Meg Rowley FanGraphs Chat – 1/22/19

Meg Rowley: Dear readers, a moment. I have to sort out a small editorial matter and then will be right with you.

Meg Rowley: Appreciate your patience.

Meg Rowley: Hello, and welcome to the chat.

Lunar verLander: Do you think there will be another free agent spring training camp like there was last year?

Meg Rowley: I wouldn’t be surprised, although I don’t have a great beat on how effective players thought that was last year, and of course it all depends on the timing of signings.

Meg Rowley: Players are understandably agitated about this winter not course correcting last year. They are increasingly vocal about their objections.

Stinky Cheddar: Looking at ceiling only, who are some lesser known potential studs in the minors? I am thinking along the lines of Brujan, Rocchio, Luciano.

Meg Rowley: Perhaps this is because my head is still full of the Rays list, but my impulse is one of the seeming thousands of Rays middle infielders.

Meg Rowley: As an aside, you should read the Rays list after this chat. It is a work of great depth and attention: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/top-54-prospects-tampa-bay-rays/

Meg Rowley: Eric and Kiley always impress me with the breadth and depth of their knowledge, and industry resources, but this list takes it to another level. They are wonderful maniacs.

Jon Jackie Bon Bradley Jovi Jr: I play in a H2H Points league that changed the values of Holds (previously 5 points) and Saves (previously 8 points) to be equal – both worth 7 points, I think this is great and a forward-thinking approach to valuing relievers. 1 – your thoughts on this, and 2 – who would be your top 5 holds only guys?

Meg Rowley: As a person who cares about you (not your team, that I super don’t care about, but you), I beg of your to ask any of our very smart and good fantasy experts.

Jimminy Crickets: How deep is too deep of a dynasty league? I’m playing in a 50 round, 20 teamer with 25 prospect slots. For a prospect hooligan like me, I love this, but I also feel the parity of the league will be impacted by the more ‘hard-core’ prospect hounds of us.

Meg Rowley: Ditto here.

Joao: We are now less than 3 weeks away from pitchers/catchers and less than a month away from full squad practices. Isn’t it insane neither Machado/Harper have signed? won’t they feel any urge knowing it hasn’t usually gone great for players that forego part of spring training?

Meg Rowley: I think they probably feel a strong urge to be paid what they are worth. If I were to guess on the urges of strangers, personal though they are, that would be my guess.

Meg Rowley: I also don’t think we know decisively how much missing some or all of spring training matters for players of this caliber. It hasn’t gone great for some guys, but some of those guys haven’t been great. Or 26.

Kiermaier’s Piercing Green Eyes: The Rays prospect article today has 54 people. You could make a bad 25-man MLB team out of them and still have a decent farm team left over. That is incredible.

Meg Rowley: It technically has 86 people if you include the Others of Note.

Meg Rowley: It’s one of the best and deepest systems in baseball. Perhaps *the* best. Eric thinks it is *the* best, and he’s a very smart sort of person.

Joe Joe: What is the MLB dangerous/poorly officiated playoff equivalent to the missed pass interference/targeting penalty in the Saints game?

Meg Rowley: I guess a really, really egregious ball/strike call? A horrifyingly bad replay review?

MadKyleDisease: Better insight into the promises and limit of American democracy; Karl Marx or Alexis de Tocqueville?

Meg Rowley: How optimistic do you feel about capitalism?

Edgar : Should I go to the HOF with an OKC hat??

Meg Rowley: Michael Baumann is mean, mean man. Mean man. The meanest.

Dorsal Finley: Have you ever played any baseball video games? If not, have they ever appealed to you?

Meg Rowley: I have not. I am not much of a video game person.

Meg Rowley: That isn’t meant as a knock on those who do enjoy them.

Meg Rowley: I just don’t.

AJ: Odds that Harper or Machado sign before spring training begins?

Meg Rowley: I think high, though decreasing every day!

Joao: I think the Yankees kinda blew it with the timing of their acquisitions. They could have kept Locastro had they done the Sonny Gray deal before, or waited on DJ Lemahieu. Kinda sucks, dont it?

Meg Rowley: It is always useful to recall how we little we actually know about how available alternate sequencing timelines are.

Big Kev: Padres ownership is catching heat for saying that they’re not going to spend until it makes a difference but isn’t that what most analysis have been saying they should do?

Meg Rowley: I think they’re catching heat for sounding like they are in love with debt servicing, which is a practical concern but one they could sound less enthusiastic about.

Marc: Status of the Kimbrel market? Is a reunion with the Red Sox a foregone conclusion or do the Phillies have a legitimate shot at him?

Meg Rowley: I still think he ends up back in Boston. Boston need to do… something here.

Meg Rowley: They aren’t rolling into opening day with the pen like this.

Bread Gardner: Can we please take a moment to feel good for Danny Farquhar?  In an off-season filled with so much… well, angst, I guess, it’s nice to have something unabashedly gleeful for once.

Meg Rowley: It is pretty wonderful.

Meg Rowley: I will always have a soft spot in my heart for him from his time in Seattle and to be able to do anything, let alone pitch again after that is remarkable. Not that I would have faulted him for being done– we tend to discount how good and reasonable a choice doing something different is in face of that sort of moment. But it is clear he wanted to keep going and I am glad he gets to.

Joe: He hasn’t traded EE yet so presumably he’s not done but how would you grade Dipo’s offseason so far?

Meg Rowley: I don’t think we’ll be able to grade this offseason for a while.

Meg Rowley: If this is the start of the next good core, it rocked. If not, it’ll set a bad franchise back another five years. I think they dramatically improved their farm from garbage to average, which isn’t a small jump, and I like this more recent deal, but it’s an incomplete for now.

M: Hi Meg! I continue to be REALLY confused by the dodgers. On the surface, i get the argument that they don’t need Harper THIS year, but if Harper were to take a one year 40 million contract, the Dodgers would probably snap him up, right? The dodgers are a very smart organization. Harper, to me, just seems like the smartest thing they could do, at least from a good-faith baseball (and marketing) position. Are the dodgers not operating in good-faith? IS this, like the ringer article suggests, a kind of baseball money laundering? Are the dodgers a more attractive investment when they are a less attractive baseball team? I know I’m being naive, but I really don’t root for the dodgers because of their savvy business decisions. Gross.

Meg Rowley: I haven’t read Zach’s piece yet (it is open in a tab!), so I can’t speak to the specifics of that argument, but I have been disappointed in their offseason. I don’t think signing Pollack would be a bad move, but you can just sign Harper, which would be a better move.

Meg Rowley: I think the broader point, that profit and winning are becoming increasingly decoupled from one another is one that we should all really, really worry about.

billsaints: Just watched Major League again, holy cow, that film had a couple of wincy moments that haven’t aged well at all. Namely Rene Rousso saying no to Tom Berenger 5 times but him stalking her into submission and using a naked picture of a ,heaven forbid, women in power as motivation to get a team to play. Still…’You put snot on the ball?’

Meg Rowley: Not a lot of late 80s comedies that have covered themselves in glory, tbh.

James: I feel like a lot of teams saw what Boston did with J.D. Martinez last year and are giving it a try themselves. There are going to be so many good players available come February.

Meg Rowley: Love too read and write and also care about baseball. Love too do it.

Kim: I think you said there was a 0% chance of this happening (which seems about right), but the longer Harper puzzlingly continues to not receive a hefty offer, do you think the Mariners creep into the 0.5% range of sneaking in and really committing to 2021 turnaround?

Meg Rowley: I still do not think so.

Dakota mckee: Would expansion solve some of the issues with the free agent squeezing? Surely the Montreal Nextpos or Portland Portlandians would be willing to pony up $300 mil for a Marquee player, or even $75 mil for a respectable veteran like mike moustakas?

Meg Rowley: More major league jobs inherently means more major leaguers getting paid, but how much I think would still be an issue.

Meg Rowley: I can imagine a lot of league minimum salaries and teams with smart, well-meaning front offices that try to cheaply build through the draft.

Meg Rowley: Getting a greater share of revenue to players requires a legislative solution.

Meg Rowley: Friends, a moment if you will, my cellular phone buzzes with a call from David Appelman

Meg Rowley: I have returned.

Meg Rowley: My apologies, all.

Chris: If you were to wager, who is the Padre’s opening day starter at 3B?

Meg Rowley: Not someone in the org now? I wonder if they end up in play on Moustakas.

Chris: Will you keep rooting for Zunino on the Rays?

Meg Rowley: Yup. He is very good at a thing I find super interesting (framing) and from everyone I know on the M’s beat and with the team, is one of the better humans you’ll meet. Easy to root for.

Chris: Give me some good news on the Padres, please

Meg Rowley: They have a stupidly deep farm, whose writeup will probably rival our Rays list.

Airport Banana: Which do you see as the most likely way for the Brewers to solve 2nd base in 2019: Stick it out with Perez/Spangenburg until Hiura/Dubon are ready, sign Moose to a one year deal and move Shaw to 2nd permanently, sign a utility-type FA like Harrison, or trade for Joe Panik/someone similar? Lots of options but it’s hard to feel great about any of them.

Meg Rowley: I’d like to see them make a move for Marwin Gonzalez.

Reagan: How do you expect the AL West to turn out?

Meg Rowley: A lot like it did last year, only with the Mariners being worse and the Angels being a little better.

Jesse: Hi Meg!

Meg Rowley: Hi!

Sloth: WIll Mike Mussina get in the hall today?  What is your prediction?

Meg Rowley: I think he justtttt misses and I am not happy about it

Meg Rowley: We will have shortly on FanGraphs dot com a further update on the publicly available vote from Adam and Anthony with the ballot tracker crew.

Aron: Are you surprised that Encarnacion hasn’t been traded?

Meg Rowley: With the slowness of the market, not really. Still expect it’ll happen.

Syndergaardians of the Galaxy : Although I’ve had a lifetime of anti-Yankee animus, I have to say that I think that Brian Cashman is the best GM in the game. Too bad that he’ll never win exec of the year, because everyone is biased against Yankee money, but I’m amazed by the deals the guy manages to make.

Meg Rowley: I cannot speak for you but I have found I am much happier as a human when I don’t care about that. You know what Brain Cashman’s exec of the year prize will be? A World Series ring.

Jesse: Love your chats – a few weeks back you mentioned that it didn’t seem right that Harper/Machado didn’t seem to be getting big deals, but why would owners want to go 10/300 based on the track record of these major deals? Wouldn’t something like 5/200 be more realistic? If not, why not? Thanks so much!

Meg Rowley: Most of those deals aren’t struck with 26 year olds.

Meg Rowley: I think Craig’s piece on what ARod’s deal would look like today is instructive https://blogs.fangraphs.com/what-alex-rodriguezs-contract-would-look-l…

Hello : Who are the 2 wildcards in the AL? Angels? Twins? Rays? Athletics? Yankees/Sox?

Meg Rowley: Woof if I had to pick right now?

Meg Rowley: Today?

Meg Rowley: This minute!

Meg Rowley: Red Sox and Rays. I think I like the Yankees better to win the division, and I like the Red Sox and Rays better than the A’s or Angels I guess?

Meg Rowley: or the Twins

Syndergaardians of the Galaxy : It worries me that a lot of writers out there seem to be looking forward to an MLBPA strike. I’m a union member myself, someone who wants to see an end to the draft and players getting screwed, but I really hope a strike can somehow be avoided. Strikes are really hard.

Meg Rowley: I don’t most of us are looking forward to a strike, but I think many of us acknowledge some kind of stoppage is likely, and also that unions ought to engage in advocacy for their members rather than prioritizing labor peace at their members’ expense.

Meg Rowley: I run a baseball site. Our site is easier to run when there is more to talk about. A stoppage will be hard editorially, but also, the editorial comfort of FanGraphs doesn’t really factor for the union here.

Meg Rowley: (nor should it)

Todd: Do you feel that GMs who speak publicly about budget restraints are often just leveraging possible deals that they have in the works? When Eppler, for instance, talks about stretching the budget to get Cody Allen, is he using that behind the scenes to convince a player to sign for less than they’re worth? I guess I’m asking: how much of it is posturing?

Meg Rowley: I think there is absolutely some of that, and of course all of these team, in a broader sense could spend more. There is wiggle room in budgets, but teams do manage to a number.

Billy Beans: Crazy how Stowers was a reach pick when he was with the Mariners but a toolsy high-ceiling prospect on the Yankees. Yankees development system #1!

Meg Rowley: I don’t think that’s the public narrative among analysts, though similar to the awards thing, I find my greatest moments of peace when I am able to tune out other people liking the things they like in intensely annoying ways.

Refuse_To_Lose: It’s remarkable that the 54(!)-person doesn’t include anyone the M’s traded to the Rays (though many do appear in the Others of Note section)

Meg Rowley: Osmy Gregorio came in at 54.

Meg Rowley: wait

Meg Rowley: Pardon me, 49

Meg Rowley: Apologies Osmy, I shall not underrate you like Jerry did.

Greg Briley: What’s your take on Harold Baines getting in the HOF via the veterans committee? Do you think it will lead to BBWAA voters giving additional consideration to less worthy candidates?

Meg Rowley: I’m optimistic it won’t be a problem.

Meg Rowley: It was an obviously goofy choice made by a different electorate.

Dylan: Do you think Paul Goldschmidt is actually interested in signing an extension before the season starts? His last extension really underpaid him.

Meg Rowley: As much as this market is likely scaring guys, I imagine it would have to be a hefty sum to tempt him not to test the market.

Cove Dweller: What are some strike-worthy “must haves” that the MLBPA should be seeking in the next CBA negotiations?

Meg Rowley: You have to get money to players sooner; you need to raise the minimum salary. You probably want an agreed upon rev split.

CamdenWarehouse: How many tabs do you have open right now?

Meg Rowley: So so many

Meg Rowley: 15?

Meg Rowley: Enough to make the flashing of various messages less noticeable while I chat?

steve: I’m seeing veteran players complaining about Harper and Machado not having signed yet, perhaps insinuating foul play or collusion among the owners and front offices. I have not interest in taking the side of the owners in this tug of war, but I can’t stand listening to athletes complain about money, either. There have been so many terrible contracts over the years. Can you contextualize this for me so my reaction isn’t as visceral when players complain publicly about money?

Meg Rowley: No amount of money paid or not paid to a player will change what it cost you to go to a baseball game. It will not make the beer cheaper. You won’t be able to afford a better seat. It makes no difference.

Meg Rowley: There have been bad deals, yes. But consider that Manny Machado has made a little over $34 million in his career to date. He’s already been worth 30 WAR.

Meg Rowley: Or to put it another way, part of why I wanted to do this job was that watching peak Felix Hernandez throw a changeup, a really good changeup, a 2014 Felix changeup made me feel something in the tips of my fingers and behind my eyeballs. I *felt* that pitch. Name an owner who has ever done that for you as a fan.

ChickenOfTheSea: I enjoyed the piece on the Rays prospects, but “Grant Witherspoon” is not a ballplayer. He is a Masterpiece Mystery character who stands to come into a great fortune and will stop at nothing to do away with a meddling vicar. My question: what’s his weapon of choice?

Meg Rowley: A weird poison or somehow, a goose.

Meg Rowley: #bringbackNotGraphs

Refuse_To_Lose: Was Appleman giving live feedback on the chat?

Meg Rowley: He was not– he was rescheduling a meeting. He is Very Busy.

AP: Would salary cap alleviate or exacerbate the current issues with the free agent market?

Meg Rowley: We effectively have a cap now, and ummm it isn’t good out there. Players want to make more; a cap limits how much teams can spend. Gasoline, fire, etc.

Dave: Is the Imperial March your ringtone for Appelman?

Meg Rowley: Nah, David is a nice person and good, fair boss.

Keefths: You think German Marquez is legit ?

Meg Rowley: I think so, which, man, good for German, you pitch on the moon.

Dub: What time will they announce the HOF inductees?

Meg Rowley: 6:15 eastern!

Meg Rowley: Alright pals, rather than continuing to drop in and out of the chat with editorial stuff, I will take my leave.

Meg Rowley: My apologies for what I didn’t get to, and thank you for all the great questions.

Meg Rowley: Until next week, have a great day and Go Edgar.