2023 Positional Power Rankings: First Base

Even while experiencing something of an identity crisis after an abrupt departure from the only professional organization he’d ever known, fresh off a championship, Freeman didn’t just remain Steady Freddie, he had the best full season of his career in terms of wRC+ (157) and WAR (7.1). While leading the NL in plate appearances for the second season in a row (708) — serious steadiness points for that — he also led the senior circuit in hits (199), doubles (47) and OPB (.407), placed second in batting average (.325) and wRC+, third in WAR, and seventh in SLG (.511); on the subject of that last stat, he joined Nolan Arenado, José Ramírez, and Jose Altuve as the season’s only players to slug .500 and strike out less than 15% of the time (14.4%). As ever, he continued to hit the ball hard, though his 10.4% barrel rate was his lowest since 2018. Hey, we had to find some nit to pick. Thankfully, he’s already back in action after a mild hamstring strain during the WBC.

After playing a career-high 122 games at first base in 2021 — a season that ended with him tearing his UCL – Muncy played just five innings at the spot in ’22, with more games at third (84) than second (31) or DH (25). His overall numbers were lousy in the wake of his injury (which wasn’t surgically repaired), but he did hit .230/.340/.451 (125 wRC+) in the second half. He’ll primarily man third in 2023.

Goldschmidt neared the end of August leading the NL in all three slash categories, with a shot at the traditional Triple Crown as well. But after a September slump, only his .578 SLG and 177 wRC+ came out on top; his .404 OBP and 115 RBI both ranked second, his .317 batting average and 7.1 WAR third (the latter tied with Freeman), his 35 homers fifth. Still, he made a strong enough impression to win NL MVP honors. He had more success than at any other point in the Statcast era when it came to handling pitches on the inner third of the plate, hitting for a .363 AVG/.782 SLG on those offerings. It’s worth noting that he was far ahead of his .261 xBA and .482 xSLG; his differentials both led the league, and his 52-point wOBA-xwOBA differential led the majors — all worth bearing in mind as the 35-year-old star tries to follow up a career year.

As rookies, both Donovan and Yepez made notable contributions to the Cardinals last year; the former is defensively adept enough that he spent time at every position besides catcher and center field, while the latter is a DH candidate who coincidentally owns a few gloves.

Guerrero didn’t come close to matching his elite 2021 season, hitting a comparatively modest .274/.339/.480 (132 wRC+) with 32 homers and 2.8 WAR. His slugging percentage against four-seamers dropped from .794 to .586, his Statcast run value on those pitches from 32 to seven. By his own admission he was “too anxious” trying to recreate his near-MVP 2021 season, and needs to improve his pitch selection, an observation backed by his increased tendency to chase (34.2%, up six points) and a significant decrease in his quality of contact, producing a 52.1% groundball rate; his average exit velo fell from 95.1 mph to 92.8, his barrel rate from 15.1% to 11.2%, his xSLG from .590 to .462, and his xwOBA from .417 to .348. At 24 years old, he’s got a great shot at bouncing back.

Belt, who turns 35 on April 20, is now a Blue Jay after a 12-season run with the Giants that ended on a down note. Playing just 78 games interspersed between three trips to the injured list (two for right knee inflammation), he hit a dismal .213/.326/.350 (96 wRC+); all but the OBP were career worsts, as was his 27.2% strikeout rate. Moving to a park that’s much more favorable to lefties should help, but as he’s averaged just 111 games per 162 since 2017, staying on the field could be a challenge.

Tasked with replacing the popular Freeman — and in rather shocking fashion, via a blockbuster trade and an eight-year, $168 million extension before Freddie was ready to find a new home — Olson got off to a hot start last year. He hit for a 138 wRC+ (.263/.373/.484) through the end of May, but managed just a 111 wRC+ (.230/.303/.474) the rest of the way. He may have gotten homer-happy; after hitting just six (but 23 doubles) through those first two months, he hit 28 over the final four. His chase rate over the longer span was notably higher (35.4% to 27.1%), and his strikeout rate edged upwards, but he did hit the ball harder (93.5 mph to 91.5 in average exit velo, 14.6% vs. 11% in barrel rate, 52.5% vs. 47.1% in hard-hit rate). Olson called his September slump the worst of his career, but it wasn’t much worse than his 2020 season, which was about twice as long; he bounced back from that with a career-best campaign. He’ll probably be fine.

Luplow and d’Arnaud both have fewer than 150 innings of major league experience at first base; the former is a lefty-masher who hasn’t done much lefty-mashing lately, the latter a catcher coming off a career-best 3.9 WAR who was suddenly displaced by the Sean Murphy trade.

Alonso had another monster season, placing second in the league in homers (40) while leading in RBI (135) and posting a 143 wRC+, one point shy of the career high from his 2019 rookie season. By his own standards, he didn’t hit the ball tremendously hard, setting career lows in average exit velocity (89.8 mph) and barrel rate (12.3%) while posting an xSLG of “only” .489; of course, those last two numbers still place him in the 86th and 93rd percentiles, respectively. One interesting aspect of his performance is that while he swung (49.9%) and chased more than ever (36%), he nonetheless set a career low with an 18.7% strikeout rate, down from 26.4% as a rookie; he’s particularly whiffing less against fastballs. That would seem to bode well for the future.

After returning from three seasons in the KBO, Ruf hit for an impressive 142 wRC+ with 21 homers in 412 PA with the Giants in 2020-21, but the honeymoon ended last year as he sank to an 89 wRC+, with a homerless 7-for-66 showing after being acquired by the Mets. His performance against breaking balls crashed to a .108 AVG/.235 SLG. He won’t last long in Queens if he can’t turn it around.

Just a year ago, Walker (and company) ranked 25th on this list with a projected 0.8 WAR, but he demolished that projection with a career-best season, producing 4.1 WAR with 36 homers and a 122 wRC+ — that in his age-31 campaign. He fueled that breakout by making mechanical changes and adopting a more disciplined approach; his nine-point drop in swing rate (to 44.7%) led the majors, and he trimmed five points off his chase rate (to 27.2%) and over four points off his strikeout rate (to 19.6%) while bumping up his walk rate nearly two points (to 10.3%) and adding over five points to his barrel rate (to 11.5%). Bolstering his impressive advance was stellar work at first base; his 17 DRS, 11 RAA, and 5.5 UZR all led the majors among first basemen, and he was rewarded with a Gold Glove.

Between Walker solidifying his hold on the position and Smith missing two and a half months due to a right wrist fracture and ligament damage, the latter dropped from 54 games at first base in 2021 to 10 last year. He hit for just an 87 wRC+, his third straight season below 100, so another infielder might get a crack if Walker needs a fill-in.

Rizzo had his best season since 2019 in terms of wRC+ (132, via a .224/.338/.480 line) and WAR (2.4). He gave the Yankees something they had been missing, as his 32 homers were the most by a pinstriped lefty since 2012, and matched his career high. He had some help, in that 16 of his 19 homers at Yankee Stadium were in the direction of the short porch in right field, but his Statcast-era high in barrel rate (10.9%) and near-high in hard-hit rate (40.7%) meant his rebound wasn’t entirely about home cooking. As for that low batting average, it owed a lot to infield shifts, which cut into his BABIP; his .216 mark was the AL’s second-lowest, and it’s fair to think he could pick up some hits thanks to the anti-shift rules. It’s also worth bearing in mind that he’s apt to miss time here and there due to bouts of back spasms; last year such woes limited him to 130 games.

After stellar work for the Yankees in 2019-20, LeMahieu was putting together a solid comeback after a mediocre ’21, hitting .279/.381/.417 (134 wRC+) and playing at least 30 games at first, second, and third before being sidelined in mid-August by what was eventually diagnosed as a fracture in his right foot. He finished with a 116 wRC+ after limping through the final quarter of the season but has shown he’s healthy this spring.

After a solid showing in 2021, Lowe enjoyed quite the breakout in his age-26 season, hitting .302/.358/.492 with 27 homers and a 143 wRC+, the last of which led all AL first base regulars, trailed only Goldschmidt and Freeman, and tied Alonso. The key for him — and a general reminder that there’s more than one way to skin a cat — was a more aggressive approach, as he had the majors’ second-highest swing rate increase (up 7.5 points to 52.2%) and fifth-highest chase rate increase (up eight points to 34.9%) yet shaved his strikeout rate (down 2.4 points to 22.8%). His average exit velocity, barrel and hard-hit rates barely budged, but because he boosted his pull rate and his fly ball rate, he raised his xBA (up 39 points to .275) and xSLG (up 58 points to .459). Beyond that, it’s worth noting that he trailed all major league first basemen in both DRS (-9) and RAA (-8), which took a considerable bite out of his value.

Lowe’s 138 wRC+ against southpaws in 2021-22 is tied with Olson for third among all lefty hitters, behind only Yordan Alvarez and Rizzo, obviating the need for a platoon partner. Garver is the backup option who qualifies as a lefty-masher for those days when Lowe needs a breather, while Miller offers positional flexibility, giving manager Bruce Bochy options for late-inning maneuvering.

France made his first All-Star team on the strength of a .308/.376/.470 (148 wRC+) first half, but a June 23 collision at first base had lingering effects on his left elbow and wrist; he altered his swing to compensate but sank to .229/.287/.390 (96 wRC+) in the second half. He finished with meager batted-ball stats, as his 87.6 mph average exit velo, 5.4% barrel rate, and 36.7% hard-hit rate all ranked below the 30th percentile; while his .398 xSLG was in the 49th percentile, it was still decidedly un-firstbasemanlike, the third-lowest among regulars at the position. Still, while his 126 wRC+ and career-high 20 homers were solid contributions to the Mariners’ offense, he is capable of better.

After a 2021 season wrecked by a hip flexor strain, White played in just 28 games last year, all at Triple-A, after undergoing spring surgery to repair a sports hernia and then experiencing multiple setbacks in his rehab. Now 27 years old, he’s still trying to dig his way out of a .165/.235/.308 start to his major league career, albeit in just 306 PA. La Stella, a productive hitter for most of the 2016–20 span, plummeted below replacement level last year and has been battling right (throwing) shoulder irritation this spring.

Though his 30 homers and 2.2 WAR were both his highest totals since 2018, Hoskins did not have a banner year, scuffling during both April and September en route to a .246/.332/.462 (122 wRC+) line. Unlike in 2020 and ’21, when he missed about one-third of the season due to injuries, he was healthy enough to play in 156 games, though as spring training got underway, he revealed that he played the final two months of the season with a meniscus tear in his right knee and had it surgically cleaned up in December. As ever, defense (-5 RAA) drained some of his value, but in a lineup with Nick Castellanos and assorted other offending fielders, he doesn’t have anything close to first dibs on DHing.

Speaking of which, Bohm’s a bad third baseman who has dabbled at first, but unless he can recover his 2020 form, he doesn’t have the bat to carry the position if a move were ever to occur. Hall has power, as his nine homers and .522 SLG in 142 PA attest, but with a 31% strikeout rate and 3.5% walk rate to go with that, he’s going to have to do better job of controlling the strike zone.

After nine years on the South Side of Chicago, Abreu signed a three-year deal to replace Yuli Gurriel in Houston, thus filling the team’s biggest weakness besides catcher. He’s coming off a strong campaign despite a drop from 30 homers to 15, having hit .304/.378/.446; he placed fifth in the AL in both AVG and OBP, and 12th with a 137 wRC+. He hit the ball very hard, if on the ground a bit too often for a 35-year-old slowpoke; his average exit velocity, hard-hit rate, and x-stats all placed in the 92nd percentile or above, but his 9.5% barrel rate was in just the 63rd percentile. One aspect of note about his season was that he trimmed his strikeout rate from 21.7% to a career-low 16.2%, with his swinging strike rate falling from 12.1% to 9.8% as well; he cut his whiff rate against every type of pitch except changeups, though he did struggle against fastballs once contact is accounted for, dropping from nine runs above average to nine below according to Statcast.

Hensley is a 6-foot-6 utilityman with good plate discipline who’s coming off a .298/.420/.478 season with a 17.9% walk rate in Triple-A and a 34-PA cup of coffee in Houston. Matijevic is a lefty-swinging first base/DH with a below-average hit tool and a fringy approach but the potential to provide big power off the bench. Alvarez has worked out at first base but hasn’t played the position in a game since the 2017 Arizona Fall League.

The addition of Xander Bogaerts has bumped Ha-Seong Kim 김하성 to second base and Cronenworth to first, a position he’s played in 54 major league games thus far. While his defense there should be fine, perhaps even plus, his offense needs — and projects to receive — a boost over last year’s .239/.332/.390 (109 wRC+). He’s got decent plate discipline, raw power and speed, and he can hold his own against lefties, but his advanced and Statcast numbers have been trending downward since his 2020 debut; his average exit velocity, barrel and hard-hit rates were all in the 29th percentile or lower, and both his .221 xBA and .356 xSLG were in the 22nd percentile. With his groundball rate decreasing from 45.5% as a rookie to 35.4% last year, it’s a reminder that the launch angle revolution isn’t for everybody.

Carpenter, on the other hand, reworked his swing after a two-year slide into oblivion and hit a jaw-dropping .305/.412/.727 (217 wRC+) with 15 homers in 154 PA for the Yankees before a broken left foot ended his regular season in early August. He won’t have Yankee Stadium’s short porch to work with, but he could provide enough punch to complement Cronenworth. Dixon, a utility guy who’s torn up Triple-A, has never hit a lick at the major league level and may not stick long, but maybe Cruz, who has seven professional innings (all from 2021) at first, will get another look there.

If Abreu’s departure from Chicago does nothing more than get Vaughn out of the outfield, it would be worth over a win based on last year’s -14 DRS and -14 RAA in just 645 innings at the two corners. Putting him at first base offsets that because he was a few runs in the red in a smaller slice of playing time; sad to say, he was the majors’ least valuable player in terms of fielding plus positional adjustment (-26.7 runs). The good news is that Vaughn can hit, and while last year’s .271/.321/.429 line (113 wRC+) was unremarkable, his 90.8 mph average exit velo and 48.4% hard-hit rate forecast well enough in a hitter-friendly park for Vaughn to be a breakout candidate according to ZiPS; even his 60th percentile projection (.276/.345/.500) is pretty meaty. A recent bout of lower back soreness bears watching.

At 6-foot-5 and 230 pounds, Sheets is an even bigger boy than Vaughn, with 70-grade power and brutal defensive numbers (-8 DRS, -5 RAAA in 646 innings in right field in 2022). After a promising 2021 debut, his quality of contact and plate discipline both dropped off considerably en route to a .241/.295/.411 (100 wRC+) line; his 6.5% barrel rate placed in the 37th percentile, his .359 xSLG in the 26th.

Díaz played just 17 games at first last year (down from 81 the year before), but between his increasingly poor metrics at the hot corner (-14 DRS, -6 RAA in 102 games), the team’s depth at the spot, and the trade of Ji-Man Choi, he’s slated to play a lot more first this year. Though his ratio of biceps circumference to home run total remains high — he went yard just nine times last year — he had his best offensive season in terms of wRC+ (146, via a .296/.401/.423 line) and WAR (3.8), not to mention hard-hit rate (48.6%). He ranked fifth in the majors in OBP, and only Juan Soto had a larger gap between his walk and strikeout rates than Díaz’s 3.2% (14% and 10.8%, respectively).

Even with Choi gone, the Rays do not lack for alternatives to Díaz. Last year Ramírez (32 games) and Paredes (29) both played there more than Díaz, but both are righties, while Aranda, Raley, and Lowe are lefties. Aranda struggled in 87 PA last year but is a 50-FV, positionless type whom the team could try to hide at second and give Lowe more reps at first base. Paredes and even prospect Curtis Mead could fit into the game of moving parts as well.

Mountcastle’s .250/.305/.423 (106 wRC+) line was nothing to write home about, but the 86-point gap between his slugging percentage and .509 xSLG was the majors’ largest, and likewise the 46-point gap between his wOBA and xwOBA (.316 and .262, respectively). He barreled the ball at an impressive 15% clip (94th percentile) and was among the top seven in gains to his exit velocity, hard-hit rate, xBA, and xwOBA. Why did his actual numbers fall so short? Moving the Oriole Park left field wall back 26.5 feet and raising it six feet took a bite out of the righty-swinging slugger’s production. He did show increased patience and plate discipline as the year went on, with a walk rate that improved from 5.1% to 9.4% from the first half to second and a chase rate that dropped from 44.4% to 37%. He played solid defense at first base as well. He’s not a bad choice for a breakout candidate.

McCann is a lousy hitter even for a catcher and unlikely to provide enough punch to justify playing first base. Díaz has an excellent glove, but hasn’t hit a lick in parts of three seasons totaling 343 PA, striking out 28.9% of the time to go with a 54 wRC+. O’Hearn is still trying to recapture his small-sample 2018 rookie numbers but has just a 68 wRC+ over the past four seasons. Santander’s getting work at first this spring and will easily outhit the other backups, though the O’s outfield depth doesn’t offer a strong addition in a game of musical chairs.

Tellez hammered 35 homers last year, placed in the 86th percentile or above in exit velo, barrel rate, and xSLG, and improved his plate discipline and swinging strike rates, but he suffered against the shift as much as just about anybody. Of the 34 lefty hitters with at least 250 balls in play against traditional shifts, he had the lowest BABIP (.210) and wRC+ (28); only by virtue of volume (428 PA vs. 353) did Corey Seager have a lower wRAA than Tellez’s in such a context (-31 runs vs. -28.9). In that light, the new rules should help the slugger, and so should his increased tendency to pull the ball in the air; his 49 pulled fly balls exceeded his 2019-21 total and produced 21 homers.

Hiura earned his largest share of playing time since his 2019 rookie season (266 PA) by rebounding from two dismal years via a .226/.316/.449 (116 wRC+) line. He hits the ball very hard (15.3% barrel rate) but contact is a massive problem; no player with at least 250 PA exceeded his 41.7% strikeout rate. The righty swinger’s failure to hit lefties (64 wRC+ career) may swing the backup/platoon battle towards Voit, who just pushed back his opt-out date. He’s still looking to recapture the form that helped him to a .541 SLG and 144 wRC+ from 2018-20; he can pound fastballs but has increasingly struggled against curves and changeups.

Despite a slow start to his season in the wake of a gruesome 2021 right ankle injury — fracture, dislocation, torn ligaments, yikes — Naylor finally put together a season that showed off his capabilities, batting .256/.319/.452 (117 wRC+) with 20 homers in 498 PA. Which isn’t to say that it was flawless, given that he chased too many pitches outside the zone, hit the ball on the ground too often, had trouble with the curve, and was a complete pushover against lefties (.173/.276/.236 in 111 PA). The switch-hitting Bell is stronger against righties than lefties (120 wRC+ to 105 in terms of career numbers, though just 117 to 112 since 2020), and even more groundball-prone than Nayor — his 50.4% ranked 12th among all qualifiers — but even in a platoon capacity, he’d be an upgrade. He figures to get more chances at DH as well, and could push Naylor back to the outfield if his ankle allows.

Arias is a shortstop prospect who spotted at all four infield positions during his 16-game cup of coffee and then was pressed into postseason duty at first base. He has a 30-grade hit tool but does have a knack for hard contact. He’s learning the outfield this spring as well and is on track for a superutility role.

After tearing up Double-A in late 2021 and Triple-A in early ’22, Pasquantino was freed from his minor league apprenticeship and raked at a .295/.383/.450 clip in 298 PA after debuting in the majors in late June. He made strong contact (91.2 mph average exit velo, .476 xSLG) and lots of it, not only striking out just 11.4% of the time but walking 11.7%, making him one of just eight players with at least 250 PA and more walks than strikeouts. With 20-grade speed and defensive limitations, his bat has to do all the work, but he profiles as a pretty fun, disciplined masher the likes of which the Royals haven’t had since Billy Butler’s heyday.

A 2017 first-round pick, Pratto tore up the high minors in ’21 but took a step back at Triple-A Omaha in ’22 and hit just .184/.271/.386 in 182 PA during a two month stint in the majors. Despite a healthy 12.5% barrel rate, he didn’t otherwise make much hard contact, as his 86 mph average exit velo and .322 xSLG attest. He didn’t make much contact, period, given his 36.3% strikeout rate, with whiff rates of 48% on breaking balls and 46.4% on offspeed pitches. He’s an excellent defender, and if he can shore up his weaknesses, he could bump Pasquantino to DH. Dozier will always have that 2019 breakout, but he has hit for an 88 wRC+ with –1.3 WAR since then.

Casas missed two months with a high ankle sprain and went on to hit a very odd-looking .197/.358/.408 in his 97-PA major league debut last year, but even that was good for a 120 wRC+. At 6-foot-4 and 252 pounds, you’d figure he can hit the ball a long way and you’d be right, as he has 70-grade raw power, though there’s some question about his contact skills. He’s a very disciplined hitter despite a lack of experience due to injuries and the pandemic, which together have limited him to 284 minor league games since being drafted in 2018. He’ll likely be the regular here, with a platoon partner against tough lefties and some time at DH as well.

The righty-swinging Dalbec could be that platoon partner, though he fell off to a .215/.283/.369 (80 wRC+) showing last year while striking out a third of the time. Turner only has a smattering of experience at first (39 games, but just one since 2015) but should be in the mix there as well, though most of his work will be at DH; through his ups and down and amid his injuries, he can still rake.

Before being traded to the Pirates in November, Choi had another solid season in a platoon capacity for the Rays, hitting .233/.341/.388 (116 wRC+). He’s an extremely disciplined hitter who consistently hits the ball hard; via Statcast, his 19.9% chase rate placed in the 96th percentile, with his average exit velocity, barrel and hard-hit rates ranging from the 84th to 93rd percentiles. Contrary to what his low batting average, lefty pull profile, and lack of speed might suggest, he fared very well against infield shifts, with a .305 BABIP in 197 PA.

Santana split last season between the Royals and Mariners, just clearing both the Mendoza Line and a league-average wRC+ (.202/.316/.376, 102 wRC+ overall). While his overall production the past few years is well below what it was in his heyday, his 111 wRC+ in 398 PA against lefties from 2020-22 (compared to 85 against righties) casts him as a good platoon complement to Choi. Joe couldn’t replicate his small-sample magic in Colorado last year, slipping from a 115 wRC+ in 211 PA in 2021 to an 85 in 467 PA in ’22. He hit the ball on the ground far more often than in 2021, and his barrel rate fell by more than half, from 9.9% to 4.5%.

Kirilloff entered 2021 ranked 16th on our Top 100 Prospects list, but right wrist woes have limited him to 101 games in the past two seasons, each of which ended prematurely due to surgeries, and it’s tough to get a read on where he stands given those injuries. In 2022, he hit just .250/.290/.361 (86 wRC+) and was worth -0.6 WAR before undergoing surgery to shorten his ulnar bone. He’s certainly capable of better, but at this writing, he has yet to make his spring debut and might not be ready to start the season.

Solano has hit .301/.350/.421 in 1,079 PA of part-time work over the past four years, his ages 31-34 seasons. He made his first major league appearances at first base last year but is capable of competently playing more difficult infield positions. Miranda hit .268/.325/.426 (117 wRC+) as a rookie in 2022 while splitting time between first and third, neither of which he played well. Gallo is trying to iron out mechanical flaws and rebound from an abysmal stretch in New York and Los Angeles. He’s played just one inning of first base since 2018 and remains an exceptional outfielder.

Even while making trips to the injured list for COVID-19, a right wrist contusion, a concussion, and a fractured metacarpal, Cooper set a career high with 119 games. Due in part to his struggles against lefties and his so-so defense, he delivered just 1.4 WAR, and while he barreled the ball at a respectable 10.8% clip, he fell 21 points short of his xSLG en route to a modest .261/.337/.415 (115 wRC+) line.

The Marlins have have other options here. Gurriel, who just signed a minor league deal in early March, went from winning the AL batting title with a 3.3-WAR season at age 37 to hitting .242/.288/.360 with -0.9 WAR at 38. He’s bounced back from replacement level before, but time isn’t on on his side. Reigning AL batting champion Luis Arraez, who was acquired from the Twins in the Pablo López trade, is capable of playing second or third, but with the Marlins’ glut of middle infielders, he might land here even though it’s not the best use of his skills. Fortes hit for a 100 wRC+ as a rookie backup catcher; in some corollary of Nichols’ Law, his questionable defense apparently makes him a first base candidate. Encarnacion has plus power but lacks a position (quoth THE BOARD, “[H]e is like a Choose Your Own Adventure book in the outfield”) or the ability to make consistent contact.

Walsh hit just .215/.269/.374 last year before going under the knife in early September to correct thoracic outlet syndrome; he had first noticed symptoms in 2019 but had previously managed to thrive, hitting a combined .280/.338/.531 (130 wRC+) while totaling 5.4 WAR in ’20-21 and even making the AL All-Star team in the latter year. Given that he’s a lefty with above-average tendencies to pull the ball and to hit grounders, you might think he was losing a lot of hits to the shift, but his .274 BABIP against traditional shifts was right at league average. Where he really struggled was in two-strike counts, managing just a 13 wRC+ (.140/.186/.228) in that context compared to 63 (.207/.258/.354) before, which goosed his strikeout rate to 30.4%.

Walsh will need a platoon partner, which is where newcomers Urshela and Drury come in. Both are coming off very solid seasons with the stick, with the former hitting .285/.338/.429 (119 wRC+) with 13 homers and the latter breaking out to hit .263/.320/.492 (123 wRC+) with 28 homers. Urshela figures to assume a utility role, while Drury should get the bulk of the reps at second base.

The post-Belt plan at first base — a platoon between the lefty-swinging Wade and the righty-swinging Davis — doesn’t exactly jump off the page. Wade was especially clutch for the 107-win Giants in 2021, but he battled left knee inflammation and couldn’t that regain form, hitting just .207/.305/.359 in 251 PA in 2022; his wRC+ dropped from 116 to 93. Even with a more selective approach via which he improved his walk rate and cut his strikeout rate, he didn’t hit the ball nearly as hard, though he also fell 48 points shy of his .407 xSLG.

Davis fell 53 points short of his own .471 xSLG while hitting a respectable .248/.340/.418 (119 wRC+) mainly while DHing. His 92.4 mph average exit velocity, 16.2% barrel rate, and 56.1% hard-hit rate all placed in the 95th percentile or better, but a 33.4% strikeout rate limited the amount of contact he actually made — and that’s even while keeping his chase rate below 30%; he’s got some holes in his swing, particularly on the outer third. He’s shown a negligible platoon split over the course of his career and will likely DH as well, particularly if he doesn’t take to first base, where he has just 200.2 innings of experience, not to mention a trail of negative defensive metrics that runs through third base and left field. Flores’s defense is better suited to first base than other infield positions while offering a slightly-above-average bat (103 wRC+ in 2022, 109 in three seasons with the Giants). Pederson has been experimenting at first this spring and could find himself in the mix here as well.

The first pick of the 2020 draft struggled mightily in his first taste of the majors, making the team on Opening Day but getting a seven-week Triple-A refresher course after the All-Star break. He hit just .203/.285/.319 (76 wRC+) with eight homers — never once managing a calendar month with a 100 wRC+ — and -1.0 WAR. Some small positives: He had his best month upon returning from Toledo in September (.219/.292/.385, 95 wRC+), his overall strikeout and walk rates were manageable (9.2% and 24.5%), and his exit velocity, barrel and hard-hit rates ranged from the 56th to 78th percentile. On the other hand, he was utterly helpless against offspeed stuff (.093 AVG/.116 SLG) and didn’t fare much better against four-seamers (.175 AVG/.292 SLG) or really any pitch type besides sinkers. He’s hitting the ball hard this spring, will play in a more favorably configured ballpark this year, and he’s just 23, so it’s too early to give up, but an overnight sensation Torkelson is not.

Vierling, likely the team’s fourth outfielder, scuffled in his rookie season with the Phillies (.246/.297/.351, 81 wRC+) and has only a smattering of experience at first base. Cabrera’s got the dual 3,000-hit and 500-homer milestones that will one day put him in Cooperstown, but he’s also netted -2.1 WAR since the start of 2017 and there’s no evidence he’s found the fountain of youth.

A late bloomer who was a 28-year-old rookie in 2021, Brown can play both outfield corners in addition to manning the long half of a first base platoon. He counts as the A’s biggest power-speed threat, as he hit a team-high 25 homers last year and tied for the lead with 11 steals; his 117 wRC+ (.230/.305/.444) is the top returning mark with the trade of Sean Murphy. Brown’s 13% barrel rate placed in the 90th percentile, and his x-stats in the 70s and 80s, but he’s got contact issues (26.5% strikeout rate) and struggles with borderline pitches, as his -21 swing/take runs in the shadow zone attest.

Aguilar fared poorly (.235/.281/.379, 86 wRC+) in a season split between the Marlins and Orioles; his -0.4 WAR marked it as his third season out of four within a hair of replacement level. He didn’t hit lefties well last year, but for his career his splits are level and slightly above average, which is more than can be said for Brown and his 52 wRC+ against southpaws. Noda is a lefty-swinging 26-year-old Rule 5 pick from the Dodgers. He slashed .259/.395/.474 with 25 homers and a 16% walk rate but also a 28.2% strikeout rate. With the ability to play the outfield and, frankly, not much reason not to keep him given where the A’s are competitively, he could stick.

Smith washed out after repeated ups and downs with the Mets; last year, he was demoted at the end of May, sprained his ankle in mid-July after being recalled, and had his fate sealed when the team traded for Daniel Vogelbach; he was non-tendered after the season. He hit just .194/.276/.284 (67 wRC+) even while lowering his chase rate over nine points to 28.2%. At 27 years old and with -0.2 net WAR in 1,373 PA, he’s earned the dreaded Quad-A tag.

Maybe a change of scenery from beyond the never-ending drama in Queens will help Smith, but quite frankly Meneses is far more interesting and promising. After toiling in the minors since 2011, he arrived to replace the traded Bell in August, homering in his debut and continuing to rake: .324/.367/.563 with 13 homers, a 156 wRC+ and 1.5 WAR in 240 PA. While he did hit the ball hard (91.4 mph average exit velo, 9.9% barrel rate), and slugged .538 or better against fastballs, breaking balls and offspeed pitches (within those, only cutters were a real problem), he was well ahead of his .256 xBA and .457 xSLG. He also showed he has no business in right field. But even with some regression and a DH/1B role, he’s a reason to check in on the Nationals.

The Padres finally cut their losses on Hosmer more than halfway through his eight-year, $144 million deal. Even with a red-hot April (.389/.457/.597), his modus operandi remained the same: lots of contact, few strikeouts, but too many grounders and not enough power. At the deadline he was traded to the Red Sox, for whom he played just 14 games and missed nearly six weeks due to lower back inflammation. He finished at .268/.334/.382 (104 wRC+) and failed to clear 1.0 WAR for the fifth year in a row. After being released by the Red Sox, he’s a Cub, but they’re only paying the minimum salary while the Padres pay the balance of his $13 million.

Mancini will likely see time as Hosmer’s platoon partner in addition to being the primary DH and, in the early going, the regular right fielder until Seiya Suzuki returns from an oblique strain. In terms of results, last year’s .239/.319/.391 (104 wRC+) line was simply a righty version of Hosmer’s production, albeit with fewer grounders, more fly balls, and a gruesome slump after being traded to the Astros; he went 4-for-45 over his final 14 regular season games and 1-for-21 in the playoffs. Scouting note from this spring: He appears to have remembered how to hit.

Mervis, who stands in at 6-foot-4, 225 pounds and is nicknamed “Mash,” homered 36 times and slugged .606 across three levels in 2022. He has plus pull power and as a lefty swinger could be a useful bench piece.

After a reasonably strong first season with the Rockies, Cron declined significantly in 2022 despite hitting 29 homers, one more than in ’21. His .257/.315/.468 (101 wRC+) line represented a 34-point drop in batting average, 60-point drop in on-base percentage, 62-point drop in slugging, and a 26-point drop in wRC+. He chased more bad pitches and took more borderline ones, such that his Statcast swing/take numbers dropped from 15 to 8 in the Chase zone and -8 to -14 in the Shadow zone; his strikeout-to-walk ratio, which was around 2-to-1 in 2021, roughly doubled.

Toglia is a 2019 first-round pick who hit just .216/.275/.378 with a 36.7% strikeout rate in 120 PA last year. Via Eric Longenhagen, he doesn’t project to make enough contact to be a regular first baseman but could be a great off-the-bench weapon as a switch-hitter with plus power and good defense. Moustakas was released by the Reds in January after his second straight bad season; he’ll primarily play third base, with Ryan McMahon moving over to second in Brendan Rodgers‘ absence. Montero came over in the Nolan Arenado trade and struggled in a 53-game big league stint (79 wRC+, 32.4% strikeout rate) but has enough power to merit a longer look; he can play third as well.

Votto enjoyed a nice renaissance in 2021 as he swapped some of his trademark patience for pull-side power and hit 35 homers, one shy of his career high. Last year was a different story, as he sank to .205/.319/.370 (92 wRC+) with 11 homers and -0.9 WAR, all career worsts; if you needed further evidence he was out of whack, his 25.8% strikeout rate and 7.1% infield fly rate offered additional evidence. He did hit .249/.343/.488 (127 wRC+) from June through August after ditching an experimental bat before plunging into a dreadful slump that preceded him shutting down for surgeries to repair tears in both the rotator cuff and biceps of his left shoulder in mid-August. Arbitrary endpoints only get you so far, however. As the 39-year-old future Hall of Famer heads into the final guaranteed year of his contract, we can hope that better health leads to a rebound, or that he at least gets to depart on his own terms.

A bothersome right knee cost Myers two months, and he played just 77 games while hitting a modest .261/.315/.398 (104 wRC+) in the final year of his eight-year run in San Diego. Maybe it was injuries or rust, but he was more prone to chasing than before, and posted his lowest walk rate (7.3%), second-highest strikeout rate (30.1%), and worst xwOBA (.288) of his career. Perhaps the change of scenery will help.