2019 ZiPS Projections – Minnesota Twins by Dan Szymborski February 18, 2019 After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for more than half a decade. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Minnesota Twins. ZiPS Projections 2019 2018 ALBALCHWHOUBOSCLELAANYYDETOAKTBRKCRSEATORMINTEX NLATLCHCARIMIACINCOLNYMMILLADPHIPITSDPWSNSTLSFG ALBALCHWHOUBOSCLELAANYYDETOAKTBRKCRSEATORMINTEX NLATLCHCARIMIACINCOLNYMMILLADPHIPITSDPWSNSTLSFG Batters In a league that is largely dominated by teams at the extremes of winning and rebuilding, the Minnesota Twins represent an increasingly rare breed: the excruciatingly, unbearably, average team. If you look at the lineup from top to bottom, there just aren’t any horrible weaknesses, with the bottom of the ZiPS ranks (Jorge Polanco, and the catching and first base timeshares) still living in the neighborhood of league-average; no scary negatives or zero-point-somethings lurk in there. But the highs aren’t really that high, either; Nelson Cruz tops the projections at 2.6 WAR, thanks to a .266/.348/.500 line. That’s the lowest top projected offensive WAR for any team that hopes to be a realistic contender in 2019. This situation is not entirely the team’s fault, of course. ZiPS, like the Twins and most prospect-watchers, thought that Byron Buxton and Miguel Sano would, by this point, be players who formed the core of Minnesota’s lineup. There are a number of valid criticisms of how the Twins have managed Buxton and Sano, especially the former. Buxton’s inconsistent performance has been maddening, but so has the team’s tendency to go back-and-forth on whether he needed to be in the majors or the minors at any given time. His regular injuries add another frustrating complication. ZiPS has generally been optimistic about Buxton’s future, even when he’s struggled in the majors, but at this point, it’s only buying him as a league-average overall performer thanks to his excellent glove. It’s a good thing I don’t believe in curses; several years ago, I noted that ZiPS was rather cruel in assigning Carlos Gomez as Buxton’s top offensive comp, but it’s been more on-target than a computer can understand. One of the problems with having a team full of average players is that it becomes damned hard to upgrade. There’s nowhere in the lineup where the Twins can be improved by any significant margin by adding a two-win player; really, even a three-win player would be an underwhelming addition at most positions. To upgrade the team’s offense, they need to add a legitimate star. And if that’s less likely to come by way of giant breakouts from Sano or Buxton than it once appeared, money becomes the best option in the short-term. After chasing Yu Darvish last year, I thought the Twins might sneakily be real players in the free agent market this offseason, but they really haven’t been. In a division with three rebuilding teams and a Cleveland squad whose plan in the outfield includes a heavy dose of Jordan Luplow, it feels like Minnesota should be more carpe diem and less dimitte diem. Pitchers The theme of being largely average continues with the pitching staff. Only Jose Berrios (at 14-10, 3.93, and 3.2 WAR) really pushes out of that middling range in the rotation. While his 2018 looked vaguely similar to his 2017, Berrios bumped up his strikes by a batter a game, and it still feels like that he has some ceiling left, even if ZiPS sees him continuing to pitch at about the same level. Berrios’s changeup has always looked nastier than it’s actually played on the field. I can’t speak for Twins fans, but to me, it’s looked like a pitch that should have struck out more than a mere 15 batters (against 11 home runs) in the right-hander’s brief career. ZiPS remains unexcited about Blake Parker — one of the Twin’s “big” offseason moves — getting the highest-leverage innings, and instead sees Taylor Rogers or Trevor May (higher upside) as being better suited for the role. The projections are also bullish on Andrew Vasquez, a big lefty who serves up more sliders than White Castle and who rose from the Florida State League to the American League in ten weeks. But overall, the back of the bullpen looks shallower than other contenders’ and the highs are not quite as high. Of the teams that look to be around .500 or better, ZiPS projects Minnesota’s bullpen to be around the bottom, along with the Washington Nationals. Bench and Prospects Nick Gordon‘s offensive development has been a bit spotty, but ZiPS still sees him as a league-average regular in his prime, on the level of a slightly-better Polanco. That’s fine, but Royce Lewis’s projection is more exciting, with ZiPS seeing him peak as a 20-25 home run hitter, with projected lines in the .260/.330/.460 range, which will still work if he ends up playing center field rather than short in the majors. He even projects as useful if he were to play in the bigs this year, which is an impressive feat for a player with two months of Hi-A experience. As for Alex Kirilloff, while ZiPS doesn’t see him ever being a high-OBP player when his batting average inevitably comes down, his prime projections check in with just over a .280 batting average, with slugging percentages peeking just over the .500 mark. One pedantic note for 2019: for the WAR graphic, I’m using FanGraphs’ depth chart playing time, not the playing time ZiPS spits out, so there will be occasional differences in WAR totals. Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site. Batters – Counting Stats Player B Age PO G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS Nelson Cruz R 38 DH 131 474 65 126 19 1 30 101 50 113 1 0 Max Kepler L 26 RF 147 516 74 127 31 5 20 70 61 107 6 4 Eddie Rosario L 27 LF 148 565 84 156 30 5 23 78 30 117 9 5 Willians Astudillo R 27 C 102 364 40 102 18 1 15 49 9 18 4 4 Jonathan Schoop R 27 2B 150 561 74 146 31 1 25 90 26 140 1 1 Byron Buxton R 25 CF 116 403 54 95 18 5 12 45 28 136 17 2 Miguel Sano R 26 3B 112 411 60 93 19 1 25 70 56 176 1 0 C.J. Cron R 29 1B 135 475 59 123 27 2 24 80 32 119 2 2 Logan Forsythe R 32 2B 121 401 51 98 20 1 8 39 51 102 4 2 Jorge Polanco B 25 SS 118 456 54 120 23 5 10 61 35 89 10 6 Nick Gordon L 23 SS 138 561 61 138 25 6 7 50 33 132 16 6 Jake Cave L 26 CF 132 486 67 120 23 4 17 63 37 160 5 3 Jason Castro L 32 C 89 280 32 58 14 1 7 28 35 99 0 0 Logan Morrison L 31 1B 113 374 50 87 17 1 20 59 47 98 3 1 Taylor Motter R 29 3B 110 384 47 88 21 1 13 48 36 90 13 6 Luis Arraez L 22 2B 119 455 49 122 19 4 4 37 27 60 3 4 Joe Mauer L 36 1B 121 459 56 124 25 2 6 47 52 85 1 1 Tyler Austin R 27 1B 109 385 51 89 21 2 21 64 35 144 3 2 Mitch Garver R 28 C 106 356 43 83 21 2 8 46 37 99 1 1 Lucas Duda L 33 1B 103 338 40 76 18 0 18 57 39 115 1 0 LaMonte Wade L 25 LF 113 424 54 104 14 3 9 41 51 86 8 3 Royce Lewis R 20 SS 118 481 57 112 21 3 12 50 32 109 19 8 Alex Kirilloff L 21 RF 128 511 62 138 30 3 17 68 27 110 3 3 Ehire Adrianza B 29 SS 106 296 36 72 16 1 5 34 23 66 5 2 Wynston Sawyer R 27 C 66 223 27 52 11 0 5 22 23 62 2 2 Dean Anna L 32 2B 115 412 49 100 16 2 2 31 41 65 5 5 Ronald Torreyes R 26 2B 91 273 28 72 13 2 1 21 12 36 1 1 Zach Granite L 26 CF 105 391 45 97 13 3 3 28 29 56 18 8 Brian Schales R 23 3B 129 438 49 98 20 3 9 47 44 128 3 3 Michael Reed R 26 CF 107 357 49 77 16 1 10 37 54 136 10 5 Tomas Telis B 28 C 104 346 40 90 14 2 4 35 20 45 3 2 Brian Navarreto R 24 C 98 348 30 72 15 0 4 25 12 76 0 1 Jermaine Curtis R 31 3B 67 223 27 49 9 0 3 18 27 54 3 1 Jeremy Hazelbaker L 31 CF 102 296 36 61 13 3 10 35 28 117 10 2 Jordan Gore B 24 SS 101 344 36 76 11 2 3 25 29 104 4 2 Brent Rooker R 24 1B 125 489 62 110 24 2 21 67 41 167 4 2 Leonardo Reginatto R 29 3B 93 329 31 76 13 1 3 26 18 76 4 4 Luke Raley L 24 1B 118 475 59 107 17 7 12 50 30 166 4 1 Drew Maggi R 30 2B 84 286 29 63 12 1 2 20 22 77 11 6 Wilin Rosario R 30 1B 114 419 50 104 22 1 16 63 23 104 5 3 Andy Wilkins L 30 1B 80 276 34 56 13 1 13 40 27 96 2 0 Randy Cesar R 24 3B 115 449 46 106 18 1 7 40 27 144 2 2 Jordany Valdespin L 31 2B 68 227 25 55 9 2 3 19 16 43 7 4 Adam Rosales R 36 2B 117 324 36 67 15 1 9 36 24 100 2 3 Mike Olt R 30 3B 84 290 33 56 12 0 10 31 32 117 0 0 Jaylin Davis R 24 RF 118 445 47 93 18 2 12 45 30 169 6 3 Zander Wiel R 26 1B 122 469 52 103 22 3 12 51 38 134 5 2 Edgar Corcino B 27 RF 105 394 41 94 17 3 7 37 26 94 3 2 Jordan Pacheco R 33 C 58 147 12 29 6 0 1 9 10 33 0 0 Batters – Rate Stats Player PA BA OBP SLG OPS+ ISO BABIP RC/27 Def WAR No. 1 Comp Nelson Cruz 540 .266 .348 .500 127 .234 .290 6.4 0 2.6 Joe Adcock Max Kepler 586 .246 .328 .442 107 .196 .275 5.2 6 2.2 Robin Jennings Eddie Rosario 602 .276 .310 .469 108 .193 .313 5.4 7 2.2 Rondell White Willians Astudillo 385 .280 .307 .459 104 .179 .263 5.2 3 2.0 Bengie Molina Jonathan Schoop 601 .260 .300 .453 101 .193 .306 4.9 0 2.0 Kevin Kouzmanoff Byron Buxton 440 .236 .291 .395 84 .159 .325 4.4 11 1.9 Reggie Sanders Miguel Sano 471 .226 .321 .460 109 .234 .324 5.2 -3 1.7 Mark Reynolds C.J. Cron 523 .259 .317 .476 111 .217 .298 5.5 0 1.5 Larry Sheets Logan Forsythe 461 .244 .336 .359 90 .115 .309 4.3 1 1.2 Dick Green Jorge Polanco 501 .263 .316 .401 93 .138 .308 4.6 -4 1.1 Kurt Stillwell Nick Gordon 603 .246 .292 .349 74 .103 .310 3.7 6 1.0 Carlos Garcia Jake Cave 533 .247 .303 .416 93 .169 .333 4.5 -2 1.0 LaVel Freeman Jason Castro 319 .207 .299 .339 73 .132 .293 3.5 6 1.0 Jerry Goff Logan Morrison 428 .233 .325 .444 106 .211 .262 5.1 -1 1.0 Carmelo Martinez Taylor Motter 425 .229 .296 .391 85 .161 .267 4.1 3 0.9 Tom Brookens Luis Arraez 493 .268 .309 .354 80 .086 .302 3.9 5 0.8 Martin Prado Joe Mauer 517 .270 .345 .373 96 .102 .321 4.7 3 0.8 Mike Hargrove Tyler Austin 426 .231 .298 .460 102 .229 .309 4.8 0 0.7 Jason Dubois Mitch Garver 398 .233 .307 .371 83 .138 .301 4.0 -2 0.7 Chad Moeller Lucas Duda 387 .225 .315 .438 102 .213 .283 4.8 0 0.7 Graham Koonce LaMonte Wade 486 .245 .330 .356 87 .111 .289 4.3 2 0.5 Trevor Penn Royce Lewis 522 .233 .286 .364 75 .131 .278 3.7 0 0.5 Asdrubal Cabrera Alex Kirilloff 545 .270 .306 .440 100 .170 .315 4.9 -5 0.4 Jose Guillen Ehire Adrianza 328 .243 .299 .355 77 .111 .298 3.8 -1 0.3 Doug Strange Wynston Sawyer 253 .233 .316 .350 81 .117 .301 3.8 -3 0.2 Bob Henley Dean Anna 468 .243 .320 .306 72 .063 .284 3.4 2 0.2 Don Blasingame Ronald Torreyes 291 .264 .294 .337 71 .073 .301 3.6 3 0.2 Mario Diaz Zach Granite 428 .248 .302 .320 70 .072 .283 3.5 3 0.1 Leo Garcia Brian Schales 491 .224 .300 .345 75 .121 .296 3.5 0 0.1 Pedro Castellano Michael Reed 417 .216 .321 .350 83 .134 .318 3.9 -6 0.0 Todd Self Tomas Telis 373 .260 .305 .347 77 .087 .290 3.8 -4 0.0 Kirt Manwaring Brian Navarreto 368 .207 .243 .284 43 .078 .254 2.3 11 0.0 Alex Sutherland Jermaine Curtis 261 .220 .323 .300 72 .081 .277 3.4 -1 -0.1 Rico Rossy Jeremy Hazelbaker 328 .206 .278 .372 75 .166 .302 3.7 -2 -0.1 Dewayne Wise Jordan Gore 380 .221 .281 .291 56 .070 .308 2.8 3 -0.2 Adam Haley Brent Rooker 537 .225 .291 .411 88 .186 .296 4.2 -4 -0.4 Kevin Eberwein Leonardo Reginatto 356 .231 .275 .304 58 .073 .292 2.8 4 -0.4 Steve Sisco Luke Raley 525 .225 .291 .366 77 .141 .320 3.8 1 -0.4 Otis Green Drew Maggi 316 .220 .284 .290 57 .070 .295 2.8 1 -0.5 Ray Holbert Wilin Rosario 451 .248 .295 .420 91 .172 .294 4.4 -6 -0.5 Tom Nevers Andy Wilkins 308 .203 .276 .399 80 .196 .257 3.8 -2 -0.5 Jay Gainer Randy Cesar 480 .236 .279 .327 64 .091 .332 3.2 1 -0.5 Jack Hannahan Jordany Valdespin 249 .242 .300 .339 74 .097 .287 3.6 -7 -0.6 Luis Maza Adam Rosales 357 .207 .265 .343 64 .136 .270 3.0 -1 -0.7 Shane Halter Mike Olt 327 .193 .276 .338 66 .145 .282 3.1 -4 -0.7 Jose Santos Jaylin Davis 483 .209 .266 .339 63 .130 .307 3.1 4 -0.9 Daniel Carte Zander Wiel 516 .220 .283 .356 72 .136 .282 3.5 0 -1.0 Brian Turner Edgar Corcino 426 .239 .287 .350 72 .112 .297 3.5 -3 -1.0 Ed Yacopino Jordan Pacheco 161 .197 .255 .259 41 .061 .248 2.2 -6 -1.0 Chad Moeller Pitchers – Counting Stats Player T Age W L ERA G GS IP H ER HR BB SO Jose Berrios R 25 14 10 3.93 32 32 183.3 169 80 22 59 181 Kyle Gibson R 31 11 10 4.48 29 29 170.7 178 85 22 65 135 Jake Odorizzi R 29 9 8 4.45 30 30 153.7 148 76 22 59 136 Zack Littell R 23 9 8 4.57 30 22 141.7 152 72 17 53 109 Martin Perez L 28 8 7 4.58 26 22 129.7 144 66 13 45 79 Fernando Romero R 24 8 7 4.64 25 22 132.0 143 68 16 47 91 Ervin Santana R 36 7 7 4.61 21 21 121.0 124 62 19 36 90 Lewis Thorpe L 23 7 7 4.67 24 23 113.7 119 59 17 42 102 Taylor Rogers L 28 3 2 3.22 70 0 67.0 61 24 5 19 63 Kohl Stewart R 24 6 6 4.80 27 22 131.3 142 70 14 58 86 Adalberto Mejia L 26 6 6 4.41 22 20 100.0 106 49 12 35 77 Stephen Gonsalves L 24 9 9 4.84 28 24 124.7 126 67 13 72 104 Michael Pineda R 30 5 4 4.50 15 15 80.0 88 40 12 21 72 Devin Smeltzer L 23 6 6 4.78 31 17 107.3 124 57 17 28 79 Andrew Vasquez L 25 3 2 3.68 46 1 66.0 57 27 6 31 76 D.J. Baxendale R 28 3 3 4.63 32 11 79.7 89 41 10 24 52 Gabriel Moya L 24 3 3 4.23 64 8 76.7 74 36 10 27 71 Sean Poppen R 25 7 7 4.95 25 21 116.3 130 64 16 42 80 Trevor Hildenberger R 28 5 4 4.00 65 0 69.7 69 31 9 19 64 Cody Stashak R 25 3 3 4.76 30 9 73.7 78 39 11 25 60 Blake Parker R 34 2 1 3.88 61 0 58.0 53 25 8 20 62 Addison Reed R 30 4 3 3.94 63 0 61.7 64 27 7 16 50 Trevor May R 29 3 2 3.86 49 0 44.3 41 19 5 19 48 Tyler Duffey R 28 5 5 4.31 57 1 79.3 82 38 10 23 68 Ryne Harper R 30 3 3 3.95 37 0 57.0 56 25 7 17 55 Randy LeBlanc R 27 6 6 5.18 19 14 83.3 95 48 10 31 47 Tyler Wells R 24 7 8 5.29 22 21 102.0 110 60 18 39 83 Mike Morin R 28 3 3 4.37 48 2 57.7 62 28 7 15 45 Justin Nicolino L 27 6 8 5.26 27 24 131.7 164 77 22 39 71 Adam Bray R 26 3 3 5.03 24 9 77.0 93 43 15 18 55 Kevin Comer R 26 3 3 4.58 47 1 57.0 59 29 7 27 50 Matt Belisle R 39 1 1 4.40 43 0 45.0 47 22 6 12 34 Alan Busenitz R 28 4 4 4.79 49 2 67.7 73 36 10 24 56 Jake Reed R 26 2 2 4.74 36 1 49.3 49 26 6 24 41 Preston Guilmet R 31 1 1 4.66 36 1 46.3 48 24 8 13 43 Ryan Eades R 27 4 4 5.38 31 10 80.3 88 48 12 34 59 Dario Alvarez L 30 2 2 4.58 38 0 37.3 36 19 5 21 39 Austin D. Adams R 32 2 2 4.91 30 1 33.0 35 18 4 17 27 Dan Camarena L 26 6 8 5.62 24 23 117.0 140 73 20 46 74 Luke Bard R 28 3 3 4.73 40 0 59.0 60 31 8 27 54 Jorge Alcala R 23 6 8 5.62 24 17 91.3 99 57 14 59 71 Chris Gimenez R 36 0 0 9.00 4 0 4.0 6 4 2 0 1 Pat Dean L 30 5 7 5.76 18 15 89.0 115 57 15 25 41 Dusten Knight R 28 3 3 5.02 35 1 57.3 62 32 10 24 49 Matt Magill R 29 3 3 4.94 45 0 58.3 59 32 10 28 56 Tim Collins L 29 3 3 5.24 59 0 44.7 45 26 6 29 42 Chase De Jong R 25 7 9 5.76 29 27 148.3 178 95 29 53 89 Tyler Jay L 25 5 6 5.66 34 8 76.3 90 48 13 31 46 Zack Weiss R 27 3 4 5.54 33 1 37.3 39 23 7 22 35 Jeff Ames R 28 2 3 6.17 38 1 46.7 48 32 9 36 47 Pitchers – Rate Stats Player TBF K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BABIP ERA+ ERA- FIP WAR No. 1 Comp Jose Berrios 778 8.89 2.90 1.08 .292 111 90 3.91 3.2 Jack Morris Kyle Gibson 747 7.12 3.43 1.16 .300 98 103 4.47 2.0 Omar Olivares Jake Odorizzi 661 7.97 3.46 1.29 .286 98 102 4.47 1.9 Roger Bailey Zack Littell 628 6.92 3.37 1.08 .307 96 105 4.48 1.5 Aaron Cook Martin Perez 570 5.48 3.12 0.90 .305 95 105 4.35 1.4 Jim O’Toole Fernando Romero 586 6.20 3.20 1.09 .301 94 106 4.64 1.3 Cha-Seung Baek Ervin Santana 519 6.69 2.68 1.41 .285 95 105 4.72 1.3 Bob Forsch Lewis Thorpe 500 8.08 3.33 1.35 .306 94 107 4.57 1.1 Danny Borrell Taylor Rogers 279 8.46 2.55 0.67 .296 136 74 3.22 1.1 Sparky Lyle Kohl Stewart 592 5.89 3.97 0.96 .300 91 110 4.73 1.1 Rick Berg Adalberto Mejia 438 6.93 3.15 1.08 .304 96 104 4.37 1.1 Scott Sauerbeck Stephen Gonsalves 569 7.51 5.20 0.94 .302 90 111 4.71 1.0 Jimmy Anderson Michael Pineda 345 8.10 2.36 1.35 .319 97 103 4.16 1.0 Brian Tollberg Devin Smeltzer 472 6.62 2.35 1.43 .313 91 109 4.69 0.8 Kevin Pickford Andrew Vasquez 287 10.36 4.23 0.82 .302 119 84 3.67 0.8 Buzz Oliver D.J. Baxendale 350 5.87 2.71 1.13 .304 94 106 4.53 0.6 Bill Fischer Gabriel Moya 329 8.33 3.17 1.17 .294 100 100 4.17 0.6 Pat Clements Sean Poppen 519 6.19 3.25 1.24 .305 86 117 4.83 0.6 Michael Macdonald Trevor Hildenberger 296 8.27 2.45 1.16 .300 109 92 3.98 0.5 Jeff Tam Cody Stashak 323 7.33 3.05 1.34 .300 92 109 4.64 0.5 Steve Parris Blake Parker 246 9.62 3.10 1.24 .294 109 92 3.99 0.4 Steve Reed Addison Reed 261 7.30 2.34 1.02 .305 107 93 3.83 0.4 Kent Tekulve Trevor May 192 9.74 3.86 1.02 .305 113 88 3.87 0.4 Jason Bulger Tyler Duffey 340 7.71 2.61 1.13 .305 101 99 4.06 0.4 Jose Santiago Ryne Harper 243 8.68 2.68 1.11 .304 107 93 3.87 0.3 Terry Leach Randy LeBlanc 374 5.08 3.35 1.08 .302 84 119 4.88 0.3 Brian Allard Tyler Wells 453 7.32 3.44 1.59 .300 83 121 5.14 0.3 Carlos Crawford Mike Morin 249 7.02 2.34 1.09 .307 100 100 4.10 0.3 Bill Fischer Justin Nicolino 593 4.85 2.67 1.50 .312 80 124 5.27 0.2 Wade Blasingame Adam Bray 341 6.43 2.10 1.75 .315 84 119 5.15 0.2 Dick Marlowe Kevin Comer 256 7.89 4.26 1.11 .308 95 105 4.57 0.1 Mike Gardner Matt Belisle 193 6.80 2.40 1.20 .295 96 104 4.31 0.0 Boom-Boom Beck Alan Busenitz 298 7.45 3.19 1.33 .307 91 110 4.61 0.0 Rob Marquez Jake Reed 219 7.48 4.38 1.09 .295 92 108 4.65 0.0 Ken Wright Preston Guilmet 199 8.35 2.53 1.55 .301 91 110 4.51 0.0 Dan Giese Ryan Eades 362 6.61 3.81 1.34 .302 81 123 5.08 0.0 Preston Larrison Dario Alvarez 169 9.40 5.06 1.21 .304 92 108 4.65 0.0 Arnold Earley Austin D. Adams 150 7.36 4.64 1.09 .307 89 112 4.73 0.0 Jerry Johnson Dan Camarena 534 5.69 3.54 1.54 .309 78 128 5.44 0.0 Rich Rundles Luke Bard 264 8.24 4.12 1.22 .304 92 108 4.66 -0.1 Sean Green Jorge Alcala 430 7.00 5.81 1.38 .302 78 128 5.69 -0.1 Edwin Morel Chris Gimenez 18 2.25 0.00 4.50 .267 49 206 9.15 -0.2 John Gardner Pat Dean 402 4.15 2.53 1.52 .314 76 132 5.36 -0.2 Dave Gassner Dusten Knight 257 7.69 3.77 1.57 .304 84 119 5.12 -0.2 John Koronka Matt Magill 261 8.64 4.32 1.54 .299 86 117 5.05 -0.3 Kevin Gryboski Tim Collins 207 8.46 5.84 1.21 .305 83 120 5.10 -0.3 Arnold Earley Chase De Jong 671 5.40 3.22 1.76 .302 76 132 5.71 -0.3 Mark Ratekin Tyler Jay 350 5.42 3.66 1.53 .303 77 129 5.61 -0.3 Wade Blasingame Zack Weiss 172 8.44 5.30 1.69 .302 76 131 5.64 -0.4 Ryan Baker Jeff Ames 224 9.06 6.94 1.74 .302 71 141 6.15 -0.7 Bart Evans Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2019. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future. Players are listed with their most recent teams, unless I have made a mistake. This is very possible, as a lot of minor-league signings go generally unreported in the offseason. ZiPS’ projections are based on the American League having a 4.29 ERA and the National League having a 4.15 ERA. Players who are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information, and a computer isn’t the tool that should project the injury status of, for example, a pitcher who has had Tommy John surgery. Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR.