2020 Positional Power Rankings: Left Field
After analyzing the infield positions, our attention shifts to the outfield. First up? Left field.
Ah, left field, the last refuge of scoundrels. Last year, we wondered if teams’ evolving understanding of defensive metrics was changing the kinds of players they stashed in left field. This year, despite Christian Yelich moving over from right, the answer is a resounding “nah.”
That’s not to say there are no Alex Gordon types, plus defenders without the necessary arm to handle right. Even with a universal DH, however, left field is the domain of the Willie Calhouns, Jesse Winkers, and Eloy Jiménezes of the world. Perhaps not coincidentally, it’s the shallowest position in the league; we project only four teams to accrue 1 or more WAR out of left this year, by far the least across all positions.
Is this a fluke of generations and circumstances? Will left field look different when Dylan Carlson establishes himself, or when a future outfield acquisition in Atlanta forces Ronald Acuña Jr. back to left? What if Giancarlo Stanton plays more left and less DH? There are certainly ways for left field to climb the rankings hierarchy. For now, however, it’s a big pile of middlingly athletic misfits who don’t have another clear spot on the diamond. Oh, and then Yelich and Juan Soto, both of whom are playing a completely different game than the rest of the field here.
Ben is a writer at FanGraphs. He can be found on Bluesky @benclemens.
It’s surprising to me how low the offensive projections are for JD Davis and Dom Smith- but I know it’s all math and nothing personal. However, if Cespedes can DH, it’s easy to imagine at least one of Davis or Smith outperforming these meager expectations in LF. I’m choosing to see these projections as a floor, with a ceiling that is exponentially higher. Years as a Mets fan have taught me that there’s always room for optimism.
Especially since they can platoon a bit with Davis a RH and Smith a LH which the projections cannot account for. But they really are both terrible out in LF. This team should hit/score runs but who knows.
No reason to platoon Davis his statcast numbers are far superior to Smith’s
Davis got what 100 something combined at bats in his “bad” previous years? The Astros never gave him a chance and his minor league numbers were always real good and his statcast page is full of red ink as he’s got elite hard hit rates and good exit velo. Davis’ fly ball rate went up every month and had a monster second half— I have no doubt he’s an excellent hitter going forward. The defense is very bad no question that’s why if Ces can’t play LF then I’d put McNeil in LF and see if statcast numbers are right and Davis can play 3B.
Davis last year was arguably a better hitter than Cespedes was four years ago, his last full season. And Davis’ splits are good too, 65.8% of his PA came against righties. If Cespedes is healthy enough to play the field, I’m sure he’d be better defensively than Davis but I really hope Davis at least starts as DH if he’s not in the field.
Davis 2019 (453 PA): xBA/xSLG/xwOBA .
.308/.548/.383
Actual BA/SLG/wOBA
.307/.527/.374
136 wRC+
Cespedes 2016 (543 PA): xBA/xSLG/xwOBA
.283/.526/.373
Actual BA/SLG/wOBA
.280/.530/.369
136 wRC+
Few teams have a dedicated left fielder. This is why I am opposed to the Gold Gloves being split up between lf, cf, and rf. This results in guys winning the GG for LF mainly for default. There just aren’t enough guys who play enough LF to really deserve it. I remember Justin Upton being a finalist for the lf GG multiple years in a row since he was one of the few guys to regularly play LF. It also results in a lot of CFers moving to LF and immediately becoming contenders to be a GG finalist or even a winner, when they would never have been considered for that when they played CF.
Ichiro, Barry Bonds, Larry Walker, and Tony Gwynn won multiple GGs as corner outfielders. I just didn’t see a reason to split up the outfield GG awards.
I don’t think anybody really cares about left field gold gloves. The only thing I remember about Barry Bonds defense is not his gold gloves but rather that he couldn’t throw out the decrepit broken corpse that was once Sid Bream, with the season on the line.
Winning a left field gold glove is kind of like winning the award for the best pinch hitter. Yeah, you did great where you were, but if you were really good, you wouldn’t have been in a position to win the award. (Edit: I could have sworn there was a pinch hitter award, pretend there is.)
You could make similar arguments for other positions. Second basemen are basically failed shortstops, or at least were kept off short because better options existed.
That’s only true in some cases. The middle infield positions are different enough that there are plenty of natural 2B throughout the years who are defensively better than the majority of SS such as Kolten Wong.
Also, before anyone gets started, while it used to be true that relief pitchers were nothing but failed or extra starters (and is still true in some cases), nowadays there are legitimate reasons why some pitchers are more suited to relieving than starting and are developed as such in the minors. While some of those are weaknesses (such as limited pitches (starters generally need 3+ pitches), limited endurance, and not good at facing hitters multiple times in a game), some are strengths (such as very high velocity that would have to be toned down as a starter, being very tough on lefties or righties, or a relatively unique delivery and/or pitch repertoire that works best at shutting down a team in one or two inning stints).
I’m opposed to it, simply because most teams put their weakest fielding outfielder in LF by default. Most outfielders who are good enough fielders to deserve a Gold Glove are going to be playing primarily CF or RF, aside from rare cases like Starling Marte’s early years (before McCutchen’s defensive decline) where the team actually has two other starting outfielders who are even better fits at those positions.
Fun with arbitrary endpoints…Kyle Schwarber over his final 536 PAs in 2019: .258/.351/.560
…including .280/.366/.631 in 257 second half PAs
Breakout a’comin
Huge Schwarber believer here. Steady improvement every year, particularly against lefties. Statcast darling in virtually any positive stat you can imagine – barrels, EV, hard hit, xwOBA.
I was pretty bored of Schwarber heading into last year but too much good happened for me to ignore…And I hate to be He Made Swing Changes guy but he did, maybe even on the fly like a boss, and I really liked them
If healthy (knee issue looks resolved) Tyler Naquin should be the LF’der in Cleveland. Hope he gets a chance. Latest Depth Chart info has him as the starter in RF so there’s that.
Shouldn’t that be Joc-son/Pollock?
I notice that when reviewing the Jays list, you excusably left out Drury. To save you time and effort, I’ll summarize Drury for you:
Brandon Drury was once involved in a trade for Justin Upton.
The Corey Dickerson disrespect is noted
Actually, Carlson could very well make the Cardinals’ opening day roster, especially with the 30-man roster to start the season. (Although, O’Neill and/or Thomas may still get the bulk of the early playing time.) The Cardinals haven’t been as bad as most teams with service time manipulation, such as with Albert Pujols, Kyle McClellan, and Jordan Hicks.
The Cardinals haven’t messed with service time shenanigans, but that’s mostly because they haven’t had the prospects to do it with. Carlson is the first really young Top 50 prospect who is probably major league-ready at the start of the season. I’d be flabbergasted if the Cardinals started the season with Carlson, especially in a wacky season that only requires them to sit him out a week or two. We’ll see, though.
While the likes of Pujols and Hicks weren’t highly ranked prospects, they were still very young and expected to be good MLB players at some point, guys you would very much like to have an extra year of control over.