2020 ZiPS Projections: Arizona Diamondbacks

After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for eight years. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Arizona Diamondbacks.

Batters

ZiPS projects Ketel Marte to regress a bit towards the mean, but not by enough to prevent him from remaining a star center fielder. The outfield corners remain more troublesome, and I believe it is extremely dodgy to assume that a healthier shoulder will be enough to return David Peralta to his career-best 2018 form. Peralta’s quite old for a player with just five years’ worth of playing time — he’ll turn 33 late in 2020 — and it’s quite likely that some age-related decline will counteract a portion of the benefits of (hopefully) avoiding further injury. I’m a fan of Josh Rojas, but I’m not sure his value will really come as a starter in a corner outfield position, where I think his bat will be stretched a bit.

I really would have liked to see Arizona go after Marcell Ozuna, who may actually be underrated at this point, including by me; I was leery of a team chasing after two seasons after him failing to hit the three-win line, but after running his ZiPS projection and looking at my BABIP model (zBABIP), I may have been too hasty to dismiss him. ZiPS thinks Ozuna should have had a .316 BABIP in 2019 based on his profile (his actual was .259) and gives him a .281/.346/.509, 3.1 WAR projection in 141 projected games in Arizona.

The projections aren’t completely sold on Christian Walker, still seeing him as a league-average first baseman. Problem is, ZiPS also is a fan of Kevin Cron — his emergence was huge even by Pacific Coast League standards — and projects him as the slightly better player right now. If trading Walker at some point can get the Diamondbacks another corner outfielder or a starting pitcher, it’s going to be hard to say no to. I don’t think Arizona is a top offense, but I don’t think there are any serious holes at the moment, an impressive turnaround for a team that had an 86 wRC+ as recently as 2018.

Pitchers

Zac Gallen! The comps for Gallen are impressive, though remember that ZiPS is comparing Gallen to Greg Maddux’s baseline through 1988 and Dave Stieb’s baseline through1981; their respective Hall of Fame credentials came through further improvements. ZiPS wasn’t sold on Gallen after 2018, but it did translate his performance in the minors that season as a 9-8, 3.75 line with 119 strikeouts in 134.1 translated minor league innings. Gallen’s 3-6, 2.81 ERA debut in 15 starts was right in line with his 2019 minor league translations, which ZiPS had at a sterling 2.67 ERA and 103 strikeouts in 84.1 innings. ZiPS gave no other minor league pitcher a translated ERA under three in at least 50 innings (Sam Selman came close but fell short on innings).

Arizona’s rotation ought to be more effective than people think, with the worst projected ERA+s being from Merrill Kelly and Mike Leake at 93. A full season of Gallen and Luke Weaver will be an upgrade, but it’s still tough to make up for what Zack Greinke gave them, inspiring his trade to Houston. The bullpen projects in average-plus territory, and while I’d still like to have seen Archie Bradley given one last go as a starter, I can’t fault Arizona for leaving him where he’s been generally successful.

Prospects

The name that really made me do a double-take was Josh Green, a control pitcher from the 2018 draft. Green used his changeup and increased velocity to advance through the minors very quickly. But even given his performance in his first professional season, I was floored that ZiPS already thought of him as a league-average starter. So I ran the projection a second time, double-checked all the data, and came up with the same result. Still doubting, I looked at his Steamer projection and at a 4.52 ERA, it likes him just as much (I believe I’m projecting a slightly lower run environment than Steamer).

ZiPS doesn’t see Seth Beer as being quite ready yet, but Arizona doesn’t need to push him aggressively with Walker and Cron on the roster. One prospect ZiPS does see as about ready for the majors is Daulton Varsho, a rather rare catcher who has speed as part of his skillset. ZiPS projects a 5.2 speed score from Varsho in the majors in 2020, which is practically unheard of from the position in the divisional era as only two players who were primarily catchers put up a career speed score over five: John Wathan and Eli Marrero. (Craig Biggio would have fit in this category as well if he had stayed behind the plate.) Given that Varsho’s not a great defensive catcher, I wonder if Arizona will do the Austin Barnes thing with him and give him more experience at crucial defensive positions. He did play four games in center field; a catcher-center fielder isn’t something you see that often!

Many of Arizona’s best prospects are still in the low minors, just outside the edge of getting an official ZiPS projection (Kristian Robinson, Geraldo Perdomo, Alek Thomas), so the projection list doesn’t quite capture how much the farm system has improved. If Arizona has a productive season from a developmental standpoint, you’ll start to see this reflect in the 2021 projections.

One pedantic note for 2020: for the WAR graphic, I’m using FanGraphs’ depth charts playing time, not the playing time ZiPS spits out, so there will be occasional differences in WAR totals.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here.

Batters – Standard
Player B Age PO PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS
Ketel Marte B 26 CF 635 576 88 169 33 9 22 78 52 89 10 2
Eduardo Escobar B 31 3B 621 566 77 153 32 7 26 100 44 117 4 2
Nick Ahmed R 30 SS 553 500 67 128 29 5 17 73 42 103 7 3
Kevin Cron R 27 1B 480 427 68 106 22 1 30 86 43 139 1 2
Carson Kelly R 25 C 378 327 45 81 17 0 13 45 46 72 0 0
David Peralta L 32 LF 489 445 59 122 25 3 16 61 37 96 2 1
Josh Rojas L 26 LF 584 523 70 137 31 5 15 62 54 112 23 10
Christian Walker R 29 1B 553 493 76 126 27 3 25 79 51 141 5 1
Daulton Varsho L 23 C 453 411 57 110 18 3 15 50 33 85 16 5
Wyatt Mathisen R 26 3B 380 329 48 78 17 1 13 47 35 97 2 1
Tim Locastro R 27 CF 456 403 59 104 24 4 7 41 24 80 23 3
Andy Young R 26 2B 519 461 62 106 17 5 20 61 32 137 4 2
Ildemaro Vargas B 28 2B 491 460 56 126 24 4 8 48 25 45 6 2
Jarrod Dyson L 35 CF 383 339 53 81 11 4 4 25 35 64 25 5
Jake Lamb L 29 3B 412 351 54 81 19 3 15 64 53 106 3 1
Steven Souza R 31 RF 384 339 44 80 16 2 15 51 39 119 8 3
Domingo Leyba B 24 SS 494 454 60 114 27 4 12 53 33 89 1 2
Abraham Almonte B 31 CF 360 316 50 76 23 4 10 40 41 80 9 3
Pavin Smith L 24 1B 496 447 53 116 23 4 11 47 45 78 2 2
Juniel Querecuto B 27 SS 427 399 42 102 17 4 5 38 20 80 7 4
Seth Beer L 23 1B 566 506 68 131 23 0 22 66 36 127 1 4
Stephen Vogt L 35 C 334 304 35 76 21 2 12 49 26 68 2 1
Carlos Asuaje L 28 2B 435 386 45 93 18 5 6 42 39 83 2 2
Matt Szczur R 30 RF 186 166 24 40 10 2 5 21 17 36 1 2
Renae Martinez R 26 C 376 342 36 71 15 0 7 32 27 97 0 2
Andrew Aplin L 29 RF 274 245 29 53 11 1 5 23 25 59 5 2
Drew Ellis R 24 3B 460 410 46 86 19 0 13 46 44 134 1 4
Ben DeLuzio R 25 CF 408 369 40 83 15 5 3 28 28 108 18 10
Adam Jones R 34 RF 539 503 59 133 25 1 16 65 26 93 3 1
Dominic Miroglio R 25 C 269 247 25 57 13 1 3 21 16 46 1 1
Ryan Grotjohn L 25 LF 362 324 34 70 14 3 5 27 28 105 3 5
Yasmany Tomas R 29 1B 421 400 48 102 22 3 19 63 18 117 2 1
Blake Swihart B 28 C 235 213 28 42 6 1 6 23 20 70 2 1
Caleb Joseph R 34 C 260 244 26 54 11 1 5 21 11 69 0 0
Travis Snider L 32 RF 375 333 39 77 16 2 7 32 39 100 2 2
Jamie Westbrook R 25 LF 500 460 55 112 21 2 14 55 29 93 2 3
Marty Herum R 28 3B 362 340 33 80 15 1 6 30 16 85 2 1
Cody Decker R 33 1B 191 171 22 34 8 0 9 24 16 70 0 1
Jeffrey Baez R 26 RF 375 342 38 68 15 1 11 37 26 124 9 5
Alberto Rosario R 33 C 166 154 14 34 4 0 1 10 9 33 0 1
L.T. Tolbert L 24 2B 411 382 38 92 18 1 4 31 22 69 3 4
Camden Duzenack R 25 2B 431 393 44 75 14 3 12 41 26 119 7 5
Mark Karaviotis R 24 LF 388 342 38 72 12 2 4 27 35 111 2 3

Batters – Advanced
Player BA OBP SLG OPS+ ISO BABIP RC/27 Def WAR No. 1 Comp
Ketel Marte .293 .353 .497 117 .203 .316 6.8 3 4.0 Mark Kotsay
Eduardo Escobar .270 .324 .489 106 .219 .300 5.9 2 2.7 Travis Fryman
Nick Ahmed .256 .313 .436 91 .180 .292 5.0 10 2.6 Edgar Gonzalez
Kevin Cron .248 .321 .515 111 .267 .295 5.9 3 1.8 Troy Neel
Carson Kelly .248 .345 .419 97 .171 .281 5.2 2 1.8 John Lickert
David Peralta .274 .335 .452 101 .178 .318 5.6 4 1.6 Dick Sisler
Josh Rojas .262 .332 .426 95 .164 .308 5.2 4 1.6 Greg Briley
Christian Walker .256 .329 .475 104 .219 .309 5.7 0 1.5 David McCarty
Daulton Varsho .268 .331 .436 96 .168 .305 5.5 -7 1.4 Phil Lombardi
Wyatt Mathisen .237 .330 .413 91 .176 .297 4.8 3 1.3 Tom Evans
Tim Locastro .258 .337 .390 88 .132 .307 5.2 -3 1.3 Steve Carter
Andy Young .230 .308 .419 85 .189 .283 4.5 -1 1.1 Matt Howe
Ildemaro Vargas .274 .312 .396 82 .122 .290 4.6 3 1.1 Donnie Hill
Jarrod Dyson .239 .316 .330 68 .091 .284 4.2 7 1.0 Calvin Murray
Jake Lamb .231 .335 .430 96 .199 .287 5.1 -5 0.9 Scott Stahoviak
Steven Souza .236 .321 .428 92 .192 .317 4.9 2 0.9 Terrell Lowery
Domingo Leyba .251 .306 .407 82 .156 .289 4.4 -2 0.9 Rey Quinones
Abraham Almonte .241 .328 .434 95 .193 .292 5.2 -6 0.6 Ricky Ledee
Pavin Smith .260 .327 .403 88 .143 .293 4.7 2 0.6 Ed Kranepool
Juniel Querecuto .256 .294 .356 67 .100 .309 3.8 5 0.5 Pat Meares
Seth Beer .259 .332 .435 96 .176 .305 5.1 -5 0.5 Daryle Ward
Stephen Vogt .250 .308 .451 93 .201 .286 5.0 -8 0.5 Mike Heath
Carlos Asuaje .241 .315 .360 74 .119 .293 4.0 -1 0.3 Joe Inglett
Matt Szczur .241 .314 .416 87 .175 .280 4.4 0 0.1 Bubba Carpenter
Renae Martinez .208 .274 .313 52 .105 .269 2.8 5 0.0 Brandon Marsters
Andrew Aplin .216 .293 .331 61 .114 .265 3.4 5 0.0 Jeff Barry
Drew Ellis .210 .290 .351 65 .141 .278 3.3 2 0.0 Brad Seitzer
Ben DeLuzio .225 .290 .317 57 .092 .310 3.1 6 -0.1 Elijah Bonaparte
Adam Jones .264 .306 .414 84 .149 .297 4.7 -4 -0.1 Jose Guillen
Dominic Miroglio .231 .290 .328 60 .097 .273 3.3 0 -0.1 Mike Nickeas
Ryan Grotjohn .216 .285 .324 58 .108 .304 3.0 10 -0.1 Jeff Goodale
Yasmany Tomas .255 .287 .468 90 .213 .314 4.9 -6 -0.1 Archi Cianfrocco
Blake Swihart .197 .268 .319 51 .122 .263 2.9 0 -0.2 Paul Chiaffredo
Caleb Joseph .221 .263 .336 54 .115 .288 3.1 0 -0.2 Frank Charles
Travis Snider .231 .312 .354 72 .123 .310 3.8 1 -0.2 Shane Spencer
Jamie Westbrook .243 .296 .389 75 .146 .278 4.0 1 -0.2 Razor Shines
Marty Herum .235 .273 .338 57 .103 .297 3.3 3 -0.3 Steve Sisco
Cody Decker .199 .267 .404 70 .205 .272 3.5 -1 -0.4 Dustan Mohr
Jeffrey Baez .199 .260 .345 55 .146 .275 3.0 8 -0.4 Willie Tatum
Alberto Rosario .221 .267 .266 39 .045 .275 2.3 -1 -0.6 Kirt Manwaring
L.T. Tolbert .241 .287 .325 58 .084 .285 3.2 -2 -0.8 Joshua Lansford
Camden Duzenack .191 .253 .333 50 .142 .240 2.7 1 -0.9 Brandon Warriax
Mark Karaviotis .211 .294 .292 53 .082 .300 2.8 -6 -1.7 Ntema Ndungidi

Pitchers – Standard
Player T Age W L ERA G GS IP H ER HR BB SO
Zac Gallen R 24 12 7 3.62 29 29 159.0 138 64 21 56 185
Robbie Ray L 28 11 8 4.00 31 31 164.3 135 73 24 79 222
Josh Green R 24 9 8 4.39 23 23 123.0 136 60 12 37 77
Merrill Kelly R 31 11 11 4.70 27 27 157.0 164 82 25 52 136
Mike Leake R 32 10 9 4.73 27 27 159.7 187 84 24 25 99
Luke Weaver R 26 7 6 4.33 22 20 106.0 105 51 16 31 106
Jon Duplantier R 25 4 4 4.41 32 21 98.0 91 48 11 55 100
Ben Lively R 28 7 6 4.56 26 17 106.7 107 54 15 36 91
Jeff Bain R 24 8 8 4.81 26 26 131.0 137 70 17 58 105
Archie Bradley R 27 5 3 3.58 70 0 75.3 65 30 9 32 87
Emilio Vargas R 23 6 6 4.78 23 23 107.3 112 57 16 42 91
Cole Stapler R 25 6 7 4.87 24 21 112.7 121 61 19 26 87
Joel Payamps R 26 7 7 4.76 23 18 102.0 108 54 16 30 84
Alex Young L 26 8 9 4.93 33 22 129.7 132 71 21 53 115
Taijuan Walker R 27 5 5 4.74 17 17 89.3 93 47 14 34 71
Andrew Chafin L 30 3 2 3.40 73 0 53.0 45 20 5 21 62
Artie Lewicki R 28 5 5 4.54 18 12 75.3 83 38 9 25 53
Riley Smith R 25 6 6 5.09 25 24 127.3 141 72 21 45 96
Kevin McCanna R 26 6 6 4.70 30 10 82.3 82 43 11 38 76
Kevin Ginkel R 26 4 3 3.83 53 0 56.3 44 24 8 26 79
Matt Andriese R 30 6 5 4.69 45 9 86.3 89 45 15 29 85
Ricky Nolasco R 37 6 7 5.23 22 21 115.3 125 67 19 44 92
Taylor Clarke R 27 8 9 5.23 29 24 124.0 133 72 22 45 100
Taylor Widener R 25 6 7 5.20 25 25 105.7 104 61 17 56 105
Matt Peacock R 26 6 6 5.20 23 19 97.0 106 56 13 46 65
Jimmie Sherfy R 28 4 3 4.06 55 0 57.7 49 26 8 28 72
Silvino Bracho R 27 3 2 3.94 44 0 48.0 41 21 7 18 60
Sam Lewis R 28 4 4 4.83 23 8 59.7 61 32 9 25 54
Bo Takahashi R 23 7 8 5.32 23 23 108.3 118 64 21 41 92
Yoshihisa Hirano R 36 5 4 4.17 58 0 49.7 47 23 6 20 46
Stefan Crichton R 28 4 4 4.31 59 0 77.3 76 37 10 28 71
Junior Guerra R 35 6 5 4.30 63 0 67.0 60 32 9 31 66
Corbin Martin R 24 4 5 5.24 19 16 77.3 81 45 14 33 69
Miguel Aguilar L 28 1 1 4.04 35 0 35.7 33 16 4 16 36
J.B. Bukauskas R 23 3 4 5.32 22 17 88.0 86 52 11 65 79
Yoan Lopez R 27 4 4 4.34 62 0 56.0 54 27 8 23 51
Damien Magnifico R 29 3 3 4.47 49 1 56.3 50 28 4 41 57
Rubby De La Rosa R 31 1 1 4.12 22 0 24.0 20 11 4 9 31
T.J. McFarland L 31 1 1 4.53 48 0 57.7 64 29 6 20 35
Michael Tonkin R 30 2 2 4.54 34 0 39.7 38 20 6 18 43
Michael Kohn R 34 2 2 4.55 29 0 27.7 22 14 3 20 37
Braden Shipley R 28 5 6 5.50 29 16 104.7 115 64 20 43 84
Justin Vernia R 24 6 8 5.59 25 20 114.3 131 71 20 49 73
West Tunnell R 26 1 1 4.82 41 0 37.3 34 20 4 27 40
Caleb Joseph R 34 0 0 7.71 3 0 2.3 4 2 1 0 0
Ben Taylor R 27 3 3 4.84 47 0 57.7 58 31 11 23 63
Matt Koch R 29 6 8 5.64 28 18 118.0 139 74 25 31 77
Bud Jeter R 28 2 2 5.05 31 0 35.7 36 20 5 22 32
Justin Donatella R 25 5 7 5.72 25 17 94.3 107 60 17 43 65
Lucas Luetge L 33 4 5 5.13 46 0 54.3 54 31 10 24 54
Marc Rzepczynski L 34 2 2 5.40 45 0 38.3 40 23 5 28 31
Robby Scott L 30 2 2 5.23 52 0 53.3 50 31 9 34 60
Bradin Hagens R 31 3 4 5.92 23 6 59.3 66 39 10 35 42
Ryan Atkinson R 27 5 6 5.81 34 10 79.0 80 51 15 52 82
Joey Krehbiel 27 2 3 5.54 51 0 63.3 63 39 12 41 68

Pitchers – Advanced
Player K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BB% K% BABIP ERA+ ERA- FIP WAR No. 1 Comp
Zac Gallen 10.5 3.2 1.2 8.4% 27.7% .293 121 82 3.63 3.2 Greg Maddux
Robbie Ray 12.2 4.3 1.3 11.2% 31.6% .298 110 91 3.82 2.7 Fernando Valenzuela
Josh Green 5.6 2.7 0.9 6.9% 14.3% .305 100 100 4.10 1.5 Early Wynn
Merrill Kelly 7.8 3.0 1.4 7.6% 19.9% .300 93 107 4.51 1.5 Al Fitzmorris
Mike Leake 5.6 1.4 1.4 3.6% 14.5% .308 93 108 4.36 1.4 Jim Barr
Luke Weaver 9.0 2.6 1.4 6.9% 23.5% .303 101 99 4.02 1.4 Jon Lieber
Jon Duplantier 9.2 5.1 1.0 12.5% 22.7% .300 100 100 4.28 1.2 Bob Brown
Ben Lively 7.7 3.0 1.3 7.8% 19.7% .294 96 104 4.31 1.1 Jim McDonald
Jeff Bain 7.2 4.0 1.2 9.9% 17.9% .302 91 109 4.59 1.1 Ed Wojna
Archie Bradley 10.4 3.8 1.1 10.0% 27.1% .295 123 82 3.70 1.0 Claude Jonnard
Emilio Vargas 7.6 3.5 1.3 8.9% 19.2% .301 92 109 4.60 0.9 Mike LaCoss
Cole Stapler 6.9 2.1 1.5 5.4% 18.0% .297 90 111 4.52 0.9 Dave Eiland
Joel Payamps 7.4 2.6 1.4 6.8% 19.0% .301 92 108 4.45 0.8 Benny Frey
Alex Young 8.0 3.7 1.5 9.3% 20.1% .295 89 112 4.74 0.8 Andy Hassler
Taijuan Walker 7.2 3.4 1.4 8.7% 18.1% .294 93 108 4.77 0.8 Mike Krukow
Andrew Chafin 10.5 3.6 0.8 9.4% 27.7% .299 129 77 3.26 0.8 Tippy Martinez
Artie Lewicki 6.3 3.0 1.1 7.6% 16.0% .307 97 103 4.32 0.8 Bob Moose
Riley Smith 6.8 3.2 1.5 8.0% 17.0% .303 86 116 4.88 0.7 Cha-Seung Baek
Kevin McCanna 8.3 4.2 1.2 10.4% 20.8% .301 93 107 4.46 0.6 Sam Nahem
Kevin Ginkel 12.6 4.2 1.3 10.9% 33.1% .293 115 87 3.61 0.5 Bobby Castillo
Matt Andriese 8.9 3.0 1.6 7.8% 22.7% .306 94 107 4.48 0.5 Jose Santiago
Ricky Nolasco 7.2 3.4 1.5 8.6% 18.1% .302 84 119 4.87 0.5 Rick Sutcliffe
Taylor Clarke 7.3 3.3 1.6 8.2% 18.2% .297 84 119 4.96 0.5 Bill Swift
Taylor Widener 8.9 4.8 1.4 11.8% 22.1% .298 85 118 4.87 0.4 Rick Berg
Matt Peacock 6.0 4.3 1.2 10.4% 14.7% .299 85 118 5.00 0.4 Mike Torrez
Jimmie Sherfy 11.2 4.4 1.2 11.2% 28.8% .295 108 92 3.94 0.4 Mark Acre
Silvino Bracho 11.3 3.4 1.3 8.9% 29.6% .296 112 90 3.70 0.4 Jay Powell
Sam Lewis 8.1 3.8 1.4 9.5% 20.5% .301 91 110 4.59 0.4 Bennie Daniels
Bo Takahashi 7.6 3.4 1.7 8.5% 19.1% .301 83 121 5.14 0.3 Michael Macdonald
Yoshihisa Hirano 8.3 3.6 1.1 9.3% 21.5% .293 105 95 4.11 0.3 Mike Marshall
Stefan Crichton 8.3 3.3 1.2 8.4% 21.2% .297 102 98 4.11 0.3 Adrian Devine
Junior Guerra 8.9 4.2 1.2 10.7% 22.8% .282 102 98 4.34 0.3 Ted Abernathy
Corbin Martin 8.0 3.8 1.6 9.6% 20.1% .299 84 119 5.03 0.3 Billy Petrick
Miguel Aguilar 9.1 4.0 1.0 10.3% 23.1% .296 109 92 3.97 0.2 Matt Dunbar
J.B. Bukauskas 8.1 6.6 1.1 15.7% 19.1% .295 83 121 5.23 0.2 Preston Hanna
Yoan Lopez 8.2 3.7 1.3 9.5% 21.0% .289 101 99 4.45 0.2 Doug Sisk
Damien Magnifico 9.1 6.6 0.6 15.8% 22.0% .299 98 102 4.26 0.2 Hal Reniff
Rubby De La Rosa 11.6 3.4 1.5 8.9% 30.7% .286 106 94 3.89 0.1 Marvin Freeman
T.J. McFarland 5.5 3.1 0.9 7.9% 13.8% .304 97 103 4.36 0.1 Dave Tomlin
Michael Tonkin 9.8 4.1 1.4 10.3% 24.7% .305 97 103 4.34 0.1 Sean Green
Michael Kohn 12.0 6.5 1.0 16.1% 29.8% .302 96 104 4.08 0.0 Marshall Bridges
Braden Shipley 7.2 3.7 1.7 9.2% 17.9% .300 80 125 5.29 0.0 Kevin Hodges
Justin Vernia 5.7 3.9 1.6 9.4% 14.0% .298 79 127 5.46 0.0 Mark Cahill
West Tunnell 9.6 6.5 1.0 15.5% 23.0% .300 91 110 4.60 -0.1 Clay Bryant
Caleb Joseph 0.0 0.0 3.9 0.0% 0.0% .300 57 176 8.75 -0.1 Jose Bautista
Ben Taylor 9.8 3.6 1.7 9.1% 25.0% .307 91 110 4.67 -0.1 Randy Messenger
Matt Koch 5.9 2.4 1.9 5.9% 14.7% .298 78 129 5.42 -0.1 Joe Mays
Bud Jeter 8.1 5.6 1.3 13.4% 19.5% .301 87 115 5.06 -0.1 Newt Kimball
Justin Donatella 6.2 4.1 1.6 10.0% 15.0% .299 77 130 5.51 -0.2 Mark Cahill
Lucas Luetge 8.9 4.0 1.7 10.0% 22.5% .295 86 117 4.91 -0.3 Mike Venafro
Marc Rzepczynski 7.3 6.6 1.2 15.4% 17.0% .302 81 123 5.45 -0.3 Marshall Bridges
Robby Scott 10.1 5.7 1.5 13.9% 24.5% .297 84 119 5.04 -0.3 Matt Whisenant
Bradin Hagens 6.4 5.3 1.5 12.6% 15.2% .299 74 135 5.72 -0.4 Jerry Johnson
Ryan Atkinson 9.3 5.9 1.7 14.1% 22.2% .302 76 132 5.55 -0.4 Danny Kolb
Joey Krehbiel 9.7 5.8 1.7 14.0% 23.2% .302 79 126 5.44 -0.6 Jake Robbins

Players are listed with their most recent teams wherever possible. This includes players that are unsigned, players who will miss 2020 due to injury, and players who were released in 2019. So yes, if you see Joe Schmoe, who quit baseball back in June to form a ska-cowpunk Luxembourgian bubblegum pop-death metal band, he’s still listed here intentionally.

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in the full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR.

ZiPS is agnostic about future playing time by design. For more information about ZiPS, please refer to this article.

We hoped you liked reading 2020 ZiPS Projections: Arizona Diamondbacks by Dan Szymborski!

Please support FanGraphs by becoming a member. We publish thousands of articles a year, host multiple podcasts, and have an ever growing database of baseball stats.

FanGraphs does not have a paywall. With your membership, we can continue to offer the content you've come to rely on and add to our unique baseball coverage.

Support FanGraphs




Dan Szymborski is a senior writer for FanGraphs and the developer of the ZiPS projection system. He was a writer for ESPN.com from 2010-2018, a regular guest on a number of radio shows and podcasts, and a voting BBWAA member. He also maintains a terrible Twitter account at @DSzymborski.

newest oldest most voted
sadtrombone
Member
sadtrombone

Unsurprisingly, this looks way stronger than either the Rockies or the White Sox. I’m not completely sold on Ahmed or all of those platoon arrangements but Marte could very well outperform that projection.

The one that I think is probably not going to work out is Ildemaro Vargas at 2nd base. He’s a platoon guy but this team should be a prime suitor for Cesar Hernandez, or maybe even Brian Dozier. That would allow them to put Escobar at 3B full time and not worry about what Jake Lamb is or isn’t going to give them. And long-term I think 2B is Varsho’s best position.