2020 ZiPS Projections: Atlanta Braves

After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for eight years. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Atlanta Braves.

Batters

The foundation of Atlanta’s offense consists of Freddie Freeman, Ronald Acuña Jr., and Ozzie Albies. There’s little to worry about with this trio, short of the usual concerns about injuries. Albies and Acuña are still absurdly young, and the question isn’t whether they’ll play worse than in 2019, but just how much they’ll continue to grow. People tend to overrate the growth curves of young phenoms. Just because a guy hits 40 homers at 20 doesn’t mean he’ll 60 at age 27, though I do think Acuña will get his 40/40 year in 2020. While there’s always room for improvement, more typically, players who are great very quickly have limited additional upside. If we examined the greatest hitting phenoms in history — Mike Trout, Ted Williams, Ty Cobb, Alex Rodriguez, Ken Griffey Jr., Al Kaline, Mel Ott — we’d find they really didn’t grow as hitters after their early 20s.

Not that there’s anything wrong with that. Acuña and Albies are the scariest pair of young teammates in baseball and if their skills froze in this exact spot for the next 15 years, they could walk to the Cooperstown podium together somewhere around 2045, which is about as long Braves have them signed, and for almost nothing. That’s a bit of a stretch, but if the MLBPA wants motivation to fix baseball’s contract structure, it’s not the Adam Joneses or Neil Walkers that they should be looking at, but players like Albies, who feel they have to sign away some of the best years of their careers just to have financial certainty.

Losing out on Josh Donaldson is disappointing, but even though everyone seems down on both, I’m with ZiPS in thinking that Austin Riley and Johan Camargo will be fine at third. Not a major plus, but they’ll keep the loss of Donaldson to a couple of wins. It’s the left field situation I find particularly egregious; at least at third, there’s Riley, the team’s best in-majors hitting prospect. It’s not that Nick Markakis is a bad deal financially; he’s a bad deal in terms of plate appearances. In five years with Atlanta, he has essentially one half-season of being a really good player and nine half-seasons of being a well-below-average corner outfielder. Likewise, Adam Duvall hit well in his call-up with Atlanta, but remember, the Braves had him in the minors because nobody was interested in an age-30 corner outfielder coming off a .228/.291/.435 showing in 2017-2018.

And ZiPS believes Dansby Swanson is going to be just a guy, not a star. There’s nothing wrong with an average player who may pop into the bottom of the top 10 at his position in an up year. It’s disappointing that it doesn’t seem he’ll join Acuña and Albies as a foundational player for this generation of Braves, but it’s important to judge a player based on what they actually do rather than what you hoped they’d do. Don’t change Wins Above Replacement to Wins Under Expectations. After all, Atlanta had already gotten enough to win the Shelby Miller trade by about May of 2016.

Pitchers

Projections tend to correlate with each other quite highly, for obvious reasons, but there’s definitely some difference of opinion between ZiPS and Steamer when it comes to Rookie of the Year runner-up Mike Soroka. While ZiPS thinks Soroka will allow more home runs in 2020 (18, in a league projected for slightly less offensive, against 14 in 2019), the system sees his ability to limit the long ball is real. Of pitchers with 200 batted ball events in 2019, Soroka was 15th in the league in lowest launch angle; of the 14 pitchers ahead of him, only Luis Castillo and Adrian Houser had a softer average exit velocity. Allowing just four homers in the first half was a bit fluky, but Soroka survived just fine with a more “normal” 10 homers in the second half (a number that was actually slightly unlucky, according to ZiPS). Soroka is only 22 for most of the 2020 season and remember, he missed a huge chunk of 2018 with shoulder problems, so this was his trial by fire.

Similarly, ZiPS has been a Max Fried fan, and, if he’s healthy, Cole Hamels could be one of the best contracts signed this offseason. ZiPS is less excited about a Mike Foltynewicz bounce back (though still more bullish than Steamer). Don’t forget, his statistical record includes his disastrous final outing in the playoffs, so the computer is already taking it into consideration. Folty’s slider slid properly in the second half and I’m hopeful that this is just a case of the Braves rushing him back from injury early in the season, which is something that’s hard for a projection system to capture.

In our 2019 Positional Power Rankings, Atlanta’s bullpen ranked 18th, one of the worst among the realistic contenders. While Luke Jackson’s issues were drastically overstated — 2020 is way past when we should still be pretending blown saves are predictive beyond performance stats — the bullpen as a unit did not perform particularly well. The team took an aggressive approach to fixing the bullpen down the stretch, and the front five or so relievers going into 2020 aren’t the same guys we saw in those spots entering 2019. In all likelihood, they’ll enter the season towards the back of the top 10 this year.

Prospects

The probability-based measurements I use for defense absolutely love both Cristian Pache and Drew Waters. But short-term, what the team needs right at this moment is a more traditional corner outfielder. Even if Ender Inciarte doesn’t return to his previous levels of excellence, Acuña hasn’t conclusively shown that he can’t start in center field either. Pache and Waters will both be playing for the Triple-A Gwinnett Stripers in 2020 and if one develops quickly with the bat, perhaps they’ll force the issue in Atlanta’s left field. ZiPS sees both as peaking as .750-.780 OPS outfielders with plus defense, but they’re still very young and the error bars on that upside are massive.

While ZiPS doesn’t hate Sean Newcomb, it does think that Bryse Wilson and Kyle Wright are as good or better rotation candidates, and sees Ian Anderson bettering Newcomb a year from now. Of the lesser prospects, ZiPS has latched onto two in particular: Tucker Davidson and Corbin Clouse. Davidson ranked seventh on Eric Longenhagen and Kiley McDaneil’s Braves list, released today; our friends at RotoGraphs have noticed Davidson as well. His four starts up at Triple-A were quite erratic, but at least he didn’t allow any homers in his 19 innings, which is notable given the baseballs used there in 2019. ZiPS sees Davidson peaking as a two-win pitcher and Clouse, who throws both two- and four-seamers and an above-average slider, keeping his ERA in the 3.50 range for several years.

One pedantic note for 2020: for the WAR graphic, I’m using FanGraphs’ depth charts playing time, not the playing time ZiPS spits out, so there will be occasional differences in WAR totals.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here.

Batters – Standard
Player B Age PO PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS
Ozzie Albies B 23 2B 679 625 106 183 41 8 27 86 47 101 16 3
Ronald Acuña Jr. R 22 LF 695 612 120 175 29 3 39 104 73 168 35 9
Freddie Freeman L 30 1B 647 558 98 167 38 3 31 108 78 123 7 3
Josh Donaldson R 34 3B 539 452 76 116 24 1 27 79 80 121 4 2
Ender Inciarte L 29 CF 548 495 72 136 23 5 9 47 44 76 17 8
Austin Riley R 23 3B 517 473 72 119 26 2 29 87 35 150 0 2
Dansby Swanson R 26 SS 568 507 70 128 27 4 15 69 52 130 9 4
Adam Duvall R 31 LF 534 482 67 113 26 3 26 92 39 138 3 2
Johan Camargo B 26 3B 440 404 52 106 24 2 14 59 29 88 1 1
Tyler Flowers R 34 C 302 262 31 59 11 1 9 35 28 93 0 0
Travis d’Arnaud R 31 C 380 345 45 88 16 0 13 63 29 73 0 1
Cristian Pache R 21 CF 552 514 56 124 27 8 14 59 33 144 6 10
Adeiny Hechavarría R 31 SS 357 331 42 87 16 3 7 39 19 61 3 1
Billy Hamilton B 29 CF 476 431 62 102 17 6 2 24 39 107 36 8
Nick Markakis L 36 RF 531 472 58 130 28 1 9 67 50 71 1 1
Braden Shewmake L 22 SS 477 436 51 105 23 4 6 45 33 85 15 6
Rafael Ortega L 29 CF 536 488 61 121 25 6 11 57 45 96 15 6
Matt Joyce L 35 RF 310 263 42 65 14 0 10 33 44 63 1 1
Brian McCann L 36 C 307 270 31 65 8 0 11 42 29 55 0 0
Yangervis Solarte B 32 2B 408 375 43 95 19 1 12 56 26 58 1 1
Riley Unroe B 24 SS 476 426 47 94 16 3 8 40 42 128 9 6
Alex Jackson R 24 C 385 349 43 70 15 1 17 51 22 142 1 0
Raffy Lopez L 32 C 257 232 28 51 11 1 9 35 22 80 1 0
Trey Harris R 24 RF 497 456 52 109 22 5 10 49 29 108 6 6
Charlie Culberson R 31 LF 298 279 31 67 13 2 8 34 15 77 2 2
Drew Waters B 21 LF 563 524 58 122 32 7 11 52 32 183 12 6
Pete Kozma R 32 2B 327 301 31 65 16 2 4 29 19 61 4 1
Pedro Florimón B 33 3B 404 363 42 77 13 3 8 37 36 132 3 3
Jonathan Morales R 25 C 331 304 29 65 13 0 3 24 19 60 1 1
Wendell Rijo R 24 2B 380 346 39 74 18 1 9 35 27 95 5 4
Andrés Blanco B 36 2B 415 370 45 81 17 2 9 40 32 90 2 3
Lucas Duda L 34 1B 327 290 30 62 14 0 13 46 29 96 0 0
Sal Giardina B 28 C 139 125 12 25 5 0 2 9 6 43 0 0
William Contreras R 22 C 434 404 43 89 19 1 10 38 25 109 0 0
Jack Lopez R 27 3B 414 389 42 88 13 1 9 38 15 109 9 4
Lane Adams R 30 LF 330 300 35 59 13 2 9 34 25 122 12 4
Luis Marte R 26 SS 386 370 34 84 15 1 6 31 11 89 6 3
Sean Kazmar Jr. R 35 1B 369 345 35 80 15 1 6 33 17 53 2 2
Ryan Casteel R 29 1B 423 393 42 86 19 2 15 53 26 127 1 1
Daniel Lockhart L 27 3B 337 308 31 63 14 2 5 26 22 86 4 2
Andy Wilkins L 31 1B 241 216 24 37 8 0 9 27 22 93 1 0
Riley Delgado R 25 SS 539 507 44 119 16 2 1 28 22 58 1 1
Tyler Neslony L 26 RF 361 331 35 72 15 2 5 30 25 93 4 4
Greyson Jenista L 23 RF 465 419 44 85 16 3 10 41 40 151 3 8
Braxton Davidson L 24 1B 388 343 36 60 11 1 11 32 41 165 1 3

Batters – Advanced
Player BA OBP SLG OPS+ ISO BABIP RC/27 Def WAR No. 1 Comp
Ozzie Albies .293 .345 .514 121 .221 .314 6.9 7 5.3 Adrian Beltre
Ronald Acuña Jr. .286 .368 .534 133 .248 .336 7.8 4 5.1 Frank Robinson
Freddie Freeman .299 .389 .545 141 .246 .337 8.2 3 4.6 Norm Siebern
Josh Donaldson .257 .373 .493 125 .237 .293 6.7 3 3.9 Ron Santo
Ender Inciarte .275 .337 .396 92 .121 .310 5.0 6 2.1 Bill Tuttle
Austin Riley .252 .309 .499 107 .247 .306 5.5 -2 1.9 Russ Davis
Dansby Swanson .252 .323 .410 91 .158 .312 4.8 2 1.9 Paul Runge
Adam Duvall .234 .300 .463 96 .228 .274 4.9 8 1.7 Deron Johnson
Johan Camargo .262 .315 .436 94 .173 .305 5.0 3 1.5 Kurt Stillwell
Tyler Flowers .225 .321 .378 83 .153 .313 4.2 4 1.2 Bob Stinson
Travis d’Arnaud .255 .313 .414 89 .159 .290 4.6 0 1.1 Javy Lopez
Cristian Pache .241 .289 .407 79 .165 .309 3.9 7 1.0 Chris James
Adeiny Hechavarría .263 .303 .393 81 .130 .304 4.4 2 0.8 Eddie Zosky
Billy Hamilton .237 .299 .318 62 .081 .311 3.9 8 0.7 Cecil Espy
Nick Markakis .275 .345 .396 94 .121 .309 5.1 -2 0.7 Don Mattingly
Braden Shewmake .241 .300 .353 71 .112 .287 3.8 2 0.6 Matt Franco
Rafael Ortega .248 .312 .391 83 .143 .289 4.5 -4 0.6 Kevin Reese
Matt Joyce .247 .355 .414 101 .167 .289 5.2 -3 0.6 Chris Chambliss
Brian McCann .241 .319 .393 85 .152 .265 4.5 -4 0.6 Rick Dempsey
Yangervis Solarte .253 .305 .405 84 .152 .272 4.4 -1 0.6 Bill Mazeroski
Riley Unroe .221 .293 .329 63 .108 .297 3.3 4 0.4 Demetrish Jenkins
Alex Jackson .201 .270 .395 71 .195 .279 3.6 -2 0.2 Joe Depastino
Raffy Lopez .220 .288 .392 76 .172 .294 4.0 -2 0.2 Chad Moeller
Trey Harris .239 .298 .375 75 .136 .293 3.8 5 0.1 Luis Montanez
Charlie Culberson .240 .283 .387 73 .147 .304 3.8 5 0.1 Jalal Leach
Drew Waters .233 .281 .384 72 .151 .336 3.8 8 0.1 Devon White
Pete Kozma .216 .267 .322 54 .106 .258 3.0 7 0.1 Tim Cullen
Pedro Florimón .212 .285 .331 61 .118 .309 3.1 5 0.1 Jason Wood
Jonathan Morales .214 .264 .286 45 .072 .257 2.6 8 0.0 Rogelio Arias
Wendell Rijo .214 .278 .350 63 .136 .269 3.2 1 -0.2 Vicente Garcia
Andrés Blanco .219 .296 .349 69 .130 .266 3.5 -3 -0.2 Shane Halter
Lucas Duda .214 .294 .397 79 .183 .271 4.0 -1 -0.2 Tony Clark
Sal Giardina .200 .268 .288 46 .088 .288 2.6 -1 -0.3 Dave Ullery
William Contreras .220 .272 .347 61 .126 .277 3.3 -3 -0.3 Michael McCormick
Jack Lopez .226 .261 .334 55 .108 .292 3.1 5 -0.3 Juan Salas
Lane Adams .197 .264 .343 58 .147 .296 3.2 4 -0.4 Kevin Koslofski
Luis Marte .227 .252 .322 49 .095 .284 2.8 4 -0.4 Juan Salas
Sean Kazmar Jr. .232 .274 .333 58 .101 .259 3.1 5 -0.6 Larry Biittner
Ryan Casteel .219 .267 .392 70 .173 .283 3.6 1 -0.7 Ryan Jones
Daniel Lockhart .205 .260 .312 49 .107 .267 2.8 0 -0.9 Matt Guiliano
Andy Wilkins .171 .249 .333 51 .162 .246 2.7 -2 -1.0 Jay Gainer
Riley Delgado .235 .274 .280 46 .045 .263 2.7 0 -1.1 Jerome Alviso
Tyler Neslony .218 .277 .320 56 .103 .288 2.9 -1 -1.2 Greg Creek
Greyson Jenista .203 .271 .327 56 .124 .291 2.7 4 -1.2 Carlos Sosa
Braxton Davidson .175 .268 .309 51 .134 .293 2.6 1 -1.3 Alvin Morrow

Pitchers – Standard
Player T Age W L ERA G GS IP H ER HR BB SO FIP
Mike Soroka R 22 11 6 3.32 31 31 176.0 165 65 18 40 154 3.44
Max Fried L 26 13 9 3.72 32 28 155.0 148 64 16 54 156 3.55
Cole Hamels L 36 8 6 4.03 26 26 140.7 130 63 19 53 132 4.19
Mike Foltynewicz R 28 11 9 4.26 29 29 156.3 149 74 21 57 145 4.17
Bryse Wilson R 22 10 9 4.42 28 26 142.7 145 70 22 43 135 4.20
Sean Newcomb L 27 9 8 4.28 43 19 124.0 112 59 17 56 121 4.37
Kyle Wright R 24 9 9 4.56 29 25 130.3 129 66 18 54 124 4.32
Ian Anderson R 22 8 7 4.59 26 26 127.3 119 65 19 70 139 4.59
Touki Toussaint R 24 7 7 4.47 35 18 116.7 108 58 14 67 125 4.32
Will Smith L 30 3 2 3.18 58 0 56.7 44 20 8 20 81 3.22
Tucker Davidson L 24 8 8 4.67 25 25 115.7 113 60 11 70 104 4.43
Luke Jackson R 28 6 3 3.52 63 0 71.7 60 28 7 32 92 3.22
Nolan Kingham R 23 9 9 4.87 26 26 149.7 169 81 21 45 88 4.73
Jeremy Walker R 25 7 7 4.55 34 13 112.7 121 57 14 36 85 4.25
Chris Martin R 34 2 1 3.19 49 0 48.0 45 17 5 8 49 2.99
Kyle Muller L 22 6 7 4.89 23 23 105.0 101 57 11 72 101 4.68
Shane Greene R 31 3 2 3.70 62 0 58.3 51 24 7 20 62 3.64
Mark Melancon R 35 3 2 3.74 55 0 55.3 55 23 6 15 51 3.56
A.J. Minter L 26 6 4 3.86 58 0 56.0 50 24 6 24 66 3.50
Corbin Clouse L 25 3 3 4.02 35 2 47.0 40 21 5 26 53 3.97
Grant Dayton L 32 2 1 3.55 36 0 38.0 32 15 6 13 50 3.63
Huascar Ynoa R 22 7 8 5.11 27 19 104.0 104 59 16 60 104 4.91
Philip Pfeifer L 27 6 7 5.08 31 16 111.7 111 63 19 59 110 5.01
Jasseel De La Cruz R 23 7 8 5.25 24 22 109.7 114 64 15 63 89 5.06
Chad Sobotka R 26 3 2 4.18 50 0 56.0 47 26 6 34 69 3.93
Félix Hernández R 34 6 7 5.31 20 20 98.3 105 58 18 36 75 5.13
Darren O’Day R 37 1 1 4.08 32 0 28.7 25 13 4 10 31 3.88
Kurt Hoekstra R 27 3 3 4.58 38 2 59.0 54 30 6 40 59 4.54
Ben Rowen R 31 4 4 4.82 40 5 74.7 83 40 12 16 53 4.49
Josh Tomlin R 35 4 4 5.08 34 10 85.0 96 48 19 10 60 5.03
Jerry Blevins L 36 1 1 4.26 53 0 38.0 34 18 6 18 44 4.34
Caleb Thielbar L 33 2 2 4.40 43 0 61.3 63 30 10 15 54 4.27
Daniel Stumpf L 29 3 2 4.40 63 0 47.0 46 23 7 18 47 4.27
Jason Hursh R 28 3 3 4.53 42 0 53.7 55 27 4 29 38 4.35
Jacob Webb R 26 3 3 4.66 49 1 48.3 45 25 7 29 50 4.79
Anthony Swarzak R 34 3 3 4.56 52 0 49.3 47 25 7 22 50 4.34
Patrick Weigel R 25 4 4 5.48 26 18 70.7 73 43 12 42 61 5.44
Jonathan Aro R 29 4 4 4.82 31 1 52.3 57 28 7 16 33 4.57
Brandon White R 25 4 4 4.67 36 0 52.0 49 27 5 33 49 4.45
Thomas Burrows L 25 4 3 4.70 45 0 59.3 54 31 8 36 63 4.63
Sean Kazmar R 35 0 1 9.00 3 0 2.0 3 2 1 0 1 8.68
Rafael de Paula R 29 2 2 4.89 37 0 46.0 42 25 7 28 52 4.72
Sean McLaughlin R 26 4 4 4.92 38 0 56.7 62 31 6 29 36 4.82
Bradley Roney R 27 1 1 5.09 31 0 40.7 33 23 6 35 56 4.93
Tyler Matzek L 29 1 1 6.27 20 0 18.7 16 13 2 26 23 6.29
Claudio Custodio R 29 4 5 5.51 31 4 63.7 70 39 11 27 45 5.28
Josh Graham R 26 4 5 5.40 42 1 51.7 52 31 7 33 46 5.08
Connor Johnstone R 25 4 6 5.70 34 8 83.7 99 53 16 32 51 5.59
Chris Nunn L 29 1 2 6.02 35 0 46.3 46 31 9 33 49 5.73

Pitchers – Advanced
Player K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BB% K% BABIP ERA+ ERA- WAR No. 1 Comp
Mike Soroka 7.9 2.0 0.9 5.5% 21.2% .289 130 77 4.0 Jim Palmer
Max Fried 9.1 3.1 0.9 8.2% 23.6% .307 116 86 2.9 Steve Trout
Cole Hamels 8.4 3.4 1.2 8.8% 21.9% .284 107 94 2.2 Tom Glavine
Mike Foltynewicz 8.3 3.3 1.2 8.5% 21.6% .290 101 99 2.0 Bob Rush
Bryse Wilson 8.5 2.7 1.4 7.0% 22.1% .303 98 102 1.6 Early Wynn
Sean Newcomb 8.8 4.1 1.2 10.5% 22.7% .282 101 99 1.4 Luke Walker
Kyle Wright 8.6 3.7 1.2 9.5% 21.7% .301 95 106 1.2 Ed Wojna
Ian Anderson 9.8 4.9 1.3 12.3% 24.4% .299 94 107 1.2 Dick Ruthven
Touki Toussaint 9.6 5.2 1.1 12.7% 23.8% .302 96 104 1.1 Len Barker
Will Smith 12.9 3.2 1.3 8.7% 35.1% .295 136 74 1.1 Rob Murphy
Tucker Davidson 8.1 5.4 0.9 13.2% 19.7% .303 92 108 1.0 Jerry Reuss
Luke Jackson 11.6 4.0 0.9 10.4% 30.0% .308 123 82 1.0 Hector Carrasco
Nolan Kingham 5.3 2.7 1.3 6.8% 13.4% .298 88 113 1.0 Rick Wise
Jeremy Walker 6.8 2.9 1.1 7.3% 17.3% .305 95 106 0.9 Ed Linke
Chris Martin 9.2 1.5 0.9 4.1% 25.0% .303 135 74 0.8 Chad Bradford
Kyle Muller 8.7 6.2 0.9 14.8% 20.7% .303 88 113 0.7 Phil Dumatrait
Shane Greene 9.6 3.1 1.1 8.2% 25.3% .288 116 86 0.6 Danny Kolb
Mark Melancon 8.3 2.4 1.0 6.4% 21.9% .306 115 87 0.5 Paul Quantrill
A.J. Minter 10.6 3.9 1.0 10.0% 27.4% .308 112 90 0.5 Ed Olwine
Corbin Clouse 10.1 5.0 1.0 12.6% 25.7% .292 107 93 0.4 Bob McClure
Grant Dayton 11.8 3.1 1.4 8.2% 31.6% .295 121 82 0.4 Ricardo Rincon
Huascar Ynoa 9.0 5.2 1.4 12.6% 21.9% .304 84 119 0.4 Mike Lumley
Philip Pfeifer 8.9 4.8 1.5 11.7% 21.9% .298 85 118 0.4 Joe Sullivan
Jasseel De La Cruz 7.3 5.2 1.2 12.5% 17.7% .299 82 122 0.3 Rick Berg
Chad Sobotka 11.1 5.5 1.0 13.7% 27.7% .299 103 97 0.2 Clay Bryant
Félix Hernández 6.9 3.3 1.6 8.3% 17.2% .290 81 123 0.2 Aaron Sele
Darren O’Day 9.7 3.1 1.3 8.3% 25.6% .284 106 95 0.2 Moe Drabowsky
Kurt Hoekstra 9.0 6.1 0.9 14.8% 21.9% .296 94 106 0.2 Hal Reniff
Ben Rowen 6.4 1.9 1.4 5.0% 16.5% .301 89 112 0.2 Pedro Borbon
Josh Tomlin 6.4 1.1 2.0 2.8% 16.9% .291 85 118 0.1 Jerry Staley
Jerry Blevins 10.4 4.3 1.4 10.8% 26.3% .292 101 99 0.1 Vic Darensbourg
Caleb Thielbar 7.9 2.2 1.5 5.7% 20.7% .296 98 102 0.1 Tom Burgmeier
Daniel Stumpf 9.0 3.4 1.3 8.9% 23.2% .300 98 102 0.1 Dave Von Ohlen
Jason Hursh 6.4 4.9 0.7 11.9% 15.6% .300 95 105 0.0 Bruce Dal Canton
Jacob Webb 9.3 5.4 1.3 13.3% 22.9% .292 93 108 0.0 Larry Sherry
Anthony Swarzak 9.1 4.0 1.3 10.2% 23.3% .296 94 106 0.0 Greg Minton
Patrick Weigel 7.8 5.3 1.5 12.9% 18.7% .295 79 127 0.0 Blue Moon Odom
Jonathan Aro 5.7 2.8 1.2 7.0% 14.4% .294 89 112 -0.1 Ron Taylor
Brandon White 8.5 5.7 0.9 13.9% 20.7% .299 92 108 -0.1 Joe Hudson
Thomas Burrows 9.6 5.5 1.2 13.4% 23.5% .293 92 109 -0.1 Marcelino Lopez
Sean Kazmar 4.5 0.0 4.5 0.0% 11.1% .286 48 209 -0.1 John Gardner
Rafael de Paula 10.2 5.5 1.4 13.5% 25.1% .297 88 114 -0.2 Ryan Henderson
Sean McLaughlin 5.7 4.6 1.0 11.2% 13.8% .303 88 114 -0.2 Sam Nahem
Bradley Roney 12.4 7.7 1.3 18.4% 29.5% .297 85 118 -0.2 Calvin Jones
Tyler Matzek 11.1 12.5 1.0 26.3% 23.2% .304 69 145 -0.4 Mike Kinnunen
Claudio Custodio 6.4 3.8 1.6 9.4% 15.7% .295 78 128 -0.4 Gary Wagner
Josh Graham 8.0 5.7 1.2 13.8% 19.2% .300 80 125 -0.4 Ken Wright
Connor Johnstone 5.5 3.4 1.7 8.4% 13.4% .301 76 132 -0.5 Darrell Coulter
Chris Nunn 9.5 6.4 1.7 15.1% 22.5% .298 72 140 -0.7 Scott Forster

Players are listed with their most recent teams wherever possible. This includes players who are unsigned, players who will miss 2020 due to injury, and players who were released in 2019. So yes, if you see Joe Schmoe, who quit baseball back in June to form a ska-cowpunk Luxembourgian bubblegum pop-death metal band, he’s still listed here intentionally.

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in the full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR.

ZiPS is agnostic about future playing time by design. For more information about ZiPS, please refer to this article.

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Dan Szymborski is a senior writer for FanGraphs and the developer of the ZiPS projection system. He was a writer for ESPN.com from 2010-2018, a regular guest on a number of radio shows and podcasts, and a voting BBWAA member. He also maintains a terrible Twitter account at @DSzymborski.

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Cave Dameron
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Cave Dameron

Thank you Dan, very cool!