Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 2/18/19

Dan Szymborski: Powered by bourbon and a few packs of Smarties, it’s the Dan Szymborski Chat!

Rick C: Can you elaborate further on the projections for Soto vs Acuna?  Of course Soto being above Harper even was a surprise, but he’s more than a full win ahead of Acuna.

Dan Szymborski: Acuña projects as more valuable as a centerfielder, he can’t leverage all his talents in a corner!

CamdenWarehouse: Reminder – Moose is a Hall of Fame pitcher. Mousse just signed a contract with the Brewers

Dan Szymborski: If Babe Ruth can share with like a dozen guys, Moose can share.

Dan Szymborski: It’s not even Mussina’s to hoard: Moose Haas, Moose Skowron, and Randy Milligan shared it with him with nary a protest!

Kristen: Of the teams like TEX, TOR, DET, etc., who are in soft-rebuild mode, who’s the closest to getting back into contention?

Dan Szymborski: Texas

Butch Cassidy: Is Alonso Rhys Hoskins ?

Dan Szymborski: I’ve seen worse comps

LFC Mike: Happy President’s Day Dan. Let’s stay in D.C.  ZIPs for Juan Soto are eye watering. 36 HR and keeping  a .400 OBP for a player who won’t be 21 until next October?  Is this a Zips number even you might kind of look at and say……Really? Not doubting the ZIPs..but man..what a projection.

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS isn’t typically prone to overexcitement!

Dan Szymborski: Soto’s 2018 is enough to make you wonder if the records weren’t tampered with!

hooha: Will ZIPS be doing a Yusei Kikuchi projection?

Dan Szymborski: There already was one!

LFC Mike: Dan. Looking for a PSA here. If you or any chatter could recommend the best website where established fantasy leagues who are looking for a new owner or two could post? Same for someone looking to join an established fantasy league for 2019. Fangraphs had this a few years ago I believe. Thank You.

Dan Szymborski: I actually don’t know

Alcides Escobar: HA! My work here is done Szymborski.

Dan Szymborski: CURSE YOU

Daniel : Is it too soon for the Padres to make a big move like Machado? Will this limit their flexibility in the future?

Dan Szymborski: I think when it’s an actual big move, it’s fine. Machado or Harper woudl still be good in 2 or 3 years.

Dan Szymborski: I rather have Machado than flexibility!

Dan Szymborski: The problem is when the make a meh move and call it a big move.

Dan Szymborski: See: Eric Hosmer

Luke: Thoughts on Kyle Dowdy? The Mets seem really high on him with an apparent velocity gain

Dan Szymborski: I think he’s mor elikely to stick as a reliever than as a starter

Dan Szymborski: He was a good rule 5 pick though

Dan Szymborski: There are a couple spots in the back of the team’s pen that aren’t that exciting that he fits

Shirtless Bartolo on a Darkhorse: Tyler Skaggs said that he has learned more from the Rapsodo machine in 1 month than he did in 4-5 previous years. Couple that with a pitching coach that knows how to use and disseminate that information (Doug White), would you expect a slight improvement from the Angels pitching staff?

Dan Szymborski: I dunno, I don’t think these things tend to make as big a difference as some do

Dan Szymborski: Almost every team cna use information now

Nick: What is the probability, according to ZiPS, for a Max Kepler breakout?

Dan Szymborski: Define breakout, gimme a number of something

Dan Szymborski: I can’t really give you a single number for a concept

Jesse Winker: Will I be a dynasty darling by June?

Dan Szymborski: BA sure and in OBP leagues

Alcide’s Mother: Where should I send the Alcides Escobar Oriole’s jersey to you Dan. It is my gift to you on National Irony Day….it will also include a gift certificate for Skyline Chili.

Dan Szymborski: WORST BIRTHDAY EVER

Dan Szymborski: Well, if you give it ot me on June 19

TRANE: who is your pick(s) of the young Braves pitchers to break out?

Dan Szymborski: SOroka, Gohara

SteveO: I’ve wanted to ask you this forever and always forget, due to lack of importance.  Still–I know your thoughts on what is chili, and what is beef and bean stew.  Question is, do you enjoy beef and bean stew? Is it something you’d happily eat?  Thanks!

Dan Szymborski: It’s fine, but I prefer chili

Ben: Who is the player who would benefit the most from one specific home ballpark? I’m not just talking about a hitter doing better in Colorado. Does anyone have a profile that would be expected to drastically improve somewhere even in relation to the park factors?

Dan Szymborski: Some do, I don’t know who is the *most*

Manny and Harper: Chances either (or both) of us end up in San Diego?

Dan Szymborski: Call it 30% that one does, <0.1% that both do

Angelus Novus: Dan chat is back

Dan Szymborski: IT’S ALMOST EVERY WEEK

Chuncey Wiggins: All star game idea: Make the first base third and third first base so that batters have to run clockwise around the bases. Would this improve the game in any measurable way?

Dan Szymborski: No

Dan Szymborski: Now, if you make every other runner go clockwise and runners going opposite direction can only pass each other if one does a flip over the other one, then yes

Outta my way, Gyorkass: Does the Moustakas signing infer that the Brewers think Hiura is not yet ready? Seems like the most logical configuration becomes Moose takes most of the 3B PA’s, Shaw becomes the primary 2B, and Perez/Spangy duke it out for backup PA’s in the infield, closing the opening that Hiura was looking like he was going to take.

Or, is Hiura still in the plans, and if he’s raking/ready in June, he’ll get his PA’s and they’ll figure the ramifications out then?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t think Hiura was ever going to start the season as the 2B, so no effect here.

Dan Szymborski: And if he’s crushing the ball in June, well that’s a nice problem to have

Knighton: Is Victor Robles a good bet for a 70/60/.275 and 40 steal campaign?

Dan Szymborski: Slightly on the aggressive side

Chuncey Wiggins: If the Padres sign both Machado and Harper, do they win a wild card spot?

Dan Szymborski: No

Fave Dave: Yu Darvish will be the Cubs best starter. Change my mind.

Dan Szymborski: It’s certainly possible. Last year isn’t the greatest projection system

Outta my way, Gyorkass: If you could guarantee yourself an Orioles playoff berth by being required to eat a bowl of Skyline chili once a week for a year, would you do it?

Dan Szymborski: I’m not ruining my stomach for a team that signs Alcides Escobar!

BenZ: Harper and Machado are the same age and both Steamer and ZIPS project Machado to be better this year, but reports indicate Harper will get more money. Does this mean that Harper’s profile has a better aging curve? Or does it mean that teams think projections overestimate the value of defense? Or is Harper just more marketable?

Dan Szymborski: I think we wait and see who gets what!

Stevil: Hey Dan! Is it just me, or is there a semi-shortage of catching and third base prospects?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t think 3B is all that bad. Now *1B*

Frantic Franny : What should we expect from Franmil Reyes this year? Is expecting a 60 run 70 RBI and 25 homers with a .265 average to over the top?

Dan Szymborski: Problem is, Padres have done nothing to clean out the outfield jam

Dan Szymborski: And throwing in the towels on Myers at 3B before spring even started made it worse

Big joe Mufferaw: If you signed Bryce Harper to an 8 year contract (lets say 250 million). Would you rather he produced 10 WAR in the 1st 4 seasons, and 0 WAR for the next 4 OR puts up 5 WAR every season?

Dan Szymborski: depends on the team

CamdenWarehouse: well no one just says “Babe” and means anyone other than Ruth

Dan Szymborski: Who do ya think you are, the lawyers suing the company that makes Baby Ruth bars?

Can we be friends? : Would  a system where profit was pooled and then redistributed by record work to create balance and encourage winning? Getting past the part where owners would be hard pressed to agree

Dan Szymborski: I’m not sure WHAT works

Dan Szymborski: Because you have several groups with differing motivations

Dan Szymborski: rich owners, poor owners, veteran players, pre-FA players

Chuncey Wiggins: Between STL stealing log-in information, Astros taking pictures of Red Sox signals, the Red Sox communicating with apple watches, allegations of a Blue Jays fan in the white shirt tipping pitches…How much cheating do you think actually happens in baseball?

Dan Szymborski: Sports have a long history of cheating

Outta my way, Gyorkass: Vegas has CHC 89.5 STL 88.5 MIL 86.5 CIN 79.5 and PIT 77.5. Any one or more of those make you itch to plop an over or under bet on?

Dan Szymborski: No

Dan Szymborski: It gets a little harder to find over/under opportunities every year

elfuego25: Would Manny be signed already if he were a 3rd baseman or is that not even a thing?

Dan Szymborski: Not a thing

Outta my way, Gyorkass: Standard WWE match – who you got, Eric Thames or Jesus Aguilar?

Dan Szymborski: Thames

John S: Have you seen Wil Myers’ new hair? I think it boosts his confidence and he’ll be the Myers the padres thought they acquired.  The other possibility is that it falls out a third of the way thru the season and he’s completely deflated.  I guess he could get an infection from it – that would be so Wil.

Dan Szymborski: I haven’t seen his hair! Anyone got a link?

JG: “ZiPS isn’t typically prone to overexcitement!”

Outta my way, Gyorkass: Same WWE standard match – Tim Tebow vs Colin Kaepernick?

Dan Szymborski: I think Kaepernick

CamdenWarehouse: Just how scared should we be that Escobar is going to make the Orioles? I know Elias is not Duquette, but still.

Dan Szymborski: cautiously worried

Wilfong: Help!  How is Max Keplers comp Robin Jennings,  he of a career 226 PA’s, 64wRC+  and -1.4 WAR?

Dan Szymborski: Other baseball exists.

Dan Szymborski: If Jennings were 10 years younger, he would have had some kind of career

Chris: What is a realistic wrc+ for Luke Voit this year?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t think the projection is unreasonable

resumeman: Do you know if Fangraphs is going to provide DFS SaberSim projections this year?

Dan Szymborski: No idea

Outta my way, Gyorkass: Moose tacos sound like they at least have a chance to be good. Fried Bryce just sounds like cannibalism.

Mitch: Is Aaron Hicks really the second-best CF in the AL?

Dan Szymborski: Well, ZiPS says third-best, but yes, we’re in the timeline where Aaron Hicks developed into a borderline star.

tekky: I was told the Yankees dont need Bryce Harper because Brett Gardner is a comparable player. How should I react?

Dan Szymborski: If there’s a table that’s unflipped nearby, you should be ashamed of yourself.

Fred Lutt: Why don’t the Reds trade Matt Kemp to the Indians? Make it salary neutral or whatever but that seems like a good move for all parties

Dan Szymborski: I don’t think Kemp’s good enough to even make the Indians OF

Dahlish Intention: What should fans expect of dear former prospect star David Dahl?

Dan Szymborski: Occasional injuries, but the Rockies might be out of craptacular players to play over him

Dan Szymborski: THough they still have 6 weeks to sign one

Der-K: When do you expect that we’ll see the ZiPS for players that otherwise got lost in the shuffle (dealt/signed after their new team was posted, before their old one was)?
Thanks!

Dan Szymborski: After the final team (White Sox) goes on Friday!

KEnsington Habershord Esq: Skyline Chili requests for you to cease making jokes about their high quality delicious chili or we shall see you in court…where we will have vats of our chili for jurors to eat and relish.

Dan Szymborski: As long as the trial is somewhere with good taste, I’ll win

NotBurtReynolds: Do believe Zips is superior because it was the only projection system that correctly forecasts Kris Davis’s batting average for 2019? Are all other projection systems inherently flawed if they don’t return a .247 BA for Davis?

Dan Szymborski: Yes and for exactly this reason

Kristen: Over-under on Gallo hitting 53 HR’s?

Dan Szymborski: Under

Irrational Man: Any taste of what Jeff McNeil’s DEF projection would be in LF?

Dan Szymborski: I think a few runs above avg

Big joe Mufferaw: RE: If you signed Bryce Harper to an 8 year contract (lets say 250 million). Would you rather he produced 10 WAR in the 1st 4 seasons, and 0 WAR for the next 4 OR puts up 5 WAR every season? Why does it depend on the team?

Dan Szymborski: Different teams have different needs

Dan Szymborski: and different time scales

Dan Szymborski: Imagine I’m the Royals. I probably don’t get anything out of the first 20 WAR and probably not the first 30

kevinthecomic: to the guy looking for fantasy leagues and/or owners: rotoworld.com –> formus –> baseball league finder service

v2micca: If the Phillies sign Harper, are they the favorites for the NL East?

Dan Szymborski: I believe marginally

LFC Mike: Loser Leave Town Match.  Alcides Escobar vs. Dan Szymborski. I would pay to watch that. Dan would eventually win cause Escobar can’t hit anything.

Steve : Who are the biggest names you could see getting moved at this years trade deadline?

Dan Szymborski: Smoak

Dan Szymborski: Castellanos if he’s not traded before that

Dan Szymborski: Gennett if the year doesn’t work out fo rthe Reds

TW: Any idea when ZIPS will be incorporated into players’ projections like depth charts / etc…?

Dan Szymborski: After Friday

Greg: After, what I think was a good start to the offseason (Donaldson, McCann) the Braves have been idle.  I don’t know but it seems like they could hav easily gotten Realmuto for a package built around a young pitcher and also went out and got Harper.  You look at their payroll and after this year the only significant contract they have on the roster is Freeman.  Just venting.

Dan Szymborski: I do think they should have gotten involved in Harper

Dan Szymborski: But I probably wouldn’t do both – if you’re paying Harper, you kinda want some of these guys to be cheap

Dawg: Buster Olney put out an article today saying it would be dumb for the padres to sign Machado. What are your thoughts on that?

Dan Szymborski: I haven’t read the article, but I would disagree with the concept in general terms

Badeball: Is baseball morally superior to games that are time-resricted? Or am I watching too much bad college basketball this off-season?

Dan Szymborski: Baseball’s time restricted in the sense that outs are the clock, not a temporal one!

Dan Szymborski: Though I *am* an advocate for a pitch clock. I think baseball can use some time-related stress on the players

another bad dynasty manager: Hey Dan: I forgot to say I won’t have time for my team this year, so that’s why I’m looking to 2020

Butch Cassidy: Think Josh Naylor ever plays for San Diego?

Dan Szymborski: As a starter? No

Shirtless Bartolo on a Darkhorse: I am upset with the lack of emoticons on your answers

Dan Szymborski: ?

Dan Szymborski: You can also cheat it seems

Dan Szymborski: ???????

Dan Szymborski: ???????????????????????? Will Smith!

Fordham Johnny: Better bet to make the Reds roster: Connor Joe or Derek Dietrich? And I might be one of the few Cincinnati residents who agrees with your Skyline assessment.

Dan Szymborski: Dietrich

Bill Clinton: Do I have more multi-use cigars than Brandon Nimmo has body hair follicles?

Dan Szymborski: heh

John S: https://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/sports/padres/sd-sp-padres-wil-my…

Dan Szymborski: Not the best closeup!

Dan Szymborski:

Greg: I read that degrom uses lube instead of oil to break his glove in every year. can this account for his sexual 2018 performance and do you foresee this as a trend?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t even know where to start unwrapping this

Defenestrater: Which is more annoying: Daniel Poncedeleon now being Daniel Ponce de Leon, or Zach Britton now being Zack Britton?

Dan Szymborski: Zack Britton. He was the Zach I actually remembered

Dan Szymborski: I usually “fix” formatting in ZiPS obnoxiously

Dan Szymborski: Like I always used Rick van den Hurk instead of the typical media Rick VandenHurk

Dan Szymborski: I change it for the FG stuff, but he’s already Ponce de Leon, Daniel in my database

Dan Szymborski: And I was doing Shohei Ohtani back when people were still doing Otani!

elfuego25: Alcides means “maker of outs” in Latvian – or so I’ve heard…

Shirtless Bartolo on a Darkhorse: Who improves the most over last year, Heaney, Skaggs or Harvey?

Dan Szymborski: Heaney=Boz > Harvey

Steve : What is the biggest impact move the Mets could still plausibly make this offseason?

Dan Szymborski: HARPER

Don: What would the ZiPS projections look like for Fernando Romero now that he’s been permanently moved to the bullpen?

Dan Szymborski: I’ll have to re-run during the spring

LFC Mike: Would it be refreshing if the Blue Jays said ” We are waiting to bring up Vlad Jr on xxxxxx date so we can control him for an additional year. He is ready now but we are making a financial decision for the club”. Period.

Dan Szymborski: Yeah, but there aren’t any incentives to

Dan Szymborski: The CBA needs to be fixed

Chris: Do you think Luke Voit will be a top home run guy this year? His wrc+ at the end of the year was mvp category.

Dan Szymborski: Remember the Shane Greene Law: Minimal major league stats don’t cancel out everything that happened previously

Dan Szymborski: He’s not a 188 wRC+ hitter

CamdenWarehouse: Brett Gardner is comparable to Bryce Harper in that they are both worlds better than you or I in the Yankees outfield

LFC Mike: Thanks to Kevin the Comic for the suggestion.

Guest: Will Seuly Matias see AAA this year? He’s really good!

Dan Szymborski: I think that’s a bit aggressive

Dan Szymborski: He’s still very raw

Dan Szymborski: He has big power upside and a Barfield arm, but Sally League pitchers still found holes in his game

Bighen: What does Gio sign for at this point? I would love the Mets to sign him for depth at this point. Seems like the cost can’t be prohibitive

Dan Szymborski: I think he ends up with similar to Moustakas

Dan Szymborski: I’d bring him back if I’m the Nats

tz: In Finnish baseball, every other runner DOES go clockwise or counterclockwise.  No flips though                                                                              https://community.fangraphs.com/53-things-about-a-53-second-finnish-ba…

Dan Szymborski: The flips are what make it

Chone of the Dead: When a pitcher has strong platoon splits, and is facing a hitter who a hitter has strong reverse platoon splits, are the advantages totally canceled out? Or does one side have a consistent advantage, i.e. a brutal lefty specialist is hard even for a lefty hitter who hits lefties well? Thanks for working on a holiday, Dan!

Dan Szymborski: I’m actually working on a tool for matchups!

Dan Szymborski: BUt it mostly cancels out, from what I’ve done, which is kinda boring

Greg: If Harper gets a little over 300, what’s Trout’s next contract look like?  8 for 400?

Dan Szymborski: I dont think that it’ll be as large a difference as some think – the two years of age do matter

Adam: Have you done any work for individual game projections ala for daily fantasy purposes?

Dan Szymborski: yup

CamdenWarehouse: Has there ever been a comprehensive study of how pitchers fare when they make two starts in a row against the same team?

Dan Szymborski: Im unaware

Guest: Do you think if the Rockies tank in the standings they’d trade Arenado at the deadline? O

Dan Szymborski: They avoid trading guys when they should, they’re going to be more resistant when they probably shouldn’t

Shirtless Bartolo on a Darkhorse: Steve
12:40 What is the biggest impact move the Mets could still plausibly make this offseason? – I think you meant to say “BARTOLOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO”

Jim Bob Cooter: why does ZiPS like Poche so much more than Andrew Vasquez? similar minor league numbers

Dan Szymborski: I’d have to lok at the exact translations

Brad: Kluber is a trade deadline candidate, no?

Dan Szymborski: Not really. I think he was simply an aspirational trade, one in which the Indians would be WILLING to trade him for the right price

Abe: As a Cubs fan, I’m not worried about the team not signing Harper and I do understand the starters could age very quickly.  What I’m most worried about is the bullpen. Why aren’t they making it better?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t think it’s *bad*, but it’s harder to make an impact with a reliever

Adam: Is that daily projection work available anywhere?

Dan Szymborski: Work in progress

EL: Why isn’t ZIPS all that thrilled about Duggar’s defence? Thought at the very least he could be a defence-first starter.

Dan Szymborski: The ZIPS’s Total Zone thing it uses for the minors regularly has him unimpressively ranked

CamdenWarehouse: Cat update please?

Dan Szymborski: Cassie came by with her hedgehog but lost interest when she heard the mailman upstairs

Dan Szymborski: I heard Mercutio wailing in the kitchen for food, which he doesn’t get because he’s the fattest and it’s not close to dinner

Dan Szymborski: Galileo is asleep on the living room couch after eating some brisket

Dan Szymborski: Or, he was before the chat

Steve: I said that the Mets could PLAUSIBLY make. Wilpons won’t spend on Harper! think they could swing a deal for kluber or sign keuchel?

Dan Szymborski: I think Harper is more plausible at this point than a trade for Kluber

Dan Szymborski: Signing Keuchel would be fine though

Brad: 2019- Can Jeff McNeil hit over 350? Can peter Alonso hit over 40 bombs? Just say yes

Dan Szymborski: No, probably not but plausible

LFC Mike: Why was your mailman upstairs? Taking hostages to protest Escobar signing?

Dan Szymborski: knocking on the door and leaving a pcakge

Guest: Bumgarner could get traded at deadline right

Dan Szymborski: OH yeah, he could be

RichD: If Jason Heyward was on the open market this offseason, what do you think his value would be?

Dan Szymborski: Lemme run zips for that

pirates hurdles: RE: fantasy league finder, try rotoworld forums, they specifically have this page and it gets a lot of traffic

Dan Szymborski: 2/25

Dan Szymborski: I don’t even think he’d get that

kevinthecomic: Bet your package is Baseball Prospectus 2019.  Mine arrives tomorrow!

Dan Szymborski: Mine came on Friday!

bike elias: if the white sox are in on machado why aren’t the orioles

Dan Szymborski: White Sox are a lot closer than the O’s

Dan Szymborski: The O’s don’t have a quickie lets-shuffle-some-shit-around-and-party rebuild

Dan Szymborski: The White Sox rebuild was like a plane crashed into your house

Dan Szymborski: the O’s rebuild is like 1946 Ukraine

CamdenWarehouse: Seeing all these people on Twitter get their BP before me is very maddening

Dan Szymborski: Hooray for backchannel media privilege!

Soto: It’s been frustrating as a Cubs fan watching other teams sign players to below market contracts while the Cubs spent $20m on a 35 year old Hamels. I’ve got to admit that Theo hasn’t been very creative lately.

Dan Szymborski: $6 million was baked in if they didn’t sign him

Dan Szymborski: Signing Hamels was essentially 1/14 decision. And I’d take that every day and twice on Sunday and then trade a few since I’ve accidentally signed eight Cole Hameli for five rotation spots

David: Is there a ranking of players who have made the largest improvements defensively over the course of their careers (while also remaining at a particular position)? I’m specifically thinking of Miguel Andujar and what the modal outcome would be for him defensively at 3B. There will obviously be some selection bias in this analysis since some players with poor defensive abilities just get shifted permanently to other positions (e.g., Ryan Braun).

Dan Szymborski: I haven’t seen one, but it would be itneresting

Dan Szymborski: My favorite example was Mickey Tettleton

Dan Szymborski: As a prospect, he was thought of as a defense-first guy that couldn’t hit that well

Dan Szymborski: and eventually that flipped!

Brad: Soto or Acuña to have the better career?

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS has ’em neck and neck once the latter is in center

Brad: How many years can JD Martinez perform like last year? How many years does he have left in the tank ?

Dan Szymborski: Well, I believe we’re doing ZiPS *three* year in the player pages this year, so you can check there!

Jafo: So Dave Dombrowski says he’s only going to carry two catchers this year. Is this the year Blake Swihart finally gets some regular at bats? Will he finally show his talents or disappoint?

Dan Szymborski: The third catcher has to walk his damn self.

Alcides Escobar: It be fitting I am the last comment so I can live in your head rent free for another week Szymborski. I will even take Machado’s old locker to boot! Now to find some delicious crab cakes.

Dan Szymborski: And on that note, time to leave for another week!

Dan Szymborski: Thanks for joining us!

Dan Szymborski: Well me

Dan Szymborski: I’m here by myself, alone as when I eventually die.

Dan Szymborski: REMEMBER TO HANG YOUR PATRIOT STOCKINGS ON YOUR FIRE PLACE IF YOU WANT SANTA HARDING TO LEAVE YOU CANDY MADE FROM EAGLES

Dan Szymborski: OH, it was UPS guy not mailman

Dan Szymborski: It would’ve been weird if mailman