2020 ZiPS Projections: Chicago White Sox

After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for eight years. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Chicago White Sox.

Batters

Yasmani Grandal was a tremendously important addition for the White Sox, giving the team an instant star behind the plate. He’s a good enough hitter that if the physical rigors of catching start to wear on him as he ages, he will still retain some value at first base or DH. ZiPS has been all over the map with Yoan Moncada, but believes that he’s finally turned the corner for good. I’ve declared this several times and been burned before, but I’m going to again make the claim, hopefully for the last time.

ZiPS sees Luis Robert and Nick Madrigal as instant contributors, though just how much the White Sox wring out of those positions will depend on how quickly they reach the majors in 2020. The computer thinks Danny Mendick is a serviceable stopgap who will have value as a utility guy when he eventually loses his job to Madrigal. The non-tendering of Yolmer Sanchez really makes the way the White Sox managed second base in 2019 seem odd in retrospect. If Sanchez’s performance was such that there was a chance the team wasn’t going to offer him a contract for 2020, why not give Mendick more time at second base? It’s not as if Sanchez’s projection got worse between September and November, so the team had to have been at least on the fence by late in the season. A more extensive audition for Mendick would have given the team more information.

Center field is still a weak spot for the team, and assuming Robert plays primarily in right, that position will be weak as well until he arrives. ZiPS is rather pessimistic about Jose Abreu, and while I understand why the White Sox made the qualifying offer to bring him back in 2020 given his importance in the clubhouse and the lack of a prospect to take his place, I don’t know exactly why they then signed him to a three-year deal. Even if this projection is low by a win, he’s more likely to be a hindrance than a help to the win-loss column very soon. The team should start to look at the post-Abreu era, not delaying it. The White Sox offense isn’t likely to be good enough for them to emulate the Angels in 2021 or 2022 and allow a popular former star drag down the lineup.

Pitchers

The White Sox have been incredibly unlucky here. Before Lucas Giolito’s emergence, the three pitchers ZiPS liked the most in the organization were Carlos Rodon, Michael Kopech, and Dane Dunning. All three had Tommy John surgery, which naturally changed their projections. The White Sox also missed out on Zack Wheeler, who likely would have upgraded their playoff odds more than any other club’s; it also appears they had interest in Stephen Strasburg. The most interesting starting pitchers are quickly coming off the market, and there’s a risk the White Sox could be shut out from a significant free agent addition. If 2020 is the year they start appearing at the back of the wild card race, they’ll likely need rotation upgrades.

Prospects

ZiPS is a fan of Robert and Madrigal, so there are no issues there long-term. The projections of Kopech and Dunning have taken a hit due to their missing seasons, but they still project as future contributors, although Kopech’s probabilities are still very bimodal, as he’s more likely than most pitchers to be a huge success or a huge bust. ZiPS has some optimism about Bernardo Flores, seeing him as one of those low-ceiling/high-floor pitchers who scouts tend to not be keen on given the lack of star potential. But the computer thinks Flores has a very good chance to be a suitable fourth or fifth starter. That back-end depth isn’t necessarily something the White Sox lack, so if Flores struggles, the team is unlikely to invest much time in developing him. Yermin Mercedes isn’t really a catcher, but he torched the Southern League before hitting 17 homers in 187 at-bats for Triple-A Charlotte. He could very well be in the DH mix for a few years, especially if the club trades Collins.

One pedantic note for 2020: for the WAR graphic, I’m using FanGraphs’ depth charts playing time, not the playing time ZiPS spits out, so there will be occasional differences in WAR totals.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here.

Batters – Standard
Player B Age PO G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS
Yasmani Grandal S 31 C 139 448 63 105 20 1 25 69 85 133 3 2
Yoan Moncada S 25 3B 141 547 84 150 28 4 26 78 52 169 14 5
Luis Robert R 22 CF 121 501 63 133 21 7 20 63 22 152 24 10
Eloy Jimenez R 23 LF 134 519 75 146 25 3 33 92 34 125 0 0
Tim Anderson R 27 SS 146 583 82 160 29 3 21 64 20 141 19 5
Nick Madrigal R 23 2B 124 486 56 135 22 3 5 37 30 25 22 13
Jose Abreu R 33 1B 147 584 72 157 33 2 28 101 36 136 2 1
Danny Mendick R 26 2B 145 517 62 123 21 2 12 49 47 120 13 6
James McCann R 30 C 116 411 45 99 17 1 14 52 29 123 2 1
Leury Garcia S 29 CF 134 504 68 135 21 4 9 43 20 119 14 5
Nomar Mazara L 25 RF 134 497 64 125 23 2 22 72 37 129 3 1
Yermin Mercedes R 27 C 103 374 47 92 16 1 15 49 29 92 2 1
Zack Collins L 25 C 111 388 53 77 16 2 15 52 66 167 1 0
Yolmer Sanchez S 28 2B 148 517 59 126 24 6 8 49 41 121 8 6
AJ Reed L 27 1B 103 390 53 81 16 1 21 59 44 149 0 0
Adam Engel R 28 CF 141 464 53 99 20 4 10 42 30 149 15 7
Luis Alexander Basabe S 23 CF 100 381 42 80 13 4 9 35 37 148 11 9
Brandon Guyer R 34 RF 75 183 22 39 8 1 5 20 13 47 1 1
Nicky Delmonico L 27 LF 69 236 30 54 12 1 9 29 24 73 2 1
Matt Skole L 30 1B 113 394 50 82 17 0 15 46 50 135 1 0
Luis Gonzalez L 24 CF 119 473 53 104 19 3 10 45 38 124 10 7
D.J. Peterson R 28 3B 99 372 42 81 16 1 15 44 22 118 2 1
Jacob Scavuzzo R 26 RF 85 306 37 65 12 1 16 43 16 117 4 1
Ryan Cordell R 28 RF 87 273 29 56 11 2 9 31 19 92 6 2
Andrew Vaughn R 22 1B 117 459 56 105 25 0 11 47 41 111 0 3
Daniel Palka L 28 RF 126 460 61 100 16 1 24 65 48 163 3 2
Seby Zavala R 26 C 94 351 39 70 13 0 13 41 24 144 1 1
Jon Jay L 35 RF 102 351 42 90 14 2 2 21 20 72 3 1
Laz Rivera R 25 SS 117 451 45 101 19 1 6 35 14 104 9 9
Gavin Sheets L 24 1B 126 484 55 108 17 1 12 56 43 124 2 1
Ramon Torres S 27 SS 98 343 34 77 14 2 5 27 15 65 6 4
Lenyn Sosa R 20 SS 119 500 50 108 22 2 9 41 17 125 4 6
Alcides Escobar R 33 SS 122 458 48 109 20 2 5 38 23 83 6 3
Charlie Tilson L 27 LF 106 370 36 85 12 2 3 27 24 83 9 4
Blake Rutherford L 23 RF 123 474 48 106 17 4 8 44 30 138 8 5
Zach Remillard R 26 SS 123 452 43 87 14 1 9 35 26 166 4 4
Ti’Quan Forbes R 23 3B 123 439 43 94 16 3 5 33 30 123 4 7
Micker Adolfo R 23 RF 68 254 29 47 11 1 7 26 25 117 1 5
Trey Michalczewski S 25 3B 110 384 37 70 14 2 9 35 30 160 3 2

Batters – Advanced
Player PA BA OBP SLG OPS+ ISO BABIP RC/27 Def WAR No. 1 Comp
Yasmani Grandal 539 .234 .358 .451 118 .217 .276 5.7 12 4.5 Frankie Hayes
Yoan Moncada 608 .274 .341 .483 121 .208 .352 6.2 3 3.6 Carney Lansford
Luis Robert 539 .265 .309 .455 104 .190 .343 5.2 4 2.3 Adam Jones
Eloy Jimenez 560 .281 .329 .532 128 .250 .313 6.6 -8 2.1 Jim Spencer
Tim Anderson 610 .274 .301 .443 99 .168 .330 5.1 -6 1.8 Howie Kendrick
Nick Madrigal 532 .278 .330 .366 90 .088 .285 4.4 8 1.7 Nellie Fox
Jose Abreu 640 .269 .322 .476 113 .207 .307 5.7 -3 1.5 Javy Lopez
Danny Mendick 575 .238 .305 .356 80 .118 .288 3.9 8 1.3 Tim Dulin
James McCann 448 .241 .298 .389 85 .148 .310 4.1 2 1.2 Ed Ott
Leury Garcia 541 .268 .302 .379 84 .111 .335 4.3 2 0.9 Milt Thompson
Nomar Mazara 544 .252 .307 .439 99 .187 .298 4.9 -1 0.8 Nelson Simmons
Yermin Mercedes 411 .246 .302 .414 92 .168 .288 4.5 -5 0.7 Dan Wilson
Zack Collins 461 .198 .315 .366 85 .168 .301 3.9 -6 0.6 Tom Wilson
Yolmer Sanchez 572 .244 .304 .360 80 .116 .304 3.8 1 0.5 Mickey Morandini
AJ Reed 441 .208 .290 .415 89 .208 .273 4.1 1 0.2 Steve Carver
Adam Engel 508 .213 .276 .338 66 .125 .292 3.2 5 0.1 Keith Bodie
Luis Alexander Basabe 426 .210 .282 .336 68 .126 .317 3.0 5 0.0 Tony Walker
Brandon Guyer 211 .213 .310 .350 79 .137 .260 3.7 0 -0.1 Dave May
Nicky Delmonico 264 .229 .307 .403 91 .174 .292 4.3 -3 -0.1 Danny Putnam
Matt Skole 449 .208 .298 .365 80 .157 .275 3.7 1 -0.2 Todd Mensik
Luis Gonzalez 521 .220 .279 .336 67 .116 .277 3.2 3 -0.2 Erold Andrus
D.J. Peterson 400 .218 .266 .387 74 .169 .276 3.5 -2 -0.3 Travis Metcalf
Jacob Scavuzzo 328 .212 .256 .415 78 .203 .283 3.7 0 -0.3 Pat Rooney
Ryan Cordell 300 .205 .259 .359 66 .154 .273 3.2 3 -0.3 Garry Maddox
Andrew Vaughn 517 .229 .308 .355 80 .126 .279 3.7 1 -0.4 Nick Leach
Daniel Palka 512 .217 .291 .413 88 .196 .278 4.1 -6 -0.4 John Jensen
Seby Zavala 382 .199 .257 .348 62 .148 .294 3.0 -2 -0.4 Joel Skinner
Jon Jay 386 .256 .312 .325 74 .068 .318 3.7 -1 -0.4 Ken Berry
Laz Rivera 485 .224 .265 .310 56 .086 .279 2.6 3 -0.6 Jon Shave
Gavin Sheets 535 .223 .290 .337 70 .114 .276 3.4 3 -0.7 Fernando Valenzuela
Ramon Torres 365 .224 .258 .321 56 .096 .264 2.8 -1 -0.8 Tony Rodriguez
Lenyn Sosa 523 .216 .245 .322 53 .106 .270 2.6 4 -0.8 Jorge Cantu
Alcides Escobar 492 .238 .277 .323 63 .085 .281 3.2 -5 -0.8 Garry Templeton
Charlie Tilson 401 .230 .281 .297 58 .068 .289 3.0 3 -1.0 Corey Coles
Blake Rutherford 508 .224 .270 .327 62 .103 .299 3.0 3 -1.2 Shaun Cumberland
Zach Remillard 487 .192 .242 .288 44 .095 .282 2.2 3 -1.2 Crucito Lara
Ti’Quan Forbes 478 .214 .273 .298 56 .084 .286 2.6 -1 -1.3 Claudio Carrasco
Micker Adolfo 286 .185 .269 .319 59 .134 .308 2.5 -4 -1.3 Pat Dodson
Trey Michalczewski 424 .182 .248 .299 48 .117 .284 2.4 -2 -1.5 Chris Shaddy

Pitchers – Standard
Player T Age W L ERA G GS IP H ER HR BB SO
Lucas Giolito R 25 14 9 3.22 29 29 176.0 133 63 23 56 235
Bernardo Flores L 24 8 9 4.79 26 26 148.3 171 79 21 39 86
Dylan Cease R 24 8 9 4.48 28 28 136.7 132 68 18 68 141
Reynaldo Lopez R 26 10 12 4.68 31 30 171.0 170 89 28 66 156
Michael Kopech R 24 6 6 4.41 20 20 96.0 89 47 12 54 102
Carlos Rodon L 27 6 6 4.61 17 17 93.7 93 48 16 42 97
Ivan Nova R 33 8 10 5.02 27 27 148.7 172 83 31 34 100
Kyle Kubat L 27 6 7 4.88 26 18 103.3 116 56 15 28 68
Aaron Bummer L 26 1 1 3.86 65 0 70.0 64 30 7 29 64
Alex Colome R 31 5 4 3.92 63 0 59.7 54 26 8 21 57
Odrisamer Despaigne R 33 6 7 5.19 27 19 111.0 120 64 18 45 88
Lincoln Henzman R 24 6 8 5.26 26 25 116.3 142 68 18 32 55
Dane Dunning R 25 4 5 4.96 16 16 81.7 86 45 13 35 65
Tanner Banks L 28 6 8 5.31 26 21 118.7 139 70 21 34 71
Matt Tomshaw L 31 6 8 5.05 24 19 108.7 122 61 21 28 85
Jace Fry L 26 3 3 4.20 65 0 55.7 46 26 5 37 68
Bennett Sousa L 25 5 5 4.31 46 0 64.7 67 31 10 17 55
Jimmy Lambert R 25 5 7 5.36 16 16 84.0 88 50 15 39 75
Ian Hamilton R 25 3 3 4.27 38 0 46.3 45 22 7 15 45
Tyler Johnson R 24 2 2 4.37 47 0 59.7 57 29 9 25 62
Matt Foster R 25 3 3 4.40 45 0 59.3 57 29 9 24 62
Evan Marshall R 30 4 3 4.21 55 0 51.3 51 24 5 21 44
Colton Turner L 29 4 4 5.06 37 7 78.3 80 44 14 34 75
Vince Arobio R 25 5 5 4.60 37 1 58.7 56 30 8 30 60
Codi Heuer R 23 5 5 4.50 44 0 62.0 65 31 9 20 49
Juan Minaya R 29 4 4 4.50 51 0 62.0 58 31 9 30 65
Dylan Covey R 28 6 8 5.50 29 22 111.3 123 68 19 45 82
Kelvin Herrera R 30 3 3 4.53 58 0 53.7 54 27 9 19 52
Manny Banuelos L 29 4 6 5.33 24 13 77.7 79 46 13 46 75
Zack Burdi R 25 2 3 4.91 22 0 25.7 24 14 3 18 27
Jimmy Cordero R 28 4 4 4.60 56 0 62.7 60 32 7 35 55
Donn Roach R 30 5 7 5.71 20 18 99.3 117 63 19 34 56
John Parke L 25 5 8 5.71 25 25 126.0 154 80 22 47 63
Hector Santiago L 32 4 6 5.63 29 12 84.7 84 53 19 50 86
Tayron Guerrero R 29 3 3 4.80 51 0 54.3 49 29 9 34 68
Ryan Burr R 26 2 2 5.01 34 0 41.3 38 23 5 28 42
Danny Dopico R 26 3 3 5.21 42 1 57.0 51 33 7 47 63
Zach Thompson R 26 3 4 5.02 48 0 71.7 73 40 12 35 65
Carson Fulmer R 26 5 7 5.73 36 13 88.0 88 56 17 60 86
James Shields R 38 5 8 5.91 20 19 109.7 120 72 25 50 80
Caleb Frare L 26 2 3 5.36 40 0 43.7 37 26 7 38 54
Thyago Vieira R 26 4 5 5.30 44 0 52.7 53 31 9 29 51
Jose Ruiz R 25 2 3 5.11 52 0 56.3 58 32 8 35 54
Hunter Schryver L 25 2 3 5.34 41 0 59.0 63 35 11 29 53
Alec Hansen R 25 2 3 5.50 45 0 52.3 46 32 7 53 59
Ross Detwiler L 34 4 6 6.10 22 16 90.0 107 61 20 34 59
Justin Nicolino L 28 5 9 5.80 25 22 125.7 151 81 28 39 79
Blake Battenfield R 25 5 8 6.19 26 23 112.0 137 77 27 43 77
Mauricio Cabrera R 26 3 5 5.82 45 0 51.0 45 33 6 58 59
Kodi Medeiros L 24 4 8 6.31 27 13 91.3 100 64 18 69 80
Spencer Adams R 24 5 9 6.68 21 20 102.3 128 76 24 48 54

Pitchers – Advanced
Player K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BB% K% BABIP ERA+ ERA- FIP WAR No. 1 Comp
Lucas Giolito 12.0 2.9 1.2 7.9% 33.1% .280 131 76 3.16 4.1 Tim Hudson
Bernardo Flores 5.2 2.4 1.3 6.0% 13.2% .302 92 109 4.65 1.4 Rick Wise
Dylan Cease 9.3 4.5 1.2 11.2% 23.2% .305 95 106 4.32 1.4 Ed Wojna
Reynaldo Lopez 8.2 3.5 1.5 8.9% 20.9% .292 90 111 4.64 1.3 Mike LaCoss
Michael Kopech 9.6 5.1 1.1 12.5% 23.6% .300 100 100 4.37 1.3 Dick Ruthven
Carlos Rodon 9.3 4.0 1.5 10.1% 23.4% .302 96 104 4.67 1.0 Ken Kravec
Ivan Nova 6.1 2.1 1.9 5.3% 15.5% .297 88 114 5.23 1.0 Bob Bruce
Kyle Kubat 5.9 2.4 1.3 6.2% 15.0% .301 91 110 4.56 0.8 Wade Blasingame
Aaron Bummer 8.2 3.7 0.9 9.6% 21.3% .288 114 87 3.89 0.7 Darold Knowles
Alex Colome 8.6 3.2 1.2 8.3% 22.6% .280 113 89 4.07 0.6 Elias Sosa
Odrisamer Despaigne 7.1 3.6 1.5 9.1% 17.8% .301 85 118 4.92 0.5 Charlie Robertson
Lincoln Henzman 4.3 2.5 1.4 6.2% 10.6% .304 84 119 5.07 0.5 Sergio Mitre
Dane Dunning 7.2 3.9 1.4 9.6% 17.8% .296 85 117 4.94 0.4 Steve Arlin
Tanner Banks 5.4 2.6 1.6 6.5% 13.5% .300 83 120 5.14 0.4 Wade Blasingame
Matt Tomshaw 7.0 2.3 1.7 5.9% 17.9% .302 84 119 4.90 0.4 Dick Ellsworth
Jace Fry 11.0 6.0 0.8 14.9% 27.3% .299 105 95 3.90 0.3 Clay Bryant
Bennett Sousa 7.7 2.4 1.4 6.2% 19.9% .298 102 98 4.28 0.3 Will McEnaney
Jimmy Lambert 8.0 4.2 1.6 10.3% 19.8% .299 82 121 5.11 0.3 Jake Joseph
Ian Hamilton 8.7 2.9 1.4 7.5% 22.6% .295 103 97 4.17 0.2 Virgil Barnes
Tyler Johnson 9.4 3.8 1.4 9.6% 23.8% .298 101 99 4.32 0.2 Steve Gomez
Matt Foster 9.4 3.6 1.4 9.3% 24.0% .300 100 100 4.28 0.2 David Wilhelmi
Evan Marshall 7.7 3.7 0.9 9.4% 19.6% .303 101 99 3.96 0.2 Frank Linzy
Colton Turner 8.6 3.9 1.6 9.8% 21.6% .299 87 114 4.89 0.2 Ryan Meaux
Vince Arobio 9.2 4.6 1.2 11.5% 23.0% .300 96 104 4.44 0.1 Ray Herbert
Codi Heuer 7.1 2.9 1.3 7.4% 18.2% .298 98 102 4.45 0.1 Chad Kimsey
Juan Minaya 9.4 4.4 1.3 10.9% 23.7% .295 98 102 4.42 0.1 Bill Zuber
Dylan Covey 6.6 3.6 1.5 9.1% 16.5% .300 80 124 5.14 0.1 Bill Swift
Kelvin Herrera 8.7 3.2 1.5 8.2% 22.5% .300 98 103 4.48 0.1 Jose Santiago
Manny Banuelos 8.7 5.3 1.5 12.9% 21.0% .301 79 126 5.20 0.0 Mike Kekich
Zack Burdi 9.5 6.3 1.1 15.3% 22.9% .304 90 111 4.70 -0.1 Dave Cole
Jimmy Cordero 7.9 5.0 1.0 12.4% 19.5% .293 92 109 4.55 -0.1 Hal Reniff
Donn Roach 5.1 3.1 1.7 7.6% 12.6% .295 77 129 5.57 -0.1 Joe Mays
John Parke 4.5 3.4 1.6 8.2% 10.9% .303 77 129 5.57 -0.1 Jeff Johnson
Hector Santiago 9.1 5.3 2.0 13.0% 22.3% .286 78 128 5.84 -0.1 Johnny Schmitz
Tayron Guerrero 11.3 5.6 1.5 13.8% 27.6% .303 88 113 4.71 -0.2 Ernie Camacho
Ryan Burr 9.1 6.1 1.1 14.8% 22.2% .295 85 118 4.75 -0.2 Ken Wright
Danny Dopico 9.9 7.4 1.1 17.5% 23.4% .297 85 118 5.04 -0.3 Sam Nahem
Zach Thompson 8.2 4.4 1.5 10.9% 20.2% .296 88 114 5.01 -0.3 Jack Cassel
Carson Fulmer 8.8 6.1 1.7 14.6% 20.9% .292 77 130 5.78 -0.3 Tim Byron
James Shields 6.6 4.1 2.1 10.1% 16.1% .283 75 134 6.05 -0.3 Steve Trachsel
Caleb Frare 11.1 7.8 1.4 18.4% 26.2% .288 82 121 5.40 -0.3 Scott Wiggins
Thyago Vieira 8.7 5.0 1.5 12.1% 21.3% .299 83 120 5.12 -0.4 Rick Greene
Jose Ruiz 8.6 5.6 1.3 13.4% 20.7% .311 83 121 4.97 -0.4 Ray Herbert
Hunter Schryver 8.1 4.4 1.7 10.8% 19.7% .302 83 121 5.28 -0.4 Danny Zell
Alec Hansen 10.1 9.1 1.2 20.7% 23.0% .291 80 125 5.70 -0.5 Dave Cole
Ross Detwiler 5.9 3.4 2.0 8.3% 14.5% .299 72 138 5.89 -0.5 Robert Lee
Justin Nicolino 5.7 2.8 2.0 6.9% 14.0% .299 73 137 5.75 -0.6 Lee Guetterman
Blake Battenfield 6.2 3.5 2.2 8.4% 15.0% .306 71 140 6.09 -0.7 Nate Cornejo
Mauricio Cabrera 10.4 10.2 1.1 22.7% 23.0% .300 73 138 5.81 -0.8 Ken Wright
Kodi Medeiros 7.9 6.8 1.8 15.6% 18.1% .305 67 149 6.26 -1.1 Matt Coenen
Spencer Adams 4.7 4.2 2.1 10.0% 11.3% .299 66 151 6.58 -1.2 Sam Marsonek

Players are listed with their most recent teams wherever possible. This includes players that are unsigned, players who will miss 2020 due to injury, and players who were released in 2019. So yes, if you see Joe Schmoe, who quit baseball back in June to form a ska-cowpunk Luxembourgian bubblegum pop-death metal band, he’s still listed here intentionally.

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in the full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR.

ZiPS is agnostic about future playing time by design. For more information about ZiPS, please refer to this article.

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Dan Szymborski is a senior writer for FanGraphs and the developer of the ZiPS projection system. He was a writer for ESPN.com from 2010-2018, a regular guest on a number of radio shows and podcasts, and a voting BBWAA member. He also maintains a terrible Twitter account at @DSzymborski.

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Baller McCheese
Member
Member
Baller McCheese

Those comps for Robert and Madrigal, yes please.

mbs2001
Member
mbs2001

Jones is a great comp for Robert outside of SBs. He possesses legit top of the scale raw speed but needs some work on the paths.

Nellie Fox for Madrigal is wonderful. Zips is looking at his K%…