2019 ZiPS Projections – Minnesota Twins

After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for more than half a decade. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Minnesota Twins.

Batters

In a league that is largely dominated by teams at the extremes of winning and rebuilding, the Minnesota Twins represent an increasingly rare breed: the excruciatingly, unbearably, average team. If you look at the lineup from top to bottom, there just aren’t any horrible weaknesses, with the bottom of the ZiPS ranks (Jorge Polanco, and the catching and first base timeshares) still living in the neighborhood of league-average; no scary negatives or zero-point-somethings lurk in there. But the highs aren’t really that high, either; Nelson Cruz tops the projections at 2.6 WAR, thanks to a .266/.348/.500 line. That’s the lowest top projected offensive WAR for any team that hopes to be a realistic contender in 2019.

This situation is not entirely the team’s fault, of course. ZiPS, like the Twins and most prospect-watchers, thought that Byron Buxton and Miguel Sano would, by this point, be players who formed the core of Minnesota’s lineup. There are a number of valid criticisms of how the Twins have managed Buxton and Sano, especially the former. Buxton’s inconsistent performance has been maddening, but so has the team’s tendency to go back-and-forth on whether he needed to be in the majors or the minors at any given time. His regular injuries add another frustrating complication. ZiPS has generally been optimistic about Buxton’s future, even when he’s struggled in the majors, but at this point, it’s only buying him as a league-average overall performer thanks to his excellent glove. It’s a good thing I don’t believe in curses; several years ago, I noted that ZiPS was rather cruel in assigning Carlos Gomez as Buxton’s top offensive comp, but it’s been more on-target than a computer can understand.

One of the problems with having a team full of average players is that it becomes damned hard to upgrade. There’s nowhere in the lineup where the Twins can be improved by any significant margin by adding a two-win player; really, even a three-win player would be an underwhelming addition at most positions. To upgrade the team’s offense, they need to add a legitimate star. And if that’s less likely to come by way of giant breakouts from Sano or Buxton than it once appeared, money becomes the best option in the short-term. After chasing Yu Darvish last year, I thought the Twins might sneakily be real players in the free agent market this offseason, but they really haven’t been. In a division with three rebuilding teams and a Cleveland squad whose plan in the outfield includes a heavy dose of Jordan Luplow, it feels like Minnesota should be more carpe diem and less dimitte diem.

Pitchers

The theme of being largely average continues with the pitching staff. Only Jose Berrios (at 14-10, 3.93, and 3.2 WAR) really pushes out of that middling range in the rotation. While his 2018 looked vaguely similar to his 2017, Berrios bumped up his strikes by a batter a game, and it still feels like that he has some ceiling left, even if ZiPS sees him continuing to pitch at about the same level. Berrios’s changeup has always looked nastier than it’s actually played on the field. I can’t speak for Twins fans, but to me, it’s looked like a pitch that should have struck out more than a mere 15 batters (against 11 home runs) in the right-hander’s brief career.

ZiPS remains unexcited about Blake Parker — one of the Twin’s “big” offseason moves — getting the highest-leverage innings, and instead sees Taylor Rogers or Trevor May (higher upside) as being better suited for the role. The projections are also bullish on Andrew Vasquez, a big lefty who serves up more sliders than White Castle and who rose from the Florida State League to the American League in ten weeks. But overall, the back of the bullpen looks shallower than other contenders’ and the highs are not quite as high. Of the teams that look to be around .500 or better, ZiPS projects Minnesota’s bullpen to be around the bottom, along with the Washington Nationals.

Bench and Prospects

Nick Gordon‘s offensive development has been a bit spotty, but ZiPS still sees him as a league-average regular in his prime, on the level of a slightly-better Polanco. That’s fine, but Royce Lewis’s projection is more exciting, with ZiPS seeing him peak as a 20-25 home run hitter, with projected lines in the .260/.330/.460 range, which will still work if he ends up playing center field rather than short in the majors. He even projects as useful if he were to play in the bigs this year, which is an impressive feat for a player with two months of Hi-A experience. As for Alex Kirilloff, while ZiPS doesn’t see him ever being a high-OBP player when his batting average inevitably comes down, his prime projections check in with just over a .280 batting average, with slugging percentages peeking just over the .500 mark.

One pedantic note for 2019: for the WAR graphic, I’m using FanGraphs’ depth chart playing time, not the playing time ZiPS spits out, so there will be occasional differences in WAR totals.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site.

Batters – Counting Stats
Player B Age PO G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS
Nelson Cruz R 38 DH 131 474 65 126 19 1 30 101 50 113 1 0
Max Kepler L 26 RF 147 516 74 127 31 5 20 70 61 107 6 4
Eddie Rosario L 27 LF 148 565 84 156 30 5 23 78 30 117 9 5
Willians Astudillo R 27 C 102 364 40 102 18 1 15 49 9 18 4 4
Jonathan Schoop R 27 2B 150 561 74 146 31 1 25 90 26 140 1 1
Byron Buxton R 25 CF 116 403 54 95 18 5 12 45 28 136 17 2
Miguel Sano R 26 3B 112 411 60 93 19 1 25 70 56 176 1 0
C.J. Cron R 29 1B 135 475 59 123 27 2 24 80 32 119 2 2
Logan Forsythe R 32 2B 121 401 51 98 20 1 8 39 51 102 4 2
Jorge Polanco B 25 SS 118 456 54 120 23 5 10 61 35 89 10 6
Nick Gordon L 23 SS 138 561 61 138 25 6 7 50 33 132 16 6
Jake Cave L 26 CF 132 486 67 120 23 4 17 63 37 160 5 3
Jason Castro L 32 C 89 280 32 58 14 1 7 28 35 99 0 0
Logan Morrison L 31 1B 113 374 50 87 17 1 20 59 47 98 3 1
Taylor Motter R 29 3B 110 384 47 88 21 1 13 48 36 90 13 6
Luis Arraez L 22 2B 119 455 49 122 19 4 4 37 27 60 3 4
Joe Mauer L 36 1B 121 459 56 124 25 2 6 47 52 85 1 1
Tyler Austin R 27 1B 109 385 51 89 21 2 21 64 35 144 3 2
Mitch Garver R 28 C 106 356 43 83 21 2 8 46 37 99 1 1
Lucas Duda L 33 1B 103 338 40 76 18 0 18 57 39 115 1 0
LaMonte Wade L 25 LF 113 424 54 104 14 3 9 41 51 86 8 3
Royce Lewis R 20 SS 118 481 57 112 21 3 12 50 32 109 19 8
Alex Kirilloff L 21 RF 128 511 62 138 30 3 17 68 27 110 3 3
Ehire Adrianza B 29 SS 106 296 36 72 16 1 5 34 23 66 5 2
Wynston Sawyer R 27 C 66 223 27 52 11 0 5 22 23 62 2 2
Dean Anna L 32 2B 115 412 49 100 16 2 2 31 41 65 5 5
Ronald Torreyes R 26 2B 91 273 28 72 13 2 1 21 12 36 1 1
Zach Granite L 26 CF 105 391 45 97 13 3 3 28 29 56 18 8
Brian Schales R 23 3B 129 438 49 98 20 3 9 47 44 128 3 3
Michael Reed R 26 CF 107 357 49 77 16 1 10 37 54 136 10 5
Tomas Telis B 28 C 104 346 40 90 14 2 4 35 20 45 3 2
Brian Navarreto R 24 C 98 348 30 72 15 0 4 25 12 76 0 1
Jermaine Curtis R 31 3B 67 223 27 49 9 0 3 18 27 54 3 1
Jeremy Hazelbaker L 31 CF 102 296 36 61 13 3 10 35 28 117 10 2
Jordan Gore B 24 SS 101 344 36 76 11 2 3 25 29 104 4 2
Brent Rooker R 24 1B 125 489 62 110 24 2 21 67 41 167 4 2
Leonardo Reginatto R 29 3B 93 329 31 76 13 1 3 26 18 76 4 4
Luke Raley L 24 1B 118 475 59 107 17 7 12 50 30 166 4 1
Drew Maggi R 30 2B 84 286 29 63 12 1 2 20 22 77 11 6
Wilin Rosario R 30 1B 114 419 50 104 22 1 16 63 23 104 5 3
Andy Wilkins L 30 1B 80 276 34 56 13 1 13 40 27 96 2 0
Randy Cesar R 24 3B 115 449 46 106 18 1 7 40 27 144 2 2
Jordany Valdespin L 31 2B 68 227 25 55 9 2 3 19 16 43 7 4
Adam Rosales R 36 2B 117 324 36 67 15 1 9 36 24 100 2 3
Mike Olt R 30 3B 84 290 33 56 12 0 10 31 32 117 0 0
Jaylin Davis R 24 RF 118 445 47 93 18 2 12 45 30 169 6 3
Zander Wiel R 26 1B 122 469 52 103 22 3 12 51 38 134 5 2
Edgar Corcino B 27 RF 105 394 41 94 17 3 7 37 26 94 3 2
Jordan Pacheco R 33 C 58 147 12 29 6 0 1 9 10 33 0 0

 

Batters – Rate Stats
Player PA BA OBP SLG OPS+ ISO BABIP RC/27 Def WAR No. 1 Comp
Nelson Cruz 540 .266 .348 .500 127 .234 .290 6.4 0 2.6 Joe Adcock
Max Kepler 586 .246 .328 .442 107 .196 .275 5.2 6 2.2 Robin Jennings
Eddie Rosario 602 .276 .310 .469 108 .193 .313 5.4 7 2.2 Rondell White
Willians Astudillo 385 .280 .307 .459 104 .179 .263 5.2 3 2.0 Bengie Molina
Jonathan Schoop 601 .260 .300 .453 101 .193 .306 4.9 0 2.0 Kevin Kouzmanoff
Byron Buxton 440 .236 .291 .395 84 .159 .325 4.4 11 1.9 Reggie Sanders
Miguel Sano 471 .226 .321 .460 109 .234 .324 5.2 -3 1.7 Mark Reynolds
C.J. Cron 523 .259 .317 .476 111 .217 .298 5.5 0 1.5 Larry Sheets
Logan Forsythe 461 .244 .336 .359 90 .115 .309 4.3 1 1.2 Dick Green
Jorge Polanco 501 .263 .316 .401 93 .138 .308 4.6 -4 1.1 Kurt Stillwell
Nick Gordon 603 .246 .292 .349 74 .103 .310 3.7 6 1.0 Carlos Garcia
Jake Cave 533 .247 .303 .416 93 .169 .333 4.5 -2 1.0 LaVel Freeman
Jason Castro 319 .207 .299 .339 73 .132 .293 3.5 6 1.0 Jerry Goff
Logan Morrison 428 .233 .325 .444 106 .211 .262 5.1 -1 1.0 Carmelo Martinez
Taylor Motter 425 .229 .296 .391 85 .161 .267 4.1 3 0.9 Tom Brookens
Luis Arraez 493 .268 .309 .354 80 .086 .302 3.9 5 0.8 Martin Prado
Joe Mauer 517 .270 .345 .373 96 .102 .321 4.7 3 0.8 Mike Hargrove
Tyler Austin 426 .231 .298 .460 102 .229 .309 4.8 0 0.7 Jason Dubois
Mitch Garver 398 .233 .307 .371 83 .138 .301 4.0 -2 0.7 Chad Moeller
Lucas Duda 387 .225 .315 .438 102 .213 .283 4.8 0 0.7 Graham Koonce
LaMonte Wade 486 .245 .330 .356 87 .111 .289 4.3 2 0.5 Trevor Penn
Royce Lewis 522 .233 .286 .364 75 .131 .278 3.7 0 0.5 Asdrubal Cabrera
Alex Kirilloff 545 .270 .306 .440 100 .170 .315 4.9 -5 0.4 Jose Guillen
Ehire Adrianza 328 .243 .299 .355 77 .111 .298 3.8 -1 0.3 Doug Strange
Wynston Sawyer 253 .233 .316 .350 81 .117 .301 3.8 -3 0.2 Bob Henley
Dean Anna 468 .243 .320 .306 72 .063 .284 3.4 2 0.2 Don Blasingame
Ronald Torreyes 291 .264 .294 .337 71 .073 .301 3.6 3 0.2 Mario Diaz
Zach Granite 428 .248 .302 .320 70 .072 .283 3.5 3 0.1 Leo Garcia
Brian Schales 491 .224 .300 .345 75 .121 .296 3.5 0 0.1 Pedro Castellano
Michael Reed 417 .216 .321 .350 83 .134 .318 3.9 -6 0.0 Todd Self
Tomas Telis 373 .260 .305 .347 77 .087 .290 3.8 -4 0.0 Kirt Manwaring
Brian Navarreto 368 .207 .243 .284 43 .078 .254 2.3 11 0.0 Alex Sutherland
Jermaine Curtis 261 .220 .323 .300 72 .081 .277 3.4 -1 -0.1 Rico Rossy
Jeremy Hazelbaker 328 .206 .278 .372 75 .166 .302 3.7 -2 -0.1 Dewayne Wise
Jordan Gore 380 .221 .281 .291 56 .070 .308 2.8 3 -0.2 Adam Haley
Brent Rooker 537 .225 .291 .411 88 .186 .296 4.2 -4 -0.4 Kevin Eberwein
Leonardo Reginatto 356 .231 .275 .304 58 .073 .292 2.8 4 -0.4 Steve Sisco
Luke Raley 525 .225 .291 .366 77 .141 .320 3.8 1 -0.4 Otis Green
Drew Maggi 316 .220 .284 .290 57 .070 .295 2.8 1 -0.5 Ray Holbert
Wilin Rosario 451 .248 .295 .420 91 .172 .294 4.4 -6 -0.5 Tom Nevers
Andy Wilkins 308 .203 .276 .399 80 .196 .257 3.8 -2 -0.5 Jay Gainer
Randy Cesar 480 .236 .279 .327 64 .091 .332 3.2 1 -0.5 Jack Hannahan
Jordany Valdespin 249 .242 .300 .339 74 .097 .287 3.6 -7 -0.6 Luis Maza
Adam Rosales 357 .207 .265 .343 64 .136 .270 3.0 -1 -0.7 Shane Halter
Mike Olt 327 .193 .276 .338 66 .145 .282 3.1 -4 -0.7 Jose Santos
Jaylin Davis 483 .209 .266 .339 63 .130 .307 3.1 4 -0.9 Daniel Carte
Zander Wiel 516 .220 .283 .356 72 .136 .282 3.5 0 -1.0 Brian Turner
Edgar Corcino 426 .239 .287 .350 72 .112 .297 3.5 -3 -1.0 Ed Yacopino
Jordan Pacheco 161 .197 .255 .259 41 .061 .248 2.2 -6 -1.0 Chad Moeller

 

Pitchers – Counting Stats
Player T Age W L ERA G GS IP H ER HR BB SO
Jose Berrios R 25 14 10 3.93 32 32 183.3 169 80 22 59 181
Kyle Gibson R 31 11 10 4.48 29 29 170.7 178 85 22 65 135
Jake Odorizzi R 29 9 8 4.45 30 30 153.7 148 76 22 59 136
Zack Littell R 23 9 8 4.57 30 22 141.7 152 72 17 53 109
Martin Perez L 28 8 7 4.58 26 22 129.7 144 66 13 45 79
Fernando Romero R 24 8 7 4.64 25 22 132.0 143 68 16 47 91
Ervin Santana R 36 7 7 4.61 21 21 121.0 124 62 19 36 90
Lewis Thorpe L 23 7 7 4.67 24 23 113.7 119 59 17 42 102
Taylor Rogers L 28 3 2 3.22 70 0 67.0 61 24 5 19 63
Kohl Stewart R 24 6 6 4.80 27 22 131.3 142 70 14 58 86
Adalberto Mejia L 26 6 6 4.41 22 20 100.0 106 49 12 35 77
Stephen Gonsalves L 24 9 9 4.84 28 24 124.7 126 67 13 72 104
Michael Pineda R 30 5 4 4.50 15 15 80.0 88 40 12 21 72
Devin Smeltzer L 23 6 6 4.78 31 17 107.3 124 57 17 28 79
Andrew Vasquez L 25 3 2 3.68 46 1 66.0 57 27 6 31 76
D.J. Baxendale R 28 3 3 4.63 32 11 79.7 89 41 10 24 52
Gabriel Moya L 24 3 3 4.23 64 8 76.7 74 36 10 27 71
Sean Poppen R 25 7 7 4.95 25 21 116.3 130 64 16 42 80
Trevor Hildenberger R 28 5 4 4.00 65 0 69.7 69 31 9 19 64
Cody Stashak R 25 3 3 4.76 30 9 73.7 78 39 11 25 60
Blake Parker R 34 2 1 3.88 61 0 58.0 53 25 8 20 62
Addison Reed R 30 4 3 3.94 63 0 61.7 64 27 7 16 50
Trevor May R 29 3 2 3.86 49 0 44.3 41 19 5 19 48
Tyler Duffey R 28 5 5 4.31 57 1 79.3 82 38 10 23 68
Ryne Harper R 30 3 3 3.95 37 0 57.0 56 25 7 17 55
Randy LeBlanc R 27 6 6 5.18 19 14 83.3 95 48 10 31 47
Tyler Wells R 24 7 8 5.29 22 21 102.0 110 60 18 39 83
Mike Morin R 28 3 3 4.37 48 2 57.7 62 28 7 15 45
Justin Nicolino L 27 6 8 5.26 27 24 131.7 164 77 22 39 71
Adam Bray R 26 3 3 5.03 24 9 77.0 93 43 15 18 55
Kevin Comer R 26 3 3 4.58 47 1 57.0 59 29 7 27 50
Matt Belisle R 39 1 1 4.40 43 0 45.0 47 22 6 12 34
Alan Busenitz R 28 4 4 4.79 49 2 67.7 73 36 10 24 56
Jake Reed R 26 2 2 4.74 36 1 49.3 49 26 6 24 41
Preston Guilmet R 31 1 1 4.66 36 1 46.3 48 24 8 13 43
Ryan Eades R 27 4 4 5.38 31 10 80.3 88 48 12 34 59
Dario Alvarez L 30 2 2 4.58 38 0 37.3 36 19 5 21 39
Austin D. Adams R 32 2 2 4.91 30 1 33.0 35 18 4 17 27
Dan Camarena L 26 6 8 5.62 24 23 117.0 140 73 20 46 74
Luke Bard R 28 3 3 4.73 40 0 59.0 60 31 8 27 54
Jorge Alcala R 23 6 8 5.62 24 17 91.3 99 57 14 59 71
Chris Gimenez R 36 0 0 9.00 4 0 4.0 6 4 2 0 1
Pat Dean L 30 5 7 5.76 18 15 89.0 115 57 15 25 41
Dusten Knight R 28 3 3 5.02 35 1 57.3 62 32 10 24 49
Matt Magill R 29 3 3 4.94 45 0 58.3 59 32 10 28 56
Tim Collins L 29 3 3 5.24 59 0 44.7 45 26 6 29 42
Chase De Jong R 25 7 9 5.76 29 27 148.3 178 95 29 53 89
Tyler Jay L 25 5 6 5.66 34 8 76.3 90 48 13 31 46
Zack Weiss R 27 3 4 5.54 33 1 37.3 39 23 7 22 35
Jeff Ames R 28 2 3 6.17 38 1 46.7 48 32 9 36 47

 

Pitchers – Rate Stats
Player TBF K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BABIP ERA+ ERA- FIP WAR No. 1 Comp
Jose Berrios 778 8.89 2.90 1.08 .292 111 90 3.91 3.2 Jack Morris
Kyle Gibson 747 7.12 3.43 1.16 .300 98 103 4.47 2.0 Omar Olivares
Jake Odorizzi 661 7.97 3.46 1.29 .286 98 102 4.47 1.9 Roger Bailey
Zack Littell 628 6.92 3.37 1.08 .307 96 105 4.48 1.5 Aaron Cook
Martin Perez 570 5.48 3.12 0.90 .305 95 105 4.35 1.4 Jim O’Toole
Fernando Romero 586 6.20 3.20 1.09 .301 94 106 4.64 1.3 Cha-Seung Baek
Ervin Santana 519 6.69 2.68 1.41 .285 95 105 4.72 1.3 Bob Forsch
Lewis Thorpe 500 8.08 3.33 1.35 .306 94 107 4.57 1.1 Danny Borrell
Taylor Rogers 279 8.46 2.55 0.67 .296 136 74 3.22 1.1 Sparky Lyle
Kohl Stewart 592 5.89 3.97 0.96 .300 91 110 4.73 1.1 Rick Berg
Adalberto Mejia 438 6.93 3.15 1.08 .304 96 104 4.37 1.1 Scott Sauerbeck
Stephen Gonsalves 569 7.51 5.20 0.94 .302 90 111 4.71 1.0 Jimmy Anderson
Michael Pineda 345 8.10 2.36 1.35 .319 97 103 4.16 1.0 Brian Tollberg
Devin Smeltzer 472 6.62 2.35 1.43 .313 91 109 4.69 0.8 Kevin Pickford
Andrew Vasquez 287 10.36 4.23 0.82 .302 119 84 3.67 0.8 Buzz Oliver
D.J. Baxendale 350 5.87 2.71 1.13 .304 94 106 4.53 0.6 Bill Fischer
Gabriel Moya 329 8.33 3.17 1.17 .294 100 100 4.17 0.6 Pat Clements
Sean Poppen 519 6.19 3.25 1.24 .305 86 117 4.83 0.6 Michael Macdonald
Trevor Hildenberger 296 8.27 2.45 1.16 .300 109 92 3.98 0.5 Jeff Tam
Cody Stashak 323 7.33 3.05 1.34 .300 92 109 4.64 0.5 Steve Parris
Blake Parker 246 9.62 3.10 1.24 .294 109 92 3.99 0.4 Steve Reed
Addison Reed 261 7.30 2.34 1.02 .305 107 93 3.83 0.4 Kent Tekulve
Trevor May 192 9.74 3.86 1.02 .305 113 88 3.87 0.4 Jason Bulger
Tyler Duffey 340 7.71 2.61 1.13 .305 101 99 4.06 0.4 Jose Santiago
Ryne Harper 243 8.68 2.68 1.11 .304 107 93 3.87 0.3 Terry Leach
Randy LeBlanc 374 5.08 3.35 1.08 .302 84 119 4.88 0.3 Brian Allard
Tyler Wells 453 7.32 3.44 1.59 .300 83 121 5.14 0.3 Carlos Crawford
Mike Morin 249 7.02 2.34 1.09 .307 100 100 4.10 0.3 Bill Fischer
Justin Nicolino 593 4.85 2.67 1.50 .312 80 124 5.27 0.2 Wade Blasingame
Adam Bray 341 6.43 2.10 1.75 .315 84 119 5.15 0.2 Dick Marlowe
Kevin Comer 256 7.89 4.26 1.11 .308 95 105 4.57 0.1 Mike Gardner
Matt Belisle 193 6.80 2.40 1.20 .295 96 104 4.31 0.0 Boom-Boom Beck
Alan Busenitz 298 7.45 3.19 1.33 .307 91 110 4.61 0.0 Rob Marquez
Jake Reed 219 7.48 4.38 1.09 .295 92 108 4.65 0.0 Ken Wright
Preston Guilmet 199 8.35 2.53 1.55 .301 91 110 4.51 0.0 Dan Giese
Ryan Eades 362 6.61 3.81 1.34 .302 81 123 5.08 0.0 Preston Larrison
Dario Alvarez 169 9.40 5.06 1.21 .304 92 108 4.65 0.0 Arnold Earley
Austin D. Adams 150 7.36 4.64 1.09 .307 89 112 4.73 0.0 Jerry Johnson
Dan Camarena 534 5.69 3.54 1.54 .309 78 128 5.44 0.0 Rich Rundles
Luke Bard 264 8.24 4.12 1.22 .304 92 108 4.66 -0.1 Sean Green
Jorge Alcala 430 7.00 5.81 1.38 .302 78 128 5.69 -0.1 Edwin Morel
Chris Gimenez 18 2.25 0.00 4.50 .267 49 206 9.15 -0.2 John Gardner
Pat Dean 402 4.15 2.53 1.52 .314 76 132 5.36 -0.2 Dave Gassner
Dusten Knight 257 7.69 3.77 1.57 .304 84 119 5.12 -0.2 John Koronka
Matt Magill 261 8.64 4.32 1.54 .299 86 117 5.05 -0.3 Kevin Gryboski
Tim Collins 207 8.46 5.84 1.21 .305 83 120 5.10 -0.3 Arnold Earley
Chase De Jong 671 5.40 3.22 1.76 .302 76 132 5.71 -0.3 Mark Ratekin
Tyler Jay 350 5.42 3.66 1.53 .303 77 129 5.61 -0.3 Wade Blasingame
Zack Weiss 172 8.44 5.30 1.69 .302 76 131 5.64 -0.4 Ryan Baker
Jeff Ames 224 9.06 6.94 1.74 .302 71 141 6.15 -0.7 Bart Evans

 

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2019. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams, unless I have made a mistake. This is very possible, as a lot of minor-league signings go generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS’ projections are based on the American League having a 4.29 ERA and the National League having a 4.15 ERA.

Players who are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information, and a computer isn’t the tool that should project the injury status of, for example, a pitcher who has had Tommy John surgery.

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR.

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Dan Szymborski is a senior writer for FanGraphs and the developer of the ZiPS projection system. He was a writer for ESPN.com from 2010-2018, a regular guest on a number of radio shows and podcasts, and a voting BBWAA member. He also maintains a terrible Twitter account at @DSzymborski.

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otis
Member
otis

Free Astudillo.

deb81162
Member
deb81162

I wonder how Willians Astudillo has so many AB’s projected, when he isn’t anywhere close to a starting or even backup position

Bip
Member
Member
Bip

ZiPS doesn’t project playing time or depth charts per se, I think it has more to do with injuries or durability. You know it’s not a depth chart because if you add up all the PA it always way too many. Zander Wiel, whoever that is, is not getting 516 PA with the Twins. The point is more, if he did, how would he play?

mwallach
Member
mwallach

yup, roster resource has him in the minors right now. the combo of them paying Jason castro a lot as well as Astudillo having minor league options left are the main culprits preventing us of Astudillo glory. The guy started a game in CF last year, so hopefully they keep him on the roster as a utility player or something

dl80
Member
dl80

And 2nd, 3rd, and LF! (well, he didn’t actually start in LF or CF, but he did play a few innings there)

Bryz
Member
Member

And he only played in LF and CF out of necessity, as the Twins were losing players to heat exhaustion against the Cubs and the team wanted Robbie Grossman in RF and Logan Morrison in LF.

sadtrombone
Member
sadtrombone

I think we should consider making a “FREE THIS GUY” team. Astudillo, Brandon Lowe, Jeff McNeil, Tyler O’Neill…

shep
Member
shep

Ryan McMahon

Bip
Member
Member
Bip

My Dodger choice might be Ross Stripling

johansantana17
Member
johansantana17

Alex Verdugo