2020 ZiPS Projections: Chicago White Sox

After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for eight years. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Chicago White Sox.

Batters

Yasmani Grandal was a tremendously important addition for the White Sox, giving the team an instant star behind the plate. He’s a good enough hitter that if the physical rigors of catching start to wear on him as he ages, he will still retain some value at first base or DH. ZiPS has been all over the map with Yoan Moncada, but believes that he’s finally turned the corner for good. I’ve declared this several times and been burned before, but I’m going to again make the claim, hopefully for the last time.

ZiPS sees Luis Robert and Nick Madrigal as instant contributors, though just how much the White Sox wring out of those positions will depend on how quickly they reach the majors in 2020. The computer thinks Danny Mendick is a serviceable stopgap who will have value as a utility guy when he eventually loses his job to Madrigal. The non-tendering of Yolmer Sanchez really makes the way the White Sox managed second base in 2019 seem odd in retrospect. If Sanchez’s performance was such that there was a chance the team wasn’t going to offer him a contract for 2020, why not give Mendick more time at second base? It’s not as if Sanchez’s projection got worse between September and November, so the team had to have been at least on the fence by late in the season. A more extensive audition for Mendick would have given the team more information.

Center field is still a weak spot for the team, and assuming Robert plays primarily in right, that position will be weak as well until he arrives. ZiPS is rather pessimistic about Jose Abreu, and while I understand why the White Sox made the qualifying offer to bring him back in 2020 given his importance in the clubhouse and the lack of a prospect to take his place, I don’t know exactly why they then signed him to a three-year deal. Even if this projection is low by a win, he’s more likely to be a hindrance than a help to the win-loss column very soon. The team should start to look at the post-Abreu era, not delaying it. The White Sox offense isn’t likely to be good enough for them to emulate the Angels in 2021 or 2022 and allow a popular former star drag down the lineup.

Pitchers

The White Sox have been incredibly unlucky here. Before Lucas Giolito’s emergence, the three pitchers ZiPS liked the most in the organization were Carlos Rodon, Michael Kopech, and Dane Dunning. All three had Tommy John surgery, which naturally changed their projections. The White Sox also missed out on Zack Wheeler, who likely would have upgraded their playoff odds more than any other club’s; it also appears they had interest in Stephen Strasburg. The most interesting starting pitchers are quickly coming off the market, and there’s a risk the White Sox could be shut out from a significant free agent addition. If 2020 is the year they start appearing at the back of the wild card race, they’ll likely need rotation upgrades.

Prospects

ZiPS is a fan of Robert and Madrigal, so there are no issues there long-term. The projections of Kopech and Dunning have taken a hit due to their missing seasons, but they still project as future contributors, although Kopech’s probabilities are still very bimodal, as he’s more likely than most pitchers to be a huge success or a huge bust. ZiPS has some optimism about Bernardo Flores, seeing him as one of those low-ceiling/high-floor pitchers who scouts tend to not be keen on given the lack of star potential. But the computer thinks Flores has a very good chance to be a suitable fourth or fifth starter. That back-end depth isn’t necessarily something the White Sox lack, so if Flores struggles, the team is unlikely to invest much time in developing him. Yermin Mercedes isn’t really a catcher, but he torched the Southern League before hitting 17 homers in 187 at-bats for Triple-A Charlotte. He could very well be in the DH mix for a few years, especially if the club trades Collins.

One pedantic note for 2020: for the WAR graphic, I’m using FanGraphs’ depth charts playing time, not the playing time ZiPS spits out, so there will be occasional differences in WAR totals.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here.

Players are listed with their most recent teams wherever possible. This includes players that are unsigned, players who will miss 2020 due to injury, and players who were released in 2019. So yes, if you see Joe Schmoe, who quit baseball back in June to form a ska-cowpunk Luxembourgian bubblegum pop-death metal band, he’s still listed here intentionally.

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in the full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR.

ZiPS is agnostic about future playing time by design. For more information about ZiPS, please refer to this article.