2020 ZiPS Projections: Tampa Bay Rays

After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for eight years. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Tampa Bay Rays.

Batters

One of the things that amazes me about the Rays is how easily they seem to be able to find solidly average talent. Give Tampa’s front office a list of minor league free agents and guarantee that those they talk to will sign with them, and I bet they end up with a bushel of 1.5 WAR players. Heck, send them into a dollar store and they’ll probably find a second baseman who can hit .270/.330/.380 and some off-brand Doritos.

Just one player, Austin Meadows, is projected to be worth at least three wins, so the team’s lineup will tend to max out at “good” rather than competing with the Yankees, A’s, or Twins; they just don’t have enough high-upside talent (right now at least, someone is coming). But it also makes them an incredibly safe lineup, one of the few groups that could survive an obscene number of injuries.

Imagine if Mike Zunino, Ji-Man Choi, Brandon Lowe, Willy Adames, Yandy Díaz, Meadows, Kevin Kiermaier, Hunter Renfroe, and Yoshitomo Tsutsugu all walked off the field in protest, like the Tigers Ty Cobb game a century ago. Even losing nine players, ZiPS only has the Rays losing seven wins and still finishing with 84 wins. And that’s an ungenerous projection as it assumes the Rays would have to make all their replacements from within the system and wouldn’t be allowed to do things like acquire Trey Mancini, or pick up some more waiver-wire outfielders.

Getting back to this timeline, Meadows has the highest projection and the greatest upside as well; he’s a polished hitter who could easily get 100 more plate appearances than the projection if he’s healthy and ought to better his defensive numbers.

ZiPS also has friends in Lowe places, and thinks that the Nate Lowe should largely supplant Ji-Man Choi or José Martínez as a full-timer very quickly. I’m very curious where Hunter Renfroe’s defensive metrics go this year. His UZR and DRS spiked quite suddenly last season, and given the volatility of these numbers, digging deeper into his defensive improvement is on my to-do list. And the projection might even be underselling Renfroe’s defense; Jeff Zimmerman wrote a piece on players playing through injuries rather than going in the injured list and Renfroe had the largest difference between his healthy OPS and OPS while injured. Playing through injuries is one of those things that’s really hard for ZiPS to capture.

Pitchers

The Charlie Morton/Blake Snell/Tyler Glasnow trio is a solid one, and it’s amazing that the team won 96 games with the latter two barely throwing enough innings to qualify for the ERA title combined. The Yankees were the team that received most public coverage of their injuries, but the Rays lost a lot of playing time from some of their best players as well. Some luck with the health here gives the rotation even higher upside than their 2019 performance.

It doesn’t look like the Rays are going to a traditional rotation any time soon, but they almost have the personnel to do so. ZiPS was as a big fan of Brendan McKay‘s 2019 and if Tampa just stuck him in the rotation, the computer thinks he’ll be among the best fourth starters in baseball. Trevor Richards is just fine as a conventional fifth starter and ZiPS is hopeful that Brent Honeywell’s healthy enough to give us some rare right-handed screwballs.

Most contending teams don’t trade their saves leader two months before the season starts, but then, the Rays aren’t most teams, and Emilio Pagán is with the Padres now. ZiPS still has the Yankees bullpen as the better one, but the Rays are incredibly deep and could probably lop off their top projected reliever (Nick Anderson) and still have an elite relief corps.

Prospects

I’m not going to spoil ZiPS’ exact ranking for Wander Franco, which will be revealed in the ZiPS Top 100 Prospects post on Monday, but I guess it’s not much of a surprise to say that Franco ranks very highly, edging out another very highly touted prospect by a single run in career projection. ZiPS thinks Wander would be almost average right now, but it’s not a hypothesis that the Rays are likely to test in April. Let’s just say his mean projection is that of a regular All-Star in his prime, and ZiPS projects quick, aggressive growth.

I already mentioned Brendan McKay above, but ZiPS is bullish on his future as a pitcher. As a hitter? Not so much, and we may be at the point where it just makes sense for McKay to whole-ass one thing. Ronaldo Hernandez isn’t quite as close as McKay or Franco, but ZiPS sees him growing into a yearly two-win catcher. Vidal Brujan gets a long-term projection at a similar level as Hernandez’s. The risk is higher, but ZiPS sees Xavier Edwards in the same group as Brujan and Hernandez as a prospect. There will be a lot of Rays in the ZiPS Top 100.

And there’s the usual fringe prospectage for ZiPS to enjoy. Michael Brosseau has enough skills to at least be a role player in the majors and ZiPS thinks Josh Fleming will be an adequate back-end starter. The system retains its love for Colin Poche and has found a new love in Tyler Zombro’s slider and control.

One pedantic note for 2020: for the WAR graphic, I’m using FanGraphs’ depth charts playing time, not the playing time ZiPS spits out, so there will be occasional differences in WAR totals. Also, I’ve added Yoshitomo Tsutsugo, who is not yet in our system, into the depth chart, and reshuffled a bit, so the depth charts are not an exact match.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here.

Batters – Standard
Player B Age PO PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS
Austin Meadows L 25 LF 561 506 73 136 30 5 25 80 46 120 14 6
Kevin Kiermaier L 30 CF 453 414 58 100 19 6 13 48 30 100 16 5
Willy Adames R 24 SS 610 552 71 138 23 3 18 60 50 160 7 4
Nate Lowe L 24 1B 559 492 71 127 24 1 22 64 61 129 1 1
Manuel Margot R 25 CF 513 470 60 117 22 6 12 50 36 104 20 6
Brandon Lowe L 25 2B 468 420 56 102 23 3 18 62 41 138 6 2
Hunter Renfroe R 28 RF 507 465 62 109 24 1 29 79 35 155 4 1
Yoshitomo Tsutsugo L 28 LF 559 498 70 125 26 1 27 81 58 139 0 0
Yandy Díaz R 28 3B 471 411 61 109 20 2 8 39 54 92 3 2
Wander Franco B 19 SS 494 448 55 117 20 5 9 45 38 51 10 12
Joey Wendle L 30 2B 456 420 51 108 24 4 8 45 23 86 12 3
Michael Brosseau R 26 3B 455 413 52 103 22 1 13 50 28 101 5 5
Kevin Padlo R 23 3B 460 401 50 85 21 1 16 50 47 151 8 2
Taylor Walls B 23 SS 483 437 52 103 20 4 8 42 39 106 22 14
Ji-Man Choi L 29 1B 446 380 48 94 20 1 16 56 56 104 3 2
Michael Perez L 27 C 303 274 32 62 12 1 8 30 25 81 0 2
Mike Zunino R 29 C 381 344 40 70 16 0 17 51 29 129 0 0
Daniel Robertson R 26 3B 374 323 40 73 13 1 7 31 39 91 3 2
Vidal Brujan B 22 2B 502 459 54 112 19 5 6 40 35 89 35 15
Jose Martinez R 31 RF 449 406 50 109 19 1 12 53 37 96 4 1
Josh Lowe L 22 CF 516 463 55 97 21 3 13 50 43 162 21 9
Randy Arozarena R 25 CF 457 404 54 98 22 3 11 45 34 107 16 9
Cal Stevenson L 23 LF 476 421 53 102 15 4 4 34 52 81 11 8
Xavier Edwards B 20 2B 547 499 53 127 15 5 1 33 37 78 23 9
Kevan Smith R 32 C 268 246 26 63 12 0 5 26 15 44 2 0
Brett Sullivan L 26 C 447 419 46 103 21 3 8 45 22 70 14 5
Rene Pinto R 23 C 303 280 26 58 14 1 4 24 18 80 1 2
Chris Herrmann L 32 C 205 180 22 36 6 1 5 21 22 63 1 0
Jake Smolinski R 31 CF 272 248 28 54 11 1 9 29 18 64 5 2
Ryan LaMarre R 31 CF 404 367 37 80 14 3 7 31 27 127 11 6
Ronaldo Hernandez R 22 C 448 421 45 93 17 2 13 50 17 93 5 2
Dylan Cozens L 26 RF 402 351 49 62 12 2 20 59 47 193 9 4
Lucius Fox B 22 SS 516 459 51 98 17 5 4 34 43 134 29 11
Brendan McKay L 24 1B 216 189 22 38 5 1 6 19 22 59 1 1
Brian O’Grady L 28 1B 453 401 49 79 17 3 17 53 43 158 12 3
Johnny Davis B 30 CF 481 441 45 93 9 5 3 25 27 137 31 10
Tristan Gray L 24 1B 480 433 49 92 20 4 13 49 38 123 2 8
Jason Coats R 30 LF 360 338 37 76 16 1 11 38 16 97 4 2
Dalton Kelly L 25 1B 500 440 52 95 20 2 7 38 48 144 10 6
Tyler Ladendorf R 32 SS 167 154 15 30 6 0 1 10 11 42 1 1
Miles Mastrobuoni L 24 LF 447 405 43 92 11 3 3 26 36 110 10 10
Jermaine Palacios R 23 2B 365 338 28 73 11 3 3 24 19 92 8 9
Jim Haley R 25 3B 450 423 43 93 14 2 10 42 17 124 15 4
Nathan Lukes L 25 CF 411 376 39 86 15 3 5 31 24 92 7 5
Mac James R 27 C 237 215 20 43 5 0 2 14 19 55 1 2
Carl Chester R 24 CF 485 452 41 93 16 3 5 34 22 136 13 8
Garrett Whitley R 23 LF 445 396 42 64 14 3 11 38 44 205 11 11

Batters – Advanced
Player BA OBP SLG OPS+ ISO BABIP RC/27 Def WAR No. 1 Comp
Austin Meadows .269 .334 .496 122 .227 .307 6.2 5 3.3 Ellis Burks
Kevin Kiermaier .242 .302 .411 92 .169 .289 4.6 11 2.4 Tim Raines Jr.
Willy Adames .250 .314 .400 94 .150 .321 4.5 0 2.2 Ernest Riles
Nate Lowe .258 .343 .445 113 .187 .308 5.5 0 2.1 Carlos Quintana
Manuel Margot .249 .303 .398 90 .149 .297 4.5 7 2.0 Tony Mota
Brandon Lowe .243 .316 .440 104 .198 .318 5.0 -1 2.0 Jeff Blauser
Hunter Renfroe .234 .290 .477 104 .243 .285 4.9 6 2.0 John Valle
Yoshitomo Tsutsugo .251 .329 .470 115 .219 .295 5.6 -2 1.9 Bob Nieman
Yandy Díaz .265 .351 .382 101 .117 .325 4.9 -1 1.8 Edgar Martinez
Wander Franco .261 .316 .388 91 .127 .278 4.1 5 1.7 Barry Larkin
Joey Wendle .257 .305 .390 89 .133 .307 4.5 5 1.6 Stu Martin
Michael Brosseau .249 .311 .402 93 .153 .301 4.4 4 1.5 Joe Randa
Kevin Padlo .212 .302 .389 87 .177 .295 4.1 4 1.4 Jeff Manto
Taylor Walls .236 .298 .355 78 .119 .294 3.6 7 1.3 Scott Fletcher
Ji-Man Choi .247 .345 .432 111 .184 .300 5.3 -2 1.3 Kevin Youkilis
Michael Perez .226 .290 .365 78 .139 .292 3.5 6 1.1 Darryl Cias
Mike Zunino .203 .276 .398 81 .195 .268 3.7 1 1.0 John Buck
Daniel Robertson .226 .326 .337 83 .111 .293 3.8 2 0.9 Mark Naehring
Vidal Brujan .244 .301 .346 77 .102 .291 3.8 3 0.8 Jermaine Clark
Jose Martinez .268 .330 .409 101 .140 .326 5.0 -3 0.8 Keith Moreland
Josh Lowe .210 .279 .352 71 .143 .292 3.4 5 0.6 Ben Johnson
Randy Arozarena .243 .321 .394 94 .151 .304 4.4 -7 0.6 Michael Taylor
Cal Stevenson .242 .324 .325 79 .083 .292 3.6 7 0.6 Trey Beamon
Xavier Edwards .255 .306 .311 70 .056 .300 3.6 4 0.4 Alexi Casilla
Kevan Smith .256 .307 .366 83 .110 .294 4.2 -3 0.4 Hector Ortiz
Brett Sullivan .246 .283 .368 76 .122 .279 3.8 -4 0.2 Mike Heath
Rene Pinto .207 .257 .307 54 .100 .276 2.6 7 0.2 Neil Wilson
Chris Herrmann .200 .289 .328 69 .128 .277 3.3 -1 0.1 Paul Hoover
Jake Smolinski .218 .283 .379 79 .161 .257 3.7 -3 0.0 Jeff Barry
Ryan LaMarre .218 .280 .330 66 .112 .313 3.2 3 0.0 Doug Clark
Ronaldo Hernandez .221 .254 .363 66 .143 .254 3.2 -1 0.0 Chad Strickland
Dylan Cozens .177 .274 .393 79 .217 .304 3.6 1 -0.1 Steve Howard
Lucius Fox .214 .290 .298 62 .085 .293 3.1 -2 -0.2 Royce Clayton
Brendan McKay .201 .292 .333 71 .132 .258 3.2 1 -0.3 Tom Bonk
Brian O’Grady .197 .279 .382 78 .185 .274 3.7 0 -0.3 Nate Murphy
Johnny Davis .211 .260 .274 47 .063 .299 2.7 9 -0.3 Tony Triplett
Tristan Gray .212 .280 .367 75 .155 .266 3.2 4 -0.6 Matt Bowser
Jason Coats .225 .265 .376 72 .151 .283 3.5 -1 -0.6 Tommy Davis
Dalton Kelly .216 .303 .318 71 .102 .304 3.3 2 -0.6 Talmadge Nunnari
Tyler Ladendorf .195 .251 .253 39 .058 .261 2.1 -1 -0.7 Gary Green
Miles Mastrobuoni .227 .289 .291 60 .064 .305 2.7 8 -0.7 Mamon Tucker
Jermaine Palacios .216 .259 .293 51 .077 .288 2.3 5 -0.7 Nate Spears
Jim Haley .220 .256 .333 59 .113 .287 3.1 -1 -0.7 Dennis Abreu
Nathan Lukes .229 .279 .324 65 .096 .290 3.1 -4 -0.8 Ed Yacopino
Mac James .200 .266 .251 43 .051 .259 2.1 -3 -0.9 Brad Erdman
Carl Chester .206 .248 .288 46 .082 .283 2.4 3 -1.4 Donnie Delaney
Garrett Whitley .162 .250 .295 49 .134 .294 2.1 6 -1.5 Corey Pointer

Pitchers – Standard
Player T Age W L ERA G GS IP H ER HR BB SO FIP
Charlie Morton R 36 12 7 3.34 28 28 159.0 133 59 16 54 185 3.41
Blake Snell L 27 11 7 3.33 26 26 135.3 108 50 14 55 173 3.21
Tyler Glasnow R 26 9 6 3.53 22 22 119.7 94 47 15 48 162 3.41
Brendan McKay L 24 7 5 3.73 28 24 115.7 104 48 16 39 135 3.76
Ryan Yarbrough L 28 10 9 4.24 32 17 150.7 148 71 22 36 132 4.20
Yonny Chirinos R 26 8 7 4.37 28 20 136.0 136 66 22 30 118 4.34
Josh Fleming L 24 9 10 4.50 25 21 140.0 157 70 20 31 89 4.60
Trevor Richards R 27 9 9 4.49 30 25 136.3 129 68 22 54 138 4.57
Andrew Kittredge R 30 3 2 3.50 57 6 79.7 74 31 8 22 85 3.29
Diego Castillo R 26 7 5 3.64 63 6 71.7 62 29 8 26 82 3.60
Colin Poche L 26 7 5 3.52 62 2 71.7 54 28 10 30 104 3.51
Anthony Banda L 26 6 6 4.37 21 16 90.7 87 44 12 37 86 4.39
Joe Ryan R 24 6 6 4.57 24 21 108.3 99 55 23 36 133 4.68
Nick Anderson R 29 5 3 3.19 59 0 59.3 43 21 9 20 95 3.11
Oliver Drake R 33 5 3 3.44 60 1 65.3 53 25 7 25 82 3.26
Brent Honeywell R 25 6 6 4.38 15 15 74.0 79 36 11 23 63 4.50
Jalen Beeks L 26 6 7 4.64 32 12 120.3 121 62 19 53 117 4.78
Jose Alvarado L 25 5 3 3.37 54 1 48.0 38 18 3 30 59 3.47
Shane McClanahan L 23 8 9 4.83 24 22 110.0 105 59 18 55 115 4.88
Riley O’Brien R 25 6 7 4.75 22 17 94.7 93 50 11 57 86 4.87
Peter Fairbanks R 26 6 4 3.84 60 1 63.3 56 27 8 27 74 3.86
Paul Campbell R 24 9 11 5.05 26 20 124.7 139 70 20 44 84 5.15
Sam McWilliams R 24 7 9 5.10 26 20 127.0 142 72 20 52 92 5.15
Tyler Zombro R 25 3 2 4.18 41 2 64.7 71 30 8 13 43 4.25
Ryan Merritt L 28 5 6 5.00 24 14 93.7 107 52 18 19 62 5.09
Chaz Roe R 33 2 2 3.97 61 0 47.7 41 21 6 24 57 4.12
Matt Krook L 25 3 4 4.90 35 16 64.3 57 35 5 57 65 5.01
Michael Plassmeyer L 23 5 6 5.21 24 22 112.3 125 65 24 28 84 5.37
Aaron Loup L 32 1 0 3.68 39 0 29.3 28 12 3 11 29 3.96
Tommy Romero R 22 7 9 5.22 25 21 110.3 118 64 17 55 85 5.33
Dylan Covey R 28 6 8 5.22 29 22 112.0 122 65 16 44 83 4.84
Ryan Sherriff L 30 3 3 4.07 36 0 42.0 43 19 4 12 30 3.99
Ryan Thompson R 28 2 3 4.64 33 2 52.3 55 27 8 17 42 4.71
Phoenix Sanders R 25 4 4 4.55 42 1 57.3 56 29 8 30 58 4.70
D.J. Snelten L 28 2 2 4.54 32 0 41.7 41 21 4 25 36 4.72
Brian Shaffer R 23 4 6 5.28 31 12 105.7 118 62 22 34 85 5.41
Sean Gilmartin L 30 4 5 5.18 33 8 73.0 77 42 15 27 66 5.32
Vidal Nuño L 32 2 2 5.16 25 4 45.3 50 26 10 11 38 5.23
Luis Santos R 29 4 5 5.26 32 9 78.7 81 46 15 35 74 5.26
John Curtiss R 27 2 2 4.81 36 1 48.7 44 26 7 32 54 4.99
Aaron Slegers R 27 6 8 5.48 25 18 116.7 134 71 24 31 74 5.54
Jason García R 27 4 6 5.51 18 10 65.3 72 40 9 37 43 5.54
Dalton Moats L 25 2 3 5.31 43 4 61.0 65 36 11 29 50 5.46
Kenny Rosenberg L 24 6 9 5.66 25 17 117.7 130 74 20 66 88 5.76
Mike Franco R 28 3 4 5.54 30 3 52.0 53 32 9 32 49 5.56
Blake Bivens R 24 2 4 5.93 25 6 57.7 65 38 8 41 34 6.09
Jhonleider Salinas R 24 4 7 6.30 41 7 60.0 63 42 11 50 53 6.50
Angel German R 24 2 4 6.40 40 0 45.0 45 32 8 42 45 6.49

Pitchers – Advanced
Player K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BB% K% BABIP ERA+ ERA- WAR No. 1 Comp
Charlie Morton 10.5 3.1 0.9 8.1% 27.8% .293 128 78 3.7 Dolf Luque
Blake Snell 11.5 3.7 0.9 9.8% 30.8% .295 129 78 3.2 Chuck Finley
Tyler Glasnow 12.2 3.6 1.1 9.6% 32.5% .294 121 83 2.5 Jason Schmidt
Brendan McKay 10.5 3.0 1.2 8.0% 27.7% .300 114 87 2.2 Danny Jackson
Ryan Yarbrough 7.9 2.2 1.3 5.7% 20.9% .290 101 99 1.9 Stubby Overmire
Yonny Chirinos 7.8 2.0 1.5 5.3% 20.7% .289 98 102 1.6 Jack Russell
Josh Fleming 5.7 2.0 1.3 5.1% 14.7% .300 95 105 1.5 Rick Wise
Trevor Richards 9.1 3.6 1.5 9.2% 23.4% .290 95 105 1.4 John Stuper
Andrew Kittredge 9.6 2.5 0.9 6.6% 25.5% .307 122 82 1.2 Rick White
Diego Castillo 10.3 3.3 1.0 8.6% 27.2% .297 117 85 1.1 Turk Farrell
Colin Poche 13.1 3.8 1.3 10.0% 34.8% .291 122 82 1.1 Gene Walter
Anthony Banda 8.5 3.7 1.2 9.4% 21.8% .294 98 102 1.1 Bill Wight
Joe Ryan 11.0 3.0 1.9 7.8% 28.9% .291 94 107 1.0 Ben McDonald
Nick Anderson 14.4 3.0 1.4 8.3% 39.4% .298 134 75 1.0 Antonio Osuna
Oliver Drake 11.3 3.4 1.0 9.2% 30.3% .295 124 81 0.9 Dwight Bernard
Brent Honeywell 7.7 2.8 1.3 7.1% 19.5% .306 98 102 0.9 Early Wynn
Jalen Beeks 8.8 4.0 1.4 9.9% 21.9% .302 92 109 0.8 Jake Chapman
Jose Alvarado 11.1 5.6 0.6 14.3% 28.1% .299 127 79 0.8 Luke Walker
Shane McClanahan 9.4 4.5 1.5 11.2% 23.5% .295 89 113 0.8 Chris Hancock
Riley O’Brien 8.2 5.4 1.0 13.2% 19.9% .300 90 111 0.7 Preston Hanna
Peter Fairbanks 10.5 3.8 1.1 10.0% 27.3% .300 111 90 0.6 Blaine Neal
Paul Campbell 6.1 3.2 1.4 7.9% 15.2% .298 85 118 0.5 Joe Coleman
Sam McWilliams 6.5 3.7 1.4 9.1% 16.1% .304 84 119 0.5 Dan Smith
Tyler Zombro 6.0 1.8 1.1 4.7% 15.5% .301 102 98 0.4 Bill Castro
Ryan Merritt 6.0 1.8 1.7 4.7% 15.3% .296 86 117 0.4 Jeff Ballard
Chaz Roe 10.8 4.5 1.1 11.5% 27.4% .297 108 93 0.3 Dennis Higgins
Matt Krook 9.1 8.0 0.7 18.6% 21.2% .295 87 115 0.3 Ken Chase
Michael Plassmeyer 6.7 2.2 1.9 5.7% 17.2% .293 82 122 0.3 Joe Rosselli
Aaron Loup 8.9 3.4 0.9 8.6% 22.7% .305 116 86 0.3 Randy Tomlin
Tommy Romero 6.9 4.5 1.4 10.9% 16.9% .298 82 122 0.3 Rick Berg
Dylan Covey 6.7 3.5 1.3 8.9% 16.7% .303 82 122 0.2 Bill Swift
Ryan Sherriff 6.4 2.6 0.9 6.7% 16.7% .295 105 95 0.2 Dave Tomlin
Ryan Thompson 7.2 2.9 1.4 7.5% 18.4% .297 92 109 0.1 Casey Cox
Phoenix Sanders 9.1 4.7 1.3 11.7% 22.6% .304 94 107 0.1 Ray Herbert
D.J. Snelten 7.8 5.4 0.9 13.1% 18.8% .301 94 106 0.0 Jim Brewer
Brian Shaffer 7.2 2.9 1.9 7.3% 18.2% .300 81 124 0.0 Jamie Vermilyea
Sean Gilmartin 8.1 3.3 1.8 8.4% 20.5% .295 83 121 0.0 Chris Key
Vidal Nuño 7.5 2.2 2.0 5.6% 19.4% .296 83 121 -0.1 Bill Werle
Luis Santos 8.5 4.0 1.7 10.0% 21.1% .297 81 123 -0.1 Leo Estrella
John Curtiss 10.0 5.9 1.3 14.4% 24.3% .294 89 113 -0.1 Joel Moore
Aaron Slegers 5.7 2.4 1.9 6.1% 14.5% .292 78 128 -0.1 Chuck Porter
Jason García 5.9 5.1 1.2 12.2% 14.1% .299 78 129 -0.1 Jesse Jefferson
Dalton Moats 7.4 4.3 1.6 10.5% 18.2% .297 80 124 -0.3 Danny Zell
Kenny Rosenberg 6.7 5.0 1.5 12.1% 16.1% .301 75 132 -0.4 Matt Coenen
Mike Franco 8.5 5.5 1.6 13.3% 20.4% .299 77 130 -0.4 Ed Sprague
Blake Bivens 5.3 6.4 1.2 14.8% 12.3% .298 72 139 -0.5 Mike Schultz
Jhonleider Salinas 8.0 7.5 1.7 17.1% 18.1% .297 68 147 -0.9 Lloyd Allen
Angel German 9.0 8.4 1.6 18.9% 20.3% .298 67 150 -1.0 Jeff Kennard

Players are listed with their most recent teams wherever possible. This includes players who are unsigned, players who will miss 2020 due to injury, and players who were released in 2019. So yes, if you see Joe Schmoe, who quit baseball back in June to form a ska-cowpunk Luxembourgian bubblegum pop-death metal band, he’s still listed here intentionally.

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in the full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR.

ZiPS is agnostic about future playing time by design. For more information about ZiPS, please refer to this article.

We hoped you liked reading 2020 ZiPS Projections: Tampa Bay Rays by Dan Szymborski!

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Dan Szymborski is a senior writer for FanGraphs and the developer of the ZiPS projection system. He was a writer for ESPN.com from 2010-2018, a regular guest on a number of radio shows and podcasts, and a voting BBWAA member. He also maintains a terrible Twitter account at @DSzymborski.

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stevensl
Member
stevensl

The “Wander is coming” text in the top left corner of the ZIPS graphic made my day.

stonepie
Member
stonepie

1.7 WAR at his age and PA is absurdly good

stevensl
Member
stevensl

My thoughts exactly. For a player who has never played above A+, that’s an amazing projection.

Mitch
Member
Mitch

Between the 80 FV, the projections, the comp (Barry Larkin!), and the graphic above, it’s hard not to get ridiculously excited about Wander. Hoping injuries stay away and he has a long career.