2022 ZiPS Projections: Cleveland Guardians

After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for a decade. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Cleveland Guardians.

Batters

The overlying theme here is a state of averageness, and that’s not so bad. For a number of years, Cleveland’s outfield situation has been rather bleak, generally toward the bottom of the league, with little investment to make it better. This is the first time in a while that ZiPS sees some hope there. No, the Guardians didn’t pull a 180 and sign Starling Marte and Michael Conforto, but the likely players manning the outfield have better projections than most of those used out there in recent years. The most notable are Myles Straw and Steven Kwan, both of whom get projections that, in an entire season, put them a skosh above average. ZiPS doesn’t think they likely get any surprise star performances, but it’s a better situation.

The two likely meaningful breakouts in the roster are Nolan Jones and George Valera. ZiPS is happy with the latter’s entrance into the high minors, but there is concern about the former; that ceiling gets a lot lower if he doesn’t improve on 2021 and an unexciting .787 OPS for Triple-A Columbus. One can’t blame the ankle injury that ended Jones’ season, either, which was significant enough that he couldn’t play through it.

The middle infield is a similar story as the outfield. ZiPS sees more upside remaining for Andrés Giménez, and Amed Rosario is far from a problem. First base is a weak spot, with the computer holding out little hope for Bobby Bradley. It was a lot easier to excuse his underwhelming numbers when he was 22, but he’ll be 26 next season, and he didn’t even hit Triple-A pitchers all that convincingly last year. Speaking of players with offense that displeased ZiPS, let’s just say “Austin Hedges” and leave it there.

I was quite surprised to see a very aggressive projection for Richie Palacios, but Steamer appears to be on board here as well. Add in Gabriel Arias, and Cleveland actually may have some middle infield surplus they can trade to upgrade elsewhere.

José Ramírez is, of course, José Ramírez. After two calendar years of MVP-type numbers, I think we can safely stop worrying about that ugly first half of 2019. He is the best thing about the Guardians’ offense, and even if he’s at the age where there’s probably not another gear remaining, that would be kind of greedy.

Pitchers

Shane Bieber didn’t win a second AL Cy Young award, but he was in the hunt until shoulder pain cost him half a season. Luckily, there was no serious damage at the time, but with Cleveland falling out of playoff contention when the White Sox pulled away for good, there thankfully wasn’t any need to push his return too quickly; he came back in September, but the team was rightfully very conservative about his use. He’s the José Ramírez of the pitching staff, the shining light in the field of averageness.

ZiPS and Steamer differ on Cal Quantrill, with ZiPS the more optimistic this time, pegging Q as a solid No. 2 starter behind Bieber. The rest of the rotation is generally unimpressive but respectable, with a lot of options in case of emergency. After Zach Plesac, Triston McKenzie, and Aaron Civale, ZiPS sees five or six options that wouldn’t entirely fall on their face. It’s most intrigued by Peyton Battenfield, a 2019 draftee out of Oklahoma State who didn’t get significant professional time until this year thanks to the “not-so-fun size” 2020 season. He shot up very quickly through the minors, and if he had more professional time to look at, ZiPS would be even more optimistic than it is.

Like the rest of the team, the bullpen is middle-of-the-pack, with two big highlights at the top. ZiPS is all-in on Emmanuel Clase, and he is likely to have one of the (if not the) best ERA+ projections for any pitcher this year; last year’s was Aroldis Chapman at 170. ZiPS isn’t quite as ecstatic about James Karinchak, but that’s near the practical ceiling of what you can expect from a pitcher who walks five or six batters per nine innings. If he cuts off a walk or two, his upside is frightening.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here.

Players are listed with their most recent teams wherever possible. This includes players who are unsigned, players who will miss 2022 due to injury, and players who were released in 2021. So yes, if you see Joe Schmoe, who quit baseball back in August to form a big band orchestra that only plays nu-metal versions of baroque cantatas, he’s still listed here intentionally. ZiPS is assuming a league with an ERA of 4.36, similar to the post-June substance-enforcement environment.

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR, which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those that appear in the full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR. ZiPS is assuming that the designated hitter will continue in force in 2022.

ZiPS is agnostic about future playing time by design. For more information about ZiPS, please refer to this article, or get angry at Dan on Twitter.