2019 ZiPS Projections – Baltimore Orioles

After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for more than half a decade. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Baltimore Orioles.

Batters

Well, at least expectations have been tempered quite a bit. After all, this is a team that finished last in the American League in runs scored with Manny Machado for half a season, and even if Jonathan Schoop was disappointing and Adam Jones is in steep decline, they at least combined for an OPS above .700, which is … something.

The short-term outlook for the Orioles is bleak. Probably the most humorous/interesting/sad projection is Chris Davis‘, who is essentially projected for a massive, three-WAR rebound, which will get him to…zero or at least close enough to zero to borrow its lawn mower. Cedric Mullins at least looks like he has some promise and Renato Nunez is fascinating in that it still feels like he could have a weird 30 homer-but-below-average-overall season.

It was disappointing how many at-bats the Orioles gave Caleb Joseph last year given how up-and-down Chance Sisco’s been; if he’s ever going to succeed in the majors, he’s going to have to learn how to get through a slump, and that’s not going to happen against Triple-A pitchers.

My gut tells me that of the players in the graphic, only Mullins really has much of a chance to be a factor the next time the Orioles are good. Sadly, I think the list of non-factors includes Trey Mancini, who feels a lot closer to Jim Traber than a Randy Milligan-esque surprise.

Pitchers

It’s kind of depressing, but unlike the departed Kevin Gausman, who has a few more miles per hour on the fastball and a splitter that is just filthy at times, I don’t think Dylan Bundy post-injuries really has the stuff left to be a viable breakout candidate. It strikes me as unlikely that he’s ever even half the pitcher the O’s hoped he would be; his slider can still be very good, but too much of his repertoire is crushable.

The question at this point is whether Bundy and Alex Cobb can be league-average enough to be traded, and while I’m down on Bundy from a ceiling perspective, I’m more optimistic about being able to answer that question with a “yes.” I think there’s a good chance Cobb can beat this projection. Why? Before he was shut down with blisters, he was having a quietly solid second half, which coincided with increased usage of his splitter, his bread-and-butter pitch throughout his successes with the Rays.

One of the few 2019 bright spots in Baltimore’s ZiPS projection is the bullpen. The team has had a knack for finding relievers who end up pitching better than their stuff suggests they will, and ZiPS largely sees the front half of the relief corps being surprisingly solid, though this will probably matter more for deadline trades than for the immediate future of the Orioles, with the possible exception of the wild-but-fascinating Tanner Scott, who hits the high 90s and seems a lot more familiar with where home plate rests than the natural Orioles comparison, Brad Pennington, did.

Bench and Prospects

I wouldn’t get upset about the relatively tame projections for prospects like Ryan Mountcastle and Yusniel Diaz. The Orioles are in the very, very early stages of a rebuild that will likely need to be one of the longer and more painful ones in resent memory if it is to bear fruit. The team is a lot closer to the bleak wasteland the Astros occupied when Jeff Luhnow took over after the 2011 season than teams like the Brewers that required lighter resets. Too much of the basics of franchise-building were ignored in Baltimore for too long.

As such, the O’s don’t really care about mean projections right now. They’re at the point where they’ll just shrug and take the guys that exceed those average expectations. It doesn’t matter right now if 18 of the team’s top 20 prospects are busts as long as they get to keep the other two. And no, the minor leagues are not deep yet. It’s going to require years of good drafting, not to mention a sustained commitment to amateur signings in Latin America, a 180 degrees shift from the malpractice that became a joke around baseball.

It’s also worth noting that the O’s have quite a few vaguely intriguing pitching prospects in A-ball who just missed this list.

One pedantic note for 2019: for the WAR graphic, I’m using FanGraphs’ depth chart playing time, not the playing time ZiPS spits out, so there will be occasional differences in WAR totals.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site.

Batters – Counting Stats
Player B Age PO G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS
Cedric Mullins B 24 CF 141 578 74 143 30 5 16 62 42 119 18 5
Jonathan Villar B 28 2B 145 494 62 121 20 2 15 50 46 151 39 10
Renato Nunez R 25 3B 133 491 63 116 24 1 23 66 36 136 2 0
Ryan McKenna R 22 CF 130 499 61 116 23 2 10 46 46 141 9 6
Trey Mancini R 27 LF 153 579 71 149 26 4 26 74 42 159 1 1
Hanser Alberto R 26 SS 117 399 40 103 16 2 8 37 9 42 1 4
Rio Ruiz L 25 3B 146 512 61 117 24 3 13 58 48 134 2 2
Mark Trumbo R 33 DH 121 453 58 108 18 1 24 63 33 124 1 0
Adam Jones R 33 CF 140 565 63 149 26 1 19 66 26 98 4 1
Colby Rasmus L 32 RF 78 252 32 54 10 1 13 39 25 90 1 0
Martin Cervenka R 26 C 100 363 38 81 16 1 10 39 23 98 1 1
Richie Martin R 24 SS 116 450 46 105 17 5 5 33 32 110 14 8
Mike Yastrzemski L 28 LF 114 423 50 93 20 4 12 48 38 127 6 4
Austin Hays R 23 RF 115 470 54 119 21 2 17 61 16 106 7 6
Chance Sisco L 24 C 108 345 38 82 16 0 8 36 29 120 2 1
Rylan Bannon R 23 3B 116 440 58 92 15 3 18 52 55 147 3 4
Jace Peterson L 29 3B 117 329 35 73 14 3 5 35 45 83 12 5
Corban Joseph L 30 2B 122 440 48 110 18 1 10 45 30 56 5 4
Austin Wynns R 28 C 89 299 34 70 11 0 7 29 20 75 1 0
Drew Jackson R 25 SS 106 407 50 85 15 1 9 35 37 133 18 8
Joey Rickard R 28 RF 117 350 43 84 18 2 8 33 32 85 7 2
Audry Perez R 30 C 62 220 24 55 8 0 6 24 9 40 0 0
Ryan Mountcastle R 22 3B 121 484 55 120 26 3 13 55 19 110 3 1
Caleb Joseph R 33 C 95 300 31 66 12 1 6 24 15 79 1 1
Carlos Perez R 28 C 76 251 26 55 12 1 7 29 17 53 2 1
Andrew Susac R 29 C 62 195 24 39 8 0 8 23 24 70 0 0
Yusniel Diaz R 22 RF 112 431 52 110 16 4 10 40 48 107 10 14
Danny Valencia R 34 1B 104 356 45 91 15 1 13 47 30 86 1 1
Chris Davis L 33 1B 124 450 56 88 15 0 23 65 56 197 2 1
Anthony Santander B 24 RF 119 444 49 112 24 2 13 48 24 99 6 2
Zach Vincej R 28 SS 114 391 40 90 15 2 6 34 25 76 5 4
Craig Gentry R 35 RF 80 218 22 48 6 1 2 14 16 54 10 4
Luis Sardinas B 26 SS 103 348 37 86 11 2 5 29 16 64 6 4
D.J. Stewart L 25 RF 127 461 60 102 21 2 15 56 52 134 13 6
Brett Cumberland B 24 C 98 339 41 61 14 1 11 34 40 144 0 2
Steve Wilkerson B 27 2B 92 338 34 73 12 1 5 26 24 109 6 5
Sharlon Schoop R 32 2B 58 193 19 38 6 1 4 17 14 58 0 2
Ruben Tejada R 29 2B 100 326 34 75 16 0 3 26 22 63 3 1
Chris Bostick R 26 CF 127 458 50 106 21 4 8 43 35 123 9 6
Drew Dosch L 27 3B 115 418 43 92 18 3 8 39 28 135 2 1
Adrian Marin R 25 SS 113 405 37 87 14 2 2 25 21 103 8 4
Jaycob Brugman L 27 LF 101 382 41 84 14 3 9 39 32 110 6 3
Engelb Vielma B 25 SS 106 371 33 77 9 2 0 18 23 93 8 7
Erick Salcedo B 26 SS 131 452 40 100 14 2 2 28 22 72 4 5
Anderson Feliz B 27 3B 115 402 41 81 15 3 8 37 30 135 10 3
Garabez Rosa R 29 1B 126 493 48 119 16 1 10 47 11 133 2 3

Batters – Rate Stats
Player BA OBP SLG OPS+ ISO BABIP RC/27 Def WAR No. 1 Comp
Cedric Mullins .247 .300 .400 89 .152 .287 4.5 1 1.5 Vernon Wells
Jonathan Villar .245 .312 .385 89 .140 .323 4.7 -2 1.4 Julio Lugo
Renato Nunez .236 .292 .430 94 .193 .280 4.5 -4 1.0 Andy Marte
Ryan McKenna .232 .307 .347 79 .114 .305 3.7 5 0.9 Marvin Garrison
Trey Mancini .257 .311 .451 105 .193 .312 5.1 -7 0.9 George Scott
Hanser Alberto .258 .276 .368 74 .110 .272 3.5 7 0.8 Darryl Robinson
Rio Ruiz .229 .294 .363 79 .135 .285 3.7 4 0.7 Casey Webster
Mark Trumbo .238 .291 .442 96 .203 .275 4.6 0 0.6 Walt Dropo
Adam Jones .264 .301 .414 93 .150 .290 4.6 -9 0.6 Jose Guillen
Colby Rasmus .214 .285 .417 88 .202 .275 4.1 4 0.6 Dann Howitt
Martin Cervenka .223 .269 .355 69 .132 .278 3.3 5 0.6 Craig Tatum
Richie Martin .233 .295 .327 70 .093 .299 3.0 4 0.6 Jesse Garcia
Mike Yastrzemski .220 .288 .371 79 .151 .285 3.7 9 0.5 Wynter Phoenix
Austin Hays .253 .280 .415 87 .162 .294 4.1 5 0.5 Mark Smith
Chance Sisco .238 .316 .354 83 .116 .341 4.0 -5 0.5 Eric Helfand
Rylan Bannon .209 .299 .380 84 .170 .269 3.8 -1 0.5 Tony Schrager
Jace Peterson .222 .317 .328 78 .106 .282 3.7 1 0.4 Stubby Clapp
Corban Joseph .250 .299 .364 80 .114 .267 3.8 0 0.4 Kevin Howard
Austin Wynns .234 .285 .341 70 .107 .290 3.5 0 0.3 Dave Parrish
Drew Jackson .209 .289 .317 66 .108 .287 3.2 2 0.3 Jimmy Alvarez
Joey Rickard .240 .309 .371 85 .131 .296 4.2 0 0.2 Jim Paciorek
Audry Perez .250 .281 .368 76 .118 .282 3.7 -1 0.2 Jeff Smith
Ryan Mountcastle .248 .278 .395 81 .147 .296 4.0 -3 0.2 Jeff Hamilton
Caleb Joseph .220 .263 .327 60 .107 .279 2.9 4 0.1 Frank Charles
Carlos Perez .219 .269 .359 70 .139 .251 3.3 0 0.1 Jim Horner
Andrew Susac .200 .288 .364 77 .164 .265 3.5 -3 0.1 Danny Ardoin
Yusniel Diaz .255 .331 .381 94 .125 .318 4.1 -3 0.0 Milton Bradley
Danny Valencia .256 .312 .413 96 .157 .304 4.6 -4 0.0 Hector Lopez
Chris Davis .196 .291 .382 82 .187 .283 3.7 1 -0.1 Kurt Airoso
Anthony Santander .252 .296 .403 89 .151 .298 4.4 -4 -0.1 Dave Engle
Zach Vincej .230 .284 .325 66 .095 .272 3.2 -1 -0.2 Ed Brinkman
Craig Gentry .220 .277 .284 55 .064 .284 2.8 6 -0.2 Jose Cruz
Luis Sardinas .247 .283 .333 68 .086 .290 3.3 -2 -0.2 Tom Veryzer
D.J. Stewart .221 .309 .373 85 .152 .279 4.0 -4 -0.2 D.J. Boston
Brett Cumberland .180 .295 .324 70 .145 .272 3.0 -5 -0.3 Brian Deak
Steve Wilkerson .216 .274 .302 58 .086 .304 2.7 4 -0.3 John Hotchkiss
Sharlon Schoop .197 .257 .301 52 .104 .260 2.4 2 -0.4 Chris Petersen
Ruben Tejada .230 .289 .307 63 .077 .277 3.1 -2 -0.5 Tim Cullen
Chris Bostick .231 .293 .347 74 .116 .300 3.5 -7 -0.6 Lou Collier
Drew Dosch .220 .271 .335 64 .115 .305 3.1 -1 -0.6 John Hotchkiss
Adrian Marin .215 .258 .274 46 .059 .283 2.4 3 -0.8 Jose Escobar
Jaycob Brugman .220 .282 .343 70 .123 .285 3.3 -2 -0.9 Johan Limonta
Engelb Vielma .208 .255 .243 38 .035 .277 1.9 6 -1.0 Julius McDougal
Erick Salcedo .221 .259 .274 46 .053 .259 2.3 3 -1.2 Mike Terhune
Anderson Feliz .201 .258 .313 55 .112 .282 2.8 -5 -1.4 Mike Jirschele
Garabez Rosa .241 .261 .339 62 .097 .311 3.1 -1 -1.9 Tommy Davis

Pitchers – Counting Stats
Player T Age W L ERA G GS IP H ER HR BB SO
Dylan Bundy R 26 11 11 4.55 29 29 164.0 163 83 29 50 158
Mychal Givens R 29 5 3 3.19 66 0 73.3 61 26 5 28 79
Alex Cobb R 31 9 9 4.50 24 24 136.0 149 68 19 36 89
Paul Fry L 26 4 3 3.93 57 1 73.3 67 32 7 33 73
Tanner Scott L 24 4 3 3.71 65 0 63.0 51 26 4 40 79
Richard Bleier L 32 2 1 3.44 45 0 49.7 54 19 3 8 22
Donnie Hart L 28 3 2 3.77 54 0 59.7 61 25 4 20 44
Jimmy Yacabonis R 27 4 5 4.89 40 21 103.0 107 56 12 50 76
Mike Wright R 29 4 5 4.99 39 11 101.0 110 56 16 36 79
Miguel Castro R 24 5 5 4.57 63 0 90.7 90 46 8 47 56
Cody Carroll R 26 3 3 4.43 51 0 63.0 58 31 6 39 64
Gregory Infante R 31 3 3 4.47 53 0 54.3 55 27 6 23 44
Zach Pop R 22 3 3 4.40 53 0 61.3 64 30 6 28 47
Tanner Chleborad R 26 3 4 4.55 41 0 57.3 63 29 6 20 33
Josh Lucas R 28 2 2 4.45 44 1 54.7 58 27 7 21 44
Jhan Marinez R 30 2 2 4.66 48 1 58.0 62 30 8 26 46
Chris Lee L 26 4 6 5.30 23 16 88.3 101 52 10 46 50
Josh Rogers L 24 8 11 5.40 25 25 131.7 159 79 23 38 76
John Means L 26 7 9 5.40 27 25 143.3 170 86 26 39 92
Hunter Harvey R 24 1 2 5.12 10 10 31.7 34 18 5 11 24
Branden Kline R 27 4 4 4.74 46 0 57.0 60 30 8 24 45
Dean Kremer R 23 6 9 5.25 25 25 121.7 132 71 21 64 123
Andrew Cashner R 32 7 10 5.28 25 25 136.3 155 80 21 56 83
Bruce Zimmermann L 24 7 10 5.29 24 24 114.0 128 67 19 54 92
D.J. Snelten L 27 3 3 4.83 41 0 54.0 57 29 5 31 40
Matt Wotherspoon R 27 4 5 5.27 36 10 85.3 90 50 15 39 76
Dillon Tate R 25 5 6 5.49 21 20 103.3 121 63 16 42 61
Gabriel Ynoa R 26 7 10 5.31 28 23 135.7 164 80 23 33 78
Zach Muckenhirn L 24 2 2 4.76 49 0 62.3 64 33 7 33 50
Keegan Akin L 24 8 12 5.51 24 24 116.0 123 71 20 62 97
Austin Brice R 27 3 4 4.85 53 0 59.3 62 32 9 23 49
Luis H. Gonzalez L 27 3 3 5.00 42 0 63.0 65 35 10 31 56
Pedro Araujo R 25 2 3 5.06 31 0 42.7 42 24 7 23 44
Eddie Gamboa R 34 4 7 5.68 19 12 76.0 83 48 11 46 50
Andrew Faulkner L 26 3 4 5.24 49 0 55.0 58 32 7 33 42
Sean Gilmartin L 29 4 6 5.45 37 10 79.3 93 48 15 27 54
Luis Ortiz R 23 4 7 5.72 24 19 94.3 113 60 19 36 64
Joely Rodriguez L 27 3 4 5.27 42 1 54.7 60 32 8 27 41
David Hess R 25 7 11 5.71 27 26 132.3 150 84 27 53 94
Evan Phillips R 24 4 6 5.40 48 1 56.7 55 34 10 34 62
Lucas Long R 26 6 9 5.77 30 16 107.7 131 69 21 31 62
Yefry Ramirez R 25 6 10 5.65 28 24 121.0 130 76 24 56 102
Brian Gonzalez L 23 6 10 5.91 23 22 115.7 135 76 19 63 72
Jay Flaa R 27 2 3 6.02 39 0 52.3 54 35 10 36 48
Jordan Kipper R 26 5 8 6.06 22 19 104.0 132 70 20 37 50
Matthew Grimes R 27 3 5 6.10 29 14 90.0 109 61 17 39 52
Tim Melville R 29 5 9 6.54 33 15 95.0 114 69 22 47 65

Pitchers – Rate Stats
Player TBF K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BABIP ERA+ ERA- FIP WAR No. 1 Comp
Dylan Bundy 701 8.67 2.74 1.59 .293 94 106 4.56 1.7 Felipe Lira
Mychal Givens 308 9.70 3.44 0.61 .292 135 74 3.19 1.6 Billy Koch
Alex Cobb 587 5.89 2.38 1.26 .297 96 105 4.56 1.5 Al Fitzmorris
Paul Fry 319 8.96 4.05 0.86 .297 110 91 3.91 0.9 Randy Choate
Tanner Scott 278 11.29 5.71 0.57 .307 116 86 3.47 0.8 Felix Heredia
Richard Bleier 210 3.99 1.45 0.54 .293 121 83 3.71 0.8 Pedro Borbon
Donnie Hart 258 6.64 3.02 0.60 .305 114 88 3.70 0.8 Leo Kiely
Jimmy Yacabonis 465 6.64 4.37 1.05 .297 88 114 4.85 0.6 Joaquin Andujar
Mike Wright 449 7.04 3.21 1.43 .303 86 116 4.95 0.3 Bert Bradley
Miguel Castro 406 5.56 4.67 0.79 .282 94 106 4.75 0.3 Hal Reniff
Cody Carroll 285 9.14 5.57 0.86 .301 97 103 4.36 0.3 Clay Bryant
Gregory Infante 240 7.29 3.81 0.99 .299 96 104 4.40 0.3 Tony Fiore
Zach Pop 274 6.90 4.11 0.88 .305 95 106 4.41 0.2 Gary Ross
Tanner Chleborad 253 5.18 3.14 0.94 .298 94 106 4.56 0.2 Casey Cox
Josh Lucas 242 7.24 3.46 1.15 .305 94 107 4.52 0.2 Todd Williams
Jhan Marinez 262 7.14 4.03 1.24 .303 92 108 4.91 0.2 Bruce Dal Canton
Chris Lee 410 5.09 4.69 1.02 .304 81 123 5.22 0.2 Bill Wight
Josh Rogers 587 5.19 2.60 1.57 .306 80 126 5.27 0.1 Bobby Livingston
John Means 636 5.78 2.45 1.63 .306 80 126 5.21 0.1 Heath Phillips
Hunter Harvey 139 6.82 3.13 1.42 .296 84 119 4.82 0.1 Tommy Boggs
Branden Kline 254 7.11 3.79 1.26 .299 91 110 4.82 0.1 Scott Munter
Dean Kremer 559 9.10 4.73 1.55 .322 79 126 5.10 0.1 Jim Converse
Andrew Cashner 614 5.48 3.70 1.39 .298 79 127 5.28 0.1 Bill Singer
Bruce Zimmermann 523 7.26 4.26 1.50 .311 79 127 5.31 0.0 Derek Thompson
D.J. Snelten 249 6.67 5.17 0.83 .306 89 112 4.76 0.0 Brian Adams
Matt Wotherspoon 384 8.02 4.11 1.58 .301 82 123 5.20 0.0 Mark Woodyard
Dillon Tate 471 5.31 3.66 1.39 .303 78 128 5.38 0.0 Jake Joseph
Gabriel Ynoa 599 5.17 2.19 1.53 .307 79 127 5.07 0.0 Nick Blackburn
Zach Muckenhirn 283 7.22 4.76 1.01 .302 87 114 4.79 0.0 Philip Barzilla
Keegan Akin 531 7.53 4.81 1.55 .299 78 128 5.50 0.0 Scott Forster
Austin Brice 263 7.43 3.49 1.37 .298 86 116 4.84 -0.1 Jimmy Myers
Luis H. Gonzalez 284 8.00 4.43 1.43 .301 86 116 5.10 -0.1 Philip Barzilla
Pedro Araujo 193 9.28 4.85 1.48 .302 82 121 5.05 -0.1 Josh Kinney
Eddie Gamboa 355 5.92 5.45 1.30 .295 76 132 5.69 -0.2 Lou Kretlow
Andrew Faulkner 255 6.87 5.40 1.15 .300 82 122 5.24 -0.2 Philip Barzilla
Sean Gilmartin 356 6.13 3.06 1.70 .305 77 131 5.42 -0.3 Clyde Wright
Luis Ortiz 430 6.11 3.43 1.81 .307 75 133 5.72 -0.3 Tim Dixon
Joely Rodriguez 251 6.75 4.45 1.32 .304 79 126 5.25 -0.3 Brian Adams
David Hess 598 6.39 3.60 1.84 .296 75 133 5.76 -0.3 Dana Kiecker
Evan Phillips 258 9.85 5.40 1.59 .302 77 130 5.21 -0.4 Kevin Rychel
Lucas Long 482 5.18 2.59 1.76 .304 75 134 5.56 -0.4 Eddie Bonine
Yefry Ramirez 547 7.59 4.17 1.79 .296 74 136 5.60 -0.5 Mark Carper
Brian Gonzalez 543 5.60 4.90 1.48 .304 73 137 5.86 -0.5 Matt Coenen
Jay Flaa 246 8.25 6.19 1.72 .295 71 140 6.04 -0.7 Scott Schoeneweis
Jordan Kipper 478 4.33 3.20 1.73 .307 71 141 5.93 -0.7 Pat Ahearne
Matthew Grimes 416 5.20 3.90 1.70 .304 71 142 5.92 -0.7 Wes Wilkerson
Tim Melville 444 6.16 4.45 2.08 .302 66 152 6.43 -1.2 John Kelly

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2019. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams, unless I have made a mistake. This is very possible, as a lot of minor-league signings go generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS’ projections are based on the American League having a 4.29 ERA and the National League having a 4.15 ERA.

Players who are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information, and a computer isn’t the tool that should project the injury status of, for example, a pitcher who has had Tommy John surgery.

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR.

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Dan Szymborski is a senior writer for FanGraphs and the developer of the ZiPS projection system. He was a writer for ESPN.com from 2010-2018, a regular guest on a number of radio shows and podcasts, and a voting BBWAA member. He also maintains a terrible Twitter account at @DSzymborski.

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HappyFunBall
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HappyFunBall

Forget the random good player on a bad team that gives you someone fun to watch if you “luck” into tickets . There isn’t even a single player on the O’s who projects to a league average 2.0. Bundy and Cobb aspire to that if they manage to have good seasons.

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