “move down Alonso, Calhoun, Alvarez, etc UNLESS the universal DH is implemented.”

12:25

Kiley McDaniel: and Josh Naylor may be the biggest beneficiary since SD likes him and Hosmer ain’t going anywhere

12:26

Kiley McDaniel: and Naylor is like a 30 left fielder

12:26

Frank Menechino: In the Sean Murphy write-up: “his swing has been very compact, relying on Murphy’s raw strength rather than efficient biomechanical movement.” I always thought a compact swing meant an efficient one, as in short to the ball with your bat path…

12:27

Kiley McDaniel: Yes, this is ideal. If you are strong enough and/or have enough natural bat speed to create power with out big separation/hand load, you’re in the best spot to hit for average and power

12:27

Walter Sobchak: I love my parents. They came to visit for Christmas, and we had a lovely week. I think I might have been more excited for prospect week. Thanks guys.

12:28

Walter Sobchak: The Monstars just landed on Earth. Instead of the Loony Tunes, they demand to play basketball against a team from the Fangraphs top 100ish prospects. Who are our starters?

12:28

Eric A Longenhagen: Monte Harrison, Corbin Martin, MacKenzie Gore, Matt Manning, Jo Adell

12:29

Tom Brady Anderson: I see Shed Long most recently listed as a 50 FV — any reason he didn’t make today’s list?

12:29

Kiley McDaniel: I’d include AJ Puk in that hoops team and probably Kelenic as the 6th man to come in and maybe throw a few elbows

12:30

Eric A Longenhagen: we seem to have had a coding issue that omitted Shed and Tony Santillan, will fix after the chat. They were both 50 FVs on the Reds list, so clearly they should be on here.

12:30

Kretin: Eric and Kiley, thanks for all you do! You had Jose Suarez ranked higher than Griffin Canning. What were your thoughts behind this? Is Canning’s medical history holding him back from ranking higher?

12:30

Eric A Longenhagen: No we just love Suarez

12:30

Cole : How close was Jose Soriano to top 100 consideration?

12:31

Eric A Longenhagen: Will be a 45 FV, same as last year.

12:31

@Holes_in_my_Sox: Love the work and the new setup, probably the most in depth list I’ve seen. Dustin May: with what looks like a 15% chance for 70+ FV is this mainly dependent on the continued development of his slider or a combination of all the other pitches?

12:31

Kiley McDaniel: Really just keep doing what he’s doing, stay healthy and make the incremental improvements at each level. It’s not the same as Walker Buehler, but the impact could be comparable

12:32

Enrique: Will any future articles/podcasts highlight the prospects that you guys differ most on?   Any thought given to releasing your individual lists?

12:32

Eric A Longenhagen: That sounds like literally 200% more work

12:32

Sam: Just in terms of ceiling, because this can be apples to oranges, but how does Jasson Dominguez compare to former top IFA’s in recent years?

12:33

Kiley McDaniel: I can look to Eric on this, too. I think Wander Franco is the only other 50 FV J2 guys before he played a pro game in recent memory, right?

12:33

Kiley McDaniel: Maitan was close, I bet Sano might have been

12:33

Kiley McDaniel: Gary Sanchez was probably a 45/45+

12:34

Kiley McDaniel: I think Vlad was a 45 b/c of the frame and we needed to see performance, but then he made a huge jump after his pro debut

12:35

Weenie: Approximately how many of the top 130 have you guys seen play in person?

12:35

Eric A Longenhagen: just counted 113

12:35

Yogi: Is catcher back? Been so long since a group of young well rounded catchers have came up

12:35

Eric A Longenhagen: yes

12:35

Keith: How is Brady Singer not on this list? Obviously clueless people putting together this list.

12:36

Weenie: You guys use 35+, 40+, and 45+, but your 46-130 ranked guys are all 50’s. Have you ever considered using a 50+ for the top guys in that group?

12:36

Kiley McDaniel: Thanks for reading! You can go over here and see he was the top 45+ in the draft and I think he’ll be a 50 when we see how he integrates his changeup into games. So literally as close as you can be. https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2018-mlb-draft?sort=-1,1…

12:36

Eric A Longenhagen: Weenie: Yeah but we figured the distribution graphs get at what the + is trying to convey

12:36

YO: How was Lux able to have such great results last year with just a current 25 on his hit tool?

12:38

Eric A Longenhagen: present hit tools are standardized: Advanced teens are a 20, polished ones are a 25, advanced college aged hitters are a 30, advanced ones are a 35. Once someone has a lot of time in the upper levels we just say what we think it’d be right now. Lux should actually have a 35 as he’s advanced for his age.

12:39

Eminor3rd: Could you elaborate a bit more on the flaws you mentioned in Eloy Jimenez’s write-up? Specifically RE: body size, injury proneness?

12:39

Eric A Longenhagen: Forgive me but I think listing his entire injury history in the writeup is pretty elaborate.

12:39

Jay: Happy to see Tirso Ornelas getting some love! Do you think he could hit 25 bombs a year in his future?

12:39

Eric A Longenhagen: yes if the lift keeps coming

12:40

Tom Brady Anderson: why is Eloy down at 8, why did Whitley jump to 4?

12:40

Kiley McDaniel: moving towards more RHH DH and moving more towards legit ace

12:40

ohioastrosfan: when do we expect vlad jr? Will he be up 3 weeks in?

12:41

Kiley McDaniel: i’d bet it’s the 11 days Acuna took last year. A magical amount of time to improve!

12:41

Matt: If Jasson dominguez was on the list now where would he be?

12:41

Kiley McDaniel: We didn’t go thru the exercise yet, but he isn’t the last guy and may actually crack the top 100

12:42

AJ: Can you give us a couple of names that aren’t in the top 100 consideration this time, but have a good chance to landing within top 50 this time next year?

12:42

Kiley McDaniel: We will do that tomorrow in our picks to click article

12:42

Kiley McDaniel: Here’s last year’s list. We did pretty good!

12:43

Eric A Longenhagen:

Would you folks like it if we had an option of seeing amateur players mixed into the pro guys on The Board?

Yes (60.4% | 136 votes)
No (32.4% | 73 votes)
What’s The Board? (7.1% | 16 votes)

Total Votes: 225
12:43

greg: Tony Santillan was listed as a 50 FV on the Reds list, but didn’t show up on the top 130.  Was there a common deciding factor on guys listed as 50’s but not included on this list?

12:43

el Guapo: Curious how much listed heights and weights get updated. Is that entirely relying on teams for that information. Weight gain is an obvious example where those numbers are probably off some (Gohara 240) but I’m actually asking more in terms of height and especially for SPs. Seems like with younger prospects that sign at 17-18 by the time they are 22 are their true heights reflected or is that still what they signed at? Seems relevant for that 5-11 guy who is now 6-2/6-3 in terms of handling a starter’s load.

12:44

Kiley McDaniel: Especially for Latin players, they often don’t change from when they sign (about 16) to when they reach the bigs (sometimes 6-7 years later)

12:44

Eric A Longenhagen: just reposting so people just joining know: Santillan and Shed are on there and got lost during database import, we”ll fix after the chat.

12:44

Comparitives: More of an accounting question: The top 100 list is meant as a real life ranking system more than a fantasy top 100 correct?

12:44

Eric A Longenhagen: yes

12:44

tommyboy: In the Taveras writeup, you mentioned that many scouts/execs told you to move down your list. Were they telling you to move him down from 94 or did you bump him down to 94 as a result of their feedback?

12:44

Eric A Longenhagen: the latter

12:44

Eddy: Isn’t there a fear of having teams sway you one way or another on prospects because you go to them for their opinion? Can you clarify why you rely on them as opposed to your looks? Seems like there could be some conflict of interest

12:45

Kiley McDaniel: We’re very aware of this and have found over time which sources are trustworthy and also scouts that have a better track record than others, even with certain sorts of players. There’s pretty easy ways to crosscheck opinions we get that seem unbelievable, but sometimes they end up checking out

12:45

Big joe Mufferaw: The yankees have been awesome at trading prospects that turn into “nothing” and keeping prospects that turn into very good players (seriously, since the Cashman regime took over, look at the track record). Does that impact your lists at all?

12:45

Eric A Longenhagen: Probably subconsciously but it’s not a driving force behind how we line guys up.

12:45

Kiley McDaniel: Like if I talked to one guy about Jasson Dominguez, I would assume he wasn’t that good, but after 4-5 guys give me about the same story we realize that guy is probably legit

12:46

Weenie: Singer got picked 18th overall. 50 FV’s don’t go that low. Obviously clueless guys running draft rooms too.

12:46

Kiley McDaniel: Well he also got a well above slot bonus and he also has a delivery that some teams just wont pay big bonuses for, so he had less consensus than most accomplished college pitchers

12:47

Eddie: I have not seen an updated kotah rankings from you guys.  Will you be doing this for 2019?

12:47

Eric A Longenhagen: Chris Mitchell took KATOH with him to (redacted)

12:47

Marc: No Johnny Lasagna love despite the flashes he showed in the majors? Just wondering what would drop him from a 50 FV to a 45+

12:47

Eric A Longenhagen: all the shoulder stuff, pretty clear in the NYY writeup

12:49

Chris: Was Elehuris Montero close to cracking the list at all? Seems to have a decent hit/power combo, albeit 3b seems like best case scenario.

12:49

Eric A Longenhagen: I think he’s one of Kiley’s picks to click for tomorrow tho

12:49

el Guapo: Thanks for all the work you guys do. Witnessing the evolution of FG from a fringe website for baseball nerds to something that gets referenced in every baseball broadcast has been awesome. The depth of the prospect work you do is amazing and keeps me coming back every day.

12:49

Kiley McDaniel: Thanks!

12:50

Mike Fetters: If Baez is the high end outcome for Jazz Chisholm, what does a median outcome look like? Pre 2018 Trevor Story? Jazz is probably the most interesting prospect to me on this list.

12:50

Eric A Longenhagen: I don’t think Baez is a possible outcome, just think Jazz swings otu of his ass like Javy does.

12:52

Roger: What might an outcome probability distribution look like for Dustin May vs Luis Patino?

12:52

Eric A Longenhagen: that’s a thoughtful question but there’s an answer for it on the 100 article already

12:52

Fritz Ferter: Logan Gilbert is back end 100 if he shows velocity return and command?  Yay or nay?

12:52

Eric A Longenhagen: yay

12:53

Mister Baseball Man: Holy high guys on Kebryan Hayes! Is the expectation that he will eventually be an above average producer on offense, or is the defense simply that good?

12:53

Eric A Longenhagen: we think there’s a chance of both, just like with Pache

12:53

Bitter Fan: Why do you hate my team(s)?

12:53

Kiley McDaniel: ugh, pull up a chair dude

12:53

Jeff: Thank you for taking the time and effort to put together such a thorough prospect package!!

12:54

Anthony: Not a top 100 question, but can Andrew Vaughn go 70 hit, 55 game power?

12:54

Kiley McDaniel: Definitely possible, probably more 60 hit with good plate discipline, which may end up playing how you think a 70 hit tool would

12:55

LudeBurger: I love you all (you too, Sean and Meg!) for this list. I hate you all for making my day completely unproductive.

12:55

Mike: How could you losers not include any Red Sox!!11!

Kidding aside, great write up on  Boston a few weeks back. Who in the lower minors could sneak into the top 50 with a strong 2019? Thanks for all the great work.

12:55

Kiley McDaniel: Triston Casas may have the best chance, but not sure he can get all the way to top 50 unless he goes insane, since he’s probably just a 1B

12:55

Random: When you say sent it to teams do you mean you sent your list to every MLB team?

12:55

Eric A Longenhagen: no

12:56

Ron: What happened with Seuly Matias to knock him out since the last ranking?

12:56

Walter Sobchak: Do you believe Kyler Murray is making the right choice?

12:56

Eric A Longenhagen: on Seuly: just scared of the K’s

12:56

Kiley McDaniel: It sounds like there’s a non-zero chance he goes #1 overall and the betting line is 9th or 10th as the over/under. That combined with lesser concussions at QB and I’m thinking yes.

12:56

Jay: Did Ryan Weathers just miss? As a 45+ or something?

12:56

Kiley McDaniel: Yes, was 45+ on draft list, just like Singer

12:57

Nancy Yost : Why was my prospect rated lower then the other guy I like less?

12:58

Kiley McDaniel: Being angry is just part of life on the internet and we’re clearly mad at you

12:58

faffri: Do you ever get comments from actual players on the list about the list?

12:58

Eric A Longenhagen: No and they shouldn’t worry about it. Even the guys we put 40s on we think are super talented and have a chance to be big leaguers. Pro baseball is super hard.

12:59

Mac: Theoretically, you would think that the average grade in the bar graphs under the players should be the overall grade for the player. However, it seems as if this approach gives a lower FV than most of your grades. Should higher FVs in the chart be given larger weights than bust and 40/45 to account for this? Of course this a very unscientific analysis of the data given, but I’m just curious on the apparent discrepancy.

1:01

Kiley McDaniel: We made a weighted WAR figure to make sure our percentage odds made logical sense with our rankings. Through about the top 20 it almost perfectly agrees with our rankings, then beyond that it starts to get really hard to perfectly capture every part of every player and have an algorithm agree with everything. Like a guy in rookie ball has bonkers tools so there’s a high chance of an 70+ outcome. But is it higher than Nick Senzel with above average to plus tools in Triple-A? Probably not. What about a guy with above avergae tools in Double-A? All the various ways to break it down get more difficult the lower down you go, but it’s pretty clear on the top 20-25 or so.

1:01

JP: What is it about Dustin May that you like better than someone like Casey Mize or Chris Paddack? Projection?

1:01

Eric A Longenhagen: Vs Paddack: no injury history, better breaking ball
Vs Mize: no injury history, proximity (though that gap may close quickly)
They’re all close though, obviously.

1:01

Jen: If you had to scrap one pitch from Whitley’s arsenal, which would you scrap?

1:01

Eric A Longenhagen: Please don’t make me (the cutter I guess)

1:02

HK: Say you know that player A will produce 20 WAR in his team controlled years and 35 WAR in his career, and B will 15 and 40 respectively, then how do rank them? What if it’s 20/30 and 15/45?

1:02

Kiley McDaniel: I’ve posited this to scouts and execs forever as the Aramis Ramirez vs. Ben Grieve question. Do you want to be right about the player (but he hits his potential after his first 6 years) or do you want the most bang for the buck (Grieve went nuts in years 0-3 when he made the minimum)

1:03

Kiley McDaniel: There isn’t a “right” answer, but scouts pick Aramis and execs pick Grieve, almost every time

1:03

Annoying Chat Person: The idea for the probable FV distribution graphs was to get us to stop asking you about outcome likelihoods, wasn’t it? Well played, McDongenhagen. Well played…

1:03

Kiley McDaniel: Haha it was to convey information that we were conveying…which could also be to get you people to shut up

1:04

Kiley McDaniel: or my friends that text me everyday about odds that Hunter Greene becomes an ace for theri dynasty league trades

1:04

Jay: Odds Hans Crouse is a starter long term?

1:04

Eric A Longenhagen: For me, way less than 50%, maybe 20%?

1:04

PM: Any plans to add the potential outcome ranges to a sortable chart?

1:04

Kiley McDaniel: Down the road, yes

1:04

YO: Did Tony Gonsolin/Jeter Downs come close to the Top 130?

1:04

Kiley McDaniel: Both were in the conversation

1:04

Kiley McDaniel: Downs was a 45+ on the Reds list

1:05

el Guapo: How much does swing and miss in Tatis’ game impact his placement relative to Franco or is that not really a consideration?

1:05

Eric A Longenhagen: it was ultimately the thing that did it

1:05

Turtle Jetpack: If Mallex Smith is a prospect, does he sniff this list?

1:05

Eric A Longenhagen: hell yes

1:05

Bret: Can you guys share one name that Kiley had to pound the desk for and Eric questioned, and vice versa?

1:05

Eric A Longenhagen: we’re getting a lot of these, Kiley. Let’s think of a couple and give the people what they want

1:06

Kiley McDaniel: lol I was wondering what your answer was going to be

1:06

Kiley McDaniel: I think Eric was driving the Jose Suarez and Taylor Widener bandwagons, but I ended up joining him

1:06

Kiley McDaniel: and Leody Taveras

1:07

Eric A Longenhagen: I’d have Contreras closer to Amaya

1:07

Kiley McDaniel: I think I was higher on Ronaldo Hernandez and William Contreras

1:07

Eric A Longenhagen: or vice versa,

1:07

Eric A Longenhagen: and I wanted Melendez on there

1:07

Kiley McDaniel: Think I may be higher on Brandon Lowe than Eric

1:07

Eric A Longenhagen: but the feedback from teams made me acquiesce on MJ

1:08

Kiley McDaniel: I got a really good look on Adonis Medina this spring but sounds like it was better than what most others saw

1:08

Kiley McDaniel: I pushed on Lux a bit

1:08

Kiley McDaniel: I’m probably higher on Kirilloff than Eric

1:08

Eric A Longenhagen: yup

1:09

Chuncey Wiggins: Of the top 100 who has the most delicious sounding name?

1:09

Kiley McDaniel: I pushed a little on Wander Franco and Royce Lewis but we ended up agreeing

1:09

Kiley McDaniel: BRUSDAR!

1:10

Eric A Longenhagen: def brusdar

1:10

Phil Diggety: What do you think of Lazarito/Beck? FV 45 on both?

1:10

Kiley McDaniel: Yes

1:10

Billy Beane: What’s keeping Luzardo & Puk from being 60s? TJS history?

1:10

Kiley McDaniel: Mainly

1:10

Malloy: Hunter Greene FV 50?  number 1 pick with 100 plus on radar.  maybe i dont understand FV

1:10

Kiley McDaniel: Breaking ball isn’t quite there, arm injury late, guys that throw that hard almost always blow out, he’s not close to MLB either

1:10

Chris Torres: Really surprised to not see Nick Neidert in your list of 130.  Any insight into your thoughts on him and how close he was to your 130?  Thanks!

1:11

Kiley McDaniel: Probably the last cut and may jump to a 50 FV with a nice start to 2019

1:11

Z-town: Does Denaberg make the list if he doesn’t have injury issues?

1:11

Kiley McDaniel: Also probably moves on with a half dozen or so good starts/health

1:11

Fritz Ferter: Kyle Lewis and Julio Rodriguez names to look for mid-season if they start hot?

1:11

Kiley McDaniel: Julio is another to watch to jump, also Antonio Cabello

1:11

Kiley McDaniel: But I don’t want to ruin the whole picks to click article

1:11

Trent the frat bro: What’s the relationship between # of top 100 prospects and the quality of the farm overall?

1:12

Matt: When do you stop thinking about a young player in terms of where they’d be on these lists (moncada/ amed rosario). Is it as soon as they lose eligibility?

1:12

Kiley McDaniel: If you read Craig’s research, 50 FV or better makes up for a huge percentage of the overall value. Hard to make up ground if you’re behind one team by 3-4 of those top 130 types with a bunch of 45s

1:12

Eric A Longenhagen: I try to keep my finger on the pulse of that stuff and that’s what the prospect limbo piece will be for (JP Crawford, Dom Smith, Raimel Tapia, others who slip between the crack of most public coverage)

1:12

Kiley McDaniel: like, you’d need dozens

1:12

Chase: Love the prospect week content – besides which J2 signee from last year has the best chance to see his name on the list, excluding Mesa of course?

1:13

Kiley McDaniel: Marco Luciano is the leading candidate. Kevin Alcantara and Diego Cartaya are lurking behind him

1:13

Hans Crouse: Why don’t you like me??

1:13

Eric A Longenhagen: I swear we do, and I dig your photorealistic tattoo

1:13

hans: If I’m looking for batters that make powerful contact, how would I sort the board? Kelenic seems like a standout in that cat, any other prospects fit this bill?

1:13

Kiley McDaniel: Raw power and hit tool mix is probably it?

1:14

Kiley McDaniel: I had a friend as if we would put exit velo on the board, but it’s so hard to capture what a reader would want in one number that isn’t just raw power

1:14

Bryce Machado: Simply scouting the statline, Mark Vientos of the Mets seemed to show everything you’d want to see from an 18-year-old in the Appy. Power and ability to control the strike zone were both there. Hoping he starts the season in Columbia, what does he need to do to make the leap into the top 50 in 2020? More of the same or is there something else you’re looking to see if he improves on?

1:14

Kiley McDaniel: Improving on D and performing in a full season league is about all we need. Huge upside if the D comes around

1:14

Kiley McDaniel: One Mets source mentioned Nolan Arenado wasn’t super different at this stage and that isn’t totally wrong

1:15

Franch Friar: Which prospects did you “tweak” their distribution of outcomes the most?

1:15

Kiley McDaniel: The MLB-ready ones, like Danny Jansen or Brandon Lowe or Yusei Kikuchi. The odds they bust and don’t put up a couple WAR seem incredibly low now and the baselines were 30-40%

1:15

Baloney Bologna: How much does health factor into your rankings? I am not thinking TJ type stuff, which clearly has a big impact on rank, but things such as Senzels vertigo stuff?

1:15

Eric A Longenhagen: TJ recovery rates are strong enough that we just move guys back based more on timeline rather than injury risk. So if Johnny Curveball and Luis Cambio have the exact same stuff, but Johnny is at Double A and Luis is in NYPL, we want Johnny. But if Johnny has a TJ in August and is out forever, by the time he comes back Luis will have a similar timeline to the bigs, so they should be pretty close.

1:16

Canned Peanuts: Is the release of the Aladdin trailer the reason for Will Smith dropping down the list?

1:16

Kiley McDaniel: it’s not not the reason

1:16

Noah: Why the flip on Keibert v Will Smith. Last year FG was higher on Smith

1:16

Kiley McDaniel: it sounds like the dodgers were, as well. but performance and facing better pitching and development isn’t always a linear thing

1:17

Redsfan: Why aren’t you guys higher on Jon India? What am I missing

1:17

Kiley McDaniel: you could argue there isn’t a plus game tool there. could still be a 3-win guy, you’d just like to have more pro performance or tool upside to really shove a guy this early after being drafted

1:17

Jeff: Where is Christin Stewart?

1:18

Kiley McDaniel: The DH types really got crushed this year, and we also adjusted more than we have in the past for TJ guys as well. Evolution

1:18

CoCo: Does Spencer Howard have what it takes from a ‘stuff’ perspective to be a top 20 prospect at the end of this year?

1:18

Eric A Longenhagen: Stuff is fine, fastball command is what gets him into the 60 FV tier

1:18

Chris S: Carter Kieboom can’t possibly be a shortstop right? Right?

1:18

Eric A Longenhagen: probably not, but i thought that about DeJong, and Semien, and Daniel Robertson, and kinda about Correa and Seager. The position is changing.

1:19

Mike: holy crap! that list is fantastic. You two friggin killed it.  I can’t even take other prospect lists seriously anymore.  thank you

1:19

Eric A Longenhagen: that’s kinda harsh and other folks do a good job too, but thanks

1:19

John Lavigne: For how long do you think the list is reliable? If I’m analyzing trades this May based on the rankings here, is it likely I’ve missed important new data?

1:20

Kiley McDaniel: We plan to update it in season every month or so, so I’d like to think any big movers will be adjusted by then. But, also, you’re probably fine to use this then

1:20

Draftnik: How close was Luis Garcia (Phillies) to making it?

1:20

Eric A Longenhagen: very close. remember, this is just a ranking of all the 50 or better FV guys, so anyone on a team list who is a 45 or 45+ is very close.

1:21

Nick Yost : But why male models?

1:21

Josh: How close was Nathaniel Lowe to cracking the top 100 and when do you see him taking over at 1st base for the Rays?

1:22

Kiley McDaniel: Also a 45+ that’s in the next 30 or so names

1:22

Ginny: If you were a GM, who would you rather have in your franchise – Jesus Luzardo or Julio Urias?

1:22

Eric A Longenhagen: Damn, that’s a great question. I suppose Urias’ medical stuff is a little scarier than Luzardo’s TJ, and they have comparable stuff/build/polish.

1:22

Mike Maroth: Without ruining it, are there guys from the “pick to click” list that were on it last year?

1:22

Kiley McDaniel: I’m sure there will be a few repeats

1:23

Eric A Longenhagen: Wander Javier!

1:23

Josh Ock: With 30 DHs am I a viable regular?

1:23

Kiley McDaniel: More Ji Man Choi-ish for me

1:23

Kiley McDaniel: I wish we’d get some Wander Javier questions

1:23

Dave: What kept Victor Victor Mesa off the list?

1:23

Eric A Longenhagen: we don’t think the ceiling is that high, more in the Almora range for us. Give me Florial’s power.

1:24

Jonesy Whales: Looking back, was the Quintana trade reasonable for both sides at the time?

1:24

Eric A Longenhagen: yes

1:24

Kiley Quips <3: To answer you from last week I’m a guy! A guy who loves a good chat slaying and the heaps of prospect coverage you guys deliver!

1:24

Brusdar: What are my chances at being a MLB starter? Scouts think there is too much effort in my delivery, but man I throw a lot of strikes.

1:24

Kiley McDaniel: Not that much effort, just not fine in terms of command and we think he should lengthen the stride some, but the super easy arm speed is beyond elite

1:25

I Used To Be Mel Clarke: Is Kopech’s upside really only that of a No. 3 starter?

1:25

Eric A Longenhagen: yes, we think there are maybe 6-8 #1 starters at any given time, that’s it. We’re not talking about SP1 for a fantasy team.

1:25

Vlad’s Dad: What’s the worst case scenario for Vlad Jr?

1:25

Eric A Longenhagen: a pack of hyena’s each one of his hands and he only hits .240

1:25

Kiley McDaniel: well .240 with walks and 20 HR

1:27

JD: So Yordan Alvarez’s defense knocks him way down the list, but what’s his bat look like to you? More likely to be a great DH, a good one, or an adequate one?

1:27

Eric A Longenhagen: On this DH valuation stuff: look at Nellie. That’s a 50 or 55. What are the chances Yordan is that good? That’s gotta be the high end of what he can do, Nellie is amazing. https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=dh&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&…

1:28

Eric A Longenhagen: Again, FV is mapped to WAR, so to say Yordan is a 6 he’s gotta be a 3+ annual WAR guy on average for his first six seasons, and I just don’t think he’s that guy

1:28

Robert: Would it be wrong for me to be disappointed in the development of Almanzar, Barley, Rosario and Arias? I thought one of them would make a jump. Think any of them can see a big jump in tools and performance? Not a Franco jump but Pache

1:28

Eric A Longenhagen: too soon to be down on those dudes, they’re teens

1:29

Turtle Jetpack: Given that Haniger is probably a current 55 value player, is it realistic to expect he’d return two FV 55 prospects?

1:29

Kiley McDaniel: He’s a 60 or 65 right now and that’s more a job for prospect asset values, since a 55 with 1 year of control vs. 6 returns way different stuff in a trade

1:29

Fart for Bart: Has this hashtag been used?

1:29

Kiley McDaniel: little late bro

1:29

Walter Sobchak: Has D’Shawn Knowles moved ahead of Trent Deveaux for you guys?

1:29

Eric A Longenhagen: Yes but they’re right next to one another on the soon-to-be-released Angels list

1:30

Mike: hyena’s have the strongest bite in terms of pressure per square inch of any mammal, so you it isn’t as far fetched as it sounds.

1:30

Kiley McDaniel: i’ll add this to the Vlad odds outcome so BUST now just says HYENA ATTACK

1:31

AJ: Brandon Marsh struggled at A+ last season. Is his prospect status wearing out?

1:31

Eric A Longenhagen: Nah

1:31

DD: How many 50 FV prospects would a team have to offer for you to trade Vlad Jr?

1:31

Kiley McDaniel: So, using Craig’s work here: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/an-update-to-prospect-valuation/

1:32

Kiley McDaniel: It would be 4-5 to match Vlad value but I’m sure you’d rather have all that value in one player rather than 4-5. So the actual answer depends on what kind of discount you make for making a multi player package. Maybe 8-10?

1:32

Random: Did not realize you are planning on updating this every month or so. That sounds like a ton of work, but much appreciated. Thanks for doing that!

1:32

Eric A Longenhagen: We won’t write this many words every month or post a huge article, but this is what the Board is for we can shuffle guys in real time if we want. If I’m on the backfields and Michael Grove is 94-98 with a 6 breaking ball, I’m just gonna move him and write an instagraphs post saying why.

1:32

Kiley McDaniel: and you guys are gonna like it

1:33

Kiley McDaniel: same for the draft board, too

1:33

Safety Stegosaurus: It would seem appropriate for Machado or Harper to sign during the chat with the most content to discuss this offseason…….. nope didn’t work.

1:33

Kiley McDaniel: Ugh now we have to write another 50,000 words

1:33

Rueben: Where is Dominic Brown?

1:33

Kiley McDaniel: just missed the list

1:33

Eric A Longenhagen: He’s in the Mexican League btw

1:34

Doug: I have a big case of prospect fatigue. So many lists, so many write-ups. I think I need the season to start already.

1:34

Eric A Longenhagen: College ball starts Friday, folks!

1:34

Kiley McDaniel: I’ll be out to see Alek Manoah (WVU) this weekend, then UCLA comes to Ga Tech next weekend and some local prep types like CJ Abrams also start today

1:34

Slothrop: What do you guys know about Adam Brett Walker

1:35

Kiley McDaniel: 80 raw, big swing and miss issues, fine in left field

1:35

Eric A Longenhagen: Huge power, has been working out at Driveline, I had a 30 on the arm when he was with MIN

1:35

Mike: Remember the Jeremy Hermida Versus Nick Markakis debates?

1:35

Kiley McDaniel: Braves fans are mad they didn’t spend some of that payroll on Jeremy Hermida this winter COLLUSION

1:35

Canned Peanuts: Best hit tool of someone who didn’t make the top 100?

1:36

Eric A Longenhagen: this may be incorrect but off the top of my head it’s Tyler Nevin

1:36

Tyler: Chances that Wander is a big leaguer as a teenager?

1:37

Kiley McDaniel: he’s 18 in a couple weeks, so that gives us all of 2019 (I’d say 1% chance this year) and all of 2020 (I’d say close to 50%). Really should depend more on if TB has a spot/need for him, or if waiting 11 days into 2021 won’t affect their playoff odds mcuh

1:37

Walter Sobchak: Have you seen any 70 hit tools undermined by approach/defensive issues?

1:37

Eric A Longenhagen: i call this Josh Vitters Disease

1:37

Eric A Longenhagen: Anyway, I’m ready to call this things because we have other stuff to write and I have to get my credential ducks in a row for this weekend’s college games in AZ. Kiley you wanna keep going or are you done?

1:38

ProspectNerd: Will there also be a fantasy list this year?

1:38

Kiley McDaniel: we’re gonna do a 2019 impact article which is probably what you’re asking for

1:38

Kiley McDaniel: And i’m done as well!

1:38

MATT DAMON: MATT. DAMON.  FV 80+

1:39

Eric A Longenhagen: Okay, remember to play with The Board, do some independent research with all these spin rates you guys: https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2019-prospect-list?sort=…

1:39

Kiley McDaniel: See you people next week, thanks for reading!

1:39

Eric A Longenhagen: Thanks for coming, everyone. Hope you’re enjoying prospect week and our offseason analysis. AL West is our next division for the team lists.  Have a great week!

We hoped you liked reading 2019 Top 100 Prospects Chat by Eric Longenhagen and Kiley McDaniel!

Please support FanGraphs by becoming a member. We publish thousands of articles a year, host multiple podcasts, and have an ever growing database of baseball stats.

FanGraphs does not have a paywall. With your membership, we can continue to offer the content you've come to rely on and add to our unique baseball coverage.

Support FanGraphs




newest oldest most voted
mrmariner1
Member
mrmariner1

Interesting that the Mariners got 4 years of Mallex Smith in exchange for 2 years of Zunino. It’s kinda like the Mariners got a top 100 prospect for Zunino since Eric mentioned that he would pretty clearly be on the list. Obviously, Smith isn’t controlled as long as the prospect on this list and there’s more to the deal: Plassmeyer and Heredia to TB, Fraley to SEA, but Seattle did well.
Also getting Shed Long (50 FV) for Josh Stowers (40-45 FV) was worth using up a 40-man roster spot imo.